• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.71-80
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• 2019

Daily ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity balance between load and supply due to the variability renewable energy. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for more than 12 hours forecast horizon. UM-LDAPS model is the numerical weather prediction operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and it generates the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study attempts to evaluate the model performance against the in situ measurements at 37 ground stations from January to May, 2013. Relative mean bias error, mean absolute error and root mean square error of hourly total irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 8.2%, 21.2% and 29.6%, respectively. The behavior of mean bias error appears to be different; positively largest in Chupoongnyeong station but negatively largest in Daegu station. The distinct contrast might be attributed to the limitation of microphysics parameterization for thick and thin clouds in the model.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.61-76
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• 2009

We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demand/supply and price, also transportation fare for iron ore. Iron ore is very important mineral resource for industrial production. The structure for this system dynamics shows non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear reality better than the regression analysis. Our model is calibrated and tested for the past 6 year monthly data (2003-2008) and used for next 6 year monthly data(2008-2013) forecasting. The test results show that our system dynamics approach fits the real data with higher accuracy than the regression one. And we have run the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply and fare related variables. This simulations imply some meaningful price and fare change patterns.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2009년도 공동학술대회
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• pp.169-170
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• 2009

국제물류에서 화물 표준화 단위인 컨테이너 물동량이 점점 증가함에 따라 컨테이너 공급부족 현상이 지속되어 컨테이너의 매매가 및 리스료도 높은 상승세를 기록하고 있다. 이러한 부분에서 컨테이너의 관리는 점점 중요시 되고 있는 실전이다. 그러나 대륙별 공컨테이너의 수급불균형은 점점 증가하고 있는 추세여서 예측이나 모형수립이 어려워 리스에 대한 의존율이 높아짐으로써 비용의 증가에 커다란 영향을 미치고 있다.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.241-249
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• 2009

It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

• 전자통신동향분석
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.106-113
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• 2019

Mobile traffic is one of the most important indexes of the growth of the mobile communications market, and it has a close relationship with subscribers' service usage patterns, frequency demand and supply, network management, and information communication policy. The purpose of this paper is to understand mobile data usage in Korea and to suggest the optimal steps for establishing the frequency supply and demand system by researching the traffic trends that reflect the characteristics of radio resources in the mobile communications field. To achieve this goal, attempts were made to increase the possibility of policy use by analyzing and forecasting mobile traffic trends, and to improve the accuracy of the research through the verification of the existing prediction results. The paper ends with a discussion of the necessity of a frequency management system based on data science.

• 전자통신동향분석
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2019

This paper introduces the 5G spectrum auction in Germany that occurred last summer and ended overheatedly after an extraordinarily long period. We describe the context of the latest German spectrum auction and trace the participants' bidding behavior. This case details the trend of the 5G spectrum auction and the factors that affect the spectrum auction as follows: First, it is determined that investment obligations that force network installations can be a financial burden to mobile network operators (MNOs) and require a careful approach. Second, excess demands can cause auction overheating and the spectrum supply volume needs to be determined by a proper demand forecast and investment incentive. Third, 'Set-Aside' for local usage aids in developing the vertical industry; however it limits the spectrum supply for mobiles and leads to higher bidding prices. Fourth, a modified adoption of a typical spectrum auction can alleviate MNO's financial burdens to secure the broadband spectrum. Finally, competition to secure the necessary bandwidth in the situation of limited spectrum supply may delay the process of the spectrum auction, causing it overheated.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2022년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.683-685
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• 2022

By comparing the status quo of recycling of new energy vehicles and waste power batteries at home and abroad, analyze the central relationship between recycling of waste power batteries and the interaction between various factors in China, consider the characteristics of blockchain technology, organically integrate into the reverse recycling network, and quantify the relevant factors. Make use of the constructed model to simulate, forecast, and compare and analyze whether to adopt blockchain technology and, on this basis, analyze the intrinsic relationship between various variables. To explore the different effects brought by changing different countermeasures according to different subjects, and expand it to the factor analysis in the whole reverse recycling supply chain to help the government and operators and enterprises to make more objective and scientific decisions, to provide a particular reference for promoting the recycling of waste power batteries and the development of power battery manufacturing industry in China.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제64권12호
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• pp.1666-1672
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• 2015

Small islands are quite adequate places where microgrid system with renewable sources can replace diesel engines as operation costs of diesel engine in most small islands are very high. To get the large amount of renewable energy, the microgrid system has very large capacity of renewable sources. The system with large capacity of renewable sources can meet the case when supplied energy is greater than the load and the fluctuation of source output is very large. The battery energy storage system can be a solution to stabilize the system with large capacity of renewable sources. In this case, BESS can be utilized as a master source for the synchronous operation of all sources including diesel engine, wind turbine and PV. The diesel generators can be used as a backup in case the BESS SOC goes below a certain level. In this paper, we suggest a novel unit commitment of diesel generators and operation schedule of pump for water supply service with the information of wind forecast, PV forecast, and load forecast. The proposed methods has been implemented and tested at the test bed in Gasa-Island.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.71-83
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• 1989

The purpose of this research are to forecast the demand and supply of milk in Korea, and to obtain information for attitudes affecting milk consumption, which is necessary to make a plan for increasing milk consumption in Korea. The estimation of the milk demand and production was made by the multiplicative decomposition method and the statistical function. Data on consumer were collected from 737 students who were attending primary school, middle school and university in Daejeon during the period of July 11 to July 21, 1988. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The prediction results showed that the production for milk will over supply 21,900 tons in 1,990, 70,800 tons in 1,995 by the multiplicative decomposition method and 45,400 tons in 1990, -51,500 tons in 1995 by the statistical function. 2. It was found that almost all the students awared milk as essential food-stuff of common food stuff for the Koreans. 3. Quite a few students were apt to believe that milk processors added water into fluid milk. 4. Most students showed obtaining information about the nutritional value of milk by school education and advertising of TV, Radio, and Printed media. 5. However, it was found that the advertising by TV, Radio, and Printed media did hardly give to consumers influences on the choice of a particular milk brand. Accordingly, the conclusions are as follows; 1. Need to provide consumers with well planned education programs on the nutritional value of milk. 2. Heavy brand advertising for fluid milk may mislead the understanding of consumer, since city milk is not much differentiated in Korea. Therefore the milk processors should put more efforts in generic milk promotion by reducing brand advertizement. 3. The milk processors should provide major portion of financing for generic milk promotion program.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.33-52
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to project the supply and demand for nurses till the year 2012 and to make recommendations for establishment of proper policies regarding them. To predict the supply of nurses. a baseline projection and demographic methods were employed. The derivative demand was used to forecast the demand of nurses. The results of this study provide us with valuable information on nursing manpower planning for the 21th century. Specifically. results indicate that there will be an oversupply of nurses in the near future based on the current productivity. Based on the medical law. there will be an undersupply of nurses till 2002 but an oversupply after that. Thus. the active supply of nurses must be decreased. One way to achieve this would be decreasing the size of training and education. Thus. we recommend that the number of entrances to 4 year programs will be reduced 20% in 2004. and a reduction of 20% by 2005 in 3 year programs. The results of this study suggest the following: First. a manpower bank for nurses who are trying to reenter the market must be established. Second, improvement of education and retraining is needed for the quality control of nurses. Further studies should take into consideration the above factors.