• Title/Summary/Keyword: good class

Search Result 1,181, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

A Study on Development of Energy Education Materials for Middle School Students (중학교용 에너지 교육 자료 개발 연구)

  • 최돈형;이양락
    • Hwankyungkyoyuk
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.46-87
    • /
    • 1994
  • Our country has been consuming a huge amount of energy in the course of industrialization and its demand is expected to increase enormously in the future. However, the deposits of energy resources are so limited that the settlement of energy problem comes up the essential subject. To solve the energy problem, it is requested that new resources to gain energy stably should be developed and also energy should be economized and used effectively. The effective use of energy and an the wisdom of economy in energy are requested to everybody and these things should be habitualized from very young age through education. Nevertheless, almost every school in our country hasn’t been concerned about energy education. Even though they have a concern, they are very short of the energy education materials and the quality of the materials is not so good. Therefore it is very meaningful to the settlement of energy problem of the country to make the students who will lead our country to make the students who will lead our country in the future realize the seriousness of energy problem and to provide them the necessary knowledge and methods to solve this problem so that they practice those things in everyday life. Having these necessities, this research, supported by The Korea Energy Management Corporation(KEMCO), was performed for 8 months from April 17, 1994 to December 17, 1994. Many peoples participated in this study such as 30 staffs of researchers and authors, 5 staffs of photographers and illustrators, and 3 VCR program producers developing an energy education material set for middle school students that includes a printed material for student, a diskette for computer simulation, a teacher's guidebook, VCR material and its guidebook. The following main development direction was established : First, the material for student should be consisted of units that let students know the seriousness of energy problem. Second, the focus should be put on the necessary method and practice to economize energy actually in real life based on the basic knowledge learned in elementary school. Third, material for student should be consisted of modules to be student activity-oriented teaching-learning rather than lecture-oriented one. The activity, to maximize student's interests, should be presented in various forms such as experiments, investigation, play, data interpretation, computer simulation, visits, expression and appreciation, etc. To develop the energy education materials for middle school students, a research plan was made first. After literature review about domestic and foreign energy education materials, several research trips home and abroad, and discussion meetings, the basic theory of energy education such as the principle, objective, contents, teaching-learning method, and evaluation method was established. Material for student was developed through the following procedures : The activities in the existing energy education materials were analysed and were divided into four categories related to energy using places of home, school, community, and country, and which were again divided into three categories related to time of past, present, and future, Considering these division, nine modules which are structure units of material for student were chosen, Each module comprises 2-4 activities. Totally 31 activities were designed in this way. The syllabi were made out for each activity and writing was asked for to experts related to each activity after several discussions and revision. To complement the draft, another several discussions and revision were also made on it and then pictures and illustrations were asked for. All these procedures complete the material for student, titled ; Energy Inquiry of Middle School Students', which totals 129 pages and is all in color. As the manuscript of material for student was fixed, writing for teacher's guidebook was asked for to the same writers. The draft of teacher's guidebook was also complemented through the several concentrated works and discussions. Teacher's guidebook focused on the teaching-learning principle and methods of energy education and on the concrete instruction cases for effective instruction of material for student. It is organized with two parts : the one is 'general outline' which introduces theoretical contents and the other is 'details' which are practically helpful to teaching-learning. It is totally 131 pages including both 'general outline' and 'details'. The VCR material and its guidebook consist of contents that cultivate the good attitude trying to economize energy and raise student's interests with a purpose of strong motivation to recognize the necessity of economy and practice it. After establishing development direction of VCR material through discussion meetings and research trips, its script was made by relevant experts. Then the script was also reviewed two times. The drafted VCR material made by a video material developing expert was examined and modified by previews twice. After completion of VCR material, the VCR guidebook was made. All these procedures led to the development of VCR material which runs 20 minutes in VHS type. The VCR guidebook shows a production purpose of the program, structure of contents, evaluation methods, and contents of the program in detail to give help to instructors when they use this VCR material, When these energy education materials are used, it is desirable that the VCR material should be presented first to induce student's motive, and then material for student is introduced Since the material for student is composed of activity-oriented modules and each module is independent one another in general, and each activity is, too. the necessary module or activity can be chosen and utilized in any order according to school or class conditions. This energy education materials will contribute to the development of student's ability to solve energy problem in everyday life and teacher's ability to teach the fundamental knowledge and method in solving energy problem.

  • PDF

A Study of the Relation of Stress to Oral Parafunctional Habits of Male High School Students (일부 지역 남자 고등학생들의 스트레스와 구강악습관과의 관련성 연구)

  • Jung, Yu Yeon;Hong, Jin Tae
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.471-479
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study is trying to grasp the stress of the male high school students and the correlation between the stress according to the academic and economic level and oral parafunctional habits, emphasizing the need for the education of oral parafunctional habits, providing the basic data in order to accomplish correctly until the oral health of the oral maxillofacial region. From May 2013 till July 2013, a self administered survey was conducted by the selected by convenience sampling from subjects of 1, 2 grade of two high school located in Chungnam, Korea. The study results were as follow: 1) Among five areas of stress, the stress of school life was the highest as 2.11 points and the stress of home problem was the lowest as 1.51 points; 2) the stress by class showed that grade 2 was higher than grade 1 in all areas. The stress of the school life (2.21) (p<0.01), interpersonal relationship (p<0.01), and own problem (p<0.05) showed the significant difference; 3) The significance analysis results between the five areas of stress according to the stress of latent variable and the oral parafunctional habits all showed the significant difference (p<0.001). The correlation between the stress and the oral parafunctional habits showed a weak negative correlation as -0.30, and the stress of the school life, own problem, environment problem, and interpersonal relationship showed very strong correlations more than 0.7; 4) Fit measures test result of stress, academic level, and family economic level model all showed more than 0.9 in good of fit index, adjusted goodness of fit index, normed fit index and root mean square residual and root mean square error of approximation values is all estimated less than 0.1, so it showed good model. From this study, it can be concluded that there is the correlation between stress and oral parafunctional habits.

A Study of Fish Community on Up and Downstream of Hwabuk Dam Under Construction in the Upper Wie Stream. (위천 상류에 건설 중인 화북댐 상 하류 어류군집에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Jin-Won;Kim, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.42 no.2
    • /
    • pp.260-269
    • /
    • 2009
  • Hwabuk Dam has been under construction to reduce flood damage in Nakdong River watershed and to supply stable water for middle area of Gyeongbuk Province. Therefore, fish investigation in up and downstream of the dam was conducted from 2004 to 2008 in order to determine any negative effect on fish community due to dam construction and to use as fundamental data for conserving species diversity and maintaining stream health. According to data analysis on water quality, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, and total E-coli had seasonal variation, but they did not significantly differ in sites. However, biological and chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, and phosphorus representing organic matter and nutrient concentration were higher in upper site and decreased to lower site so that they differed by site. Concentration of arsenic among the heavy metals was less than 0.05 mg $L^{-1}$, which is regulated for protection of human health in water quality standard, except for 0.092 mg $L^{-1}$ in June 2005. During the study period, the total number of fish caught from the 6 sites was 10,263 representing 7 families 19 species. Among them, dominant and subdominant species were Korean chub (Zacco koreanus, 62.5%) and Chinese minnow (Rhynchocypris oxycephalus, 10.6%) which inhabit mostly in mid and upper streams, Korea. Among the 19 species, Korean endemic species were 9 species (47.4%) including Korean slender gudgeon (Squalidus gracilis majimae), Korean dark sleeper (Odontobutis platycephala), and Korean shiner (Coreoleuciscus splendidus). There was several individuals of the $1^{st}$-class endangered species, Naktong nose loach (Koreocobitis nahtongensis), caught in 2005${\sim}$2007, and no introduced species of fish was found in entire sampling period. According to result of community analysis, dominance index decreased toward lower site, but diversity and richness indices increased toward lower site. The equation of length-weight relationship on the dominant species was TW=0.000003$(TL)^{3.2603}$. The parameter b in the equation was greater than 3.0 indicating good nutritional condition in the populations. Compared to populations of Korean chub in other streams, the population in Hwabuk Dam watershed had higher mean of condition factor by size indicating better growth rate. With fish fauna and multi-metric health assessment model in each sampling attempt, index of biotic integrity (IBI) was evaluated and it resulted mostly in good (26${\sim}$35) and excellent (36${\sim}$40) condition in all sites, and the mean of IBI was the highest in site 5. The results indicate that it is very important to study not only environmental impact assessment with fish composition but also stream health assessment in order to conserve healthy aquatic ecosystem.

Deep Learning Architectures and Applications (딥러닝의 모형과 응용사례)

  • Ahn, SungMahn
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.127-142
    • /
    • 2016
  • Deep learning model is a kind of neural networks that allows multiple hidden layers. There are various deep learning architectures such as convolutional neural networks, deep belief networks and recurrent neural networks. Those have been applied to fields like computer vision, automatic speech recognition, natural language processing, audio recognition and bioinformatics where they have been shown to produce state-of-the-art results on various tasks. Among those architectures, convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks are classified as the supervised learning model. And in recent years, those supervised learning models have gained more popularity than unsupervised learning models such as deep belief networks, because supervised learning models have shown fashionable applications in such fields mentioned above. Deep learning models can be trained with backpropagation algorithm. Backpropagation is an abbreviation for "backward propagation of errors" and a common method of training artificial neural networks used in conjunction with an optimization method such as gradient descent. The method calculates the gradient of an error function with respect to all the weights in the network. The gradient is fed to the optimization method which in turn uses it to update the weights, in an attempt to minimize the error function. Convolutional neural networks use a special architecture which is particularly well-adapted to classify images. Using this architecture makes convolutional networks fast to train. This, in turn, helps us train deep, muti-layer networks, which are very good at classifying images. These days, deep convolutional networks are used in most neural networks for image recognition. Convolutional neural networks use three basic ideas: local receptive fields, shared weights, and pooling. By local receptive fields, we mean that each neuron in the first(or any) hidden layer will be connected to a small region of the input(or previous layer's) neurons. Shared weights mean that we're going to use the same weights and bias for each of the local receptive field. This means that all the neurons in the hidden layer detect exactly the same feature, just at different locations in the input image. In addition to the convolutional layers just described, convolutional neural networks also contain pooling layers. Pooling layers are usually used immediately after convolutional layers. What the pooling layers do is to simplify the information in the output from the convolutional layer. Recent convolutional network architectures have 10 to 20 hidden layers and billions of connections between units. Training deep learning networks has taken weeks several years ago, but thanks to progress in GPU and algorithm enhancement, training time has reduced to several hours. Neural networks with time-varying behavior are known as recurrent neural networks or RNNs. A recurrent neural network is a class of artificial neural network where connections between units form a directed cycle. This creates an internal state of the network which allows it to exhibit dynamic temporal behavior. Unlike feedforward neural networks, RNNs can use their internal memory to process arbitrary sequences of inputs. Early RNN models turned out to be very difficult to train, harder even than deep feedforward networks. The reason is the unstable gradient problem such as vanishing gradient and exploding gradient. The gradient can get smaller and smaller as it is propagated back through layers. This makes learning in early layers extremely slow. The problem actually gets worse in RNNs, since gradients aren't just propagated backward through layers, they're propagated backward through time. If the network runs for a long time, that can make the gradient extremely unstable and hard to learn from. It has been possible to incorporate an idea known as long short-term memory units (LSTMs) into RNNs. LSTMs make it much easier to get good results when training RNNs, and many recent papers make use of LSTMs or related ideas.

Fish Community Characteristics and Distribution Aspect of Rhodeus pseudosericeus(Cyprinidae) in the Geumdangcheon(Stream), a Tributary of the Hangang Drainage System of Korea (한강 지류 금당천의 어류군집 특징과 멸종위기종 한강납줄개의 서식양상)

  • Mee-Sook Han;Myeong-Hun Ko
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.151-162
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study investigated the characteristics of fish communities and inhabiting status of the endangered species, Rhodeus pseudosericeus, in the Geumdang Stream in Korea from March to October 2021. A total of 1,698 fish in 5 families and 25 species were collected from 7 survey stations during the survey period. The dominant species was Zacco platypus (relative abundance, 46.5%), and the subdominant species was Squalidus gracilis majimae (16.7%), followed by Rhynchocypris oxycephalus (12.0%), Z. koreanus (5.7%), Pungtungia herzi (3.2%), R. pseudosericeus (2.0%), R. notatus (1.9%), and Acheilognathus rhombeus (1.8%). Nine Korean endemic species (36.0%) were collected, including R. pseudosericeus, R. uyekii, Sarcocheilichthys variegatus wakiyae, Microphysogobio yaluensis, S. gracilis majimae, Z. koreanus, Cobitis nalbanti, Iksookimia koreensis, and Odontobutis interrupta. An exotic species, Micropterus salmoides, designated as an invasive alien species (IAS), was collected downstream. The investigation of the habitat patterns of the endangered species (class II), Rhodeus pseudosericeus, showed a habitat range of about 6 to 7 km in the middle of Geumdang Stream (RP-1 to RP-4), and this species inhabited the edge with water depths of 0.3 through 1.0 m with slow water flow and many aquatic plants. According to the community analysis results, the overall dominance and evenness indexes were low, while diversity and richness indexes were high, and the cluster structure was largely divided into upstream and middle-downstream areas. The river health (fish assessment index) evaluated using fish was assessed as good (3 stations), normal (3 stations), and bad (1 station), and water quality was evaluated as good both upstream and downstream. Compared to previous studies, the number of species was relatively similar, and among the species that appeared in the past, 13 species did not appear in this survey, while 6 species appeared for the first time in this survey. Disturbance factors included river construction, many weirs, and the appearance of the ecosystem-disturbing species, M. salmoides. Since Geumdang Strem has high conservation value because it is home to many species in the Acheilognathinae subfamily, including the endangered species R. pseudosericeus, continuous attention and systematic conservation measures are required.

Fish Community Characteristics, and Habitat Characteristics and the Age of the Eight Barbel Loach, Lefua costata (Pisces: Namacheilidae) in the Jusucheon of Gangneung-si (강릉시 주수천의 어류군집 특징 및 쌀미꾸리 Lefua costata (Pisces: Namacheilidae)의 서식지 특징과 연령)

  • Han, Mee-Sook;Ko, MyeongHun
    • Korean Journal of Ichthyology
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.160-171
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study investigated the characteristics of fish communities, habitat characteristics and the age of Lefua costata in the Jusucheon of Gangneung-si, Korea from January to December 2013. The survey collected 23 species belonging to ten families from 6 survey stations. The dominant and subdominant species were Zacco koreanus (relative abundance, 22.1%) and Rhynchocypris steindachneri (20.1%), respectively. The next most abundant species were Tridentiger brevispinis (10.7%), Orthrias nudus (9.7%), Zacco platypus (8.6%), Lefua costata (7.9%), Iksookimia koreensis (6.0%) and Pungitius sinensis (3.0%). Among the fish species collected, one species, P. sinensis, was class II endangered wildlife by the Ministry of Environment, and four species (Z. koreanus, I. koreensis, Silurus microdorsalis and Cottus koreanus), were endemic to Korea. Additionally, five migration fish species (Tribolodon hakonensis, Hypomesus nipponensis, Gasterosteus aculeatus, Oncorhynchus keta and Plecoglossus altivelis) were collected. The similarity index based on species composition and numbers separated fish communites in the Jusucheon according to main section, i.e., uppermost(St. 1), upper (St. 2~4), middle (St. 5), lower (St. 6). Ecosystem health of Jusucheon Stream (fish assessement index) evaluated using fish was assessed as very good (5 stations) and good (1 station). The main inhabit of L. costata was the middle-lower stream of aquatic plants habitats with mud bottoms, very slow water velocity and water depth 40~80 cm. The age groups for L. costata (female) estimated by the frequency distribution of total length in the spawning season (May) indicated that the 24~37 mm is 1-year old, the 38~51 mm group is 2-year old, the 52~63 mm is 3-year old, 64~77 mm is 4-year old and the 80~91 mm is more than 5-year old. Finally, characteristics of fish communities, habitat characteristics and the age of Lefua costata in the Jusucheon was discussed.

Fish Community Characteristics and Distribution Aspect of Four Endangered Species in the Byekgye Stream, Korea (벽계천의 어류군집 특성 및 멸종위기 4종의 서식양상)

  • HyeongSu Kim;Myeong-Hun Ko
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.38 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-66
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study conducted a survey to investigate the characteristics of fish communities and the inhabiting status of endangered species in the Byekgye Stream, Korea from April to September 2020. A total of 3,415 fish of 9 families and 31 species were collected from 7 survey stations during the survey period. The dominant species was Zacco koreanus (relative abundance of 31.2%), and the subdominant species was Z. platypus (15.0%), followed by Pungtungia herzi (11.7%), Acheilognathus yamatsutae (5.4%), A. lanceolata intermedia (4.8%), Rhinogobius brunneus (4.4%), and Pseudopungtungia tenuicorpa (4.3%). Among the fish species collected, 19 (61.3%) were identified as Korean endemic species, and two cold-water fish species sensitive to climate change (Rhynchocypris kumgangensis and Cottus koreanus) were collected. Four species were designated as class II endangered wildlife by the Ministry of Environment: A. signifer, P. tenuicorpa, Rhodeus pseudosericeus, and C. koreanus. A. signifer and P. tenuicorpa mainly inhabited the mid to lower streams, R. pseudosericeus in the midstream, and R. pseudosericeus in the upstream. P. tenuicorpa inhabited in large numbers, and estimating the age by total length-frequency distribution in July, the total length of the 26-35 mm group was estimated as 0 years old, the 54-75 mm group as 1 year old, 82-97 mm group as 2 years old, 104-109 mm group as 3 years or older. The cluster analysis showed that the dominance index decreased from upstream to downstream, but the diversity, evenness, and richness index increased. The water quality of Byekgye Stream was evaluated as good overall since the river health (fish assessment index, FAI) using fish was evaluated as excellent (5 stations) and good (2 stations). Byekgye Stream has relatively well-preserved habitats, but conservation measures are required as habitats are disturbed by river repair work in some parts of the midstream and downstream areas where many endangered species inhabit.

Early Clinical Experience in Aortic Valve Replacement Using On-X$^{circledR}$Prosthetic Heart Valve (On-X$^{circledR}$ 기계판막을 이용한 대동맥판 치환술의 조기 임상 경험)

  • 안병희;전준경;류상완;최용선;김병표;홍성범;박종춘;김상형
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.36 no.9
    • /
    • pp.651-658
    • /
    • 2003
  • Since the first implanted in September 1997, the use of On-X prosthetic heart valve has been increasing around in the world. This study was designed to assess the feasibility, safety, and the postoperative hemodynamics with this new valve in clinical setting. Material and Method: The current study was carried out on 52 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with this prosthesis between April 1999 to August 2002 at Chonnam National University Hospital to evaluate the surgical results. 52% of the patients were male and the average age at implant was 50$\pm$13 years. The study followed the guidelines of the AATS/STS. Preoperatively, 32(61.5%) patients were in NYHA functional class III or IV and 2 patients had previous aortic valve surgery. Concomitant cardiac surgery was performed in 71.1%. The implanted valve sizes were 19 mm in 13 patients, 21 mm in 26, 23 mm in 10 and 25 mm in 3, respectively. Mean follow-up was 16.6$\pm$10.5 months (1∼39 months). Echocardiographic assessment was performed pre- and immediate postoperatively, as well as 3, 6, 12 months after surgery, evaluating pressure loss and regression of left ventricular hypertrophy. Result: Mean cardiopulmonary bypass time was 191$\pm$94.7 minutes with an aortic cross-clamp time of 142$\pm$51.7 minutes. There was no early and late mortality, Freedom from adverse events at 1 year in the study were as follows: thromboembolism, 95.6$\pm$6%; bleeding events, 90.2$\pm$4%; paravalvular leakage 92.3$\pm$4%; and overall valve-related morbidity at 1 year was 76.6$\pm$3%. There were no cases of valve thrombosis, prosthetic valve endocarditis and structural or non-structural failure. Left ventricular function at 12 months after surgery (EF=62.7$\pm$9.8%) revealed a statistically significant improvement compared to preoperative investigation (EF=55.8$\pm$15.9%, p=0.006). Left ventricular mass index was 247.3$\pm$122.3 g/$m^2$ on preoperative echocardiographic study, but regressed to 155.5$\pm$58.2 g/$m^2$ at postoperative 1 year (p=0.002). Over the follow-up period a further decrease of peak transvalvular gradients was observed in all patients: 62.5$\pm$38.0 mmHg on preoperative assessment, 18.2$\pm$6.8 mmHg at immediate postoperative period (p < 0.0001), 7.6$\pm$5.09 mmHg (p<0.0001) at 6 month, 18.0$\pm$10.8 mmHg (p<0.0001) at 1 year. Conclusion: The On-X prosthetic heart valve performs satisfactorily in the first 1 year period. Clinical outcome by examining NYHA functional classification revealed especially good results. Effective regression of left ventricular hypertrophy and statistically significant decrease of transvalvular gradient were observed over the first year, but longer-term follow-up of this patient group is needed to establish the expected rates for late valve-related events as well as the long-term clinical efficacy of this valve.

Epidemiological Changes and Clinical Features of Hepatitis A in Children, Living in Kyung-gi Province, Since 1988 to 1998 (최근 10년간(1988~1998) 경기지역 소아에서 A형 간염의 역학적 변화 및 임상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun;Kim, Jong Hyun;Kim, Dong Un;Hur, Je Kyun;Lee, Won Bae;Seo, Byung Kyeu;Kang, Jin-Han
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.230-238
    • /
    • 1998
  • Purpose : Worldwidely, the incidence of the hepatitis A has been markedly decreased in the past years. Also in Korea, there has been only a few sporadic cases without evidence of epidemics since the mid 1980s. However, the incidence of the hepatitis A in young adults and childen has been in trends of increasing since 1996. So, we retrospectively performed the study on the epidemiolgical changes and the clinical feature of hepatitis A in childen, living in Kyung-gi province, since 1988 to 1998. Methods : The four affiliated hospitals of the Catholic University of Korea, Our lady of Mercy's hospital, Holy family hospital, Eui-Jung-bu St. Mary's hospital, and St. Vincent hospital, were enrolled in this study. We conducted statistical analysis on the incidence of hepatitis A since 1988 to 1998, concerning with the period (monthly, annually), age, sex and related epidemiological property, by reviewing the hospital records of the patients with hepatitis A. We simultaneously performed the study concerning with the clinical characteristics of hepatitis A. Results : 1) During the study period, 46 children was diagnosed as hepatitis A, and among them 28 children (60.1%) developed sporadically in the 1998. And sex ratio was 1.2(male):1(female). 2) Most of the patients developed between March and July, and hepatitits A were mainly developed in the patients above the 10 year old ages(37 patients; 80.4%). 3) The socioeconomic and educational status of the patient's parents was almostly below the middle and low class. Although, we could not find the etiological factors in most cases, but we found the evidence of interfamilial transmission in one family. 4) The patients complained the symptoms of nausea and vomiting, jaundice, poor appetite, mild fever, fatigueness, abdominal pain, URI symptom, dyspepsia, dark urine, headache and diarrhea in order, and findings of jaundice, hepatomegaly, RUQ tenderness, splenomegaly and LLQ tenderness in order were seen. 5) All patients showed abnormal findings of the liver function tests, and the pattern of cholestatic hepatitis were seen in most cases, but these findings were normalized within the 2~4 weeks. The findings of the gall bladder wall thickening, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly and ascites were seen on abodominal sonogram. 6) The prognosis of all patients were good without complications, except in one case who had the episode of transient recuurence. And the mean hospitalization dates were 11.1 days. Conclusion : We found that the incidence of hepatitis A showed the increasing trend, and peaked in the 1998 in Kyung-gi province children. And hepatitis A mainly developed in children above the 10 year old ages. The scioeconomic and educational status of patient's family was almostly below the middle class. All of them showed abnormal liver function, and clinically cholestatic hepatitis features were seen in most cases. But, the prognosis was excellent without complication in all cases.

  • PDF

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
    • /
    • 1995.02a
    • /
    • pp.101-113
    • /
    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

  • PDF