• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.253-261
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• 2018

This article details a bridge-specific fragility method developed to enhance the seismic design and resilience of bridges. Current seismic design processes provide guidance for the design of a bridge that will not collapse during a design hazard event. However, they do not provide performance information of the bridge at different hazard levels or due to design changes. Therefore, there is a need for a supplement to this design process that will provide statistical information on the performance of a bridge, beyond traditional emphases on collapse prevention. This article proposes a bridge-specific parameterized fragility method to enable efficient estimation of various levels of damage probability for alternative bridge design parameters. A multi-parameter demand model is developed to incorporate bridge design details directly in the fragility estimation. Monte Carlo simulation and Logistic regression are used to determine the fragility of the bridge or bridge component. The resulting parameterized fragility model offers a basis for a bridge-specific design tool to explore the influence of design parameter variation on the expected performance of a bridge. When used as part of the design process, these tools can help to transform a prescriptive approach into a more performance-based approach, efficiently providing probabilistic performance information about a new bridge design. An example of the method and resulting fragility estimation is presented.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.285-292
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• 2020

The methodology classifying structural types of concrete buildings in the existing seismic fragility functions is too simple to estimate the fragility of existing residential buildings and neighborhood living facilities, especially those below five stories. Their structural types are dependent on information contained in the building register such as main use, total floor area, story, permission date, and first story floor area of the individual building. All of this information is not considered for classifying types in the existing functions; therefore, the goal of this study was to suggest a methodology that classifies structural types of concrete buildings by utilizing such information. The results of this study showed that the suggested methodology can classify structural types better than the existing methodology. Nevertheless, there is still a need to simplify the methodology because fragility estimation demands quickness rather than accuracy.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.503-515
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• 2022

This paper presents the development of seismic fragility curves for a precast reinforced concrete bridge instrumented with a structural health monitoring (SHM) system. The bridge is located near an active seismic fault in the Dominican Republic (DR) and provides the only access to several local communities in the aftermath of a potential damaging earthquake; moreover, the sample bridge was designed with outdated building codes and uses structural detailing not adequate for structures in seismic regions. The bridge was instrumented with an SHM system to extract information about its state of structural integrity and estimate its seismic performance. The data obtained from the SHM system is integrated with structural models to develop a set of fragility curves to be used as a quantitative measure of the expected damage; the fragility curves provide an estimate of the probability that the structure will exceed different damage limit states as a function of an earthquake intensity measure. To obtain the fragility curves a digital twin of the bridge is developed combining a computational finite element model and the information extracted from the SHM system. The digital twin is used as a response prediction tool that minimizes modeling uncertainty, significantly improving the predicting capability of the model and the accuracy of the fragility curves. The digital twin was used to perform a nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) with selected ground motions that are consistent with the seismic fault and site characteristics. The fragility curves show that for the maximum expected acceleration (with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) the structure has a 62% probability of undergoing extensive damage. This is the first study presenting fragility curves for civil infrastructure in the DR and the proposed methodology can be extended to other structures to support disaster mitigation and post-disaster decision-making strategies.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.63 no.1
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• pp.47-53
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• 2017

The fundamental goal of this study is to minimize the uncertainty of the median fragility curve and to assess the structural vulnerability under earthquake excitation. Bayesian Inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been presented for efficient collapse response assessment of the independent intake water tower. The intake tower is significantly used as a diversion type of the hydropower station for maintaining power plant, reservoir and spillway tunnel. Therefore, the seismic fragility assessment of the intake tower is a pivotal component for estimating total system risk of the reservoir. In this investigation, an asymmetrical independent slender reinforced concrete structure is considered. The Bayesian Inference method provides the flexibility to integrate the prior information of collapse response data with the numerical analysis results. The preliminary information of risk data can be obtained from various sources like experiments, existing studies, and simplified linear dynamic analysis or nonlinear static analysis. The conventional lognormal model is used for plotting the fragility curve using the data from time history simulation and nonlinear static pushover analysis respectively. The Bayesian Inference approach is applied for integrating the data from both analyses with the help of MCMC simulation. The method achieves meaningful improvement of uncertainty associated with the fragility curve, and provides significant statistical and computational efficiency.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.226-232
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• 2000

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment(RA) rather than deterministic assessment provides more valuable information and insight for resolving seismic safety issues in nuclear power plant design. In the course of seismic PRA seismic fragility analysis is the most significant and essential phase especially for structural or mechanical engineers. Lately the seismic fragility analysis is taken as a useful tool in general structural engineering as well. A systemized and synthesized procedure or technology related to seismic fragility analysis of critical industrial facilities reflecting the unique experiences and database in Korea is urgently required. This paper gives a state-of-the-art reviews of PRA and briefly summarizes the technologies related to PRA and seismic fragility analysis before developing an unique technology considering characteristics of Korean database. Some key items to be resolved theoretically or technically are extracted and presented for the future research.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.217-230
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• 2006

This paper describes a procedure to develop fragility curves for woodframe structures subjected to lateral wind loads. The fragilities are cast in terms of horizontal displacement criteria (maximum drift at the top of the shearwalls). The procedure is illustrated through the development of fragility curves for one and two-story residential woodframe buildings in high wind regions. The structures were analyzed using a monotonic pushover analysis to develop the relationship between displacement and base shear. The base shear values were then transformed to equivalent nominal wind speeds using information on the geometry of the baseline buildings and the wind load equations (and associated parameters) in ASCE 7-02. Displacement vs. equivalent nominal wind speed curves were used to determine the critical wind direction, and Monte Carlo simulation was used along with wind load parameter statistics provided by Ellingwood and Tekie (1999) to construct displacement vs. wind speed curves. Wind speeds corresponding to a presumed limit displacement were used to construct fragility curves. Since the fragilities were fit well using a lognormal CDF and had similar logarithmic standard deviations (${\xi}$), a quick analysis to develop approximate fragilities is possible, and this also is illustrated. Finally, a compound fragility curve, defined as a weighted combination of individual fragilities, is developed.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.1-7
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• 2008

This paper presents not only the robust stabilization technique but also robust non-fragile controller design method for discrete-time singular systems and static state feedback controller with multiplicative uncertainty. The condition for the existence of robust stabilization controller, the admissible controller design method, and the measure of non-fragility in controller are proposed via LMI(linear matrix inequality) approach. In order to get the maximum measure of non-fragility, the obtained sufficient condition can be rewritten as LMI optimization form in terms of transformed variable. Therefore, the presented robust non-fragile controller for discrete-time singular systems guarantees robust stability in spite of parameter uncertainty and controller fragility. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the validity of the design method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.235-247
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• 2023

Bingöl, a city in eastern Türkiye, is located at a very close distance to the Karlıova Region which is a junction point of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone. By bilateral step over of North Anatolian Fault Zone and Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone each other there occurred NorthWest-SouthEast extended right-lateral and NorthEast-SouthWest extended left-lateral fault zones. In this paper, a typical school building located in Bingöl Çeltiksuyu was selected as the case study. Information on the school building and Bingöl Earthquake (2003) have been given in the paper. This study aimed to determine the fragility curves of the school building according to HAZUS 2022, Turkish Seismic Codes 1998, 2007 and 2018. These codes have been introduced in terms of damage limits. Incremental dynamic analysis is a parametric analysis method that has recently emerged in several different forms to estimate more thoroughly structural performance under seismic loads. Fragility analysis is commonly using to estimate the damage probability of buildings. Incremental Dynamic Analysis have performed, and 1295 Incremental Dynamic Analysis output was evaluated to obtain fragility curves. 20 different ground motion records have been selected with magnitudes between 5.6M and 7.6M. Scaling factors of these ground motions were selected between 0.1g and 2g. Comparison has been made between HAZUS 2022 and Turkish Seismic Codes 1998, 2007 and 2018 in terms of damage states and how they affected fragility curves. TSC 1998 has more conservative strictions along with TSC 2018 than TSC2007 and HAZUS moderate and extensive damage limits.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.653-663
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• 2017

A seismic margin assessment evaluates how much margin exists for the system under beyond design basis earthquake events. Specifically, the seismic margin for the entire system is evaluated by utilizing a systems analysis based on the sub-system and component seismic fragility data. Each seismic fragility curve is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data. The systems analysis is generally performed by employing a fault tree analysis. However, the current practice has clear limitations in that it cannot deal with the uncertainties of basic components and accommodate the newly observed data. Therefore, in this paper, we present a Bayesian-based seismic margin assessment that is conducted using seismic fragility data and fault tree analysis including Bayesian inference. This proposed approach is first applied to the pooltype nuclear research reactor system for the quantitative evaluation of the seismic margin. The results show that the applied approach can allow updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level of the fault tree, and can identify critical scenarios modified due to new information. Also, given the seismic hazard information, this approach is further extended to the real-time risk evaluation. Thus, the proposed approach can finally be expected to solve the fundamental restrictions of the current method.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.626-633
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• 2019

Purpose: The primery objecting of this paper is to explore the seismics fragility of curved bridge based on the change of girder section. Method: The cross section of the bridge structure was constructed with I, T, and Box shapes and then, in order to perform the seismic fragility 24 seismic ground motions were used, including Gyeongju Pohang Earthquake. Result: Fist, T-Shape of the bridge strucrue was much fragility in terms of the stress on girder section, in comparison to the other shapes. The seismic fragilies of the structures with respect to displacement(drift ratio), however, were shown simialr. Conclusion: In other to wvaluation the seismic fragility of curved structure using different girder shapes, analytical models of the structure were constructed and then, the probability failure of box-shape girder was shown lower probability. In further, Parametric studies of curved structures must be conducted.