• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard probability

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Artificial Earthquakes Generation in Korean Peninsular using point source model (점지진원 모델을 이용한 한반도내의 인공지진 생성)

  • 권오성;한상환
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2002.04a
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    • pp.214-221
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    • 2002
  • This study introduces a method to generate artificial earthquakes in Korean Peninsular using historical earthquake catalogues and point source model. For this purpose, three earthquake catalogues compiled by different researchers are compared to each other. And epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes are generated based on those catalogues. In generating ground motion accelertation, point source model proposed by Boore and Atkinson was adopted. Parameters of the model for South-Eastern part of Korean Peninsular was proposed by Noh and kn. From the epicenters, magnitudes, and ground motion models, possible earthquakes for 50,000 years are generated. Using these generated earthquakes ground accelrations and uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) having 2%, 5%, and 10% exceedance probability in 50 years are proposed.

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Parameters estimation of the generalized linear failure rate distribution using simulated annealing algorithm

  • Sarhan, Ammar M.;Karawia, A.A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2012
  • Sarhan and Kundu (2009) introduced a new distribution named as the generalized linear failure rate distribution. This distribution generalizes several well known distributions. The probability density function of the generalized linear failure rate distribution can be right skewed or unimodal and its hazard function can be increasing, decreasing or bathtub shaped. This distribution can be used quite effectively to analyze lifetime data in place of linear failure rate, generalized exponential and generalized Rayleigh distributions. In this paper, we apply the simulated annealing algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood point estimates of the parameters of the generalized linear failure rate distribution. Simulated annealing algorithm can not only find the global optimum; it is also less likely to fail because it is a very robust algorithm. The estimators obtained using simulated annealing algorithm have been compared with the corresponding traditional maximum likelihood estimators for their risks.

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Probabilistic Approach for Evaluation of the Fault Activity (확률론적 방법에 의한 단층의 활동도 평가)

  • Chang, Chun-Joong;Choi, Weon-Hack;Yun, Kwan-Hee;Park, Dong-Hee;Im, Chang-Bock
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2006
  • Since early 1990's, several Quaternary faults have been found in the southeastern part of the Korean peninsula with reference to fault activity. Because some of these faults could be considered a capable fault, it is a very delicate matter, which need to be deal with carefully in assessing the seismic hazard. In determining whether or not a faults are capable, because of the low rate of seismicity and insufficient relationship between instrumental macro-seismicity and fault, there has been considerable debate among geologists and geophysicists in Korea. In this study, we discuss the criteria and probabilistic approaches that are used to assess whether or not a fault is seismogenic. And, we preliminarily also suggest the probability of fault activity from the spatial association between faults and earthquake epicenters, fault slip and tectonic stress, and geological evidence for multiple episodes of reactivation.

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Performance Evaluation of Steel Moment Frame Buildings with Different Response Modification Factors (반응수정계수의 영향에 따른 철골조 빌딩의 내진 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Ki-Hak
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.201-208
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    • 2006
  • This study lotuses on the seismic behavior of 3-, 9-, and 20-story steel moment resisting frame (MRF) structures designed in accordance with the 2000 International Building Code using different Response Modification factors (R factors) 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. For a detailed case study, 30 different structures were evaluated for twenty ground motions representing the hazard level which is equal to a 2% probability exceeding in 50 years (2% in 50 years). The results showed that the current R factors provide conservative designs for the 3- and 9-story buildings for the Collapse Prevention performance objective. However, the 20-story buildings designed without using the minimum requirement of spectral acceleration CS prescribed in the IBC 2000 did not satisfy the seismic performance for Collapse Prevention performance.

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Seismic Risk Assessment of Piers Using Fragility Analysis (취약도 분석을 통한 교각의 지진위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Kim, Hyun-Jun;Park, Chang-Kyu;Chung, Young-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.261-268
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    • 2006
  • This study represents results of fragility curve development for 3-span continuous bridge. To research the response of bridge under earthquake excitation, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic analysis. Because of limited number of real time histories from the Korean peninsula, a set of 150 synthetic time histories were generated. Fragility corves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA. Five damage states were defined to express the condition of damage based on the actual experimental damage data of bridge column. As a result of this research, the value of damage probability corresponding to each damage state were determined. This approach may be used in constructing the fragility curves for all of bridge structure and, by extension, in constructing the seismic hazard map.

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Seismic upgrading of structures with different retrofitting methods

  • Guneyisi, Esra Mete;Azez, Ibrahim
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.589-611
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents an analytical study aimed at evaluating the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) retrofitted with different approaches. For this, 3, 6 and 12 storey MRFs having four equal bays of 5 m were selected as the case study models. The models were designed with lateral stiffness insufficient to satisfy code drift and hinge limitations in zones with high seismic hazard. Three different retrofit strategies including traditional diagonal bracing system and energy dissipation devices such as buckling restrained braces and viscoelastic dampers were used for seismic upgrading of the existing structures. In the nonlinear time history analysis, a set of ground motions representative of the design earthquake with 10% exceedance probability in fifty years was taken into consideration. Considering the local and global deformations, the results in terms of inter-storey drift index, global damage index, plastic hinge formations, base shear demand and roof drift time history were compared. It was observed that both buckling-restrained braces and viscoelastic dampers allowed for an efficient reduction in the demands of the upgraded frames as compared to traditional braces.

A System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Cognitive Process of Construction Workers'Unsafe Behaviors (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 건설 작업자의 불안전한 행동의 인지 과정 모델링)

  • Kim, Jinwoo;Lee, Hyunsoo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Nahyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.38-48
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    • 2017
  • Finding causes of workers' unsafe behaviors is important to prevent construction accidents because 80 percent of accidents occur by workers' unsafe behaviors. In this regard, this research aims to investigate possible reasons of workers' unsafe behaviors based on workers' cognitive process model using System dynamics. This study is based on two ways of workers' cognitive process which are in relation to hazard perception and failure of hazard perception. Based on existing literature, causal loops for workers' cognitive process are developed to explain workers' habituation by staying out of accidents, safety learning by experience, failure of hazard perception, and attitude change by accidents. The interactions between the developed loops provide managerial insights to reduce workers' unsafe behaviors from a safety manager's perspective including increasing the probability of workers' hazard perception through knowledge management, maintaining workers' positive attitude toward safety, and controlling first-line supervisors to eliminate workers' unsafe behavior. The research allows us to better understand the causes and solutions of workers' unsafe behaviors in workers' cognitive perspectives.

Risk-Targeted Seismic Performance of Steel Ordinary Concentrically Braced Frames Considering Seismic Hazard (지진재해도를 고려한 철골 보통중심가새골조의 위험도기반 내진성능)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.371-380
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    • 2017
  • The risk-targeted seismic design concept was first included in ASCE/SEI 7-10 to address problems related to the uniform-hazard based seismic concept that has been constructed without explicitly considering probabilistic uncertainties in the collapse capacities of structures. However, this concept is not yet reflected to the current Korean building code(KBC) because of insufficient strong earthquake data occurred at the Korean peninsula and little information on the collapse capacities of structures. This study evaluates the risk-targeted seismic performance of steel ordinary concentrically braced frames(OCBFs). To do this, the collapse capacities of prototype steel OCBFs are assessed with various analysis parameters including building locations, building heights and soil conditions. The seismic hazard curves are developed using an empirical spectral shape prediction model that is capable of reflecting the characteristics of earthquake records. The collapse probabilities of the prototype steel OCBFs located at the Korean major cities are then evaluated using the risk integral concept. As a result, analysis parameters considerably influence the collapse probabilities of steel OCBFs. The collapse probabilities of taller steel OCBFs exceed the target seismic risk of 1 percent in 50 years, which the introduction of the height limitation of steel OCBFs into the future KBC should be considered.

A Study of the Failure Distribution and the Failure Difference by the Stress on the K-1 Tracked Vehicle (K-1전차의 고장분포와 부하에 따른 고장률 차이에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Choi, Seok-Yoon
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is as follows. First, the hazard function on the failure probability density function of the K-1 tracked vehicles can be occurred in the form of the bathtub curve. Second, the failure mode may be different under two different operational situations. The research result shows that the bathtub curve can be fitted in the Weibull distribution, that assumes different shapes according to the specific stage of the system's life cycle. The K-1 tracked vehicle has a relatively high hazard(failure) rate at the time of its first service. The failure rate starts decreasing for a time immediately after it goes into service. After the break-in period, the surviving components have a fairly constant hazard rate. As the K-1 system ages, deterioration of its various parts takes place and the hazard rate starts Increasing. Second, the result shows the failure rate in the harsh operational environment is higher than that in the mild operational environment. In conclusion, the bathtub curve can be logically appropriate in establishing the depot overhaul cycle. Moreover, it is necessary for determining the right time of the depot overhaul to consider not only the age of defense equipment but also the different operational environment.

Integration and Decision Algorithm for Location-Based Road Hazardous Data Collected by Probe Vehicles (프로브 수집 위치기반 도로위험정보 통합 및 판단 알고리즘)

  • Chae, Chandle;Sim, HyeonJeong;Lee, Jonghoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2018
  • As the portable traffic information collection system using probe vehicles spreads, it is becoming possible to collect road hazard information such as portholes, falling objects, and road surface freezing using in-vehicle sensors in addition to existing traffic information. In this study, we developed a integration and decision algorithm that integrates time and space in real time when multiple probe vehicles detect events such as road hazard information based on GPS coordinates. The core function of the algorithm is to determine whether the road hazard information generated at a specific point is the same point from the result of detecting multiple GPS probes with different GPS coordinates, Generating the data, (3) continuously determining whether the generated event data is valid, and (4) ending the event when the road hazard situation ends. For this purpose, the road risk information collected by the probe vehicle was processed in real time to achieve the conditional probability, and the validity of the event was verified by continuously updating the road risk information collected by the probe vehicle. It is considered that the developed hybrid processing algorithm can be applied to probe-based traffic information collection and event information processing such as C-ITS and autonomous driving car in the future.