• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.34-45
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• 2019

Purpose - This study investigates the lead-lag relations between the prices of major commodities imported into Korea and corresponding shipping freight rates. This paper aims to provide implications for cross-market causal relations between related economic segments. Design/Methodology - For economic long-run equilibrium between commodity prices and freights, a Johansen (1988) cointegration test is employed first. Then, Granger (1987) causality tests are performed under the vector error correction model (VECM) framework. Findings - The results indicate that the direction of causality varies by raw materials, which is attributable to different economic mechanisms in the corresponding shipping transportation sectors. In addition, the significance of causality becomes blurred during the post-2008 period. Practical Implication - Corporate managers in commodity trading, steelmaking, power generation, and oil refinery sectors can take advantage of the findings in this study as identifying leading economic indicators can be helpful for decision making in both short- and long-term strategies. Originality/value - This study is the first attempt to analyze the inter-relations between commodity prices and corresponding freight rates focusing on raw material imports of Korea.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.554-566
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 1998년부터 2012년까지 15년간의 16개 시 도 패널자료를 이용하여 자치단체의 세입 세출 등 재정변수들 및 인구, 고령인구비율, 실업률, 부양비 등 비재정변수들과 1인당 GRDP로 정의한 지역경제력 간의 관계를 분석하였다. 구체적으로 그랜저 인과관계 분석을 시행하였고, 지역경제력으로 일 방향 또는 양 방향 인과관계가 존재하는 변수들을 설명변수로 한 회귀분석을 시행한 후 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 변수들에 대해 누적적 영향 유무를 검정하였다. 그 결과 1인당 지방세액, 1인당 사회개발비, 중위연령 등은 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으나 부양비는 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 1인당 보조금, 1인당 지방세액, 1인당 사회개발비, 중위연령 등은 지역경제력에 누적적 영향을 미치고 있다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.265-268
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to analyze the casual relationship among Housing Transaction Index, Jeonse Rental Index and Interest Rate. To analyze the influence of interest rate in more detail, CD Interest rate and Spread are used as variables. Granger Casualty Test is used as a analysis tool, As a result, Spread is the cause variable of the Housing Transaction Index and the Housing Transaction Index is the cause variable of the CD Interest Rate. And also, CD Interest rate influences the Jeonse Rental Index and the Jeonse Rental Index has influence on the other variables.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.280-287
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• 2011

연구의 목적은 서민주거안정정책이 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 이에 대한 실증분석을 실시한 결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 첫째, 그랜저인과관계를 검증한 결과 전 지역의 주택시장은 서민주거안정정책에 영향을 주고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 충격반응은 전 지역에서 부(-)의 반응을 보이며, 서민주거안정정책은 주택시장안정에 어느 정도 기여한 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 로짓회귀분석결과 서민주거안정정책은 노무현 정부의 강남지역을 제외하고 주택시장안정에 상당한 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.69-83
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of 'positive asymmetric price transmission' from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.15-27
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• 2022

Recently, as carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have increased overall and contributed to air pollution, and awareness of environmental degradation has grown. This study examines the impacts and causalities of economic globalization, economic growth, energy consumption, and capital formation on CO₂ emissions in China over the period 1971-2014. The vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test on time-series data are employed to observe the interactions between CO₂ emission, economic globalization, and various economic factors, including economic growth, energy consumption, and capital formation, since China's early stage of globalization. The empirical results indicate the existence of bidirectional causalities from economic growth, gross capital formation, economic globalization, and CO₂ emission to energy consumption, and bidirectional casualty from energy consumption to CO₂ emission relationships in the short run. The findings of this study suggest that indirect bidirectional causalities from economic growth, economic globalization, and capital formation to CO₂ emission through energy consumption are observed. Moreover, economic globalization accelerates CO₂ emission in the short run but decreases it in the long run. To reduce CO₂ emissions, and to ensure sustainable economic growth and economic globalization progress, some crucial energy-saving and energy-efficiency policies, regulatory rules, and laws are recommended.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The study examines stock prices (LOGKSE) and exchange rate (LOGPK)-Pakistani Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar- interactions in Pakistan. This study employs a multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2012 to October 2020. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is no relationship between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market in the long run. In the short-run, stock exchange returns are affected slightly negatively by the changes in the foreign exchange market, but the foreign exchange market does not seem to be affected by the ups and downs of the stock exchange. The VAR model and Granger Causality show that both markets are strongly influenced by their own lagged values rather than by the lagged values of one another and show weak or no correlation between the two markets. Volatility persistence is observed in both the stock and foreign exchange markets, implying that shocks and past period volatility are major drivers of future volatility in both markets. Thus greater uncertainties today will induce panic and consequently generate higher volatility in the future period. This phenomenon has been observed many times on Pakistan Stock Exchange especially. The results have important implications for local international investors in portfolio diversification decisions and risk hedging strategies.

• 서비스연구
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.91-103
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• 2015

본 논문은 한국거래소(KRX)에서 제공한 KT(한국통신)와 SK텔레콤의 현물수익률 및 KT와 SK텔레콤 선물수익률 간의 선도-지연효과를 분석하였다. 분석을 위한 통계분석 기간은 2012년 1월 1일부터 2014년 12월 31일까지이며, 자료는 일별 종가자료 608개를 사용하였고, 분석도구로는 E-Views 6을 이용하여 VAR 모형을 통한 그랜저 인과관계분석(Granger Causality test)과 충격반응분석(Impulse Response Function) 및 분산분해(Variance Decomposition)를 실시하였다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 그랜저 인과관계분석결과 KT선물수익률과 SK텔레콤 선물수익률은 KT현물수익률과 SK텔레콤 현물수익률에 대하여 강한 예측력이 있다는 것으로 추론할 수 있다. 그러나 KT현물수익률과 SK텔레콤 현물수익률은 KT선물수익률과 SK텔레콤 선물수익률에 대한 예측력이 존재하지 않고 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 둘째, 충격반응분석결과 KT선물수익률과 SK텔레콤 선물수익률은 KT현물수익률과 SK텔레콤 현물수익률에 즉각적으로 영향을 미치다 일정시차가 지난 후에 사라지는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 분산분해 분석결과 KT현물수익률과 SK텔레콤 현물수익률의 변화 중에 많은 변화가 KT선물수익률과 SK텔레콤 선물수익률의 변화에 의하여 설명되어짐을 추론할 수 있다. 이러한 분석결과는 개별 주식 현물과 선물을 운용하고 있는 개인투자자 뿐만 아니라 집합투자업자 및 연기금들이 투자정책을 수립하는데 있어서 여러 가지 의미있는 시사점을 제공해 줄 것으로 판단된다. 또한 선물과 옵션시장을 담당하는 한국거래소와 국내외 투자자들이 자산배분정책과 포트폴리오 정책을 수립하는데도 있어서도 유익한 시사점을 제공할 것으로 판단된다.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.198-210
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• 2016

This study firstly aims to estimate a leading-price of Jeju flounders with various price-classes by fish weight and secondly plans to provide policy implications of flounder purchase projects by understanding dynamic changes and interactions among flounder producer price-classes caused by price impulses in the market. This study applies an unit root test for stability of data, uses a Granger causality test to estimate the leading-price among producer prices by fish weight, employs the vector autoregressive model to analyze statistical impacts among t-1 variables used in models, and finally utilizes impulse response analyses and forecast error variance decomposition analyses to understand dynamic changes and interactions among change rates of the producer prices caused by price impulses in the market. The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, KPSS, PP, and ADF tests show that the change rate of Jeju flounder monthly producer prices by fish weight differentiated by logarithm is stable. Secondly, the Granger causality test presents that the change rate of the 1kg flounder producer price strongly leads it of 500g, 700g, and 2kg flounder producer prices respectively. Thirdly, the vector autoregressive model indicates that the change rate of the 1kg producer price in t-1 period statistically, significantly influences it of own weight in t period and also slightly affects price change rates of other weights in t period. Fourthly, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of structural shocks for the change rate of the 1kg producer price are relatively more powerful in its own weight and in other weights than shocks emanating from price change rates of other weights. Fifthly, the variance decomposition analysis points out that the change rate of the 1kg producer price is relatively more influential than it of 500g, 700g, and 2kg producer prices respectively. In conclusion, the change rate of the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price leads the change rates of other ones and Jeju purchase projects need to be targeted to the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price as the purchase project implemented in 2014.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.401-411
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• 2013

변수들 간 인과관계는 시차 회귀방정식을 사용한 초기의 검정법 이후 새로운 통계적 기법이 계속 개발되면서 더욱 다양하고 효율적인 분석이 가능하게 되었지만 오랜 논쟁의 대상인 닭과 달걀 간 선행관계에 대한 검정은 의외로 간과되어왔다. 본 연구에서는 현대적 관점에서 두 변수 간 인과관계를 학문적으로 조명해보기 위해 사용가능한 자료를 이용하여 통계적 검정을 실시해 보았다. 두 변수 간 관계에는 구조적 변화가 발생하지 않았음이 입증되면서 사용한 검정법 모두 수준변수 및 정상변수에서 일관된 검정결과를 보이는 것으로 나타났다.