• 한국환경보건학회지
• /
• 제39권1호
• /
• pp.19-31
• /
• 2013

Objectives: Elevated temperatures during summer months have been reported since the early 20th century to be associated with increased daily mortality. However, future death impacts of high temperatures resulting from climate change could be variously estimated in consideration of the future changes in historical temperature-mortality relationships, mortality, and population. This study examined the future death burden of high temperatures resulting from climate change in Seoul over the period of 2001-2040. Methods: We calculated yearly death burden attributable to high temperatures stemming from climate change in Seoul from 2001-2040. These future death burdens from high temperature were computed by multiplying relative risk, temperature, mortality, and population at any future point. To incorporate adaptation, we assumed future changes in temperature-mortality relationships (i.e. threshold temperatures and slopes), which were estimated as short-term temperature effects using a Poisson regression model. Results: The results show that climate change will lead to a substantial increase in summer high temperature-related death burden in the future, even considering adaptation by the population group. The yearly death burden attributable to elevated temperatures ranged from approximately 0.7 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001-2010 to about 1.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Seoul in 2036-2040. Conclusions: This study suggests that adaptation strategies and communication regarding future health risks stemming from climate change are necessary for the public and for the political leadership of South Korea.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제52권6호
• /
• pp.27-37
• /
• 2010

The effect of potential future climate change on the storage rate of paddy field during storm periods (June - September) was assessed using the daily paddy water balance model. The CCCma CGCM2 data by SRES (special report on emissions scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) was used to assess the future potential climate change. The future weather data for the year 2020s, 2050s and 2080s was downscaled by Change Factor method through bias-correction using 30 years weather data. The future (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) rainfall, storage and irrigation of paddy field, runoff in paddy levee and ponding depth were analyzed for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios based on a base year (2005). The future irrigation change of paddy field was projected to increase by decrease in rainfall. So, runoff change in paddy levee was decrease slightly, future storage change of paddy was projected to increase.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
• /
• 제24권1호
• /
• pp.45-55
• /
• 2008

The impact on streamflow and groundwater recharge considering future potential climate and land use change was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for a $260.4km^2$ which has been continuously urbanized during the past couple of decades. The model was calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.8 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 0.5, respectively. The CCCma CGCM2 data by two SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the future weather data was downscaled by Delta Change Method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. The future land uses were predicted by CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data of Landsat images. The future land uses showed that the forest and paddy area decreased 10.8 % and 6.2 % respectively while the urban area increased 14.2 %. For the future vegetation cover information, a linear regression between monthly NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from NOAA/AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using five years (1998 - 2002) data was derived for each land use class. The future highest NDVI value was 0.61 while the current highest NDVI value was 0.52. The model results showed that the future predicted runoff ratio ranged from 46 % to 48 % while the present runoff ratio was 59 %. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 3 % increase comparing with the present land use condition. The streamflow and groundwater recharge was big decrease in the future.

• 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국측량학회 2010년 춘계학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.383-385
• /
• 2010

This study analyzed the change of flowout and suspend solid in Andong and Imha basin according to the climate change to develop evaluation index about turbid water occurrence possibility and to support the countermeasures for turbid water management using GIS-based Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT). MIROC3.2 hires model values of A1B climate change scenario that were supplied by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were applied to future climage change data. Precipitation and temperature were corrected by applying the output value of 20th Century Climate Coupled Model (20C3M) based on past climate data during 1977 and 2006 and downscaled with Change Factor (CF) method. And future climate change scenarios were classified as three periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) and the change of flowout and suspended solid according to the climate change were estimated by coupling modeled value with SWAT model.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제22권1호
• /
• pp.109-116
• /
• 2013

By IPCC climate change scenario, the socioeconomic actions such as the land use change are closely associated with the climate change as an up zoning action of urban development to increase green gas emission to atmosphere. Prediction of the land use change with rational quality can provide better data for understanding of the climate change in future. This study aims to predict land use change of Cheongju in future and SLEUTH model is used to anticipate with the status quo condition, in which the pattern of land use change in future follows the chronical tendency of land use change during last 25 years. From 40 years prediction since 2000 year, the area urbanized compared with 2000 year increases up to 87.8% in 2040 year. The ratios of the area urbanized from agricultural area and natural area in 2040 are decreased to 53.1% and 15.3%, respectively.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제24권12호
• /
• pp.1649-1656
• /
• 2015

Jeju Island is the highest rain-prone area in Korea that possesses affluent water resources, but future climate changes are predicted to further increase vulnerabilities as resultant of increasing of extreme events and creating spatial-temporal imbalance in water resources. Therefore, this study aimed to provide basic information to establish a proper water resources management plan by evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources using climate change scenario. Direct runoff ratio for 15 years (2000~2014) was analyzed to be 11~32% (average of 23%), and average direct runoff ratio for the next 86 years (2015~2100) was found as 28%, showing an increase of about 22% compared to the present average direct runoff ratio (23%). To assess the effects of climate change on long-term runoff, monthly runoff variation of future Gangjeong watershed was analyzed by dividing three time periods as follows: Present (2000~2030), Future 1 (2031~2070) and Future 2 (2071~2100). The estimated results showed that average monthly runoff increases in the future and the highest runoff is shown by Future 2. Extreme values has been expected to occur more frequently in the future as compared to the present.

• 환경생물
• /
• 제35권1호
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2017

Climate change is the biggest concern of the $21^{st}$ century. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from various sectors are attracting attention as a cause of climate change. The DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model simulates GHG emissions from cropland. To study future GHG emissions using this simulation model, various factors that could change in future need to be considered. Because most problems are from the agricultural sector, DNDC would be unable to solve the factor-changing problem itself. Hence, it is necessary to link DNDC with separate models that simulate each element. Climate change is predicted to cause a variety of environmental disasters in the future, having a significant impact on the agricultural environment. In the process of human adaptation to environmental change, the distribution and management methods of farmland will also change greatly. In this study, we introduce some drawbacks of DNDC in considering future changes, and present other existing models that can rectify the same. We further propose some combinations with models and development sub-models.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제56권2호
• /
• pp.11-23
• /
• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• 농업과학연구
• /
• 제48권3호
• /
• pp.433-446
• /
• 2021

In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

• 문화기술의 융합
• /
• 제8권6호
• /
• pp.873-879
• /
• 2022

미래는 인공지능과 메타버스가 세상을 삼킬 정도로 활용 영역과 영향력이 강력해지고 있다. 광고 분야도 예외가 아니어서 이러한 미래 변화를 예측하고 분석하여 전략화하는 것이 더욱 중요해지고 있다. 인공지능과 메타버스 발전에 따른 광고의 미래 변화 연구를 위해 인공지능과 메타버스 기술 발전과 이에 따른 광고 환경 변화 관련한 문헌연구와 미래 및 광고 전문가를 대상으로 한 심층 인터뷰와 델파이 기법 연구 방법을 통해 광고 변화에 대해 연구하고자 한다. 본 연구를 통해 먼저 포스트코로나 문명대변혁시대에 인공지능과 메타버스 기술 발전과 이에 따른 광고부문의 변화에 대한 전문가의 의견을 심층 인터뷰를 통해 살펴보고자 한다. 그리고 델파이 기법으로 미래광고 기술영역, 미래광고 미디어영역, 미래광고 형태영역, 미래광고 효과영역, 미래광고 적용영역, 미래광고 프로세스영역별로 변화가 어느 정도 중요하며 미래 어느 시점에 주요하게 변화할 것인지를 파악하고 또한 미래광고 형태는 구체적으로 어떻게 변화할 지에 대해 연구하고자 한다. 또한 이를 근거로 광고업계의 대응 방안을 제안하고자 한다.