• 제목/요약/키워드: fog prediction

검색결과 41건 처리시간 0.031초

인천국제공항에서의 운항을 통해서 살펴본 안개예측의 중요성 (The Importance of Fog prediction at the Incheon Int'l Airport through flight delay and cancel statistics)

  • 임헌호;김동혁;송기욱
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2005
  • According to the aviational definition, the fog is an obscuration phenomenon when prevailing visibility becomes less than 1,000m. Fog defined above causes so many aviation traffic problems like detour, flight delay and cancel. Therefore this study investigated quantitatively the fog effects on flight operation using flight delay and cancel statistic data during last four years from 1st Jul. 2001 to 30th Jun. 2005 at the Incheon Int'l Airport. The results of this study show that the hazardous meteorological condition is a important cause of flight delay and cancel, especially fog phenomenon. And it is expected that the results of this study give us the necessary and importance of fog prediction at the Incheon Int'l Airport.

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경험적 방법을 통한 발생학적 한반도 안개 구분과 안개 발생 예측가능성 연구 (Study on Classification of Fog Type based on Its Generation Mechanism and Fog Predictability Using Empirical Method)

  • 이현동;안중배
    • 대기
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we developed a fog classification algorithm to classify fog type based on fog generation mechanism. For the analysis period of 1986-2005, 15,748 fog events had been reported from the 40 observational sites in South Korea. Thus, practically, it is almost impossible to individually classify the fog type of the whole fog events occurred in South Korea manually. In this study, the characteristics of fog during the research period were investigated and the fog classification flowchart were developed base on the analysis, and the fog classification algorithm was applied for the classification of fogs occurred at the observational sites. Finally, the classified fog-type and hindcasted fog occurance results obtained from the flowchart were evaluated for verification.

동해의 해무 예측 시스템 연구 (A Study on Prediction System of Sea Fogs in the East Sea)

  • 서장원;오희진;안중배;윤용훈
    • 한국해양학회지:바다
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2003
  • 동해안에서 지난 20년 동안 발생한 월별 안개 발생빈도와 지속시간 분석에 의하면 1월, 2월, 11월, 12월의 안개 발생빈도는 거의 전무함을 알 수 있다. 이 현상은 태백산맥으로부터 동쪽으로 경사를 이루어 복사 안개의 발생이 어려운 지형 특징을 가지고 있기 때문으로 사료된다. 반면에 안개발생빈도의 90%이상을 차지하는 봄, 여름철의 안개 발생 원인은 크게 3가지로 분류된다. 첫 번째는 증기해무로서 오호츠크해 고기압의 확장으로 찬 북동기류가 동해상으로 이류하여 발생한다. 두 번째는 이류해무로서 따뜻한 기단이 상대적으로 찬 해수면 위로 이류하여 냉각, 포화되어 발생한다. 세 번째는 전선해무로써 저기압이 동해상으로 이동하여 수증기가 공급된 상태에서 한랭 전선 후면의 찬공기가 이류하면서 발생한다 한편, 해상풍, 상대습도, 운저고도, 시정 등의 예측과 동해 해역의 수직단면에서 안개 예측이 가능한 해무예측시스템(DUT-METRI)을 구축하여 사례기간의 해무를 모사하였, 위성자료로부터 이를 검증하였다.

누설 전류 모니터링에 의한 오손된 고분자 애자에서의 섬락 예지 방법 (A Flashover Prediction Method by the Leakage Current Monitoring in the Contaminated Polymer Insulator)

  • 박재준;송영철
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전기물성ㆍ응용부문C
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    • 제53권7호
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    • pp.364-369
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    • 2004
  • In this Paper, a flashover prediction method using the leakage current in the contaminated EPDM distribution polymer insulator is proposed. The leakage currents on the insulator were measured simultaneously with the different salt fog application such as 25g, 50g, and 75g per liter of deionized water. Then, the measured leakage currents were enveloped and transformed as the CDFS using the Hilbert transform and the level crossing rate, respectively. The obtained CDFS having different gradients(angles) were used as a important factor for the flashover prediction of the contaminated polymer insulator. Thus, the average angle change with an identical salt fog concentration was within a range of 20 degrees, and the average angle change among the different salt fog concentrations was 5 degrees. However, it is hard to be distinguished each other because the gradient differences among the CDFS were very small. So, the new weighting value was defined and used to solve this problem. Through simulation, it Is verified that the proposed method has the capability of the flashover prediction.

항공기 결항과 연쇄 교통사고를 야기한 연안안개 사례 연구 (A Case Study of Coastal Fog Event Causing Flight Cancellation and Traffic Accidents)

  • 김영철
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • A heavy foggy event accompanying with complex coastal fog was investigated in this study. This heavy foggy event occurred on FEB 11, 2015. Due to reduced visibility with this foggy event induced more than 100times serial traffic accidents over the Young-jong highway, and Flights from 04:30 AM to 10:00 AM were cancelled on Inchon International Airport. This heavy foggy event was occurred in synoptic and mesoscale environments but dense coastal fog were combined with a combination of sea fog, steam fog, and radiation fog. This kind of coastal fog can predicted by accurate analysis of the direction of the air flow, sea surface temperature(SST), and 925hPa isotherms from numerical weather prediction charts and real time analysis charts.

데이터마이닝 기법들을 통한 제주 안개 예측 방안 연구 (A Study on Fog Forecasting Method through Data Mining Techniques in Jeju)

  • 이영미;배주현;박다빈
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.603-613
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    • 2016
  • Fog may have a significant impact on road conditions. In an attempt to improve fog predictability in Jeju, we conducted machine learning with various data mining techniques such as tree models, conditional inference tree, random forest, multinomial logistic regression, neural network and support vector machine. To validate machine learning models, the results from the simulation was compared with the fog data observed over Jeju(184 ASOS site) and Gosan(185 ASOS site). Predictive rates proposed by six data mining methods are all above 92% at two regions. Additionally, we validated the performance of machine learning models with WRF (weather research and forecasting) model meteorological outputs. We found that it is still not good enough for operational fog forecast. According to the model assesment by metrics from confusion matrix, it can be seen that the fog prediction using neural network is the most effective method.

안개 발생에 따른 문화재 표면의 색 변화 예측 연구 (Study on the Prediction of Surface Color Change of Cultural Properties Materials by Fog Occurrence)

  • 한예빈;박상현;유지아;정용재
    • 보존과학회지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.491-500
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    • 2016
  • 안개는 매우 작은 물방울이 대기 중에 떠다니는 현상으로 주변의 온도, 습도, 바람, 지형 등에 따라 안개의 형태나 발생 여부 등이 달라진다. 특히 안개는 수분을 함유하는 수원(水源) 근처에서 온습도 차이로 인해 발생하기 쉬우며, 오늘날 기후 변화는 안개 발생에 더욱 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 기후요인 중 안개가 문화재에 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 각 재질에 대해 옥외폭로 및 인공열화를 실시하였으며 지속적인 안개 발생으로 인한 재질의 손상정도를 예측하기 위해 색변화를 중심으로 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 금속 표준시편에 대한 옥외폭로 및 인공열화 결과, 표면 변화가 크게 발생하였으며 화견 및 단청류의 경우 표면상 열화된 모습은 관찰되었으나 색차의 경우 일정한 경향성은 확인되지 않았다. 안개 발생빈도에 따라 유의적인 색변화가 발생한 금속 표준시편을 대상으로 안개 발생빈도에 따른 색 변화 예측식을 작성하였으며, 실제 옥외폭로를 통한 색차값의 비교를 통해 색 변화 예측식의 적용 가능성을 확인하였다. 이를 바탕으로 향후 보다 종합적인 손상 예측식을 수립한다면 실제 현장에서 보존환경에 따른 재질의 손상도 예측이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

호남지방 안개 특성 및 KLAPS를 통한 이류.복사안개 사례 연구 (The Characteristics of the Fog and Analysis of the Advection.Radiation Fog by KLAPS in Honam Region)

  • 원효성;유근기;류찬수
    • 통합자연과학논문집
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    • 제4권4호
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    • pp.298-310
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    • 2011
  • Recently the traffics and transportation hazzards by fog are tremendously Increased. There occurred the greater traffic disaster by Dense Fog of Oct.2006. In this study frequent occurrences of advection fogs centerd over Honam Prov are investigated. Increment of transportation during the Fog period for 1996~2005(decade)are statistically analyzed with Honam Prov.'s fogs. For Honam west coast(Gunsan, Mokpo), inland of Honam(Junju, Gwangju, Suncheon), Honam south coast(Wando, Yepsu), Wind, Dew point, Diff. of air and sea temp. relative humidity are classified between 12 hours before and on time of fog with three Dimensional Analysis System(KLAPS). High frequencies of advection-radiation Fog occurrence in western Coasts except for Suncheon. The application of fog characteristics analyzed by KLAPS for denser fog over the western coast in Fall to Fog prediction and special advisory issues. The advection-radiation fog can occure favorably when the moisture index is less than $2^{\circ}C$, relative humidity is greater than 90%, but the moisture depth is under 1.5 km. In addition when the height of 925 hPa is rising, then fog occurs, but for sinking is disappearing.

춘천의 안개발생과 관련된 기상특성분석 및 수치모의 (Analysis of Meteorological Features and Prediction Probability Associated with the Fog Occurrence at Chuncheon)

  • 이화운;이귀옥;백승주;김동혁
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.303-313
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    • 2005
  • In this study, meteorological characteristics concerning the occurrence of fog are analyzed using 4-years $(2000\~2003)$ data at Chuncheon and the probability of prediction is investigated. From the analysis of meteorological characteristics, the fog at Chuncheon occurred before sunrise time and disappeared after that time and lasted for $2\~4$ hours. When fog occurred, on the whole, wind direction was blew the northerly and wind speed was below 2.1m/s. Especially, about $42\%$ of foggy day fell on the calm $(0\~0.2\;ms^{-1})$ conditions. The difference between air temperature and dew point temperature near the surface were mainly less than $2^{\circ}C$. For the lack of water surface temperature, the water surface temperature was calculated by using Water Quality River Reservoir System (WQRRS) and then it was used as the surface boundary condition of MM5. The numerical experiment was carried out for 2 days from 1300 LST on 14 October 2003 to 1300 LST on 16 October 2003 and fog was simulated at dawn on 15 and 16 October 2003. Simulated air temperature and dew point temperature indicate the similar tendency to observation and the simulated difference between air temperature and dew point temperature has also the similar tendency within $2^{\circ}C$. Thus, the occurrence of fog is well simulated in the terms of the difference between air temperature and dew point temperature. Horizontal distribution of the difference between air temperature and dew point temperature from the numerical experiment indicates occurrence, dissipation and lasting time of fog at Chuncheon. In Chuncheon, there is close correlation between the frequency of fog day and outflow from Soyang reservoir and high frequency of occurrence due to the difference between air and cold outlet water temperature.

인천국제공항의 안개 특성에 따른 안개 안정 지수 FSI(Fog Stability Index) 개발 및 검증 (Development and Verification of the Fog Stability Index for Incheon International Airport based on the Measured Fog Characteristics)

  • 송윤영;염성수
    • 대기
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.443-452
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    • 2013
  • The original Fog Stability Index (FSI) is formulated as FSI=$2(T-T_d)+2(T-T_{850})+WS_{850}$, where $T-T_d$ is dew point deficit (temperature-dew point temperature), $T-T_{850}$ is atmospheric stability measure (temperature-temperature at 850 hPa altitude) and $WS_{850}$ is wind speed at 850 hPa altitude. As a way to improve fog prediction at Incheon International Airport (IIA), we develop the modified FSI for IIA, using the meteorological data at IIA for two years from June 2011 to May 2013, the first one year for development and the second one year for validation. The relative contribution of the three parameters of the modified FSI is 9: 1: 0, indicating that $WS_{850}$ is found to be a non-contributing factor for fog formation at IIA. The critical success index (CSI) of the modified FSI is 0.68. Further development is made to consider the fact that fogs at IIA are highly influenced by advection of moisture from the Yellow Sea. One added parameter after statistical evaluation of the several candidate parameters is the dew point deficit at a buoy over the Yellow Sea. The relative contribution of the four parameters (including the new one) of the newly developed FSI is 10: 2: 0.5: 6.4. The CSI of the new FSI is 0.50. Since the developmental period of one year is too short, the FSI should be refined more as the data are accumulated more.