• 제목/요약/키워드: fuzzy decision

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Predicting Audit Reports Using Meta-Heuristic Algorithms

  • Valipour, Hashem;Salehi, Fatemeh;Bahrami, Mostafa
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study aims to predict the audit reports of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange by using meta-heuristic algorithms. Research design, data, methodology - This applied research aims to predict auditors reports' using meta-heuristic methods (i.e., neural networks, the ANFIS, and a genetic algorithm). The sample includes all firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research covers the seven years between 2005 and 2011. Results - The results show that the ANFIS model using fuzzy clustering and a least-squares back propagation algorithm has the best performance among the tested models, with an error rate of 4% for incorrect predictions and 96% for correct predictions. Conclusion - A decision tree was used with ten independent variables and one dependent variable the less important variables were removed, leaving only those variables with the greatest effect on auditor opinion (i.e., net-profit-to-sales ratio, current ratio, quick ratio, inventory turnover, collection period, and debt coverage ratio).

A strategic R&D resource allocation and project selection based on R&D policy and objectives (정책목표와 연계한 전략적 R&D 투자재원배분 및 연구과제 선정방안연구)

  • 서창교;박정우
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.61-61
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    • 1991
  • We propose a strategic R&D resource allocation and project selection model based on national R&D policy and objectives. First, contributions to R&D policy and objectives for each R&D area are evaluated by using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Second, fuzzy Delphi are proposed to estimate R&D budget for each R&D area. Then, a project selection grid is also introduced to implement two-phased evaluation for R&D project selection. We also discuss how to improve the consistency in AHP and how to reduce the pairwise comparison in AHP. The proposed model enables the decision makers to allocate R&D budget, and to evaluate and select the R&D proposals based on both the contribution to national R&D policy and objectives, and the size of each R&D area concurrently

Building a Product Design of Innovative Strategy for Creating Enterprise Development

  • Liao, Shih-Chung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Nowadays, the innovative design concept is being implemented in product design. In order to satisfy market trends and the demand for quality, designers should employ customer satisfaction questionnaires and analyze them with various experimental processes. Research design, data, and methodology - These methodologies would help designers have a better understanding of their customers and judge the market size and clustering validity, by diverse product strategies, for dealing with the rapid change prevailing in the market today. Results - By considering the innovative design with regard to telephones as an experimental case, the study investigates and demonstrates how the product can benefit from market-oriented and customized management concepts, when creative design ability is utilized for developing the product. Conclusions - Along with the benefit of having an innovative product value, the product can stimulate progress inthe development of the enterprise management, which has emerged as the main issue in the area of social and economic development in every developed country.

A Ranking Method of Fuzzy Numbers based on Users'Preference and its Application to Decision Making (사용자의 선호도를 반영하는 퍼지숫자의 정렬 방법 및 의사결정에의 응용)

  • Lee, Ji-Hyeong;Lee, Gwang-Hyeong
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.441-451
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문에서는 퍼지숫자를 정렬하는 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 방법은 사용자의 관심도나 선호도를 반영할 수 있는 방법을 제공하며, 퍼지숫자의 전체적인 가능성분포를 고려하는 평가함수를 방법은 사용자가 제사한 퍼지 집합과 만족도 함수(satisfaction fuction)를 이용하여 정렬 대상이 되는 퍼지숫자를 평가한 후 그 평가값에 따라서 순위를 정하게 된다. 만족도 함수는 두 퍼지숫자의 비교를 위해서 이전에 제안된 방법으로 퍼지숫자의 전체적인 가능성을 고려하는 특징이 있다. 본 논문에서는 제안하는 방법을 퍼지숫자 정렬에 적용한 예와 기존의 방법과 비교한 결과를 보이며, 응용 예로서 의사결정의 문제에 적용한 결과를 제시한다.

A Case Study on Risk Analysis of Large Construction Projects (건설공사를 위한 위험분석기법 사례연구)

  • Kim Chang Hak;Park Seo Young;Kwak Joong Min;Kang In-Seok
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.1155-1162
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    • 2004
  • This research proposes a new risk analysis method in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The proposed risk analysis methods consists of four phases. First step, AHP model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Finally, Fuzzy theory suggests a risk management method for construction projects, which is using subjective knowledge of an expert and linguistic value, to analyze and quantify risk. The result of study is expected to improve the accuracy of risk analysis because three factors, such as probability, impact and exposure, for estimating membership function are introduced to quantify each risk factor. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

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Model-based Ozone Forecasting System using Fuzzy Clustering and Decision tree (퍼지 클러스터링과 결정 트리를 이용한 모델기반 오존 예보 시스템)

  • 천성표;이미희;이상혁;김성신
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.458-461
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    • 2004
  • 오존 반응 메카니즘은 상당히 복잡하고 비선형적이기 때문에 오존 농도를 예측하는 것은 상당한 어려움을 안고 있다 따라서, 신뢰성 높은 오존 예측값을 구하는데 단일 예측모델만으로는 한계가 있으며, 이를 개선하기 위하여 다중 모델을 제안하였다. 입력데이터에 퍼지 클러스터링을 사용하여 고, 중, 저농도별로 그룹핑한 후, 그룹핑된 오존농도에 대해서 의사결정 트리를 사용하여 그룹핑된 오존데이터가 어느 정도 분류능력을 갖는지 파악하여, 오차가 가장 적은 분류특성을 갖는 그룹을 설정하여, 다중모델의 입력 데이터로 사용하여 모델을 형성하였다. 의사결정 트리를 이용하여 모델의 입력 데이터를 설정하는 것은 어떤 오존농도까지의 범위를 클래스로 설정하느냐에 따라서 모델의 성능과 고, 중, 저농도의 오존을 분류하는 성능이 달라지므로 본 논문에서는 퍼지 클러스터링을 이용하여 의사결정 트리의 클래스의 범위를 설정하여 예측 시스템을 구현하였다.

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A Classification Method Using Data Reduction

  • Uhm, Daiho;Jun, Sung-Hae;Lee, Seung-Joo
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2012
  • Data reduction has been used widely in data mining for convenient analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis (FA) methods are popular techniques. The PCA and FA reduce the number of variables to avoid the curse of dimensionality. The curse of dimensionality is to increase the computing time exponentially in proportion to the number of variables. So, many methods have been published for dimension reduction. Also, data augmentation is another approach to analyze data efficiently. Support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is a representative technique for dimension augmentation. The SVM maps original data to a feature space with high dimension to get the optimal decision plane. Both data reduction and augmentation have been used to solve diverse problems in data analysis. In this paper, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of dimension reduction and augmentation for classification and propose a classification method using data reduction for classification. We will carry out experiments for comparative studies to verify the performance of this research.

Development of Neutrality System using Intelligent PLC

  • Ahn, Ihn-Seok;Kim, Sang-Bin;Ahn, Kwang-Seok;Lee, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Pyung-Gi
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.179.2-179
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    • 2001
  • This paper is about to consist of neutralization public decision system which is level controled the amount of inflow and outflow water to make use of PLC in automatic system and according to numerical value of PH, which is projected into a water tank counteragent automatically. But neverthless, appearance of extended PLC, there is a limit to realize from automatic system to intellectual system which is more efficient and active. There are two problems in PLC. First, there is not generalized that a module of PLC (which is installed in PLC) is realized control algorithm form. Second, there is a difficulty of expression that provided PLC control language is realized. There fore I take fuzzy inference control technique of various intellectual algorithm and 1 make a control rule and ...

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Application of the auxiliary tunnel reinforcement design using the decision making tools based on expert system integrated fuzzy inference rule

  • Kim Changyong;Hong Sungwan;Bae Gyujin;Kim Kwangyeom
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.262-271
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    • 2003
  • Specification of reinforcement method was suggested according to the ground condition and tunnelling environment such as adjacent building and surface settlement. Tunnel database consists of 8 different groups of data according to the tunnel construction situations and major problems of ground. A tunnel countermeasure expert system based on client/server system was developed with on-line. The expert system provides proper solution to the each construction sites backing up the information of the tunnelling and ground information through Internet. The effective factors of tunnel construction were shown by the analyzing relationship and partial relationship between face stability and RMR factors. This study will be very helpful to make the most of in-situ data and suggest proper applicability of tunnel reinforcement system escaping from the dependence of some experienced experts for the absent of guide.

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Service Level Evaluation for the Airport Landside System (공항지상업무시스템에 대한 서비스 수준의 평가)

  • 박용화
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 1994
  • The new concept of level of service for the airport system indicates that there must be strong stimulation to proceed with the current stereotyped service standards which are being criticised due to their being based on, either physical capacity/volume or temporal/spatial standards that directly incorporates the perception of passengers. Quantitative factors have been dealt with the main service measurements when evaluating level of service. However, the passenger's perception for the provision service at the airport system is definitely important consideration to assess level of service. To enhance the reliability of service level evaluation from the passenger's point of view, this study has adopted three main evaluation factors ; temporal/spatial factors as quantitative measurements and comfort and reasonable service factors as qualitative measurements. The multi-decision model was constructed using Fuzzy Set Theory and applied to a case study at Seoul Kimpo International Airport. Results are presented in terms of passenger satisfaction with a variety of different values.

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