• Title/Summary/Keyword: future forecast

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Informative Role of Marketing Activity in Financial Market: Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Dispersion

  • Oh, Yun Kyung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2013
  • As advertising and promotions are categorized as operating expenses, managers tend to reduce marketing budget to improve their short term profitability. Gauging the value and accountability of marketing spending is therefore considered as a major research priority in marketing. To respond this call, recent studies have documented that financial market reacts positively to a firm's marketing activity or marketing related outcomes such as brand equity and customer satisfaction. However, prior studies focus on the relation of marketing variable and financial market variables. This study suggests a channel about how marketing activity increases firm valuation. Specifically, we propose that a firm's marketing activity increases the level of the firm's product market information and thereby the dispersion in financial analysts' earnings forecasts decreases. With less uncertainty about the firm's future prospect, the firm's managers and shareholders have less information asymmetry, which reduces the firm's cost of capital and thereby increases the valuation of the firm. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine how informational benefits can mediate the effect of marketing activity on firm value. To test whether marketing activity contributes to increase in firm value by mitigating information asymmetry, this study employs a longitudinal data which contains 12,824 firm-year observations with 2,337 distinct firms from 1981 to 2006. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q and one-year-ahead buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). Following prior literature, dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts is used as a proxy for the information gap between management and shareholders. For model specification, to identify mediating effect, the three-step regression approach is adopted. All models are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to test the statistical significance of the mediating effect. The analysis shows that marketing intensity has a significant negative relationship with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts. After including the mediator variable about analyst dispersion, the effect of marketing intensity on firm value drops from 1.199 (p < .01) to 1.130 (p < .01) in Tobin's Q model and the same effect drops from .192 (p < .01) to .188 (p < .01) in BHAR model. The results suggest that analysts' forecast dispersion partially accounts for the positive effect of marketing on firm valuation. Additionally, the same analysis was conducted with an alternative dependent variable (forecast accuracy) and a marketing metric (advertising intensity). The analysis supports the robustness of the main results. In sum, the results provide empirical evidence that marketing activity can increase shareholder value by mitigating problem of information asymmetry in the capital market. The findings have important implications for managers. First, managers should be cognizant of the role of marketing activity in providing information to the financial market as well as to the consumer market. Thus, managers should take into account investors' reaction when they design marketing communication messages for reducing the cost of capital. Second, this study shows a channel on how marketing creates shareholder value and highlights the accountability of marketing. In addition to the direct impact of marketing on firm value, an indirect channel by reducing information asymmetry should be considered. Potentially, marketing managers can justify their spending from the perspective of increasing long-term shareholder value.

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Establishment of Geospatial Schemes Based on Topo-Climatology for Farm-Specific Agrometeorological Information (농장맞춤형 농업기상정보 생산을 위한 소기후 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.146-157
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    • 2019
  • One of the most distinctive features of the South Korean rural environment is that the variation of weather or climate is large even within a small area due to complex terrains. The Geospatial Schemes based on Topo-Climatology (GSTP) was developed to simulate such variations effectively. In the present study, we reviewed the progress of the geospatial schemes for production of farm-scale agricultural weather data. Efforts have been made to improve the GSTP since 2000s. The schemes were used to provide climate information based on the current normal year and future climate scenarios at a landscape scale. The digital climate maps for the normal year include the maps of the monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation in the past 30 years at 30 m or 270 m spatial resolution. Based on these digital climate maps, future climate change scenario maps were also produced at the high spatial resolution. These maps have been used for climate change impact assessment at the field scale by reprocessing them and transforming them into various forms. In the 2010s, the GSTP model was used to produce information for farm-specific weather conditions and weather forecast data on a landscape scale. The microclimate models of which the GSTP model consists have been improved to provide detailed weather condition data based on daily weather observation data in recent development. Using such daily data, the Early warning service for agrometeorological hazard has been developed to provide weather forecasts in real-time by processing a digital forecast and mid-term weather forecast data (KMA) at 30 m spatial resolution. Currently, daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation quantity, and the duration of sunshine are forecasted as detailed weather conditions and forecast information. Moreover, based on farm-specific past-current-future weather information, growth information for various crops and agrometeorological disaster forecasts have been produced.

Future Domestic Water Demand, Surface Water Availability and Vulnerability Across Rapidly Growing Asian Megacities

  • Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.144-144
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    • 2021
  • The rapid urbanization in many Asian countries has taken millions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated megacities, which eventually putting pressure on the existing water resources. The over-growing population and increasing living standard of people in the urban region of developed as well as developing countries such as Korea, China, Japan and India have witnessed a drastic change in terms of domestic water demand for the past few decades. In this study, we used the concept of potential surface water availability in the form of surface runoff for future vulnerability assessment. We focused on 42 megacities having population more than 5 million as per the United Nations (UN) census data 2020. The study shows that 30 out of 42 cities having more than 180L/p/d demand for domestic use based on various references. We have predicted the domestic water demand for all the cities on the basis of current per capita demand up to 2035 using UN projected population data. We found that the projected water demand in megacities such as Seoul, Busan, Shanghai, Ghuanzou are increasing because of high population as well as GDP growth rate. On the contrary, megacities of Japan considered in our stud shows less water demand in future due to decreasing trend of population. As per the past records provided by the local municipalities/authorities, we projected different scenarios based on the future supply for various megacities such as Chennai, Delhi, Karachi, Mumbai, Shanghai, Wuhan, etc. We found that the supply to demand ratio of these cities would be below 75% for future period and if such trend continues then the inhabitants will face serious water stress conditions. Outcomes of this study would help the local policy makers to adopt sustainable initiatives on urban water governance to avoid the severe water stress conditions in the vulnerable megacities.

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A Regional Study for Low-Income Affordable Housing Plan - With a Focus on Lansing Metropolitan Area in Michigan, USA - (미국 지방정부의 저소득층을 위한 부담가능주택 수요분석 및 정책사례 연구 - 미시건주 및 랜싱도시권을 사례로 -)

  • Lee, Jae Choon
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2016
  • This paper introduced the affordable housing support programs and system of the State of Michigan and Lansing Metropolitan Area and reviewed the affordable housing plan of Lansing area. This paper also examined their challenges and efforts to solve the affordable housing issues with additional analysis. The affordable housing planning process was also presented with a comprehensive analysis and future prediction of demographic characteristics and housing supply and demand for affordable housing. Especially, the trend and future forecast of the elderly and low-income households who have a significant impact on the affordable housing demand are considered. The U.S. and South Korea have different housing characteristics and situations. A part of the plan and suggestions of Lansing are somewhat unfamiliar, and it is difficult to introduce their suggestions into our policies. However, the affordable housing plan of Lansing Metropolitan Area suggested various solutions to solve the issues, and some of them deserve to be considered on our housing policy making.

PERFORMANCE OF THE AUTOREGRESSIVE METHOD IN LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF SUNSPOT NUMBER

  • Chae, Jongchul;Kim, Yeon Han
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2017
  • The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

Business Trends in Geo-Spatial Information and Service Market

  • Heo, Joon
    • 한국공간정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.351-354
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    • 2005
  • NASA's remote sensing market analysis and forecast projects 3.3 billion dollars in 2005. On the other hand, a market research firm expected that world commercial remote sensing imagery, GIS software, Data, and value-added services will generate 8.3 billion dollar in 2007. It has been widely believed that geo-spatial information and service market is growing rapidly and has a huge potential, but it is not clearly understood where it is now and will be heading in the future. Also, it could be a significant question to answer where the industry in Korea fits the best in the world business trends and where it should be strategically heading to take a large market share. Furthermore, if it could be worth being considered as a Korean strategic industry for the future. Instead of pursuing direct answers to the questions, the author will start reviewing general business practices, major business transactions such as merging and acquisitions (M&A's) and initial public offerings (IPO's), and research on market capitalization and revenue of major companies. Throughout the study, a list of common grounds in the market was uncovered and realized as follows: (1) value-added data matters in geo-spatial information and service market; (2) private sector grows faster; (3) characteristics of multi-national industry; and (4) Dependency on major industry. Based on the findings, the author presents a list of recommendations as conclusions.

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Forecasting Ecosystem Changes in Virtual Reality Game Industry using Scenario Network Mapping (가상현실게임 산업의 생태계 변화 예측 및 대응 전략)

  • Rhee, Chang Seop;Rhee, Hyunjung
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2018
  • Virtual Reality(VR) is one of the most remarkable technologies in the current game industry. Nevertheless, it is difficult for the game industry to actively invest in the VR technology because of the technical problems to overcome and the uncertainty about the market possibility. Therefore, this study attempts to estimate the future possibilities of the VR game market in various angles. For the purpose, we explore the domestic game market from the past to the present, and forecast the game industry ecosystem using the Scenario Network Mapping. Based on the result, we propose a short and long term future prospect and suggest the possible strategies for each stakeholder of the VR game market.

A Study on Future Container Cranes (차세대 컨테이너크레인에 대한 고찰)

  • Jung Hyun-Soo;Lee Suk-Jae;Hong Keum-Shik
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.29 no.3 s.99
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2005
  • In this article. the specifications of a future container crane for a 18,000 TEU megaship are investigated After studying the transitions of containerships through the past half century, the characteristics of the past and current container cranes are outlined. together with various research trends throughout the world Upon these results, the size and performance of the container crane that will be used beyond the year 2014 are forecast. Specifically, the structure, trolley and hoist mechanism, control method, outreach. backreach, rail gage, loading capacity, stability, durability, and others are summarized.

An Investigation into the Change Tendency of Interior Design in future Korean Apartments (우리나라 미래 아파트 실내디자인 변화전망에 관한 연구)

  • 지성수
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2004
  • The co-operated residential form of the apartment has been with us for 30 years. The apartment is becoming the most popular form of residence, although there is still a few aspects of the apartment that need to be Improved. After the institution of the unrestrained house value in 1989 that started in Seoul, the main viewpoint of the suppliers the uniform characteristic idea has been adjusted to the various ideas and the viewpoint of the consumer. This has resulted in the prismatic composition of buildings, more stories, upgrading the quality of the design and a preference for wider space of the residence. In this study: (1) theplane surface of interior space and the design quality of the apartment from tile beginning of the 60s are considered. (2) The attribute of the apartment is grasped through analysis of the current (2002-2003) apartment within the country according to the various areas. The prediction of the future residential environment change is analyzed and as a consequence, the modification of the interior space is forecast and suggests the design trends of the apartment. I hope that this, investigation is helpful as it attempts to produce high quality residential space that reflects the harmony of technological development of the apartment and sentiment and emotion of the human being.

Optimization of Vinalines Fleet Structure in Short-term Future by Applying Linear programing and AIMMS software

  • Le, Thanh Van;Kim, Sung-june
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.171-172
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    • 2015
  • Vinalines is actually known as not only one of Vietnam's state-sponsored economic giants but also the largest shipowner by tonnage in Vietnamese shipping industry. Therefore, a question of how to improve business performance of the corporation is always received deep attention by Vietnamese government, specially after the seriously economic scandal of Vinalines in a last few years. Among development strategies, the study focuses on short-term one in which Vinalines is recommended to restructure its own fleet in order to optimize performance of fleet operation and minimize costs while meeting the customer's shipping demand in near future. The first section is of introduction. Via method of statistical data analysis, section 2 brings to readers a panorama about the development profile and the current situation of development of Vinalines. In section 3, the authors use linear programming for setting a cost-minimization model optimizing Vinalines fleet structure based on available statistics and forecast information by Vinalines. The optimization problem is solved by applying AIMMS software in section 4. Finally, some conclusions and proposals by authors for the development of Vinalines are given.

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