• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.591-598
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• 2018

Short term load forecasts complexly affected by socioeconomic factors and weather variables have non-linear characteristics. Thus far, researchers have improved load forecast technologies through diverse techniques such as artificial neural networks, fuzzy theories, and statistical methods in order to enhance the accuracy of load forecasts. Short term load forecast errors for special days are relatively much higher than that of weekdays. The errors are mainly caused by the irregularity of social activities and insufficient similar past data required for constructing load forecast models. In this study, the load characteristics of Lunar New Year's Day holidays well known for the highest error occurrence holiday period are analyzed to propose a load forecast technique for Lunar New Year's Day holidays. To solve the insufficient input data problem, the similarity of the load patterns of past Lunar New Year's Day holidays having similar patterns was judged by Euclid distance. Lunar New Year's Day holidays periods for 2011-2012 were forecasted by the proposed method which shows that the proposed algorithm yields better results than the comprehensive analysis method or the knowledge-based method.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.200-205
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• 2005

The objectives of this study were to introduce the easiest and most proper applications of datamining in industrial processes. Applying datamining in manufacturing is very different from applying it in marketing. Misapplication of datamining in manufacturing system results in significant problems. Therefore, it is very important to determine the best procedure and technique in advance. In previous studies, related literature has been introduced, but there has not been much description of datamining applications. Research has not often referred to descriptions of particular examples dealing with application problems in manufacturing. In this study, a datamining roadmap was proposed to support datamining applications for industrial processes. The roadmap was classified into three stages, and each stage was categorized into reasonable classes according to the datamining purposed. Each category includes representative techniques for datamining that have been broadly applied over decades. Those techniques differ according to developers and application purposes; however, in this paper, exemplary methods are described. Based on the datamining roadmap, nonexperts can determine procedures and techniques for datamining in their applications.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.56-66
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• 2016

Robustness is essential for model based FDI (Fault Detection and Isolation) and it is inevitable to have modeling errors and sensor signal noises during the process of FDI. This study suggests an improved method by applying NARX (Nonlinear Auto Regressive eXogenous) model and Kalman estimator in order to cope with problems caused by linear model errors and sensor signal noises in the process of fault diagnoses. Fault decision is made by the probability of the trend of gradually accumulated errors applying Fuzzy logic, which are robust to instantaneous sensor signal noises. Reliability of fault diagnosis is verified under various fault simulations.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1724-1731
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• 2018

The conventional polynomial neural network (PNN) is a classical flexible neural structure and self-organizing network, however it is not free from the limitation of overfitting problem. In this study, we propose a space search-optimized polynomial neural network (ssPNN) structure to alleviate this problem. Ranking selection is realized by means of ranking selection-based performance index (RS_PI) which is combined with conventional performance index (PI) and coefficients based performance index (CPI) (viz. the sum of squared coefficient). Unlike the conventional PNN, L2-norm regularization method for estimating the polynomial coefficients is also used when designing the ssPNN. Furthermore, space search optimization (SSO) is exploited here to optimize the parameters of ssPNN (viz. the number of input variables, which variables will be selected as input variables, and the type of polynomial). Experimental results show that the proposed ranking selection-based polynomial neural network gives rise to better performance in comparison with the neuron fuzzy models reported in the literatures.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.54-69
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• 2012

Chan and Qi (SCM 8/3 (2003) 209) developed an innovative measurement method that aggregates performance measures in a supply chain into an overall performance index. The method is useful and makes a significant contribution to supply chain management. Nevertheless, it can be cumbersome in computation due to its highly complex algorithmic fuzzy model. In aggregating the performance information, weights used by Chan and Qi-which aim to address the imprecision of human judgments-are incompatible with weights in additive models. Furthermore, the default assumption of linearity of its scoring procedure could lead to an inaccurate assessment of the overall performance. This paper addresses these limitations by developing an alternative measurement that takes care of the above. This research integrates three different approaches to multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-the multiattribute value theory (MAVT), the swing weighting method and the eigenvector procedure-to develop a comprehensive assessment of supply chain performance. One case study is presented to demonstrate the measurement of the proposed method. The performance model used in the case study relies on the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model level 1. With this measurement method, supply chain managers can easily benchmark the performance of the whole system, and then analyze the effectiveness and efficiency of the supply chain.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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• v.64 no.2
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• pp.74-78
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• 2015

With the improvement of living standards and economic development, electricity consumption continues to grow. The electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so its supply must be consistent with the demand. The objective of electricity demand forecasting is to make best use of electricity energy and provide balance between supply and demand. Hence, it is very important work to forecast electricity demand with higher precision. So, various forecasting methods have been developed. They can be divided into five broad categories such as time series models, regression based model, artificial intelligence techniques and fuzzy logic method without considering special-day effects. Electricity demand patterns on holidays can be often idiosyncratic and cause significant forecasting errors. Such effects are known as special-day effects and are recognized as an important issue in determining electricity demand data. In this research, we developed the power demand forecasting method using ELM(Extreme Learning Machine) for special day, particularly, lunar new year and Chuseok holiday.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.7
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• pp.1270-1276
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• 2016

This paper proposes the controller design for regulation control of two-link robot arm using sum of squares (SOS) control method that takes into account the input constraint. The existing studies of two link robotic arm system used a linear model of all the non-linearity of the system is linearized. For a linear controller, since the model of the system is simplified, it is possible to design a controller in consideration of constraints on the disturbance. However, there is a limit to the performance using a linearized model for a system with a complex nonlinear properties. To compensate for this in the case of using a fuzzy LMI method, it is necessary to have a large number of linear models and thus there is a disadvantage that the system becomes complicated. To solve these problems, we represents a two-link robot arm system with a polynomial model using a Taylor series expansion and design the controller considering the case where the magnitude of the control input is limited using SOS method. We demonstrate by simulations the feasibility of the proposed algorithm.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.606-609
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 support vector regression (SVR) 및 매개변수 최적화 알고리즘을 이용한 하천수위 예측모델을 구축하고 이를 실제 유역에 적용하여 모델 효율성을 평가하였다. 여기서, SVR은 하천수위를 예측하기 위한 예측모델로서 채택되었으며, 커널함수 (Kernel function)로서는 radial basis function (RBF)을 선택하였다. 최적화 알고리즘은 SVR의 최적 매개변수 (C?, cost parameter or regularization parameter; ${\gamma}$, RBF parameter; ${\epsilon}$, insensitive loss function parameter)를 탐색하기 위하여 적용되었다. 매개변수 최적화 알고리즘으로는 grid search (GS), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), artificial bee colony (ABC) 알고리즘을 채택하였으며, 비교분석을 통해 최적화 알고리즘의 적용성을 평가하였다. 또한 SVR과 최적화 알고리즘을 결합한 모델 (SVR-GS, SVR-GA, SVR-PSO, SVR-ABC)은 기존에 수자원 분야에서 널리 적용되어온 신경망(Artificial neural network, ANN) 및 뉴로퍼지 (Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, ANFIS) 모델과 비교하였다. 그 결과, 모델 효율성 측면에서 SVR-GS, SVR-GA, SVR-PSO 및 SVR-ABC는 ANN보다 우수한 결과를 나타내었으며, ANFIS와는 비슷한 결과를 나타내었다. 또한 SVR-GA, SVR-PSO 및 SVR-ABC는 SVR-GS보다 상대적으로 우수한 결과를 나타내었으며, 모델 효율성 측면에서 SVR-PSO 및 SVR-ABC는 가장 우수한 모델 성능을 나타내었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 적용한 매개변수 최적화 알고리즘은 SVR의 매개변수를 최적화하는데 효과적임을 확인할 수 있었다. SVR과 최적화 알고리즘을 이용한 하천수위 예측모델은 기존의 ANN 및 ANFIS 모델과 더불어 하천수위 예측을 위한 효과적인 도구로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 1998

If a system has a large boundary and complexity, forecast's accuracy will be very low when consider the system's substance as black box. Thus, it is necessary that analysis by structure model. To examine competition in Northeast Asia Ports, it has assumed that the form of structure model, For which the System Dynamics method is adapted in this paper. Northeast Asia Ports Model includes five ports - Pusan, Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung, - which are adjacent to each other by geographically and has a competition relation. The Northeast Asia Ports Model has several sub-systems which consists of each unit port models. And, each unit port model found by quantitive, qualititive factors and their feedback loops. All effects which components of one port have influence to components of the rest ports must be surveyed in order to construct Northeast Asia Ports Model, but it may be impossible currently. In this paper Northeast Asia Ports Model was simplified by HFP-Hierarchical Fuzzy Process Method-adapted to integration of level variables of unit port model. Container cargo volumes in Northeast Ports Model is distributed by results of HFP method. And distributed container cargo volumes effected to unit port model. Developed model can estimate change of container cargo volumes in competitive relation by alternation of simple parameter, and reflects dynamics characteristics which are included in model.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.142-142
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• 2022

Adjusting weather radar data is a prerequisite for its use in various hydrological studies. Effect of spatial variables are considered to adjust weather radar data in many of these researches. The existence of diverse topography in South Korea has increased the importance of analyzing these variables. In this study, some spatial variable like slope, elevation, aspect, distance from the sea, plan and profile curvature was considered. To investigate different topographic conditions, tried to use three radar station of Gwanaksan, Gwangdeoksan and Gudeoksan which are located in northwest, north and southeast of South Korea, respectively. To form the suitable fuzzy model and create the best membership functions of variables, ANFIS-PSO model was applied. After optimizing the model, the correlation coefficient and sensitivity of adjusted Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) based on spatial variables was calculated to find how variables work in adjusted QPE process. The results showed that the variable of elevation causes the most change in rainfall and consequently in the adjustment of radar data in model. Accordingly, the sensitivity ratio calculated for variables shows that with increasing rainfall duration, the effects of these variables on rainfall adjustment increase. The approach of this study, due to the simplicity and accuracy of this method, can be used to adjust the weather radar data and other required models.