• 제목/요약/키워드: future housing

검색결과 990건 처리시간 0.041초

주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형 (Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets)

  • 원지성
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제13권8호
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

도시 주거지의 부지여건별 개발방법과 주택형식 제안 - 광주광역시 사례 연구 - (The Proposal of Development Types and Housing Forms for Urban Residential Area, Considering Urban Site Conditions - A Case Study of Gwangju City -)

  • 윤용석;양우현
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a new development method for urban residential area, considering the urban site and development conditions rather than just meeting the development limit and regulations. Gwangju Metropolitan city is investigated as a case city and the new method verifies a decision process of pertinent development types and housing forms in urban blocks. The consequences of this study are summarized as follows. The process of a new development method consists of four steps; First, current conditions of the residential area of Gwangju are analysed in order to find out the site characteristics and housing development situations. And the theoretical research is made to set up the development goals and objectives, regarding current trends and future paradigms of residential development. Next, the suitable development sites are selected, and their site characteristics and relevant development types for the future are compared and matched with a close analysis. Finally some pertinent housing forms for each development site are suggested, which fit well in terms of urban context and are appropriate for building up sustainable city in the future.

뉴욕시 사회취약계층을 위한 임대주택 '맨하탄플라자'의 특성과 함축적 의미 (The Characteristics and Implications of Rental Housing 'Manhattan Plaza' for Socially Vulnerable People in New York)

  • 이연숙;고지영;박재현
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2015
  • The fast and competitive urbanization has accelerated unbalanced land utilization and housing, thereby producing large number of decaying areas and socially disadvantaged population, while generally promoted citizen's quality of life. Since rental housing policy, therefore, has emerged as a major important issue to solve these ever increasing problems, new concepts in leading examples need to be explored to stimulate creative ideas for future housing improvement. The purpose of this research is to extract successful factors of a leading rental housing 'Manhattan Plaza' in New York city, expecting useful implications for housing improvement in Korea. Field visit and in-depth interview for data collection and qualitative approach for analysis were carried out. As results, its successful sustainability and fame were found to be attributable to following concepts, such as, socially integrative mix of diverse residents, residents' participation in management, privacy respect administration, considerate planning and design features of physical environment. The latter, especially, were prominent in peripheral spaces, indoor and outdoor community spaces, and private spaces. Based on the results, suggestions were made for future Korean rental housing development.

'최저주거기준'에 관한 국내 선행 연구경향 분석 (A Analysis on the Previous Research Trend of 'Minimum Housing Standard')

  • 현지원;이연숙;안소미
    • 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2017
  • The appropriate area for human's most basic living space is an important factor. Therefore, the 'minimum housing standard' is a very important factor to ensure a minimum quality of living space for human life. In Korea, however, the importance of the 'minimum housing standard' has been neglected for about 20 years. Even in Korea, the 'minimum housing standard' has become an nominal existence. In other countries, studies have long been conducted on the minimum housing standards, but studies have shown that studies on the minimum housing standard are not actively occurring in Korea. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the current status of the 'minimum housing standard' in Korea and to explore the direction of future research. The study included a total of 29 researches commissioned by the Korea Academic Research Institute (KCI). To ensure the objectivity and reliability of the analysis, analyzed year of research, field of research, method of research, contents of research. Through this study, it is possible to grasp the tendency of previous studies on 'minimum housing standard' in Korea and it is meaningful to increase the usability of 'minimum housing standard' in residential planning. It is also expected that future research on 'minimum housing standards' will be able to present the direction of the field to be developed.

대학생이 희망하는 신혼부부주택의 조건 (The desire of undergraduate and postgraduate students newly married housing requirements)

  • 최민혜;장주;신경주
    • 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국주거학회 2008년 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.87-91
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    • 2008
  • With the rise in national GNP, there has been a surge in people requiring adequate housing. The most who are in need of adequate housing are fresh graduates who have entered the job market, and newly-wed couples. Given the current economic condition it is difficult for young people and newly-wed couples to find reasonably affordable accommodations. In response to this, the government is trying to formulate a new policy, with the aim of helping young married couples find decent accommodation in response to the housing shortage. Research was performed last July with the aim of looking at the differences between the newlyweds' expectation of the idealistic housing and conditions. Questionnaires were distributed to undergraduate and postgraduate research students to find out their requirements. The questionnaire investigated the social background and the condition of the inhabited area; housing type internal facilities; the space required for housing; interior finishing, and storage facilities. The survey results were analyzed using SPSS and found that the design of small residential areas, the space requirements of more diversified individualized areas were the most important concerns for undergraduate and postgraduate research students. From the study we hope this will form a foundation for the design of the future housing social stratum. It is hoped that the current results and conclusions of this survey will be of help for the korean community to provide a direction and a positive input in the future design of newly married housing.

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공동주택수요의 특성과 신도시 이주성향에 관한 연구 (The Nature of Housing (Apartment) Demand and Residential Mobility)

  • 하성규;김재익
    • 지역연구
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 1990
  • The principal measure of housing demand is income and the preferences expressed by households through their respective indifference curves. In this context, housing essentially becomes a derived demand, i.e., the household consumes land and a location (or distance-in time and money costs), according to its relative preferences for space, accessibility, and all other nonhousing goods. This paper attempts to deal with both aspects of housing (apartment) demand and household mobility in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas. Housing services will be measured using hedonic regression technique. From observations on the market prices of dwelling units and on the underlying characteristics of housing, one can estimte the relationships between the two empirically. In predicting the probability of the future moves into new towns in the Seoul Metropolitan areas, the best predictors of the future moves into new best predictors are found to be the degree of satisfaction not only with the current residence as a whole, but with some of the major amenities, accessibility and child education. The reasons for moving into new towns are diverse depending on the households' current situation; the most frequently cited is "improvement of housing conditions," followed by "improvement of living environment," "asset improvement" and "home ownership". It appears that people move houses because of a dissatisfaction with their current housing status, relative their income or needs, or a desire to improve their housing and neighborhood amenities, or both. On the other hand, it is clear that the development of new towns in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas should be based on the analysis of housing demand and the pattern of household mobility in Seoul housing market.sehold mobility in Seoul housing market.

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기존스톡활용의 관점에서 본 일본의 주택스톡의 특성 (The Characteristics of Housing Stock on the basic of Stock application in Japan)

  • 박병순
    • 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국주거학회 2003년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2003
  • The characteristics of Japanese housing stock is as follows. 1. It is predicted that population from 2010 and general household from 2015 will decrease. The aging speed in Japan is faster than several advanced nations. 2. Housing shortage has resolved from 1973. In 1998, dwelling number per household is 1.13 houses and vacant dwelling rate is 11.5 percents. 3. Dwelling level of rented dwelling is lower than owner occupied houses; for instance, floor area of the former is one third of the latter. As for a household of thirties, family type household lived in rented houses reached 60 percents, it reveals that the demand exceeds the supply. 4. Houses constructed before the new earthquake resistant standard enforced from 1981 year is the half of the whole, housing improvement is needed in the future. Future housing market is changed to practical use of housing stock. Consequently, expansion of multi-habitation used a vacant housing of city dwellers, activation of the used houses distribution, growth of dwelling reform market, and activation of the rented houses are expected.

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초고층 미래주택 공모전 수상작에서 나타난 지속가능 계획특성 추출 연구 (A Study to Extract Sustainable Planning Characteristics of Future Skyscraper from Competition Awarded Housing Projects)

  • ;이연숙;강혜연
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of the study was to extract the sustainable characteristics of skyscraper housing design. Method: The method of the study was literature survey and content analysis techniques, and the target cases were 8 skyscraper housing design projects awarded from eVolo Skyscraper international competition. The sustainable features for analysis were categorized into social, cultural, economical and ecological sustainability and total 26 elements. Result: As a result, important elements were extracted, and profiles of elements in the projects were delineated, out of 26 design elements: 'Aesthetics', 'Climate Change', 'Resource Using Efficiency', 'Technical Innovation', 'local Employment' were shown dominant. While 8 projects showed the whole range of 26 elements, even though the project what by now is still an important problem for skyscraper, the result gives an insight into future sustainable skyscraper housing design.

인구구조와 가구 변화에 따른 주택공급 및 수요에 관한 연구 - 인구구조 변화의 사회적 원인을 중심으로 - (A Study on the Demand and Supply of Housing due to Population and Changes in Household - On the Social Causes of the Changes in the Population Structure in the Center -)

  • 정영수;이종국
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2014
  • The decrease in the birth rate of the modern changes in population structure changed recovery households and household members. This change was seen in the furniture sector, 2010 population housing total survey data according to the types of households and household members indicate that future changes. Problems can predict the various issues raised, and to ensure that the supply of housing of the population structure and household type is not done properly and home sales take a look at home since 2000, was popular during the 2010 State. Therefore, this study is suggesting workarounds necessary adjustments due to changes in population structure, analyze news coverage of members of households with housing demand and housing as a base quantity change in the future of furniture and home situation changes, including housing demand and supply to purpose. Specify the range of Daegu-City research studies range, national statistical data and related literature, comparative analysis of time trends and derive a conclusion.