• Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2009

To strengthen the R&D capability and the competitiveness of the Korean oriental medicine industry, an adequate supply of qualified R&D personnel including medical doctors of Korean oriental medicine is an important precondition. This study analyze current and future R&D manpower requirements including medical doctors in the Korean oriental medicine research area. Our analyses can be utilized for developing the government R&D manpower planning including the adequate supply of medical doctors for the Korean oriental medicine research. For the study, we conducted and analyzed a delphi survey of the experts, the principal investigators, with expertise in Korean oriental medicine research areas. The results of this study can be summarized as follows; First, in 2007 the Korean oriental medicine R&D personnel is currently under-supplied as many as 302 people including 111 medical doctors of Korean oriental medicine. The rate of under-supplied is 28.2%. Second, in 2017 the forecast shows that the R&D personnel in this area will be more severely under-supplied as many as 539 people including 185 medical doctor of Korean oriental medicine. The rate of under-supplied will be 32.6%. As a result, the confrontation of demand and supply forecasts shows that, in general, severe shortages of R&D manpower in the areas of Korean oriental medicine will result if there are not adequate manpower policy adjustment.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.133-144
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• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.30 no.1 s.149
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• pp.31-37
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• 2006

The purpose of this study was to value the present condition of natlwal dyeing, to forecast needs in natural dyeing world and to off the preliminary data on future direction of research and enhancement plan. The three-round Delphi tests were performed with 36 professional in the academic, the industrial, and the art world. The result of the study is as follows: Factor analysis showed the troubles were classified into 4 categories; 'dyeing', 'basis', 'industry' and 'consumer and environment'. Supplementary measures and future direction research 3categories; 'development', 'education' and 'mass production' And commercialization. popularization 2 categories; 'commercialization' and 'popularization'. 'Dyeing' is correlated with 'mass production', 'basis' with 'education' and 'education' with 'commercialization' and 'popularization'. The engaged period in natural dyeing world is longer, professionals were more concerned about 'consumer and environment' The most influential element of the present question in the view is 'education'.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.25-45
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of healthy city policies on residents' walking. In order to estimate promotion of walking rates by healthy cities policies, it developed System dynamics(SD)-based model which showed causal relationships among urban design, public health policies, and walking levels. SD technique is useful for future forecast and policy impact assessment. The spatial units of the SD-based system for policy impact assessment included 66 cities, counties, and communities in Seoul Metropolitan Area. The system simulation was planned to be run for 21 years from 2009 to 2030. For this study, 3 alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. As a result of simulations, residents' participation rates for walking were increased from 1.00% to 9.98%. This study contributes to better understanding the benefits of healthy cities that are associated with individual walking. It further provided useful insights into planners' role in promoting health. The paper concluded with a discussion on future research opportunities and implications for public policies in urban and transportation and public health.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.15-26
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• 2020

This study analyzes the Domestic Economic Ripple Effect (DERE) of the Donghae-Bukpuseon Railway (DBR). Input-Output Analysis and Scenario Analysis are employed. First, the future demand is approximately 6.86 billion people, 1.4 billion tons of logistics, and future forecast production is 1.2 trillion won for passengers, and 0.15 trillion won for logistics. Second, the production inducement (PI) coefficient of the railway industry is 2.080, the value-added inducement (VAI) coefficient is 0.680, the import inducement (II) coefficient is 0.32 and the employment inducement (EI) coefficient is 6.45. Third, for the DERE, PI is 2.846 trillion won, VAI is 0.939 trillion won, II is 0.446 trillion won, and EI is 8,737 people/1 billion won. Fourth, PI is approximately 2.8 trillion won, and the payback period is 35 years. Scenario 1 (a 50% increase in the demand for tourism) takes approximately 27 years, Scenario 2 (an 100% increase), 20 years, and Scenario3 (an 150% increase), 16 years. The successful way of the DBR is to enlarge the linkage effect of trans-railways for which international cooperation and agreements are needed. Also, even if the DBR is isolated due to worsening inter-Korea relations, the development of tourism resources is important for public investment feasibility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.207-215
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• 2021

The number of tourists visiting Nepal has shown rapid growth in recent years, and Nepal is expecting more tourist arrivals in the future. This paper, thus, attempts to analyze the tourist arrivals in Nepal and predict the number of visitors until 2025. This paper has examined the international tourist arrival trend in Nepal using the Gompertz and Logistic growth model. The international tourist arrival data from 1991 to 2018 is used to investigate international tourist arrival trends. The result of the analysis found that the Gompertz model performs a better fit than the Logistic model. The study further forecast the expected tourist arrival below one million (844,319) by 2025. Nevertheless, the government of Nepal has the goal of two million tourists in a year. The present study also discusses system dynamics scenarios for the two million potential visitors within a year. Scenario analysis shows that proper advertisement and positive word-of-mouth will be key factors in achieving a higher number of tourists. The current study could fill the gap of theoretical and empirical forecasting of tourist arrivals in the Nepalese tourism industry. Also, the study findings would be beneficial for government officers, planners and investors, and policy-makers in the Nepalese tourism industry.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.815-831
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• 2021

Drought forecasting is crucial to minimize the damage to food security and water resources caused by drought. Satellite-based drought research has been conducted since 1980s, which includes drought monitoring, assessment, and prediction. Unlike numerous studies on drought monitoring and assessment for the past few decades, satellite-based drought forecasting has gained popularity in recent years. For successful drought forecasting, it is necessary to carefully identify the relationships between drought factors and drought conditions by drought type and lead time. This paper aims to provide an overview of recent research trends and challenges for satellite-based drought forecasts focusing on lead times. Based on the recent literature survey during the past decade, the satellite-based drought forecasting studies were divided into three groups by lead time (i.e., short-term, sub-seasonal, and seasonal) and reviewed with the characteristics of the predictors (i.e., drought factors) and predictands (i.e., drought indices). Then, three major challenges-difficulty in model generalization, model resolution and feature selection, and saturation of forecasting skill improvement-were discussed, which led to provide several future research directions of satellite-based drought forecasting.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.9-17
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• 2022

In the COVID-19 pandemic era, non-contact services were demanded and the use of extended reality and metaverse services increased rapidly in various applications. In this paper, we analyze Gather.town, ifland, Roblox, and ZEPETO metaverse platforms in terms of user interaction, avatar-based interaction, and virtual world authoring. Especially, we distinguish interactions among user input techniques that occur in the real world, avatar representation techniques to represent users in the virtual world, and interaction types that create a virtual world through user participation. Based on this work, we highlight the current trends and needs of human-metaverse interaction and forecast future opportunities and research directions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.183-189
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• 2023

As South Korea faces a general decline in population, similar to other regions, its rural areas are also experiencing a downward trend. This study examines how the scale and shifts in population within rural towns(eup·myeon) are affecting the number of essential services such as hospitals, laundry shops, and beauty salons. Our analysis encompassed the populations of 1,403 towns, excluding nine areas due to lack of data as of 2020. Since the availability of basic services can vary with population size, we normalized the figures to reflect the number of services per 10,000 people, allowing for a comparative analysis across different population sizes. Generally, areas with more people showed an increase in the number of services per capita. Our review of changes from 2000 to 2020 revealed patterns in how service numbers adjust with population variations. Future research should delve into more detailed trends of these facilities and forecast the rural population's future to ensure that residents in areas where service sustainability may be challenging will have full access to necessary services.

• Archives of design research
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• v.20 no.1 s.69
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• pp.5-20
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• 2007

The aim of this research is to find out the flows of mega-trends and design trends by analyzing the factors that influence trend and design trends in the late 20th century. Moreover, it is to forecast and recommend design color trends by evaluating color trends in design trends for the near future. Secondary and primary research were used in parallel. In the late 20th century, mega-trends were analyzed from secondary research based on PEST. Design trends were analyzed from case studies in fashion, space, product and visual design. On this basis, design color trends were analyzed. Also, color trends were forecast for the near future. The results are as follows. Firstly, the main trends in the late 20th century were 'female thinking', 'back to the nature' and 'heaven of peace'. Second, main design trends in the 1970s were modernism, post-modernism and high-tech. In the 1980s, with those of the 1970s, ecology was introduced In the late 1980s. In the 1990s, modernism rose again and ecology had an influence. The trends of 'female thinking' and 'back to the nature' controled the design in the early 2000s. Third, design colors in the late 20th century changed from Red to Purple Blue. Tones changed from 'grayish' to 'dull' Finally, it was forecast that Purple Blue, Yellow Red and Green colors with 'grayish', 'dull' and 'deep' tones were going to be used mainly in the near future. Also, achromatic colors with female and warm nuances would be reflected in design parts. This research will be very useful in that it has built a concrete database reflected on design trends forecasting in the near future by organizing academically a methodology to identify trends reflected on design and identifying relation between mega-trends and design trends based on analyzing factors that influence trend.