• Title/Summary/Keyword: generalized model

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Does Home Oxygen Therapy Slow Down the Progression of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases?

  • Han, Kyu-Tae;Kim, Sun Jung;Park, Eun-Cheol;Yoo, Ki-Bong;Kwon, Jeoung A;Kim, Tae Hyun
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.128-135
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: As the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) began to cover home oxygen therapy (HOT) services from 2006, it is expected that the new services have contributed to overall positive outcome of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We examined whether the usage of HOT has helped slow down the progression of COPD. Methods: We examined hospital claim data (N=10,798) of COPD inpatients who were treated in 2007~2012. We performed ${\chi}^2$ tests to analyze the differences in the changes to respiratory impairment grades. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that are associated with the use of HOT. Finally, a generalized linear mixed model was used to examine association between the HOT treatment and changes to respiratory impairment grades. Results: A total of 2,490 patients had grade 1 respiratory impairment, and patients with grades 2 or 3 totaled 8,308. The OR for use of HOT was lower in grade 3 patients than others (OR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30~0.37). The maintenance/mitigation in all grades, those who used HOT had a higher OR than non-users (OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.23~1.61). Conclusion: HOT was effective in maintaining or mitigating the respiratory impairment in COPD patients.

Impact of Weather on Prevalence of Febrile Seizures in Children (소아의 열성경련에 날씨가 미치는 영향)

  • Woo, Jung Hee;Oh, Seok Bin;Yim, Chung Hyuk;Byeon, Jung Hye;Eun, Baik-Lin
    • Journal of the Korean Child Neurology Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Febrile seizure (FS) is the most common type of seizure in children between 6 months to 5 years of age. A family history of febrile seizures can increase the risk a child will have a FS. Yet, prevalence of FS regarding external environment has not been clearly proved. This study attempts to determine the association between prevalence of FS and weather. Methods: This study included medical records from the Korea National Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Data were collected from 29,240 children, born after 2004, diagnosed with FS who were admitted to one of the hospitals in Seoul, Korea, between January 2009 and December 2013. During the corresponding time period, data from the Korea Meteorological Administration on daily monitoring of four meteorological factors (sea-level pressure, amount of precipitation, humidity and temperature) were collected. The relationships of FS prevalence and each meteorological factor will be designed using Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). Also, the contributory effect of viral infections on FS prevalence and weather will be discussed. Results: The amount of precipitation was divided into two groups for comparison: one with less than 5 mm and the other with equal to or more than 5 mm. As a result of Poisson GAM, higher prevalence of FS showed a correlation with smaller amount of precipitation. Smoothing function was used to classify the relationships between three variables (sea-level pressure, humidity, and temperature) and prevalence of FS. FS prevalence was correlated with lower sea-level pressure and lower humidity. FS prevalence was high in two temperature ranges (-7 to $-1^{\circ}C$ and $18-21^{\circ}C$). Conclusion: Low sea-level pressure, small amount of precipitation, and low relative air humidity may increase FS prevalence risk.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Flow Characteristics According to Velocity Conditions of Cylinder Boundary Under Low Reynolds Number (저 레이놀즈 수에서 실린더 경계 유속조건에 따른 흐름 특성)

  • Song, Chang Geun;Seo, Il Won;Kim, Tae Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2267-2275
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    • 2013
  • Existing conventional model for analysis of shallow water flow just assumed the internal boundary condition as free-slip, which resulted in the wrong prediction about the velocity, vorticity, water level, shear stress distribution, and time variation of drag and lift force around a structure. In this study, a finite element model that can predict flow characteristics around the structure accurately was developed and internal boundary conditions were generalized as partial slip condition using slip length concept. Laminar flow characteristics behind circular cylinder were analyzed by varying the internal boundary conditions. The simulation results of (1) time variations of longitudinal and transverse velocities, and vorticity; (2) wake length; (3) vortex shedding phenomena by slip length; (4) and mass conservation showed that the vortex shedding had never observed and laminar flow like creeping motion was occurred under free-slip condition. Assignment of partial slip condition changed the velocity distribution on the cylinder surface and influenced the magnitude of the shear stress and the occurrence of vorticity so that the period of vortex shedding was reduced compared with the case of no slip condition. The maximum mass conservation error occurred in the case of no slip condition, which had the value of 0.73%, and there was 0.21 % reduction in the maximum mass conservation error by changing the internal boundary condition from no slip to partial slip condition.

The Concept Analysis of Hope : Among Cancer Patients Undergoing Chemotherapy (희망의 개념 분석 -항암화학요법을 받는 암환자를 대상으로-)

  • Song, Mi-Sun;Lee, Eun-Ok;Park, Yeong-Suk;Ha, Yang-Suk;Sim, Yeong-Suk;Yu, Su-Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.1279-1291
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    • 2000
  • The main objectives of this study were to analyze the concept of hope, so to provide basic data to develop a valid instrument to measure hope, and to develop hope enhancing nursing intervention a program for cancer patients. The hybrid model approach was applied in three phases, the theoretical phase, the empirical phase, and the analytic phase. The study was developed on universal attributes explaining generalized hope and specific hope, which were revealed in a comprehensive review of the literature. In the empirical phase, eight cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy were interviewed to reveal causes, motivation, and their resource of hope according to The Hope Assessment Guide (Farren, Herth, & Popovich, 1995). In the analytical phase, the results of the two previous stages of the study were compared. The results were as follows : In the theoretical phase, six dimensions of hope emerged; affective, cognitive, behavioral, affiliative, temporal and contextual dimension. The antecedent of hope was loss, crisis, uncertainity, and stress. The consequences were renewal, development of new methods, safety, peace and transcendental competence. In the empirical phase, these six dimensions emerged as theoretical phases were verified and specified as these descriptive terms: feeling, intention, expectation, activity, relation, future- orientation, reality and goal-setting. The antecedent factor of hope was occurrence or recurrence of cancer. The consequence of hope was ability to cope with real condition, feeling of safety and comfort, peace, development of new strategy and recovery of disease. The major content of hope in this phase was related to specific hope, but it was also influenced on by general hope. In the analytic phase, general and specific hope was renamed as trait and state hope. All attributes emerged at the empirical phases, and also emerged at the theoretical phase. However, cognitive and contextual dimensions were revised and specified. In conclusion, the concept of hope is divided into trait hope and state hope, and state hope is an anticipatory expectation that occurs at the time of a stressful stimulus, such as being diagnosed with cancer. Hope is a multidimensional dynamic energized mental state which has the dimensions of affective, cognitive, behavioral, affiliative, temporal and contextual. There should be further studies to develope the state and trait hope scale according to definition and attributes of hope investigated in this study. In addition, considering results of the empirical phase, the family is very a important factor as a resource of hope, so it is necessary to consider family in implementing a nursing intervention program to enhance hope.

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A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, 1998∼2001 (서울시 대기오염과 일별 사망의 상관성에 관한 시계열적 연구 (1998∼2001년))

  • Cho, Yong-Sung;Lee, Jong-Tae;Kim, Yoon-Sin;Hong, Seung-Cheol;Kim, Ho;Ha, Eun-Hee;Park, Hye-Sook;Lee, Bo-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.625-637
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    • 2003
  • This study was performed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Seoul for the years of 1998∼2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO (current day),O$_3$ (current day), PM$_{10}$ (current day), NO$_2$ (1 day before), SO$_2$ (1 day before). Increase of 41.71 $\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ (interquartile range) in PM$_{10}$ was associated with 1.3% (95% CI = 0.7∼1.9%) increase in the daily number of death. $O_3$ concentrations resulted in an increased risk of 1.3% for 23.86 ppb in all-aged mortality [RR = 1.013 (1.004-1.023)1. This effect was greater in children (less than 15 aged) and elderly (more than 65 aged). After ozone level exceeds 25 ppb, the dose-response relationship between mortality and ozone was almost linear. We concluded that Seoul had 1∼5% increase in mortality in association with IQR (interquartile range) in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Seoul might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution, at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.rly.

A Study on the Architectural Design Utility of Object-based CAD System (객체기반 CAD 시스템의 건축설계적 효용에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Chang-Geun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2002
  • As architectural forms tend to be large-scaled, high-storied and complicated, use of computer for processing design information has been generalized. However, CAD use in the process of developing architectural design has been neglected greatly in the educational field of architectural field due to the surging of recognition that it may limit the essential property of architectural design. It may be resulted from the limitation of CAD system, that is, it is because of tardy speed of application development for the related areas with the lack of simplicity and clarity of flexibility to be secured on the drawing and user interface. Recent CAD systems, however, overcome such a limitation, convert into object-based design from entity-based drawing, drafting and modeling for implementing design concept of architects and it connects with internet linked to superspeed information communication network and changes process and stream of architectural design. Therefore, this study deals with utility of object based CAD system with products of Autodesk Co. and consequently obtain the following conclusions. First, it expands architect's design areas by supporting cooperative design system based on model-based architectural design and internet. Second, it reduces consumption of personal and material resources and time in the process of drawing production for improving architectural design works. Third, it can reduce the frequent design changes by improving understanding of architectural space with visualization of immediate 3D information, escaping from traditional methods to deliver design information to building owner through 2D drawing or model and perspective drawing requiring much cost and time. Fourth, it keeps exactness without omission or duplication of design information and generate and renew information of all related drawings on a drawing. Fifth, it is possible to change difficult and boring architectural design work into a pleasure owing to immediate modeling and drawing of design idea. In addition, digital drawing generated by using object-based CAD system can playa role of establishing Urban Information System to be used for protecting from building in disaster and urban disasters in connection with GIS numerical map and be used for reference of all kinds of information required fro post-management of buildings. However, what is more important is that surplus time from introduction of object-based CAD system should be used for consideration to be recognized as a good space and building built as a product of this project for comfort to urban people.

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Multiscale modeling of reinforced/prestressed concrete thin-walled structures

  • Laskar, Arghadeep;Zhong, Jianxia;Mo, Y.L.;Hsu, Thomas T.C.
    • Interaction and multiscale mechanics
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2009
  • Reinforced and prestressed concrete (RC and PC) thin walls are crucial to the safety and serviceability of structures subjected to shear. The shear strengths of elements in walls depend strongly on the softening of concrete struts in the principal compression direction due to the principal tension in the perpendicular direction. The past three decades have seen a rapid development of knowledge in shear of reinforced concrete structures. Various rational models have been proposed that are based on the smeared-crack concept and can satisfy Navier's three principles of mechanics of materials (i.e., stress equilibrium, strain compatibility and constitutive laws). The Cyclic Softened Membrane Model (CSMM) is one such rational model developed at the University of Houston, which is being efficiently used to predict the behavior of RC/PC structures critical in shear. CSMM for RC has already been implemented into finite element framework of OpenSees (Fenves 2005) to come up with a finite element program called Simulation of Reinforced Concrete Structures (SRCS) (Zhong 2005, Mo et al. 2008). CSMM for PC is being currently implemented into SRCS to make the program applicable to reinforced as well as prestressed concrete. The generalized program is called Simulation of Concrete Structures (SCS). In this paper, the CSMM for RC/PC in material scale is first introduced. Basically, the constitutive relationships of the materials, including uniaxial constitutive relationship of concrete, uniaxial constitutive relationships of reinforcements embedded in concrete and constitutive relationship of concrete in shear, are determined by testing RC/PC full-scale panels in a Universal Panel Tester available at the University of Houston. The formulation in element scale is then derived, including equilibrium and compatibility equations, relationship between biaxial strains and uniaxial strains, material stiffness matrix and RC plane stress element. Finally the formulated results with RC/PC plane stress elements are implemented in structure scale into a finite element program based on the framework of OpenSees to predict the structural behavior of RC/PC thin-walled structures subjected to earthquake-type loading. The accuracy of the multiscale modeling technique is validated by comparing the simulated responses of RC shear walls subjected to reversed cyclic loading and shake table excitations with test data. The response of a post tensioned precast column under reversed cyclic loads has also been simulated to check the accuracy of SCS which is currently under development. This multiscale modeling technique greatly improves the simulation capability of RC thin-walled structures available to researchers and engineers.

Calpain-10 SNP43 and SNP19 Polymorphisms and Colorectal Cancer: a Matched Case-control Study

  • Hu, Xiao-Qin;Yuan, Ping;Luan, Rong-Sheng;Li, Xiao-Ling;Liu, Wen-Hui;Feng, Fei;Yan, Jin;Yang, Yan-Fang
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.6673-6680
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    • 2013
  • Objective: Insulin resistance (IR) is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Given that CRC and IR physiologically overlap and the calpain-10 gene (CAPN10) is a candidate for IR, we explored the association between CAPN10 and CRC risk. Methods: Blood samples of 400 case-control pairs were genotyped, and the lifestyle and dietary habits of these pairs were recorded and collected. Unconditional logistic regression (LR) was used to assess the effects of CAPN10 SNP43 and SNP19, and environmental factors. Both generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) and the classification and regression tree (CART) were used to test gene-environment interactions for CRC risk. Results: The GA+AA genotype of SNP43 and the Del/Ins+Ins/Ins genotype of SNP19 were marginally related to CRC risk (GA+AA: OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 0.92-1.99; Del/Ins+Ins/Ins: OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 0.84-2.04). Notably, a high-order interaction was consistently identified by GMDR and CART analyses. In GMDR, the four-factor interaction model of SNP43, SNP19, red meat consumption, and smoked meat consumption was the best model, with a maximum cross-validation consistency of 10/10 and testing balance accuracy of 0.61 (P < 0.01). In LR, subjects with high red and smoked meat consumption and two risk genotypes had a 6.17-fold CRC risk (95% CI = 2.44-15.6) relative to that of subjects with low red and smoked meat consumption and null risk genotypes. In CART, individuals with high smoked and red meat consumption, SNP19 Del/Ins+Ins/Ins, and SNP43 GA+AA had higher CRC risk (OR = 4.56, 95%CI = 1.94-10.75) than those with low smoked and red meat consumption. Conclusions: Though the single loci of CAPN10 SNP43 and SNP19 are not enough to significantly increase the CRC susceptibility, the combination of SNP43, SNP19, red meat consumption, and smoked meat consumption is associated with elevated risk.

Molecular Theory of Plastic Deformation (I). Theory (소성변형의 분자론 (제1보). 이론)

  • Kim Chang Hong;Ree Taikyue
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.330-338
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    • 1977
  • In order to elucidate the plastic deformation of solids, the following assumptions were made: (1) the plastic deformation of solids is classified into two main types, the one which is caused by dislocation movement and the other caused by grain boundary movement, each movement being restricted on a different shear surface, (2) the dislocation movement is expressed by a mechanical model of a parallel connection of various kinds of Maxwell dislocation flow units whereas the grain boundary movement is also expressed by a parallel connection of various kinds of Maxwell grain boundary flow units; the parallel connection in each type of movements indicates that all the flow units on each shear surface flow with the same shear rate, (3) the latter model for grain boundary movement is connected in series to the former for dislocation movement, this means physically that the applied stress distributes homogeneously in the flow system while the total strain rate distributes heterogeneously on the two types of shear planes (dislocation or grain boundary shear plane), (4) the movement of dislocation flow units and grain boundary units becomes possible when the atoms or molecules near the obstacles, which hinder the movement of flow units, diffuse away from the obstacles.Using the above assumptions in conjunction with the theory of rate processes, generalized equations of shear stress and shear rate for plastic deformation were derived. In this paper, four cases important in practice were considered.ted N${\cdot}{\cdot}{\cdot}$O hydrogen bond and the second of two normal N${\cdot}{\cdot}{\cdot}$O hydrogen bonds, both of which exist between the amino group and the perchlorate, groups. A p-phenylenediamine group is approximately planar within an experimental error and bonded to twelve perchlorates: ten perchlorates forming hydrogen bonds and two being contacted with the van der Waals forces. A perchlorate group is surrounded by six p-phenylenediamines and four perchlorates; among the six p-phenylenediamines, five of them are hydrogen-bonded, and the rest contacted with the van der Waals force.

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