• Title/Summary/Keyword: foresight

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The Impact of the Internet Channel Introduction Depending on the Ownership of the Internet Channel (도입주체에 따른 인터넷경로의 도입효과)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2009
  • The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

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Future Residential Forecasting and Recommendations of Housing Using STEEP-V Analysis (STEEP-V 방법론을 활용한 미래주거예측 및 대응방안)

  • An, Se-Yun;Lee, Sangho;Yoon, Jeong Joong;Kim, So-Yeon;Ju, Hannah;Kim, Sungwhan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.230-240
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the social debate about the fourth industrial revolution has been actively developed, and it is predicted that the 4th Industrial Revolution will have a great influence on our society, cities, residential and industrial spaces. Especially, it is anticipated that the technological development of the 4th Industrial Revolution will cause a wide range of changes in residential style and culture. Therefore, it is necessary to grasp the direction of future change in advance and proactively respond to future tasks and strategies need. The purpose of this study is to predict the direction and characteristics of the mid - to long - term changes in future housing that will be brought about by the 4th Industrial Revolution and to define future social, spatial and technological impacts and issues and to find policy measures for them. STEEP (V) as a methodology for forecasting future has been used. It is a process of deriving technical and social issues by using Big Data. It collects various keywords and draws out key issues and summarizes social change patterns related to each core issue. The proposed strategy for future housing prediction and countermeasures can be used as a basic data for future directions of housing policy and suggests a process for deriving reasonable and reasonable results from multiple data sets rather than accurate prediction.

A Study on Evaluation of Water Supply Capacity with Coordinated Weirs and Multi-reservoir Operating Model (댐-보 최적 연계운영을 통한 용수공급능력 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Chae, Sun-Il;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.839-851
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    • 2012
  • When we evaluate the water supply capacity of a river basin, it is a common practice to gradually increase the water demand and check if the water demands are met. This practice is not only used in the simulation approach, but also in the optimization approach. However, this trial and error approach is a tedious task. Hence, we propose a two-phase method. In the first phase, by assuming that the decision maker has complete information on inflow data, we use a goal programming model that can generate the maximum water supply capacity at one time. In the second phase, we simulate the real-time operation for the critical period by utilizing the water supply capacity given by the goal programming model under the condition that there is no foresight of inflow. We applied the two-phase method to the Geum-River basin, where multi-purpose weirs were newly constructed. By comparing the results of the goal programming model with those of the real-time simulation model we could comprehend and estimate the effect of perfect inflow data on the water supply capacity.

A Study on Smart Eco-city and Ubiquitous Administrative Spatial Informatization : In terms of Water Pollution and Disaster Prevention of Busan Ecodeltacity (스마트생태도시와 유비쿼터스 행정공간정보화연구 -부산 에코델타시티 수질오염 재난방재 측면에서-)

  • Lee, Sang-Yun;Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.827-840
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, our society, because of the arrival of a new paradigm according to the rapid changes in ICT has entered into future smart society and the ubiquitous era. So it can be a notable turning point in the city disaster prevention system with big data, aspects of the era change. Therefore, this study was to derive a desirable vision for the big data city disaster prevention informatization in terms of ICT city disaster prevention system development as preparedness for the city disaster by applying 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. Soon this study derived a successful city disaster prevention informatization strategy as preparedness for the city disaster, for example, in terms of water pollution and disaster prevention of Busan Ecodeltacity. It proposed the big data city disaster prevention informatization system with the use of the administrative aspects of information with spatial informatization as big data information. Also this study explored the future leadership strategy of the big data city disaster prevention informatization in smart society and smart eco-city. Eventually in 2030 to around, in order to still remain our city disaster prevention informatization as a leading ICT nation, this study suggested the following strategy. It is important to ready the advanced ubiquitous administrative spatial informatization and ICT disaster prevention system with big data in terms of water pollution and disaster prevention of Busan Ecodeltacity.

Economic Impacts of Initial Allocation and Banking in CO2 Emissions Trading (초기할당방식과 예대(預貸) 가능 여부에 따른 CO2 배출권거래제의 경제적 효과)

  • Cho, Gyeong Lyeob;Kim, Young Duk;Kim, Hyosun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.591-642
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    • 2006
  • This paper intends to analyze economic impacts of commitment period and initial allocation in emissions trading using computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The fully dynamic CGE model with perfect foresight assumption is employed to illustrate (i) how a model displays economic impact of $CO_2$ regulation upon different commitment periods: one-year budget clearing vs. 5-year commitment period, (ii) how major 8 energy-intensive industries respond to different ways to allocate initial allowances. According to the results of the analysis, it IS found that market players are motivated to bank the permits and tend to sell permits in earlier stage and to buy permits in later stage of commitment period. This implies that banking allows permit trading within a commitment period, which supports the conclusions of Kling and Rubin (1997). Other findings are related to efficiency. That is, emissions trading surpasses command and control, in terms of economic efficiency and longer terms of commitment period converge on lower permit price, In long term, initial allocation based on value-added performs the lowest GDP loss among different initial allocations.

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Information Contents of Dividend and Ex-dividend Day Stock Returns (현금배당 사전공시기업의 정보효과 및 배당락일의 주식수익률)

  • Kim, Sung-Min;Kim, Ji-Eun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2004
  • This paper investigates the stock price and the volume behavior on the ex-dividend day using the December fiscal year firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2000. Using the samples of voluntarily preannounced dividend-raying firms prior to the end of fiscal you, this study corrects the major limitations on previous studies -Kim, S. (1997) and Kim, S. (2003)- which were based on the perfect foresight assumption for firms' upcoming dividends. Also, this paper examines the information content of dividend more properly, since the preannounced date for the upcoming dividend payment is employed for the first time as the event date. Empirical results show that the announcement effects of cash and/or stock dividend is significant around the event date. The ex-dividend day stock returns are negative as expected for the samples of voluntarily preannounced cash dividend-paying firms.

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Coastal Zone Management in the United States of America (미국의 해안관리 -New Jerseyization의 반성과 연방정부 연안역관리 프로그램의 확산-)

  • Yu, Keun-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.481-496
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    • 2009
  • Every coastal area exhibits its own unique landscape owing to the combination of the natural and cultural processes. Coastal barrier islands well show the cultural aspects of American coastal landscapes. Some 47% of barrier island area was occupied by urban and built-up area in New Jersey, while some 5% in Georgia. Tourism-related development is back to in the mid 19C. in N.J. due to the closeness to heavily populated areas such as New York and Philadelphia. Developments without proper understanding the nature of coastal processes caused New Jerseyization, the destruction of the beauty or naturalness. It was mainly due to the lack of growth-control policies and the foresight for the future coast in the processes of legislation. North Carolina's islands experienced an increase of 269% in urbanized acreage between 1956 and 1976. However, N.C. exercised her wisdom to recover the naturalness of the coastal environs: all engineering structures are banned on the beaches. Nine out of 13 barrier islands in Georgia exist in the wilderness condition owing to her unique history. The remaining islands still experienced the least development. After the Civil War most of Georgian islands were owned by rich families and maintained as wilderness. In the 1970s most of the uninhabited islands were sold or donated to research institutes or governmental agencies.

A Study on Preservation of Disaster from Earthquake for Kori Nuclear Power Plant -In terms of Ubiquitous Administrative Spatial Informatization System and Smart Ecological City- (고리원전과 지진재난방재 연구 -스마트 생태도시와 유비쿼터스 행정공간정보화 구축측면에서-)

  • Lee, Sang-Yun;Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2017
  • Recently, discussions about the guarantee of smart ecological environment have been started in S. Korea. These discussions are becoming more and more popular in the aspect of ubiquitous administrative spatial informatization in utilization using big data as a new paradigm due to the rapid change of information and communication technology, such as the start of smart society and the ubiquitous era. In addition, there is a growing interest in discussing environmental and disaster preservation in terms of ubiquitous smart city construction in smart society. In thisstudy, by applying 'scenario planning' as a foresight method, we have developed a desirable future vision for ubiquitous administrative spatial informatization in terms of preservation of disaster of Kori nuclear power plant like earthquake. In order to establish a high level of city disaster prevention level in S. Korea in 2030 when the big data and big data System will be further intensified in the future, it is necessary to develop advanced ICT city disaster prevention system with big data administrative spatial informatization in terms ofsmart ecological city construction.

A Study on the Ferry Sewol Disaster Cause and Marine Disaster Prevention Informatization with Big Data : In terms of ICT Administrative Spatial Informatization and Maritime Disaster Prevention System development (세월호사고원인과 빅데이터 해양방재정보화연구 -ICT행정공간정보화와 해양방재시스템개발 측면에서-)

  • Lee, Sang-Yun;Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.567-580
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, our society, because of the arrival of a new paradigm according to the rapid changes in ICT has entered into future smart society and the ubiquitous era. So it can be a notable turning point in the marine disaster prevention system with big data, aspects of the era change. Therefore, this study was to derive a desirable vision for the big data marine disaster prevention informatization in terms of ICT maritime disaster prevention system development as preparedness for the maritime disaster by applying 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. Soon this study derived a successful marine disaster prevention informatization strategy as preparedness for the maritime disaster like Ferry Sewol Disaster. It proposed the big data marine disaster prevention informatization system with the use of the administrative aspects of information with spatial informatization as big data information. Also this study explored the future leadership strategy of the big data marine disaster prevention informatization in smart society. Eventually in 2030 to around, In order to still remain our marine disaster prevention informatization as a leading ICT nation, this study suggested the following strategy. It is important to ready the advanced Big Data administrative spatial informatization system In terms of prevention of incidents like Ferry Sewol Disaster.

Seeking the Contact Points of Traditional Drama Education and Elementary Drama Education of Prof. Sa-Jinsil (사진실 교수의 전통연희 교육관과 초등 연극교육의 접점 모색)

  • Choi, Won-oh
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.36
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    • pp.553-584
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    • 2018
  • In order to succeed to the 'Traditional Play Series 1~9' by Prof. Sa Jinsil, this article sought the contact points between the traditional drama and the elementary drama education that Prof. Sa Jinsil held. The educational perspective of the prof. Sa Jinsil is reflected specifically in the seventh and eighth volumes. However, these educational perspectives are similar to those presented in the 2015 revised curriculum. It is also similar to the cultivation of humanities through theater education. In other words, the similarity is confirmed in that the target is creativity-interdisciplinary type human. The foresight of the prof. Sa jinsil in the education for creativity-interdisciplinary type human is confirmed. On the other hand, in order to cultivate creativity-interdisciplinary type human, it is also required to cultivate the ability to 'fun speaking' as well as 'logically speaking'. In this regard, I presented Jaedam, one of the Korean traditional plays, as an alternative. The reason for this is as follows; (1)It is possible to succeed Korean traditional theater performance style through regular class. (2)Students can develop emotional and empathy skills through fun speaking education. (3)Students will develop persuasive storytelling skills. At this time, the traditional play series 1~9, which contains the works of Prof. Sa Jinsil, and cultural ideas and educational ideas, will be useful.