• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• 자원환경지질
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• 제41권5호
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• pp.509-516
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• 2008

지역단위 수요를 분석할 수 있는 자료상의 요건은 수요량에 관한 것이다. 분석하고자 하는 지역의 수요량을 파악해야 수요를 분석할 수 있는데, 현실적으로 모든 수요량을 파악한다는 것은 곤란하다. 이러한 이유로 대부분의 지역단위 수요량 조사는 광석수요량, 금속괴 수요량 등 특정 단계의 거래량을 이용하게 된다. 그러나 이는 수입된 최종제품의 부분품으로서 금속자원 수요량이나 다른 단계의 제품으로 수입된 수요량은 고려하지 않은 해당 금속자원의 수요량 중 일부분에 해당되는 것이다. 이와 같은 자료상의 한계를 인식하여, 본 연구는 국내 금속괴의 수요를 분석함에 있어 개념적으로 이분하여 국내사용을 목적으로 하는 수요와 국외사용을 목적으로 하는 수요로 구분하였다. 국내사용을 목적으로 하는 수요는 국내의 경제, 기술 등 요인에 따라, 그리고 국외사용을 목적으로 하는 수요는 국외 소득변화가 우리 경제에 영향을 주는 정도에 따라 변화하는 양상을 보일 것이다. 이를 근거로 사용강도(intensity of use)의 가설을 도입하여 국내 동괴, 연괴, 아연괴의 수요를 모형화하고 실증분석하였으며 유의한 결과를 도출했다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.310-336
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• 2021

We use iterative numerical procedures combined with analytical methods due to Rapach and Wohar (2009) to solve for the dynamic asset allocation strategy for optimal portfolio demand. We compare different optimal portfolio demands when investors in each country have different access to overseas and domestic investment opportunities. The optimal dynamic asset allocation strategy without foreign investment opportunities leads domestic investors in Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore to allocate more funds to domestic bonds than to domestic stocks. However, the U.S. investors allocate more wealth to domestic stocks than to domestic bonds. Investors in all countries short bills at a low level of risk aversion. Next, we investigate dynamic asset allocation strategy when domestic investors in Korea have access to foreign markets. The optimal portfolio demand leads investors in Korea to allocate most resources to domestic bonds and foreign stocks. On the other hand, the portfolio weights on foreign bonds and domestic stocks are relatively low. We also analyze dynamic asset allocation strategy for the investors in the U.S., Hong Kong, and Singapore when they have access to the Korean markets as overseas investment opportunities. Compared to the results when the investors only have access to domestic markets, the investors in the U.S. and Singapore increase the portfolio weights on domestic stocks in spite of the overseas investment opportunities in the Korean markets. The investors in the U.S., Hong Kong, and Singapore short domestic bills to invest more than initial funds in risky assets with a varying degree of relative risk aversion coefficients without exception.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.51-58
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• 2017

The aim of the study is to assess the asymmetry of influence of factors of economic growth of national economies, which are included in the integration. Unlike previous research, the scientific significance of the obtained results consists in the use of a new method of study - external demand as a factor of economic growth, disaggregated into two components. The first is net exports mutual trade in goods within integration associations. The second is net exports of foreign trade in goods outside the integration. By use of these methods we have evaluated the contribution of these factors on economic growth of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space (CU/CES), as well as Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. In the conducted analysis of scientific research was based on the fact that the economies of the member (CU/CES) are very different in scale, economic potential and volume of foreign trade. Based on this research we conclude: integration is developing successfully and efficiently only with the rise of the national economies of the member countries; to enhance economic growth and competitiveness of the countries of the Eurasian integration it is necessary to increase the volume of mutual trade of member countries of this integration.

• Journal of Smart Tourism
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2022

Understanding demand for travel websites can help hoteliers better evaluate their own multi-channel distribution and reputation management strategies. In this study, we estimated demand for eight major travel websites based on the user percentage in 3,120 U.S. counties. Results highlighted the importance of four types of factors: sociodemographic, economic, Internet use-related, and travel-related. Differences between websites were also compared based on estimated coefficients. For example, the demand for Expedia.com appeared to be driven by age, education background, income, and foreign travel history, whereas the demand for Hotels.com was driven by the proportion of the African American population and domestic travel history. Lastly, implications are provided.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.51-65
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• 2020

According to an analysis of 560 foreign-invested companies investing in South Korea's manufacturing industry, the following three facts were found. First, the proportion of sales by manufacturing foreign-invested companies is divided into 68.5 percent of domestic sales and 31.5 percent of exports. From 68.5 percent of domestic sales, sales to Korean companies are 60.5 percent, including 37.1 percent for large companies and 23.4 percent for small and medium-sized companies, while only 8.0 percent for domestic consumers. Second, the investment sectors of manufacturing foreign-invested enterprises are 'machine and equipment manufacturing', 'chemical and chemical-chemical material manufacturing-excluding pharmaceuticals', 'electronic components, computers, video, sound and communication equipment manufacturing' and 'vehicle and trailer manufacturing'. It overlaps with electric·electronics, petro-chemicals and automobiles, which are Korea's main industries and areas of Korean global companies. Third, 31.5 percent of the sales of foreign-invested companies in the manufacturing sector are exported. Foreign-invested companies export their products to use them for their parents or affiliates or to the third countries. The analysis shows that foreign-invested companies invested in Korea for B2B transactions with Korean companies. The implications are that Korea can attract foreign investments by utilizing Korean companies' demand for intermediate goods. Foreign-invested companies can invest in Korea in order to use Korea, which has signed free trade agreements with the US, the EU and ASEAN, as an export platform.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.381-408
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• 2015

This paper investigates a link between the significant decline in the growth of domestic demand and the dampened ripple effects from the export sector in Korea since the East Asian financial crisis. The dampened ripple effects are closely linked to the changed investment behaviors of the Korean large-sized exporting firms since the crisis: they do not invest in their export earnings any more to create new industries; they tend to use more foreign value added contents for their exports and to increase outward direct investment by actively participating in global value chains. The paper also examines a link between the growth of domestic demand and the growth of household disposable income and presents reasons for the decline in the growth of household disposable income since the East Asian financial crisis.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2006년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.255-258
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• 2006

국내 건설노동시장은 신규인력의 진입기피와 높은 이직률, 그리고 기존 숙련공들의 노령화로 인해 숙련공의 노동 공급 사정은 점점 악화되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서, 이러한 건설노동력부족의 해소를 위한 일환으로 정부에서는 1997년부터 외국인연수생을 도입하였다. 이와 같이 국내건설의 인력시장에서 외국인 근로자들의 수요가 증가하고 있지만, 외국인 근로자들의 관리 ${\cdot}$ 감독체계는 어려운 실정이다. 본 연구의 목적은 국내건설산업의 외국인 근로자의 효과적인 고용정책 또는 고용체계를 확립하기 위한 기초자료를 제시하는데 있다. 국내 건설현장에 종사하는 내국인 근로자들을 대상으로, 외국인 근로자들의 고용실태와 문제점을 조사하고, 정책발전의 계획 수립을 위해 외국인 근로자들의 현 고용체계와 인식에 대해 분석하였다.

• 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국주거학회 2008년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.276-280
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• 2008

Korean Classical Music, as the abbreviated wording for 'Korean Music', is being used as the indicating phraseology for our traditional music that distinguishing from Western Music, the foreign music or foreign-styled popular music. Since such Korean Classical Music has the different acoustic characteristics from Western Music, it needs its own performance space for the special exclusive-use of Korean Classical Music. Likewise, even though the demand for the performance space of special exclusive-use for Korean Classical Music where Korean Classical Music is rendering, is on increasing tendency due to the increase of national concern about traditional culture art, since it is being planned without any concrete standard or method that gratifies the supreme listening condition, it is the real situation that a securement of the satisfying acoustic condition is very difficult, after the completion of construction. On such viewpoint, in order to evaluate the acoustic characteristics of the performance space of special exclusive-use for Korean Classical Music, based on the subjective response which reflects human being's psychological attribute at first, this Study has attempted to extract the proper evaluation vocabulary for appraisement on Korean Classical Music. The abstracted vocabulary in such way would be used significantly for Subjective Response Evaluation in order for the evaluation on the Acoustic Characteristics of the performance space of special exclusive-use for Korean Classical Music.

• 정보학연구
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.173-183
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• 2002

본 논문에서는 무선통신 서비스를 위한 필수 자원인 주파수의 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다. 이는 효율적인 국내 전파자원 관리를 위해 필수적인 업무이다. 제안한 방법론은 크게 기본 서비스군 분류, 유효 트래픽 도출 및 주파수 수요예측의 세단계로 구성된다. 기본 서비스군 분류 단계에서는 기존의 주파수 수요예측 방법론의 결과를 이용하여 서비스를 Wide area mobile, Short range radio, Fixed wireless access 및 Digital video broadcasting으로 나누며, 유효 트래픽 도출 단계에서는 총 트래픽을 erlang 및 bps 단위로 환산하여 구하는 방법을 제안한다. 구체적으로 유효 트래픽 도출 단계에서는 사용자 분류, 기본 어플리케이션 분류 및 어플리케이션별 유효 트래픽 추정의 과정을 거친다. 끝으로, 주파수 수요예측 단계에서 각 서비스군별로 서로 다른 주파수 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다.