• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.157-178
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• 2009

Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.103-123
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• 1999

Input filtering as a preprocessing method is so much crucial to get good performance in time series forecasting. There are a few preprocessing methods (i.e. ARMA outputs as time domain filters, and Fourier transform or wavelet transform as time-frequency domain filters) for handling time series. Specially, the time-frequency domain filters describe the fractal structure of financial markets better than the time domain filters due to theoretically additional frequency information. Therefore, we, first of all, try to describe and analyze specially some issues on the effectiveness of different filtering methods from viewpoint of the performance of a neural network based forecasting. And then we discuss about neural network model architecture issues, for example, what type of neural network learning architecture is selected for our time series forecasting, and what input size should be applied to a model. In this study an input selection problem is limited to a size selection of the lagged input variables. To solve this problem, we simulate on analyzing and comparing a few neural networks having different model architecture and also use an embedding dimension measure as chaotic time series analysis or nonlinear dynamic analysis to reduce the dimensionality (i.e. the size of time delayed input variables) of the models. Throughout our study, experiments for integration methods of joint time-frequency analysis and neural network techniques are applied to a case study of daily Korean won / U. S dollar exchange returns and finally we suggest an integration framework for future research from our experimental results.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.53-61
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• 2021

The quantified analysis of damages to wastewater treatment plants by natural disasters is essential to maintain the stability of wastewater treatment systems. However, studies on the quantified analysis of natural disaster effects on wastewater treatment systems are very rare. In this study, a total disaster index (DI) was developed to quantify the various damages to wastewater treatment systems from natural disasters using two statistical methods (i.e., AHP: analytic hierarchy process and PCA: principal component analysis). Typhoons, heavy rain, and earthquakes are considered as three major natural disasters for the development of the DI. A total of 15 input variables from public open-source data (e.g., statistical yearbook of wastewater treatment system, meteorological data and financial status in local governments) were used for the development of a DI for 199 wastewater treatment plants in Korea. The total DI was calculated from the weighted sum of the disaster indices of the three natural disasters (i.e., TI for typhoon, RI for heavy rain, and EI for earthquake). The three disaster indices of each natural disaster were determined from four components, such as possibility of occurrence and expected damages. The relative weights of the four components to calculate the disaster indices (TI, RI and EI) for each of the three natural disasters were also determined from AHP. PCA was used to determine the relative weights of the input variables to calculate the four components. The relative weights of TI, RI and EI to calculate total DI were determined as 0.547, 0.306, and 0.147 respectively.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.151-171
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• 2015

This study examined the concepts of the Internet of Things(IoT), the major issue and IoT trend in the domestic and international market. also reviewed the advent of IoT era which caused a 'Paradigm Shift'. This study proposed a solution for the appropriate corresponding strategy in terms of Enterprise. Global competition began in the IoT market. So, Businesses to be competitive and responsive, the government's efforts, as well as the efforts of companies themselves is needed. In particular, in order to cope with the dynamic environment appropriately, faster and more efficient strategy is required. In other words, proposed a management strategy that can respond the IoT competitive era on tipping point through the vision of paradigm shift. We forecasted and proposed the emergence of paradigm shift through a comparative analysis of past management paradigm and IoT management paradigm as follow; I) Knowledge & learning oriented management, II) Technology & innovation oriented management, III) Demand driven management, IV) Global collaboration management. The Knowledge & learning oriented management paradigm is expected to be a new management paradigm due to the development of IT technology development and information processing technology. In addition to the rapid development such as IT infrastructure and processing of data, storage, knowledge sharing and learning has become more important. Currently Hardware-oriented management paradigm will be changed to the software-oriented paradigm. In particular, the software and platform market is a key component of the IoT ecosystem, has been estimated to be led by Technology & innovation oriented management. In 2011, Gartner announced the concept of "Demand-Driven Value Networks(DDVN)", DDVN emphasizes value of the whole of the network. Therefore, Demand driven management paradigm is creating demand for advanced process, not the process corresponding to the demand simply. Global collaboration management paradigm create the value creation through the fusion between technology, between countries, between industries. In particular, cooperation between enterprises that has financial resources and brand power and venture companies with creative ideas and technical will generate positive synergies. Through this, The large enterprises and small companies that can be win-win environment would be built. Cope with the a paradigm shift and to establish a management strategy of Enterprise process, this study utilized the 'RTE cyclone model' which proposed by Gartner. RTE concept consists of three stages, Lead, Operate, Manage. The Lead stage is utilizing capital to strengthen the business competitiveness. This stages has the goal of linking to external stimuli strategy development, also Execute the business strategy of the company for capital and investment activities and environmental changes. Manege stage is to respond appropriately to threats and internalize the goals of the enterprise. Operate stage proceeds to action for increasing the efficiency of the services across the enterprise, also achieve the integration and simplification of the process, with real-time data capture. RTE(Real Time Enterprise) concept has the value for practical use with the management strategy. Appropriately applied in this study, we propose a 'IoT-RTE Cyclone model' which emphasizes the agility of the enterprise. In addition, based on the real-time monitoring, analysis, act through IT and IoT technology. 'IoT-RTE Cyclone model' that could integrate the business processes of the enterprise each sector and support the overall service. therefore the model be used as an effective response strategy for Enterprise. In particular, IoT-RTE Cyclone Model is to respond to external events, waste elements are removed according to the process is repeated. Therefore, it is possible to model the operation of the process more efficient and agile. This IoT-RTE Cyclone Model can be used as an effective response strategy of the enterprise in terms of IoT era of rapidly changing because it supports the overall service of the enterprise. When this model leverages a collaborative system among enterprises it expects breakthrough cost savings through competitiveness, global lead time, minimizing duplication.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.93-113
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• 2021

Service orientation and customer orientation are recognized as important success factors in service companies. However, these constructs are evaluated through self-diagnosis within the service company based on service delivery experience. For this reason, Fintech companies that provide financial services based on non-face-to-face channels such as mobile APP have limitations in evaluating their service orientation and customer orientation. Therefore, in this study, the perceived customer orientation is conceptualized so that service orientation and customer orientation can be evaluated through customer evaluation. In addition, the antecedents and consequences of the perceived customer orientation based on the technology acceptance model were demonstrated. As a result, it was confirmed the mediating effect of perceived customer orientation in the relationship between perceived ease of use and usefulness and customer's continuous use intention and word of mouth intention. This study laid the foundation for the Fintech companies that provide all financial services throughout non-face-to-face to measure their service orientation and customer orientation through customer evaluation and utilize them in establishing service operation strategies.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.139-155
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• 2009

For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

• The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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• no.10
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• pp.145-194
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• 2004

Church archives are the evidential instruments to remember church activity and important information aggregate which has administrative, legal, financial, historical, faithful value as the collective memory of church community. So it must be managed necessarily and the management orders are based on the Bible. The western churches which have a correct understanding about the importance of church records and management order have taken multilateral endeavor to create, manage church archives systematically. On the other hand, korean churches don't have the records management systems. Therefore, Records created in individual church are mostly managed unsystematically and exist as 'backlogs', finally, they are destructed without reasonable formalities. In those problems, the purpose of this study is to offer the way of records classification and disposition instrument with recognition that records management should be done from the time of creation or previous to it. As a concrete device for them, I tried to embody the function-based classification method and disposal schedule. I prefer the function-based classification and disposal schedule to the organization and function-based classification to present stable classification and disposal schedule, as we can say the best feature of the modern organization is multilateral and also churches have same aspect. For this study, I applied DIRKS(Designing and Implementing Recordkeeping Systems) manual which National Archives of Australia provide and guidelines in ICA/IRMT series to construct the theory of the function-based classification in individual churches. Through them, it was possible to present a model for preliminary investigation, analysis of business activity, records survey, disposal schedule. And I took an example of 'Myong Sung Presbyterian Church' which belong to 'The Presbyterian church in Korea'. I explained in detail codifying process and results of preliminary investigation in 'Myong Sung Presbyterian Church', analysis of business activity based on it, process of presenting the function-based classification and disposal schedule got from all those steps. For establishing disposal schedule, I planned 'General Disposal Schedule' and 'Agency Disposal Schedule' which categorized 'general function' and 'agency function' of an agency, according to DIRKS in Australia and ICA/IRMT. And for estimation of disposal date I had a thorough grasp of important records category presented in 'Constitution of General Assembly', interview to know the importance of tasks, and added examples of disposal schedule in western church archives. This study has significance that it was intended to embody 'the function-based classification' and 'disposal schedule' suitable for individual church, applying DIRKS in Australia and ICA/IRMT on absence of the theory or example which tried to present the function-based classification and disposal schedule for individual church. Also it is meaningful to present a model that can classify and disposal real records according to the function in individual church which has no recognition or way about records management.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.139-155
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• 2014

This study is to examine the linkage of volatility between changes in the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy. The results were as follows: First, autocorrelation or serial correlation did not exist in the classic RS model, but long-term memory was present in the modified RS model. Second, unit root did not exist in the unit root test for all periods, and the series were a stable explanatory power and a long-term memory with the normal conditions in the ARFIMA model. Third, in the multivariate asymmetric BEKK and VAR model before the financial crisis, it showed that there was a strong influence of the own market of Taiwan and UK in the conditional mean equation, and a strong spillover effect from Japan to India, from Taiwan to China(Korea, US), from US(Japan) to UK in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, GARCH showed a strong spillover effect that indicated the same direction as the result of ARCH coefficient of the market itself. Asymmetric effects in three home markets and between markets existed. Fourth, after the financial crisis, in the conditional mean equation, only the domestic market in Taiwan showed strong influences, and strong spillover effects existed from India to US, from Taiwan to Japan, from Korea to Germany in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, strong spillover effects were the same as the result of the pre-crisis and asymmetric effect in the domestic market in UK was present, and one-way asymmetric effect existed in Germany from Taiwan. Therefore, the results of this study presented the linkage between the volatilities of the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy, observing and confirming the asymmetric reactions and return(volatility) spillover effects between the stock market of India and other countries.

• The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.87-103
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• 2010

Today, banks offer banking services to a large number of customers by a branch network spread all over the nation. The quantity and quality of services are advanced by fierce competition in their field. So they are attracting customers based on high confidence in the financial industry. In spite of these developments, the retail bank market currently does not satisfy customers demands and various desires. In this research, the problems with banking services were observed. It was proposed that the banking services apply a franchise business model. First, this proposal will reduce the business expenses by collaborating profits with head office of banks and affiliates. Second, it will offer greater satisfaction to the customers. Through the mutual collaboration with head office of banks and affiliates in this proposal, it is anticipated that banks will reduce their business expenses and improve services for customers by offering convenient and fast banking services. It is also expected that the banks will expand and make up their weakness through increased profit and customers will be provided additional services.