• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1093-1102
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• 2012

In this paper, we predicted the interest spread using the VAR (vector autoregressive) model. Variables used in the VAR model were selected among 56 domestic and foreign macroeconomic time series through crosscorrelation and Granger causality test. The performance of the VAR model was compared with the univariate time series model, AR (autoregressive) model, in view of MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and RMSE (root mean square error) of forecasts for the last twelve months.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.619-627
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• 2020

This study measures the relationship between labor productivity and national competitiveness. Through the shift- share analysis method, the paper has separated labor productivity into three factors: static shift effect, dynamic shift effect and endogeneous effect. Next, in combination with the Granger causality test, the paper examines the relationship between the factors constituting labor productivity and competitiveness during the period from 2005 to 2017. Research data is collected from General Statistics Office and annual global competitiveness reports. The results show that the interaction between labor productivity with global competitiveness index (GCI) in Vietnam has similar variation. Nevertheless, when separating labor productivity into three effects, this relationship shows more clearly that the impact of labor productivity on GCI scores is mainly caused by endogeneous effect, not by static shift effect or dynamic shift effect. Therefore, in order to improve its competitiveness, Vietnam should focus on a number of solutions: reforming the education system towards developing thinking capacity and creative capacity; fostering industrial manners to create dynamic and flexible workers; building the State with sufficient capacity to implement consistent and transparent policies; formulating policies to attract all economic sectors so that they actively participate in the field of human resource training for the country.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.543-553
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• 2020

This paper examines the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the Philippine stock exchange, peso-dollar rate and retail price of diesel using robust least squares regression and vector autoregression (VAR). The robust least squares regression using MM-estimation method concluded that COVID-19 daily infection has negative and statistically significant effect on the Philippine stock exchange index, peso-dollar exchange rate and retail pump price of diesel. This is consistent with the results of correlation diagnostics. As for the VAR model, the lag values of the independent variable disclose significance in explaining the Philippine stock exchange index, peso-dollar exchange rate and retail pump price of diesel. Moreover, in the short run, the impulse response function confirmed relative effect of COVID-19 daily infections and the variance decomposition divulge that COVID-19 daily infections have accounted for only minor portion in explaining fluctuations of the Philippine stock exchange index, peso-dollar exchange and retail pump price of diesel. In the long term, the influence levels off. The Granger causality test suggests that COVID-19 daily infections cause changes in the Philippine stock exchange index and peso-dollar exchange rate in the short run. However, COVID-19 infection has no causal link with retail pump price of diesel.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.79-90
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the relationship between urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. The data used in the study are time-series data for the period 1985-2017; the data utilized are sourced from World Development Indicators obtained on the World Bank database. The method uses a quantitative approach that applies the vector error correction model based on the Granger causality test. The empirical results reveal that, in the short run, there is evidence that urbanization and energy consumption can causes CO2 emissions, and they also prove that urbanization can cause energy consumption. Also, other findings prove the existence of long-run relationships flowing from energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions toward urbanization, as well as the existence of the relationship flowing from urbanization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions towards energy consumption. The results of testing the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions reveal that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is proven in Indonesia. Thus, policies are needed to limit the impact of urbanization through high awareness-raising to maintain environmental quality and greater use of energy. Also, energy conservation policies are needed in all sectors, especially the electricity, industry, and transportation sectors.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.533-539
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• 2021

This study aims to consider the role of women serving in the executive committee of the company and determine how it related to corporate social and environmental responsibilities (CSR and ESR). The data was collected from the 344 companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2013 and 2014. Especially, the CSR and ESR data was collected from the annual report and used to measure activities related to environmental and social responsibilities of companies listed on the SET. This study employed panel analysis regression to analyze the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The results indicated that the role of women who served in the executive committees of companies listed on SET had a positive impact on the social and environmental responsibilities of companies listed on the SET. The Granger causality test showed that the proportion of women holding positions on the board of directors had a statistically significant relationship with CSR and ESR, which is a unidirectional relationship. Moreover, the size of the company and the return to total assets also have a positive significant relationship with the CSR and ESR.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.79-88
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• 2022

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of agricultural exports and imports on economic growth in Bangladesh and propose an upgraded and customized model of the supply chain for agribusiness growth in Bangladesh to achieve plain sailing and systematic operation and financial gains at home and abroad. Research design, data, and methodology: All data in the research have been collected from secondary sources. Gross domestic product was used as the dependent variable and exports and imports of agricultural products were used as independent variables. Pairwise Granger causality was utilized to see the impact of the variable responsible for the economic growth in Bangladesh and the causal relationship between the variables analyzed was measured using Johansen co-integration test. Results: From the empirical analysis, the researchers observed that agricultural commodity imports and exports have a unidirectional impact on economic growth in Bangladesh and a long-run causal link with economic growth in Bangladesh. The suggested supply chain model of agribusiness aids in achieving smooth operations, systematic management, and monetary gains both domestically and internationally. Conclusions: This paper contributes to the development of a more effective and profitable agribusiness supply chain in Bangladesh systematically through their theoretical and practical implications.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.88 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 1999

The dynamic relationships among import prices of roundwood are analyzed using the time series approach. A vector autoregression(VAR) model is estimated for six import prices(New Zealand, Chile, Russia, U.S.A., PNG, and Malaysia). Then Granger's causality test, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response function analysis are also conducted. The major results are summarized as follows : (1) The prices of New Zealand and Russia are caused by only own lagged prices. (2) The prices of Chile and PNG are effected by New Zealand, the price of PNG is effected by New Zealand and Russia, and the price of U.S.A. is effected by those of Chile and PNG, respectively. (3) An exogenous shock in New Zealand will affect the prices of New Zealand, PNG, U.S.A., Chile, Russia. (4) An exogenous shock in Chile may also affect the prices of Chile, U.S.A., Russia.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.237-250
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• 2016

This paper is to explore the relationship between the San-Nong expenditure and Quality of life of rural residents in China for the period of 1978-2013, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, VAR model, and VECM. The results of a study on the relationship between two variables show that an obvious mutually causal relationship exits between the financial expenditure for San-Nong(san) and gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery(apro) in China. But the case of per capita ploor space of newly built residential buildings in rural area(rho) and per capita consumption expenditure of rural households(rli) show that the financial expenditure for San-Nong(san) press for improvement in the quality of life of rural residence, while rho and rli have not yet apparent effect to san. On the other hand, It showed that the financial expenditure for San-Nong(san) and the number of medical personnel(prdo) do not have a causal relationship with each other. Therefore, the government needs to find ways for a variety of San-Nong expenditure to improve the quality of life of rural residents.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.13-28
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to compare short-term price predictive power among ARMA ARMAX and VAR forecasting models based on the MDM test using monthly consumer price data of frozen mackerel. This study also aims to help policymakers and economic actors make reasonable choices in the market on monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel. To analyze this study, the frozen wholesale prices and new consumer prices were used as variables while the price time series data were used from December 2013 to July 2021. Through the unit root test, it was confirmed that the time series variables employed in the models were stable while the level variables were used for analysis. As a result of conducting information standards and Granger causality tests, it was found that the wholesale prices and fresh consumer prices from the previous month have affected the frozen consumer prices. Then, the model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE, RMSPE, MAE, MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficient criteria where the predictive power was compared by the MDM test in order to examine which model is superior. As a result of the analysis, ARMAX(1,1) with the frozen wholesale, ARMAX(1,1) with the fresh consumer model and VAR model were selected. Through the five criteria and MDM tests, the VAR model was selected as the superior model in predicting the monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.