• Title/Summary/Keyword: fog prediction

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The Importance of Fog prediction at the Incheon Int'l Airport through flight delay and cancel statistics (인천국제공항에서의 운항을 통해서 살펴본 안개예측의 중요성)

  • Leem, H.H.;Kim, D.H.;Song, K.W.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2005
  • According to the aviational definition, the fog is an obscuration phenomenon when prevailing visibility becomes less than 1,000m. Fog defined above causes so many aviation traffic problems like detour, flight delay and cancel. Therefore this study investigated quantitatively the fog effects on flight operation using flight delay and cancel statistic data during last four years from 1st Jul. 2001 to 30th Jun. 2005 at the Incheon Int'l Airport. The results of this study show that the hazardous meteorological condition is a important cause of flight delay and cancel, especially fog phenomenon. And it is expected that the results of this study give us the necessary and importance of fog prediction at the Incheon Int'l Airport.

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Study on Classification of Fog Type based on Its Generation Mechanism and Fog Predictability Using Empirical Method (경험적 방법을 통한 발생학적 한반도 안개 구분과 안개 발생 예측가능성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Dong;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we developed a fog classification algorithm to classify fog type based on fog generation mechanism. For the analysis period of 1986-2005, 15,748 fog events had been reported from the 40 observational sites in South Korea. Thus, practically, it is almost impossible to individually classify the fog type of the whole fog events occurred in South Korea manually. In this study, the characteristics of fog during the research period were investigated and the fog classification flowchart were developed base on the analysis, and the fog classification algorithm was applied for the classification of fogs occurred at the observational sites. Finally, the classified fog-type and hindcasted fog occurance results obtained from the flowchart were evaluated for verification.

A Study on Prediction System of Sea Fogs in the East Sea (동해의 해무 예측 시스템 연구)

  • 서장원;오희진;안중배;윤용훈
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2003
  • We have found that the east coast of Korea has had few sea fogs on January, February, November and December for the past 20 years by the analysis of monthly fog frequency and duration time. These phenomena appear to relate to the topographical characteristics of which the Taebaek Mountains descends toward the east to bar the radiation fog. On the other hand, the cause of occurring the spring and summer fog which has 90% of the whole frequency is divided into three cases. The first is the steam fog caused by the advection of the northeast cold air current on the East Sea due to the extension of Okhotsk High. The second is the advection fog caused by cooling and saturation of warm airmass advected on cold sea surface. And the last is the frontal fog caused by the supply of enough vapor due to the movement of low-pressure system and the advection of cold air behind a cold front. While, we simulate the sea fog for the period of the case studies by implementing fog prediction system(DUT-METRI) that makes it possible to forecast the fog in the vertical section of neighborhood of the East Sea and to predict the sea surface wind, relative humidity, ceiling height, visibility etc. Finally we verified this result by satellite image.

A Flashover Prediction Method by the Leakage Current Monitoring in the Contaminated Polymer Insulator (누설 전류 모니터링에 의한 오손된 고분자 애자에서의 섬락 예지 방법)

  • 박재준;송영철
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers C
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.364-369
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    • 2004
  • In this Paper, a flashover prediction method using the leakage current in the contaminated EPDM distribution polymer insulator is proposed. The leakage currents on the insulator were measured simultaneously with the different salt fog application such as 25g, 50g, and 75g per liter of deionized water. Then, the measured leakage currents were enveloped and transformed as the CDFS using the Hilbert transform and the level crossing rate, respectively. The obtained CDFS having different gradients(angles) were used as a important factor for the flashover prediction of the contaminated polymer insulator. Thus, the average angle change with an identical salt fog concentration was within a range of 20 degrees, and the average angle change among the different salt fog concentrations was 5 degrees. However, it is hard to be distinguished each other because the gradient differences among the CDFS were very small. So, the new weighting value was defined and used to solve this problem. Through simulation, it Is verified that the proposed method has the capability of the flashover prediction.

A Case Study of Coastal Fog Event Causing Flight Cancellation and Traffic Accidents (항공기 결항과 연쇄 교통사고를 야기한 연안안개 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Young Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • A heavy foggy event accompanying with complex coastal fog was investigated in this study. This heavy foggy event occurred on FEB 11, 2015. Due to reduced visibility with this foggy event induced more than 100times serial traffic accidents over the Young-jong highway, and Flights from 04:30 AM to 10:00 AM were cancelled on Inchon International Airport. This heavy foggy event was occurred in synoptic and mesoscale environments but dense coastal fog were combined with a combination of sea fog, steam fog, and radiation fog. This kind of coastal fog can predicted by accurate analysis of the direction of the air flow, sea surface temperature(SST), and 925hPa isotherms from numerical weather prediction charts and real time analysis charts.

A Study on Fog Forecasting Method through Data Mining Techniques in Jeju (데이터마이닝 기법들을 통한 제주 안개 예측 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Mi;Bae, Joo-Hyun;Park, Da-Bin
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.603-613
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    • 2016
  • Fog may have a significant impact on road conditions. In an attempt to improve fog predictability in Jeju, we conducted machine learning with various data mining techniques such as tree models, conditional inference tree, random forest, multinomial logistic regression, neural network and support vector machine. To validate machine learning models, the results from the simulation was compared with the fog data observed over Jeju(184 ASOS site) and Gosan(185 ASOS site). Predictive rates proposed by six data mining methods are all above 92% at two regions. Additionally, we validated the performance of machine learning models with WRF (weather research and forecasting) model meteorological outputs. We found that it is still not good enough for operational fog forecast. According to the model assesment by metrics from confusion matrix, it can be seen that the fog prediction using neural network is the most effective method.

Study on the Prediction of Surface Color Change of Cultural Properties Materials by Fog Occurrence (안개 발생에 따른 문화재 표면의 색 변화 예측 연구)

  • Han, Ye Bin;Park, Sang Hyeon;Yu, Ji A;Chung, Yong Jae
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.491-500
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    • 2016
  • Fog is atmospheric in which tiny drops of water vapor are suspended in the air near the ground. Its form, occurrence, etc., change according to the temperature, relative humidity, wind and geographical features of the space around it. In particular, fog tends to occur near a source of water because of temperature and relative humidity difference. These days, climate change is increasingly affecting the occurrence of fog. Therefore the purpose of this study was to investigate how fog affects materials that are part of our cultural properties through outdoor exposure tests and artificial degradation. The degradation evaluation of materials as a function of fog occurrence frequency, showed that the color of metals changed noticeably, whereas dyed silk and Dancheong showed degradation on the surface and color differences but no particular tendencies. Therefore, damage prediction by color differences as a function of fog occurrence frequency was based on metal samples, which showed constant color differences. Through a comparison of the predictive value and color difference by outdoor exposure, the accuracy and applicability of the damage prediction formula was confirmed. If a more complex damage prediction formula is created, it is expected that prediction of the degree of material damage in the field would be possible.

The Characteristics of the Fog and Analysis of the Advection.Radiation Fog by KLAPS in Honam Region (호남지방 안개 특성 및 KLAPS를 통한 이류.복사안개 사례 연구)

  • Won, Hyo-Sung;Yu, Keun-Gi;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.298-310
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    • 2011
  • Recently the traffics and transportation hazzards by fog are tremendously Increased. There occurred the greater traffic disaster by Dense Fog of Oct.2006. In this study frequent occurrences of advection fogs centerd over Honam Prov are investigated. Increment of transportation during the Fog period for 1996~2005(decade)are statistically analyzed with Honam Prov.'s fogs. For Honam west coast(Gunsan, Mokpo), inland of Honam(Junju, Gwangju, Suncheon), Honam south coast(Wando, Yepsu), Wind, Dew point, Diff. of air and sea temp. relative humidity are classified between 12 hours before and on time of fog with three Dimensional Analysis System(KLAPS). High frequencies of advection-radiation Fog occurrence in western Coasts except for Suncheon. The application of fog characteristics analyzed by KLAPS for denser fog over the western coast in Fall to Fog prediction and special advisory issues. The advection-radiation fog can occure favorably when the moisture index is less than $2^{\circ}C$, relative humidity is greater than 90%, but the moisture depth is under 1.5 km. In addition when the height of 925 hPa is rising, then fog occurs, but for sinking is disappearing.

Analysis of Meteorological Features and Prediction Probability Associated with the Fog Occurrence at Chuncheon (춘천의 안개발생과 관련된 기상특성분석 및 수치모의)

  • Lee Hwa Woon;Lee Kwi Ok;Baek Seung-Joo;Kim Dong Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.303-313
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    • 2005
  • In this study, meteorological characteristics concerning the occurrence of fog are analyzed using 4-years $(2000\~2003)$ data at Chuncheon and the probability of prediction is investigated. From the analysis of meteorological characteristics, the fog at Chuncheon occurred before sunrise time and disappeared after that time and lasted for $2\~4$ hours. When fog occurred, on the whole, wind direction was blew the northerly and wind speed was below 2.1m/s. Especially, about $42\%$ of foggy day fell on the calm $(0\~0.2\;ms^{-1})$ conditions. The difference between air temperature and dew point temperature near the surface were mainly less than $2^{\circ}C$. For the lack of water surface temperature, the water surface temperature was calculated by using Water Quality River Reservoir System (WQRRS) and then it was used as the surface boundary condition of MM5. The numerical experiment was carried out for 2 days from 1300 LST on 14 October 2003 to 1300 LST on 16 October 2003 and fog was simulated at dawn on 15 and 16 October 2003. Simulated air temperature and dew point temperature indicate the similar tendency to observation and the simulated difference between air temperature and dew point temperature has also the similar tendency within $2^{\circ}C$. Thus, the occurrence of fog is well simulated in the terms of the difference between air temperature and dew point temperature. Horizontal distribution of the difference between air temperature and dew point temperature from the numerical experiment indicates occurrence, dissipation and lasting time of fog at Chuncheon. In Chuncheon, there is close correlation between the frequency of fog day and outflow from Soyang reservoir and high frequency of occurrence due to the difference between air and cold outlet water temperature.

Development and Verification of the Fog Stability Index for Incheon International Airport based on the Measured Fog Characteristics (인천국제공항의 안개 특성에 따른 안개 안정 지수 FSI(Fog Stability Index) 개발 및 검증)

  • Song, Yunyoung;Yum, Seong Soo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.443-452
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    • 2013
  • The original Fog Stability Index (FSI) is formulated as FSI=$2(T-T_d)+2(T-T_{850})+WS_{850}$, where $T-T_d$ is dew point deficit (temperature-dew point temperature), $T-T_{850}$ is atmospheric stability measure (temperature-temperature at 850 hPa altitude) and $WS_{850}$ is wind speed at 850 hPa altitude. As a way to improve fog prediction at Incheon International Airport (IIA), we develop the modified FSI for IIA, using the meteorological data at IIA for two years from June 2011 to May 2013, the first one year for development and the second one year for validation. The relative contribution of the three parameters of the modified FSI is 9: 1: 0, indicating that $WS_{850}$ is found to be a non-contributing factor for fog formation at IIA. The critical success index (CSI) of the modified FSI is 0.68. Further development is made to consider the fact that fogs at IIA are highly influenced by advection of moisture from the Yellow Sea. One added parameter after statistical evaluation of the several candidate parameters is the dew point deficit at a buoy over the Yellow Sea. The relative contribution of the four parameters (including the new one) of the newly developed FSI is 10: 2: 0.5: 6.4. The CSI of the new FSI is 0.50. Since the developmental period of one year is too short, the FSI should be refined more as the data are accumulated more.