• 제목/요약/키워드: freight flows

검색결과 13건 처리시간 0.015초

확률변동성 모형을 적용한 해운산업의 벙커가격과 환율 리스크 추정 (Application to the Stochastic Modelling of Risk Measurement in Bunker Price and Foreign Exchange Rate on the Maritime Industry)

  • 김현석
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 해운기업의 주요 비용요인 벙커 가격과 환율의 불확실성으로 인한 재무적 리스크를 수치화하는 방법론을 2010년 1월 1일부터 2018년 1월 31일까지의 일별자료를 대상으로 적용한다. 기하브라운 운동 (Geometric Brownian Motion 이하 GBM)과 이를 확장한 조건부 이분산성(heteroskedasticity) 및 점프 확산 프로세스(jump diffusion process)에 의존하는 모형으로부터 추정한 현금 흐름 리스크 추정치는 다음 세 가지 학술적 기여로 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 운임수익률과 같은 단일 변수에 의존한 리스크 분석을 벙커가격과 환율 수익률 변동성과 같이 복합요인으로부터 발생하는 영향으로 분석을 확장하였다. 둘째, 개별기업 수준에서 벙커가격과 환율 리크스 관리의 필요성을 민감도 분석을 통해 현금흐름수준으로 제시하였다. 마지막으로 분석결과가 제시하는 리스크 규모를 근거로 해운기업은 리스크 관리를 위한 수단으로 무엇이 적절한가를 고민해야 할 필요성이 있음을 제기한다.

SNA 분석을 이용한 해상 수출입화물의 네트워크 구조와 국내 항만의 중심성 분석 (An Analysis on the Centrality of Domestic Areas and Ports: Using SNA Methodology)

  • 김주혜;김치열
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.25-43
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    • 2022
  • 과거와 달리 물류를 공간적, 서비스 영역의 확장에 따라 네트워크 관점으로 해석해야하는 노력이 필요하다. 또한 다양한 환경의 변화로 물류 네트워크 역시 급변하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 사회네트워크 분석을 이용하여 해상 수출입화물의 구조와 국내 항만의 중심성의 변화 추이를 분석하는데 목적을 두었다. 2005~2020년 기간에 5년 간격의 국내 해상 수출입화물의 전체 교역데이터를 사용하여, 우리나라 해상 수출입화물의 네트워크 구조의 변화를 알아보았으며, 국내 항만의 중심성에 영향을 끼치는 주요 요인을 알 수 있었다. 분석결과로는 연결 중심성은 울산항이 가장 높으며, 내향 근접 중심성은 부산, 인천항, 외향 근접 중심성은 부산, 울산항 순으로 분석되었다. 중개자 역할의 항만이라고 볼 수 있는 매개 중심성이 가장 높은 항만은 부산, 울산항 순으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 항만의 중심성 지표의 변화와 해상화물 네트워크 파악을 토대로 20년간의 국내 수출입화물 교역에 관련한 일련의 패턴을 예측하고 리스크를 대비하는 참고자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

"무역상무(貿易商務)에의 역사적(歷史的) 어프로치와 무역취인(貿易取引)의 전자화(電子化)" (E-Commerce in the Historical Approach to Usage and Practice of International Trade)

  • 춘홍차
    • 무역상무연구
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    • 제19권
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    • pp.224-242
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    • 2003
  • The author believes that the main task of study in international trade usage and practice is the management of transactional risks involved in international sale of goods. They are foreign exchange risks, transportation risks, credit risk, risk of miscommunication, etc. In most cases, these risks are more serious and enormous than those involved in domestic sales. Historically, the merchant adventurers organized the voyage abroad, secured trade finance, and went around the ocean with their own or consigned cargo until around the $mid-19^{th}$ century. They did business faceto-face at the trade fair or the open port where they maintained the local offices, so-called "Trading House"(商館). Thererfore, the transactional risks might have been one-sided either with the seller or the buyer. The bottomry seemed a typical arrangement for risk sharing among the interested parties to the adventure. In this way, such organizational arrangements coped with or bore the transactional risks. With the advent of ocean liner services and wireless communication across the national border in the $19^{th}$ century, the business of merchant adventurers developed toward the clear division of labor; sales by mercantile agents, and ocean transportation by the steam ship companies. The international banking helped the process to be accelerated. Then, bills of lading backed up by the statute made it possible to conduct documentary sales with a foreign partner in different country. Thus, FOB terms including ocean freight and CIF terms emerged gradually as standard trade terms in which transactional risks were allocated through negotiation between the seller and the buyer located in different countries. Both of them did not have to go abroad with their cargo. Instead, documentation in compliance with the terms of the contract(plus an L/C in some cases) must by 'strictly' fulfilled. In other words, the set of contractual documents must be tendered in advance of the arrival of the goods at port of discharge. Trust or reliance is placed on such contractual paper documents. However, the container transport services introduced as international intermodal transport since the late 1960s frequently caused the earlier arrival of the goods at the destination before the presentation of the set of paper documents, which may take 5 to 10% of the amount of transaction. In addition, the size of the container vessel required the speedy transport documentation before sailing from the port of loading. In these circumstances, computerized processing of transport related documents became essential for inexpensive transaction cost and uninterrupted distribution of the goods. Such computerization does not stop at the phase of transportation but extends to cover the whole process of international trade, transforming the documentary sales into less-paper trade and further into paperless trade, i.e., EDI or E-Commerce. Now we face the other side of the coin, which is data security and paperless transfer of legal rights and obligations. Unfortunately, these issues are not effectively covered by a set of contracts only. Obviously, EDI or E-Commerce is based on the common business process and harmonized system of various data codes as well as the standard message formats. This essential feature of E-Commerce needs effective coordination of different divisions of business and tight control over credit arrangements in addition to the standard contract of sales. In a few word, information does not alway invite "trust". Credit flows from people, or close organizational tie-ups. It is our common understanding that, without well-orchestrated organizational arrangements made by leading companies, E-Commerce does not work well for paperless trade. With such arrangements well in place, participating E-business members do not need to seriously care for credit risk. Finally, it is also clear that E-International Commerce must be linked up with a set of government EDIs such as NACCS, Port EDI, JETRAS, etc, in Japan. Therefore, there is still a long way before us to go for E-Commerce in practice, not on the top of information manager's desk.

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