• Title/Summary/Keyword: forecasting model

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Analysis of the Long-Range Transport Contribution to PM10 in Korea Based on the Variations of Anthropogenic Emissions in East Asia using WRF-Chem (WRF-Chem 모델을 활용한 동아시아의 인위적 배출량 변동에 따른 한국 미세 먼지 장거리 수송 기여도 분석)

  • Lee, Hyae-Jin;Cho, Jae-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.283-302
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    • 2022
  • Despite the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in China since January 23, 2020, haze days with high PM10 levels of 88-98 ㎍ m-3 occurred on February 1 and 2, 2020. During these haze days, the East Asian region was affected by a warm and stagnant air mass with positive air temperature anomalies and negative zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to analyze the variation of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea due to decreased anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. The base experiment (BASE), which applies the basic anthropogenic emissions in the WRF-Chem model, and the control experiment (CTL) applied by reducing the anthropogenic emission to 50%, were used to assess uncertainty with ground-based PM10 measurements in Korea. The index of agreement (IOA) for the CTL simulation was 0.71, which was higher than that of BASE (0.67). A statistical analysis of the results suggests that anthropogenic emissions were reduced during the COVID-19 lockdown period in China. Furthermore, BASE and CTL applied to zero-out anthropogenic emissions outside Korea (BASE_ZEOK and CTL_ZEOK) were used to analyze the variations of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea. Regional PM10 transport in CTL was reduced by only 10-20% compared to BASE. Synthetic weather variables may be another reason for the non-linear response to changes in the contribution of regional transport to PM10 in Korea with the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. Although the regional transport contribution of other inorganic aerosols was high in CTL (80-90%), sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols showed lower contributions of 0-20%, 30-60%, and 30-60%, respectively. The SNA secondary aerosols, particularly nitrates, presumably declined as the Chinese lockdown induced traffic.

Exposure Assessments of Environmental Contaminants in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex, Daegu(I) - Effect zone of environmental pneumoconiosis and fugitive dust - (대구 안심연료단지 환경오염물질 노출 평가(I) - 환경성 진폐증 및 비산먼지 영향권역 -)

  • Jung, Jong-Hyeon;Oh, In-Bo;Phee, Young-Gyu;Nam, Mi-Ran;Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Bang, Jin-Hee;Jeon, Soo-Bin;Lee, Sang-sup;Yu, Seung-do;KimS, Byung-Seok;Yoo, Seok-Ju;Lee, Kwan;Lim, Hyun-Sul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.366-379
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: The objective of this study is to assess airborne particulate matter(PM) pollution and its effect on health of residents living near Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex in Daegu metropolitan region. Methods: The California Puff(CALPUFF) dispersion model, version 5.8, which can estimate the dispersion direction and range of airborn $PM_{10}$ was used to determine the possible areas affected by $PM_{10}$ pollutants emitted from Ansim briquette fuel complex. The CALPUFF modeling with 200 m grid-cell resolution was performed based on $PM_{10}$ emissions estimated from the amount of coal consumption in the fuel complex for four months in 2012. The Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) fields were processed using CALMET to produce CALPUFF-ready meteorological inputs. Also, the distance from Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex to the residence of each environmental pneumoconiosis patient was analyzed. In addition, the affecting region of the pollutants emitted from briquette factories in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex was determined. Results: CALPUFF modeling results showed that the highest concentrations of $PM_{10}$ were found near around the fuel complex. The modeled $PM_{10}$ distributions were characterized by significant decreases in concentration with distance from the complex. Seasonally, the highest concentration of $45{\mu}g/m^3$ was calculated in October which was mostly due to the distinct variation of amount of emission. Additional modeling with the maximum $PM_{10}$ emission of about 88 tons per year in 1986 showed that the highest concentration in October was nearly increased by 8 times than the concentration modeled with emission of 2010. As a result of medical examination and interviews for the residents in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex and its surroundings, 8 environmental pneumoconiosis patients were found. These patients do not have occupational exposure and history. These patients have lived 0.3~1.1 km area in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex and its surroundings. Conclusions: Airborne particles emitted from Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex can contribute to significant increase in $PM_{10}$ concentration in residential areas near around the complex. Especially, the residents near fuel complex may exposed to the pollutants emitted from the factories in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex.

Estimate and Analysis of Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) using a Mobile Lidar Vehicle system (이동형 차량탑재 라이다 시스템을 활용한 경계층고도 산출 및 분석)

  • Nam, Hyoung-Gu;Choi, Won;Kim, Yoo-Jun;Shim, Jae-Kwan;Choi, Byoung-Choel;Kim, Byung-Gon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.307-321
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    • 2016
  • Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) is a major input parameter for weather forecasting and atmosphere diffusion models. In order to estimate the sub-grid scale variability of PBLH, we need to monitor PBLH data with high spatio-temporal resolution. Accordingly, we introduce a LIdar observation VEhicle (LIVE), and analyze PBLH derived from the lidar loaded in LIVE. PBLH estimated from LIVE shows high correlations with those estimated from both WRF model ($R^2=0.68$) and radiosonde ($R^2=0.72$). However, PBLH from lidar tend to be overestimated in comparison with those from both WRF and radiosonde because lidar appears to detect height of Residual Layer (RL) as PBLH which is overall below near the overlap height (< 300 m). PBLH from lidar with 10 min time resolution shows typical diurnal variation since it grows up after sunrise and reaches the maximum after 2 hours of sun culmination. The average growth rate of PBLH during the analysis period (2014/06/26 ~ 30) is 1.79 (-2.9 ~ 5.7) m $min^{-1}$. In addition, the lidar signal measured from moving LIVE shows that there is very low noise in comparison with that from the stationary observation. The PBLH from LIVE is 1065 m, similar to the value (1150 m) derived from the radiosonde launched at Sokcho. This study suggests that LIVE can observe continuous and reliable PBLH with high resolution in both stationary and mobile systems.

A Study on the Phonology of the Striped Rice Borer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), in Relation to the Introduction of New Agricultural Practices (경종법에 변천에 따르는 이화명나방 발생상의 변동에 관한 연구)

  • Song Yoo Han;Choi Seung Yoon;Hyun Jai Sun
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.21 no.1 s.50
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    • pp.38-48
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    • 1982
  • This study was conducted to investigate the changes in moth occurrence of striped rice barer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), in relation to climatic factors, rice varieties, and cultural practices. The light trap data from 41 forecasting stations for 14 years from 1966 to 1979 were analyzed by means of the changes in the time and amount of borer occurrence in connection with the introduction of new rice varieties, the accumulated effective day-degree and its variation for completing one generation, and the climatic factors affecting the moth occurrence. The total number of moths caught by light traps in both spring and summer generations were considerably decreased with the wide cultivation of new rice varieties. In fact, the spring moths were remarkably decreased since the new varieties were introduced in 1972. The occurrence ratio of summer moths against the preceeding spring moths was higher in the middle region and middle southern mountainous area than the other regions. Its high ratio of regions was annually expanded from the middle region to the southern region. The $50\%$ emergence dates of both generations were later in the southeastern region than in the middle region. The ecological characteristics were clearly shown between the northern and southern region of Chupungryeong in terms of the occurrence of summer moths, the ratio of occurrence of summer moths to the preceeding spring moths, and $50\%$ emergence dates of the summer moths during the years of $1977\~1979$. The ratio of the summer moth occurrence to the preceeding generation was negatively correlated with the average temperature in lune and July, respectively, and the average precipitation in late June. The ratio of spring moth occurrence over the preceeding generation was positively correlated with the average temperature in September, October, November, and March, respectively, whereas it was negatively correlated with the average precipitation in early September and March, and the average humidity in early May. The effective day-degree for one generation was in the range from 600 to 900 DD at upper threshold $30^{\circ}C$ and lower threshold $10^{\circ}C$.

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Effects of Typhoon and Mesoscale Eddy on Generation and Distribution of Near-Inertial Wave Energy in the East Sea (동해에서 태풍과 중규모 소용돌이가 준관성주기파 에너지 생성과 분포에 미치는 영향)

  • SONG, HAJIN;JEON, CHANHYUNG;CHAE, JEONG-YEOB;LEE, EUN-JOO;LEE, KANG-NYEONG;TAKAYAMA, KATSUMI;CHOI, YOUNGSEOK;PARK, JAE-HUN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2020
  • Near-inertial waves (NIW) which are primarily generated by wind can contribute to vertical mixing in the ocean. The energetic NIW can be generated by typhoon due to its strong wind and preferable wind direction changes especially on the right-hand side of the typhoon. Here we investigate the generation and distribution of NIW using the output of a real-time ocean forecasting system. Five-year model outputs during 2013-2017 are analyzed with a focus on cases of energetic NIW generation by the passage of three typhoons (Halong, Goni, and Chaba) over the East Sea. Calculations of wind energy input (${\bar{W}}_I$), and horizontal kinetic energy in the mixed layer (${\bar{HKE}}_{MLD}$) reveal that the spatial distribution of ${\bar{HKE}}_{MLD}$, which is strengthened at the right-hand side of typhoon tracks, is closely related with ${\bar{W}}_I$. Horizontal kinetic energy in the deep layer (${\bar{HKE}}_{DEEP}$) shows patch-shaped distribution mainly located at the southern side of the East Sea. Spatial distribution of ${\bar{HKE}}_{DEEP}$ shows a close relationship with negative relative vorticity regions caused by warm eddies in the upper layer. Monthly-mean ${\bar{HKE}}_{MLD}$ and ${\bar{HKE}}_{DEEP}$ during a typhoon passing over the East Sea shows about 2.5-5.7 times and 1.2-1.6 times larger values than those during summer with no typhoons, respectively. In addition, their magnitudes are respectively about 0.4-1.0 and 0.8-1.0 times from those during winter, suggesting that the typhoon-induced NIW can provide a significant energy to enhance vertical mixing at both the mixed and deep layers during summer.

Retrieval of the Variation of Optical Characteristics of Asian Dust Plume according to their Vertical Distributions using Multi-wavelength Raman LIDAR System (다파장 라만 라이다 관측을 통한 황사의 이동 고도 분포에 따른 광학적 특성 변화 규명)

  • Shin, Sung-Kyun;Park, Young-San;Choi, Byoung-Choel;Lee, Kwonho;Shin, Dongho;Kim, Young J.;Noh, Youngmin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.597-605
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    • 2014
  • The continuous observations for atmospheric aerosols were conducted during 3 years (2009 to 2011) by using Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) multi-wavelength Raman lidar at Gwangju, Korea ($35.10^{\circ}N$, $126.53^{\circ}E$). The aerosol depolarization ratios calculated from lidar data were used to identify the Asian dust layer. The optical properties of Asian dust layer were different according to its vertical distribution. In order to investigate the difference between the optical properties of each individual dust layers, the transport pathway and the transport altitude of Asian dust were analyzed by Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We consider that the variation of optical properties were influenced not only their transport pathway but also their transport height when it passed over anthropogenic pollution source regions in China. The lower particle depolarization ratio values of $0.12{\pm}0.01$, higher lidar ratio of $67{\pm}9sr$ and $68{\pm}9sr$ at 355 nm and 532 nm, respectively, and higher ${\AA}ngstr\ddot{o}m$ exponent of $1.05{\pm}0.57$ which are considered as the optical properties of pollution were found. In contrast with this, the higher particle depolarization ratio values of $0.21{\pm}0.09$, lower lidar ratio of $48{\pm}5sr$ and $46{\pm}4sr$ at 355 nm and 532 nm, respectively, and lower ${\AA}ngstr\ddot{o}m$ exponent of $0.57{\pm}0.24$ which are considered as the optical properties of dust were found. We found that the degree of mixing of anthropogenic pollutant aerosols in mixed Asian dust govern the variation of optical properties of Asian dust and it depends on their altitude when it passed over the polluted regions over China.

Study on Tourism Demand Forecast and Influencing Factors in Busan Metropolitan City (부산 연안도시 관광수요 예측과 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kyu Won Hwang;Sung Mo Nam;Ah Reum Jang;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.915-929
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    • 2023
  • Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.

Impact of Semantic Characteristics on Perceived Helpfulness of Online Reviews (온라인 상품평의 내용적 특성이 소비자의 인지된 유용성에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.29-44
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    • 2017
  • In Internet commerce, consumers are heavily influenced by product reviews written by other users who have already purchased the product. However, as the product reviews accumulate, it takes a lot of time and effort for consumers to individually check the massive number of product reviews. Moreover, product reviews that are written carelessly actually inconvenience consumers. Thus many online vendors provide mechanisms to identify reviews that customers perceive as most helpful (Cao et al. 2011; Mudambi and Schuff 2010). For example, some online retailers, such as Amazon.com and TripAdvisor, allow users to rate the helpfulness of each review, and use this feedback information to rank and re-order them. However, many reviews have only a few feedbacks or no feedback at all, thus making it hard to identify their helpfulness. Also, it takes time to accumulate feedbacks, thus the newly authored reviews do not have enough ones. For example, only 20% of the reviews in Amazon Review Dataset (Mcauley and Leskovec, 2013) have more than 5 reviews (Yan et al, 2014). The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the usefulness of online product reviews and to derive a forecasting model that selectively provides product reviews that can be helpful to consumers. In order to do this, we extracted the various linguistic, psychological, and perceptual elements included in product reviews by using text-mining techniques and identifying the determinants among these elements that affect the usability of product reviews. In particular, considering that the characteristics of the product reviews and determinants of usability for apparel products (which are experiential products) and electronic products (which are search goods) can differ, the characteristics of the product reviews were compared within each product group and the determinants were established for each. This study used 7,498 apparel product reviews and 106,962 electronic product reviews from Amazon.com. In order to understand a review text, we first extract linguistic and psychological characteristics from review texts such as a word count, the level of emotional tone and analytical thinking embedded in review text using widely adopted text analysis software LIWC (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count). After then, we explore the descriptive statistics of review text for each category and statistically compare their differences using t-test. Lastly, we regression analysis using the data mining software RapidMiner to find out determinant factors. As a result of comparing and analyzing product review characteristics of electronic products and apparel products, it was found that reviewers used more words as well as longer sentences when writing product reviews for electronic products. As for the content characteristics of the product reviews, it was found that these reviews included many analytic words, carried more clout, and related to the cognitive processes (CogProc) more so than the apparel product reviews, in addition to including many words expressing negative emotions (NegEmo). On the other hand, the apparel product reviews included more personal, authentic, positive emotions (PosEmo) and perceptual processes (Percept) compared to the electronic product reviews. Next, we analyzed the determinants toward the usefulness of the product reviews between the two product groups. As a result, it was found that product reviews with high product ratings from reviewers in both product groups that were perceived as being useful contained a larger number of total words, many expressions involving perceptual processes, and fewer negative emotions. In addition, apparel product reviews with a large number of comparative expressions, a low expertise index, and concise content with fewer words in each sentence were perceived to be useful. In the case of electronic product reviews, those that were analytical with a high expertise index, along with containing many authentic expressions, cognitive processes, and positive emotions (PosEmo) were perceived to be useful. These findings are expected to help consumers effectively identify useful product reviews in the future.