• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.27-51
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• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.2_1
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• pp.139-153
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• 2020

Using a computationalfluid dynamics(CFD) model, thisstudy evaluated the representativeness of an air quality monitoring system (AQMS) in an urban area and presented a methodology to determine the suitable AQMS locations for specific purposes. For this, we selected a 1.6 km × 1.6 km area around the Eunpyeong-gu AQMS (AQMS 111181) as a target area. We conducted simulationsfor two emission scenarios (scenario one: air pollutants transported from inflow boundaries, scenario two: air pollutants emitted from roads). Urban airflows were markedly influenced by mountainous terrain located in the northeast and southeast of the target area, and complicated airflow patterns occurred around the buildings. The distributions of air pollutants were dependent on the terrain (mountain) in scenario one, but the road location and building height in scenario 2. We evaluated whether the AQMS could represent the air quality in the target area based on the simulations for two scenarios. The concentrations simulated at the AQMS were similar in magnitude to the layer mean concentrations, which indicated good representativeness for the air quality in the target area. We also suggested which locations were suitable for different measurement purposes (hot spots, clean zones, average zones, shelter zones, equi-background zones).

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.172-172
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• 2011

The interaction between land surface and atmosphere is essentially affected by hydrometeorological variables including soil moisture. Accurate estimation of soil moisture at spatial and temporal scales is crucial to better understand its roles to the weather systems. The KLDAS(Korea Land Data Assimilation System) is a regional, specifically Korea peninsula land surface information systems. As other prior land data assimilation systems, this can provide initial soil field information which can be used in atmospheric simulations. For this study, as an enabling high-resolution tool, weather research and forecasting(WRF-ARW) model is applied to produce precipitation data using GFS(Global Forecast System) with GFS embedded and KLDAS soil moisture information as initialization data. WRF-ARW generates precipitation data for a specific region using different parameters in physics options. The produced precipitation data will be employed for simulations of Hydrological Models such as HEC(Hydrologic Engineering Center) - HMS(Hydrologic Modeling System) as predefined input data for selected regional water responses. The purpose of this study is to show the impact of a hydrometeorological variable such as soil moisture in KLDAS on hydrological consequences in Korea peninsula. The study region, Chongmi River Basin, is located in the center of Korea Peninsular. This has 60.8Km river length and 17.01% slope. This region mostly consists of farming field however the chosen study area placed in mountainous area. The length of river basin perimeter is 185Km and the average width of river is 9.53 meter with 676 meter highest elevation in this region. We have four different observation locations : Sulsung, Taepyung, Samjook, and Sangkeug observatoriesn, This watershed is selected as a tentative research location and continuously studied for getting hydrological effects from land surface information. Simulations for a real regional storm case(June 17~ June 25, 2006) are executed. WRF-ARW for this case study used WSM6 as a micro physics, Kain-Fritcsch Scheme for cumulus scheme, and YSU scheme for planetary boundary layer. The results of WRF simulations generate excellent precipitation data in terms of peak precipitation and date, and the pattern of daily precipitation for four locations. For Sankeug observatory, WRF overestimated precipitation approximately 100 mm/day on July 17, 2006. Taepyung and Samjook display that WRF produced either with KLDAS or with GFS embedded initial soil moisture data higher precipitation amounts compared to observation. Results and discussions in detail on accuracy of prediction using formerly mentioned manners are going to be presented in 2011 Annual Conference of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.6602-6609
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• 2013

This study is expected to provide background data for establishing mitigation measures for malodor and for comparing complex odor criteria. The impact of malodor at the afflicted locations was analyzed using Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3 (ISCST3) model, which was recommended by the EPA. The Odor Emission Rates (ODR) for piglets and hogs were predicted based on the average, minimum, and maximum emission rates as classification. The forecasting result of the complex odor modelling of pigsty showed that tolerance limit was exceeded at an adjacent administration building, but tolerance limit was not surpassed at an afflicted location which was within 185m from the pigsty. The ISCST3 modelling of the satisfactory ODR for tolerance limit was accomplished at the administration building. From the prediction of this modelling, maximum emission rates based on 1hr at administration building were 10.59~52.93, 19.05~31.76, and 10.59 $OU/m^3/s/m^2$ at emission rates of 50%, 30%, and 10%. This emission rate was slightly higher than the tolerance limit of 10.00 $OU/m^3/s/m^2$. However, it was inferred that the tolerance limit could be satisfied if the emission rate of 10% was controlled.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.36 no.10
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• pp.905-910
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• 2012

In early 1990s, the Sea & Air Transport Cargoes (SATC) was increased annually with more than 50% rate due to the rising trade between Korea and China. However, after that, the increasing rate of the SATC was slowdown from the late 1990s, furthermore, recently it became sluggish and declined. This phenomenon is totally different compared to the skyrocketing trade volumes between two countries. In this respect, to forecast the SATC, draw out the factors for activation, and calculate the weight of priority of these factors are urgently needed. To achieve the research objectives, the ARIMA and Fuzzy-AHP were used as research methodology. The estimated volume of SATC using the data from year 2007 to 2012 on the ARIMA model, will be reached approximately 33,000 tons in year 2015. In the mean time, For drawing out and weighing the activation factors for SATC, the Fuzzy-AHP was adopted. As a result, 'Sea & Air transportation-related information system policies' is the most important factor among the principle criteria, and 'the construction of consolidation logistics center' is the most important factor among the 12 sub-principle criteria.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.5-14
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• 2017

Korea, which has undergone a rapid urbanization, faces various problems such as the management of facilities, safety, environment and transportation. To solve civil complaints, local governments receive electronic complaints, but complaints are increasing. Therefore, this study conducted the spatial distribution pattern analysis and the trend analysis by presenting location data on spatial information through Geo-coding by collecting electronic civil petition data over the last 10 years targeting Jinju city. Using the ARIMA model, this study predicted the occurrence of complaints over the next two years (2016~2017) through a time series forecast analysis. As a result, the complaints related to illegal parking were the highest, the complaint related to noise was the second highest, and the complaints related to illegal garbage dumping was the third highest. In addition, the analysis of the spatial distribution pattern shows that the largest hot spot was formed in the central commercial district every year. As a result of the time series forecasting analysis for the crackdown of the illegal parking, complaints increased slightly. To compare the predicted value and the actual data showed a similar pattern. It is judged that this study will be utilized to establish effective countermeasures against civil complaints.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.74-81
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• 2015

As one of urban infrastructure system, the electricity substation is critical for urban life and industrial activity as the electricity demands get higher than ever. However the substation is generally regarded as unpleasant or dangerous facility, which finally results in the continuous opposition movement by resident due to the belief of unidentified negative effect in apartment prices. Accordingly, as the scientifically objective and quantitative analysis is required to solve the social conflict, this study intends to examine the variation affected by urban infrastructure system, expecially for substation. After the independent variable defining the price of apartment and the dependent variable, which is apartment price, are identified and their spatial data has been filed, the forecasting model has been developed through the hedonic price function as well as artificial neural networks system. The research finding indicated that the spatial range affected by substation is not notable and the range of some case was applicable for less than 600m. It is expected that these research findings can be applied for establishing the one of solid cases for the analysis of economical effect to local housing market by the urban infrastructure system.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.357-372
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• 2016

Northeast Asian regions have recently become the main source of anthropogenic and natural aerosols. Measurement of aerosols on the sea in these regions have been rarely conducted since the experimental campaigns such as ACE-ASIA (Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment) in 2001. Research vessel observations of aerosol mass and chemical composition were performed on the Yellow and south sea around the Korean peninsula. The ship measurements showed six representative cases such as aerosol event and non-event cases during the study periods. On non-event cases, the anthropogenic chemical and natural soil composition on the Yellow sea were greater than those on the south sea. On aerosol event cases such as haze, haze with dust, and dust, the measured mass concentrations of anthropogenic chemical and element compositions were clearly changed by the events. In particular, methanesulfonate ($MSA^-$, $CH_3SO_3^-$), a main component of natural oceanic aerosol important for sulfur circulation on Earth, was first observed by the vessel in Korea, and its concentration on the Yellow sea was three times that on the south sea during the study period. Sea salt concentration important to chemical composition on the sea is related to wind speed. Coefficients of determination ($R^2$) between wind speed and sea salt concentration were 0.68 in $PM_{10}$ and 0.82 in $PM_{2.5}$. Maximum wave height was not found to be correlated to the sea salt concentration. When sea-salt comes into contact with pollutants, the total sea-salt mass is reduced, i.e., a loss of $Cl^-$ concentration from NaCl, the main chemical composing sea salt, is estimated by reaction with $HNO_3$(gas) and $H_2SO_4$(gas). The $Cl^-$ concentration loss by $SO_4^{2-}$ and $NO_3^-$ more easily increased for $PM_{10}$ compared to $PM_{2.5}$. The results of this study will be applied to verifying a dust-haze forecasting model. In addition, continued vessel measurements of aerosol data will become important to research for climate change studies in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.318-321
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• 2000

이 연구는 정보통신기기 수출량에 관해 하향식(Top-down) 방법에 기초한 예측 모형을 제시한다. 하향식방법은 전체 수출량과 전체를 구성하는 개별 항목간에 계층적 관계를 바탕으로 순차적으로 예측을 수행하는 방법이다. 전체와 개별 항목간에 관계는 데이터의 시계열 특성과 데이터에 영향을 주는 요인들에 의해서 만들어진다. 이러한 관계를 바탕으로 하는 하향식 예측은 전체 수출량을 먼저 예측한 후 이 예측치를 바탕으로 하여 개별 항목에 대한 예측을 수행한다. 하지만 하향식 방법은 가장 아래 계층의 예측치를 산출하기 위해 필요한 것이며 최종 예측치는 가장 마지막 계층에서부터 예측 데이터를 합산해서 얻을 수 있다. 결국 하향식 예측 방법은 전체와 개별 항목 사이에 상관관계가 높고 계층화되어 있는 구조에 적합하다. 이 예측 대상이 되는 정보통신기기 수출량에 대한 적용 사례를 살펴보자. 계층 구조를 보면 정보통신기기 전체 수출량과 전체를 구성하는 개별 항목으로 정보통신기기 분류별(유선기기, 무선기기, 방송기기, 정보기기, 기타부품기기)과 국가별(미국, 일본, 중국 등 7 개국)로 나뉘어진다. 다시 이 아래 계층으로는 국가와 정보통신기기의 행렬 구조(예: 미국-유선, 일본-부품 등)에 의해 35 개로 나뉘어진다. 각 단계별 예측 방법을 보면 전체 수출량은 시계열 특성과 거시적 변수를 반영한 시계열 모형, 그 아래 계층인 국가별과 분류별 모형에는 전체 수출량 시계열 특성과 국가별과 분류별에 영향을 주는 관련 변수를 반영한 회귀모형 그리고 행렬 구조에 대한 예측은 상위 계층의 시계열 특성과 행렬구조 데이터의 계절성이 반영된 다중 회귀모형을 이용하였다.ndex, mobile user′s will first be classified by their traffic volume, and then calculate the average tariffs per minute of each group of users, and lastly weight-average those tariffs per minute. And finally, this paper shows the mobile tariff index by considering those averaged tariffs and the carriers′ market shares to reflect the contribution of individual carriers and the users′ traffic volume.완화될 수 있다. 즉, 봉지를 씌웅으로서 봉지 내의 대기 환경이 외기보다 안정적으로 유지되고 직사광선이나 농약 및 마찰로부터 과실을 보호해 주기에 동녹이 어느 정도 방지될 수 있는 것이다. 그러나 기존의 황금배봉지는 동녹의 정도를 완화시킬 뿐 완전히 방지할 수 없었으며, 봉지를 적 용한 재배조건에서의 동녹발생 기구를 정확히 이해하지 못했었기에 효과적으로 봉지의 기능 을 개선하는 것이 불가능하였다. 과설의 미려도는 과실의 맛과 함께 그 가치를 결정짓는 중요한 물성으로서 우리나라 황 금배 재배환경과 특성에 알맞은 배봉지의 제작이 선결될 때, 배 품질의 향상, 안정된 공급이 가능하게 될 것이며 아울러 농가의 수업증대와 수출 경쟁력 강화가 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 측면에서 황금배 재배농가가 당면한 동녹발생의 문제점을 신속한 해결 을

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.7-16
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• 2004

The homogeneous road section is defined as one consisted of similar traffic characteristics focused on demand and supply. The criteria, in the aspect of demand, are the diverging rate and the ratio of green time to cycle time at signalized intersection, and distance between the signalized intersections. The criteria, in that or supply, are the traffic patterns such as traffic volume and its speed. In this study, the effective method to generate valuable data, pointing out the problems of removal method of obscure data, is proposed using data collected from Gonjiam IC to Jangji IC on the national highway No.3. Travel times are collected with licence matching method and traffic volume and speed are collected from detectors. Futhermore, the method of selecting homogeneous road section is proposed considering demand and supply aspect simultaneously. This method using outlier filtering algorithm can be applied to generate the travel time forecasting model and to revise the obscured of missing data transmitting from detectors. The point and link data collected at the same time on the rational highway can be used as a basis predicting the travel time and revising the obscured data in the future.