• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.42-51
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• 2020

This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.222-237
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• 2022

This study was performed to predict change of forestland area in future to 2050 based on System Dynamics Model which is based on feedback loop by causal relationship. As forestland area change in the future depends on potential forestland conversion demands, each demand type of forestland conversion such as agricultural, industrial, public and residential/commercial use was modeled using annual GDP, population, number of household, household construction permission area (1981~2019). In results, all of conversion demands would have continuously decreased to 2050 while residential and commercial land would be reduced from 2034. Due to such shortage, eventually, total of forestland in South Korea would have decreased to 6.18 million ha when compared to current 6.29 million ha. Moreover, the forestland conversion to other use types must be occurred continuously in future because most of forestland is owned privately in South Korea. Such steady decrement of forestland area in future can contribute to the shortage of carbon sink and encumber achievement of national carbon-neutral goal to 2050. If forestland conversion would be occurred inevitably in future according to such change trends of all types, improved laws and polices related to forestland should be prepared for planned use and rational conservation in terms of whole territory management. Therefore, it is needed to offer sufficient incentive, such as tax reduction and payment of ecosystem service on excellent forestland protection and maintenance, to private owners for minimizing forestland conversion. Moreover, active afforestation policy and practice have to be implemented on idle land for reaching national goal 'Carbon Neutral to 2050' in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.59-71
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• 2019

In Mountainous Districts Management Act of Korea Forest Service, slope and elevation criteria are operated to regulate the indiscriminate use of risky land parcels when forestland is converted to other land use types. However, there is a limitation in considering topographical variation with only such two indices in the land parcel. Therefore, in order to supplement insufficient criteria, the slope type standard was developed using Catena, and the ecological condition improved terrain standards. Firstly, the ratio of 'risky slope' in a target forestland parcel was defined to decrease the risk of disasters such as landslides. Secondly, the standard of the ecological location condition was proposed as ecological score by integrating age, diameter and soil depth classes in the target forestland parcels. Thereby, we could prepare reasonable standards that can reduce forestland disasters and ecological damages, as suggesting new topographical and ecological assessment methods for forestland use conversion.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.99-112
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• 2021

This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.145-157
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• 2018

Mountainous areas are 64% in Korea and are allowed to be used by the permission standards of the "Mountainous Districts Management Act". In the act, slope and elevation criteria are defined to regulate the use of vulnerable land parcels to disaster. However, the standards cannot represent topographical variation in a land parcel such as terrain relief. Therefore, the applicability of slope type standard as a permission standard was tested using Catena in this study. Based on the theoretical grounds, two slope types were analyzed as 'risky slope' with disaster risk. The slope types of landslides in Namwon City were analyzed that 'risky slope' types were distributed about 57%. This study analyzed the forestland parcels that could be used when applying the current permission standards and the parcels that were already used in Namwon City. The ratio of the 'risky slope' in the parcels was more than 50%. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent the mountain development in 'risky slope' by establishing permission standard related to slope types. In addition, this study suggested the ratio of 'risky slope' in the parcel for the permission standard for forestland use conversion.