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A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

Receipt of Official Documents after the Status Change of the Office of Crown Properties in The Great Han Empire (대한제국기 내장원의 위상 변화와 공문서 접수)

  • Park, Sung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.36
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    • pp.35-67
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    • 2013
  • As the office of crown properties expanded to financial structure having jurisdiction over various nation's purse in the Great Han Empire, its official document form has been changed. Unlike the early days, they had used official paper stamped with the words 'the Office of Crown Properties' eliminating 'Department of the Royal Household'. Also, the title on stamp of government position changed to 'Recipient of the Official of Crown Properties'. As the office of crown properties expanded as a great financial structure, it has grown in stature as an independent structure, and it was reflected in official document form. Such change was shown in document distribution system. The recipient of report from each district was the First Lord of Department of the Royal Household until 1897; however, the recipients of reports were mostly the office of Crown Properties from 1899. The Office of Crown Properties could not issue an official order before Aug 1899, since then the Office of Crown Properties had issued official orders to each district. However, the Office of Crown Properties could not handle the document in an equal position to the central organization yet. However, from Sep. 1900, the Office of Crown Properties handle the document with district organizations in equal position to the central organization, and a records office had been established in the Office of Crown Properties. Also, the Office of Crown Properties had handled official documents as an independent organization getting out of belonging organization to the department of Royal Household. Since the records office was established in Sep. 1900, the Office of Crown Properties had written receipt book autonomously. Comparing the receipt books in 1901 to the receipt books in 1905 and 1906, receipt numbers had been appeared from the book in 1905 and the organization in charge of the documents was recorded on some documents. Since no receipt book was found in 1902~1904, it is unknown when receipt number had been started indicating on the book. Seeing that the receipt number on the book of 1905 matched with contents on the receipt stamp, the receipt number has started indicating from around July, 1902; the period the receipt stamp has been started to use. Unlike the receipt stamp, the department in charge was indicated on the receipt book. It is because that the Office of Crown Properties changed writing system. Instead of classifying divisions, the Office of Crown Properties recorded in a book by order to receive, provided serial number, and wrote the department on the bottom of receipt book to classify by department in charge. Since establishment of the records office in Sep. 1900, the Office of Crown Properties had confirmed the receipt of document by stamping 'receipt of the Office of Crown Properties' and made receipt books as the office had started handled documents independently. Also, the Office of Crown Properties changed its system integrating division and recording in one book from the intial system classifying the book by division then receipt number and department in charge were indicated on the book. Also, receipt system has stabilized by stamping the receipt date and number on the received document.

Distribution and Antimicrobial Resistance of Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria during 2015~2020: A Single-Center Study in Incheon, South Korea (2015~2020년 동안 인천 지역 단일기관에서의 비결핵항산균 분포 및 항균제 내성률)

  • Kim, Jiwoo;Ju, Hyo-Jin;Koo, Jehyun;Lee, Hyeyoung;Park, Hyeonhwan;Song, Kyungcheol;Kim, Jayoung
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.225-232
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    • 2021
  • This study sought to investigate the distribution, antimicrobial resistance rate, and bacterial co-infection frequency of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) in a single center in Incheon, South Korea. A total of 8,258 specimens submitted for tuberculosis (TB)/NTM real-time PCR tests during the years 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. In total, 296 specimens (3.6%) were NTM positive, and the positivity increased from 2.5% (30/1,209) in 2015 to 3.8% (66/1,740) in 2020. Of 296 NTM specimens, 54.7% (162/296) were identified as the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) followed by the Mycobacterium abscessus complex (MABC) 20.9% (62/296), M. fortuitum 6.4% (19/296) and M. flavescens 3.4% (10/296). Of the NTM-positive specimens, 76.7% (227/296) were tested for drug resistance. The results showed multidrug-resistant NTM in 40.1% (91/227) and extensively drug-resistant NTM in 59.9% (136/227) of these specimens. Of the 145 isolates taken for bacterial culture, bacteria/fungi co-infection with NTM accounted for 43.4% (63/145), in which the most common bacterial species was Klebsiella pneumonia (23.8%, 15/63). This study is the first report on the distribution and antimicrobial resistance of NTM in Incheon. As the proportion of NTM infections increases, active treatment and thorough infection control are required for effective management.

Mechanism of steel pipe reinforcement grouting based on tunnel field measurement results (터널 현장 계측결과를 통한 강관보강 그라우팅의 거동 메커니즘)

  • Shin, Hyunkang;Jung, Hyuksang;Lee, Yong-joo;Kim, Nag-young;Ko, Sungil
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.133-149
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to report the behavioral mechanism of steel pipe reinforcement grouting, which is being actively used to ensure the stability of the excavation surface during tunnel excavation, based on measurements taken at the actual site. After using a 12 m steel pipe attached with a shape displacement meter and a strain gauge to reinforce the actual tunnel surface, behavioral characteristics were identified by analyzing the measured deformation and stress of the steel pipe. Taking into account that the steel pipes were overlapped every 6 m, the measured data up to 7 m of excavation were used. In addition, the behavioral characteristics of the steel pipe reinforcement according to the difference in strength were also examined by applying steel pipes with different allowable stresses (SGT275 and SGT550). As a result of analyzing the behavior of steel pipes for 7 hours after the first excavation for 1 m and before proceeding with the next excavation, the stress redistribution due to the arching effect caused by the excavation relaxation load was observed. As excavation proceeded by 1 m, the excavated section exhibited the greatest deformation during excavation of 4 to 6 m due to the stress distribution of the three-dimensional relaxation load, and deformation and stress were generated in the steel pipe installed in the ground ahead of the tunnel face. As a result of comparing the behavior of SGT275 steel pipe (yield strength 275 MPa) and SGT550 steel pipe (yield strength 550 MPa), the difference in the amount of deformation was up to 18 times and the stress was up to 12 times; the stronger the steel pipe, the better it was at responding to the relaxation load. In this study, the behavior mechanism of steel pipe reinforcement grouting in response to the arching effect due to the relaxation load was identified based on the measured data during the actual tunnel excavation, and the results were reported.

Trends in QA/QC of Phytoplankton Data for Marine Ecosystem Monitoring (해양생태계 모니터링을 위한 식물플랑크톤 자료의 정도 관리 동향)

  • YIH, WONHO;PARK, JONG WOO;SEONG, KYEONG AH;PARK, JONG-GYU;YOO, YEONG DU;KIM, HYUNG SEOP
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.220-237
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    • 2021
  • Since the functional importance of marine phytoplankton was firstly advocated from early 1880s massive data on the species composition and abundance were produced by classical microscopic observation and the advanced auto-imaging technologies. Recently, pigment composition resulted from direct chemical analysis of phytoplankton samples or indirect remote sensing could be used for the group-specific quantification, which leads us to more diversified data production methods and for more improved spatiotemporal accessibilities to the target data-gathering points. In quite a few cases of many long-term marine ecosystem monitoring programs the phytoplankton species composition and abundance was included as a basic monitoring item. The phytoplankton data could be utilized as a crucial evidence for the long-term change in phytoplankton community structure and ecological functioning at the monitoring stations. Usability of the phytoplankton data sometimes is restricted by the differences in data producers throughout the whole monitoring period. Methods for sample treatments, analyses, and species identification of the phytoplankton species could be inconsistent among the different data producers and the monitoring years. In-depth study to determine the precise quantitative values of the phytoplankton species composition and abundance might be begun by Victor Hensen in late 1880s. International discussion on the quality assurance of the marine phytoplankton data began in 1969 by the SCOR Working Group 33 of ICSU. Final report of the Working group in 1974 (UNESCO Technical Papers in Marine Science 18) was later revised and published as the UNESCO Monographs on oceanographic methodology 6. The BEQUALM project, the former body of IPI (International Phytoplankton Intercomparison) for marine phytoplankton data QA/QC under ISO standard, was initiated in late 1990. The IPI is promoting international collaboration for all the participating countries to apply the QA/QC standard established from the 20 years long experience and practices. In Korea, however, such a QA/QC standard for marine phytoplankton species composition and abundance data is not well established by law, whereas that for marine chemical data from measurements and analysis has been already set up and managed. The first priority might be to establish a QA/QC standard system for species composition and abundance data of marine phytoplankton, then to be extended to other functional groups at the higher consumer level of marine food webs.

The Dynamics of CO2 Budget in Gwangneung Deciduous Old-growth Forest: Lessons from the 15 years of Monitoring (광릉 낙엽활엽수 노령림의 CO2 수지 역학: 15년 관측으로부터의 교훈)

  • Yang, Hyunyoung;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon;Ryu, Daun;Kim, Su-Jin;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Park, Chan Woo;Yun, Soon Jin
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.198-221
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    • 2021
  • After large-scale reforestation in the 1960s and 1970s, forests in Korea have gradually been aging. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of old-growth forests is theoretically near zero; however, it can be a CO2 sink or source depending on the intervention of disturbance or management. In this study, we report the CO2 budget dynamics of the Gwangneung deciduous old-growth forest (GDK) in Korea and examined the following two questions: (1) is the preserved GDK indeed CO2 neutral as theoretically known? and (2) can we explain the dynamics of CO2 budget by the common mechanisms reported in the literature? To answer, we analyzed the 15-year long CO2 flux data measured by eddy covariance technique along with other biometeorological data at the KoFlux GDK site from 2006 to 2020. The results showed that (1) GDK switched back-and-forth between sink and source of CO2 but averaged to be a week CO2 source (and turning to a moderate CO2 source for the recent five years) and (2) the interannual variability of solar radiation, growing season length, and leaf area index showed a positive correlation with that of gross primary production (GPP) (R2=0.32~0.45); whereas the interannual variability of both air and surface temperature was not significantly correlated with that of ecosystem respiration (RE). Furthermore, the machine learning-based model trained using the dataset of early monitoring period (first 10 years) failed to reproduce the observed interannual variations of GPP and RE for the recent five years. Biomass data analysis suggests that carbon emissions from coarse woody debris may have contributed partly to the conversion to a moderate CO2 source. To properly understand and interpret the long-term CO2 budget dynamics of GDK, new framework of analysis and modeling based on complex systems science is needed. Also, it is important to maintain the flux monitoring and data quality along with the monitoring of coarse woody debris and disturbances.

Study on Bandwidth and Characteristic Impedance of CWP3DCS (Coplanar Waveguide Employing Periodic 3D Coupling Structures) for the Development of a Radio Communication FISoC (Fully-integrated System on Chip) Semiconductor Device (완전집적형 무선통신 SoC 반도체 소자 개발을 위한 주기적인 3차원 결합구조를 가지는 코프레너 선로에 대한 대역폭 및 임피던스 특성연구)

  • Yun, Young
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we investigated the characteristic impedance and bandwidth of CPW3DCS (coplanar waveguide employing periodic 3D coupling structures), and examined its potential for the development of a marine radio communication FISoC (fully-integrated system on chip) semiconductor device. To extract bandwidth and characteristic impedance of the CPW3DC, we induced a measurement-based equation reflecting measured insertion loss, and compared the measured results of the propagation constant β and characteristic impedance with the measured ones. According to the results of the comparison, the calculated results show a good agreement with the measured ones. Concretely, the propagation constant β and characteristic impedance exhibited an maximum error of 3.9% and 6.4%, respectively. According to the results of this study, in a range of LT = 30 ~ 150 ㎛ for the length of periodic structures, the CPW3DC exhibited a passband characteristic of 121 GHz, and a very small dependency of characteristic impedance on frequency. We could realize a low impedance transmission line with a characteristic impedance lower than 20 Ω by using CPW3DCS with a line width of 20 ㎛, which was highly reduced, compared with a 3mm line width of conventional transmission line with the same impedance. The characteristic impedance was easily adjusted by changing LT. The above results indicate that the CPW3DC can be usefully used for the development of a wireless communication FISoC (fully-integrated system on chip) semiconductor device. This is the first report of a study on the bandwidth of the CPW3DC.

Identification and Chemotype Profiling of Fusarium Head Blight Disease in Triticale (국내 재배 트리티케일에 발생한 붉은곰팡이병의 다양성 및 독소화학형 분석)

  • Yang, Jung-Wook;Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Mi-Rang;Kang, In-Jeong;Jeong, Jung-Hyun;Park, Myoung Ryoul;Ku, Ja-Hwan;Kim, Wook-Han
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.172-179
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to assess the disease incidence and distribution of toxigenic in Korean triticale. The pathogen of triticale that cause Fusarium head blight were isolated from five different triticale cultivars that cultivated in Suwon Korea at 2021 year. The 72 candidate were classified as a Fusarium asiaticum by morphology analysis and by ITS1, TEF-1α gene sequence analysis. And the results of pathogenicity with 72 isolates on seedling triticale, 71 isolates were showed disease symptom. Also, seven out of 71 Fusarium isolates were inoculated on the wheat, to test the pathogenicity on the different host. The results showed more low pathogenicity on the wheat than triticale. The results of analysis of toxin type with 72 isolates, 64.6% isolates were produced nivalenol type toxin and other 4.6% and 30.8% isolates were produce 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol, respectively. To select fungicide for control, the 72 Fusarium isolates were cultivated on the media that containing four kinds fungicide. The captan, hexaconazole, and difenoconazole·propiconazole treated Fusarium isolates were not showed resistance response against each fungicide. However, six isolates out of 72 isolates, showed resistance response to fludioxonil. This study is first report that F. asiaticum causes Fusarium head blight disease of triticale in Korea.

Perception of Korean Residential Gardens and Gardening in the 1920~30s (1920~30년대 한국 주택정원 인식과 정원가꾸기 양상)

  • Gil, Jihye;Park, Hee-Soung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2022
  • The 1920s and 1930s were when new trends became prominent in Korean housing architecture. This study began with a curiosity about the appearance of residential gardens during the transition period, when housing types were changing. Since gardens are constantly evolving and living spaces, it is not easy to give a clear picture of their evolution. However, through popular magazines and newspaper articles published in the 1920-30s, this study investigated how people perceived the gardens socially and how they engaged in gardening. First, the study of Gyeongseong's urbanization process revealed that people perceived gardens as a way to give natural beauty to the urban environment. Therefore, the creation of a residential garden was strongly encouraged. Second, the housing improvement movement, which the architects actively discussed during this period, emphasized that a garden is a factor that can help improve the quality of the residential environment in terms of hygiene and landscape aesthetics. Third, since the media provided information on gardening, it was confirmed that the number of people engaged in gardening as a hobby increased. As designers and gardeners who had received a modern education became more active, the concept of "designed gardens" was formed. Lastly, although the houses were divided into various types, the shapes of the gardens did not show a significant difference according to the architecture type. They tended to embrace the time's ideal garden design and style. Therefore, even in a traditional hanok, Western-style gardens were naturally harmonized into the overall architecture, and exotic plant species could be found. Although the gardens found in media images were limited to those belonging to the homes of the intelligentsia, it can be seen that representativeness was secured, considering the popularity and ripple effect of the media. Therefore, this study contributes to the literature as it confirmed the ideal gardens and gardening methods in the 1920s and 30s.

Trend Analysis of Documenting the Gardens of Old Houses with the Measurement Drawings of National Folklore Cultural Heritage (국가민속문화재의 실측도면을 통해 살펴본 고택 정원의 기록화 경향 분석)

  • LIM, Cheyeon;LEE, Jaeyong
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.46-58
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the documentation trend of garden components such as plants, infrastructure, unit facilities, and structures, based on 188 measurement drawings of 94 old houses in a report on the documentation of the national folklore cultural heritage. The findings are as follows. First, it was found that plants and structures continuously appeared as the subject of measurement drawings, while infrastructure was often omitted. It was confirmed that unit facilities, which are smaller than other components, were frequently excluded from the documentation subject as well due to frequent changes such as movement, loss, and expansion. Second, the level of expression in measurement drawings showed different aspects for each component. The unit facilities showed a large change over time with respect to the level of documentation, and the level of documentation was somewhat polarized, particularly toward the latter stage. This suggests that the level of documenting the drawings limited to specific facilities improved, but the overall level of drawings did not improve, such as a lack of diversification of expression techniques suitable for various unit facilities. On the other hand, it was confirmed that the level of documenting the drawings for plants, infrastructure and structures did not change to a significant degree, implying that no improvements were made to the expression of components. Third, as for the technique of detailed expression, in the case of plants, vegetation status was prepared without distinction of old or protected trees that have historical value. Above all, there was no record of the vegetation structure that could help grasp the vegetation landscape of the outer area. As for the infrastructure, there was no consistent expression technique to systematically convey topographic changes such as the height and slope of the land. In addition, since there was no subtype classification defined for unit facilities and structures, there was no subject or method of documentation. This study is meaningful in that it expanded the category of documentation, which has been concentrated on buildings in old houses, to gardens, and called attention to the need for documenting the gardens for the preservation and management of old houses as an integration of the building and outer area.