• Title/Summary/Keyword: financial machine learning

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Federated Learning-Internet of Underwater Things (연합 학습기반 수중 사물 인터넷)

  • Shrutika Sinha;G., Pradeep Reddy;Soo-Hyun Park
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2023.11a
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    • pp.140-142
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    • 2023
  • Federated learning (FL) is a new paradigm in machine learning (ML) that enables multiple devices to collaboratively train a shared ML model without sharing their local data. FL is well-suited for applications where data is sensitive or difficult to transmit in large volumes, or where collaborative learning is required. The Internet of Underwater Things (IoUT) is a network of underwater devices that collect and exchange data. This data can be used for a variety of applications, such as monitoring water quality, detecting marine life, and tracking underwater vehicles. However, the harsh underwater environment makes it difficult to collect and transmit data in large volumes. FL can address these challenges by enabling devices to train a shared ML model without having to transmit their data to a central server. This can help to protect the privacy of the data and improve the efficiency of training. In this view, this paper provides a brief overview of Fed-IoUT, highlighting its various applications, challenges, and opportunities.

An exercise algorithm for mezzanine products using artificial neural networks (인공신경망을 이용한 메자닌 상품의 행사 알고리즘)

  • Jae Pil, Yu
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2023
  • Mezzanine products are financial investment products with both bond and stock characteristics, which are mainly issued by low-grade companies in the financial market to secure liquidity. Therefore, bondholders investing in mezzanine products must make decisions about when they want to convert to stocks, along with whether they invest in mezzanine products issued by the company. Therefore, in this paper, a total of 2,000 learning data and 200 predictive experimental data with stock conversion events completed by major industries are divided, and mezzanine event algorithms are designed and performance analyzed through artificial neural network models. This topic is meaningful in that it proposed a methodology to scientifically solve the difficulties of exercising mezzanine products, which are of high interest in the financial field, by applying artificial neural network technology.

Exploiting Korean Language Model to Improve Korean Voice Phishing Detection (한국어 언어 모델을 활용한 보이스피싱 탐지 기능 개선)

  • Boussougou, Milandu Keith Moussavou;Park, Dong-Joo
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.437-446
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    • 2022
  • Text classification task from Natural Language Processing (NLP) combined with state-of-the-art (SOTA) Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms as the core engine is widely used to detect and classify voice phishing call transcripts. While numerous studies on the classification of voice phishing call transcripts are being conducted and demonstrated good performances, with the increase of non-face-to-face financial transactions, there is still the need for improvement using the latest NLP technologies. This paper conducts a benchmarking of Korean voice phishing detection performances of the pre-trained Korean language model KoBERT, against multiple other SOTA algorithms based on the classification of related transcripts from the labeled Korean voice phishing dataset called KorCCVi. The results of the experiments reveal that the classification accuracy on a test set of the KoBERT model outperforms the performances of all other models with an accuracy score of 99.60%.

Research on Insurance Claim Prediction Using Ensemble Learning-Based Dynamic Weighted Allocation Model (앙상블 러닝 기반 동적 가중치 할당 모델을 통한 보험금 예측 인공지능 연구)

  • Jong-Seok Choi
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 2024
  • Predicting insurance claims is a key task for insurance companies to manage risks and maintain financial stability. Accurate insurance claim predictions enable insurers to set appropriate premiums, reduce unexpected losses, and improve the quality of customer service. This study aims to enhance the performance of insurance claim prediction models by applying ensemble learning techniques. The predictive performance of models such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), XGBoost, Stacking, and the proposed Dynamic Weighted Ensemble (DWE) model were compared and analyzed. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R2). Experimental results showed that the DWE model outperformed others in terms of evaluation metrics, achieving optimal predictive performance by combining the prediction results of Random Forest, XGBoost, LR, and LightGBM. This study demonstrates that ensemble learning techniques are effective in improving the accuracy of insurance claim predictions and suggests the potential utilization of AI-based predictive models in the insurance industry.

Biometric verified authentication of Automatic Teller Machine (ATM)

  • Jayasri Kotti
    • Advances in environmental research
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2023
  • Biometric authentication has become an essential part of modern-day security systems, especially in financial institutions like banks. A face recognition-based ATM is a biometric authentication system, that uses facial recognition technology to verify the identity of bank account holders during ATM transactions. This technology offers a secure and convenient alternative to traditional ATM transactions that rely on PIN numbers for verification. The proposed system captures users' pictures and compares it with the stored image in the bank's database to authenticate the transaction. The technology also offers additional benefits such as reducing the risk of fraud and theft, as well as speeding up the transaction process. However, privacy and data security concerns remain, and it is important for the banking sector to instrument solid security actions to protect customers' personal information. The proposed system consists of two stages: the first stage captures the user's facial image using a camera and performs pre-processing, including face detection and alignment. In the second stage, machine learning algorithms compare the pre-processed image with the stored image in the database. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of using face recognition for ATM authentication, which can enhance the security of ATMs and reduce the risk of fraud.

A Fusion Method of Co-training and Label Propagation for Prediction of Bank Telemarketing (은행 텔레마케팅 예측을 위한 레이블 전파와 협동 학습의 결합 방법)

  • Kim, Aleum;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.44 no.7
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    • pp.686-691
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    • 2017
  • Telemarketing has become the center of marketing action of the industry in the information society. Recently, machine learning has emerged in many areas, especially, financial prediction. Financial data consists of lots of unlabeled data in most parts, and therefore, it is difficult for humans to perform their labeling. In this paper, we propose a fusion method of semi-supervised learning for automatic labeling of unlabeled data to predict telemarketing. Specifically, we integrate labeling results of label propagation and co-training with a decision tree. The data with lower reliabilities are removed, and the data are extracted that have consistent label from two labeling methods. After adding them to the training set, a decision tree is learned with all of them. To confirm the usefulness of the proposed method, we conduct the experiments with a real telemarketing dataset in a Portugal bank. Accuracy of the proposed method is 83.39%, which is 1.82% higher than that of the conventional method, and precision of the proposed method is 19.37%, which is 2.67% higher than that of the conventional method. As a result, we have shown that the proposed method has a better performance as assessed by the t-test.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Investigations on data-driven stochastic optimal control and approximate-inference-based reinforcement learning methods (데이터 기반 확률론적 최적제어와 근사적 추론 기반 강화 학습 방법론에 관한 고찰)

  • Park, Jooyoung;Ji, Seunghyun;Sung, Keehoon;Heo, Seongman;Park, Kyungwook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 2015
  • Recently in the fields o f stochastic optimal control ( SOC) and reinforcemnet l earning (RL), there have been a great deal of research efforts for the problem of finding data-based sub-optimal control policies. The conventional theory for finding optimal controllers via the value-function-based dynamic programming was established for solving the stochastic optimal control problems with solid theoretical background. However, they can be successfully applied only to extremely simple cases. Hence, the data-based modern approach, which tries to find sub-optimal solutions utilizing relevant data such as the state-transition and reward signals instead of rigorous mathematical analyses, is particularly attractive to practical applications. In this paper, we consider a couple of methods combining the modern SOC strategies and approximate inference together with machine-learning-based data treatment methods. Also, we apply the resultant methods to a variety of application domains including financial engineering, and observe their performance.

Robust URL Phishing Detection Based on Deep Learning

  • Al-Alyan, Abdullah;Al-Ahmadi, Saad
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.2752-2768
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    • 2020
  • Phishing websites can have devastating effects on governmental, financial, and social services, as well as on individual privacy. Currently, many phishing detection solutions are evaluated using small datasets and, thus, are prone to sampling issues, such as representing legitimate websites by only high-ranking websites, which could make their evaluation less relevant in practice. Phishing detection solutions which depend only on the URL are attractive, as they can be used in limited systems, such as with firewalls. In this paper, we present a URL-only phishing detection solution based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) model. The proposed CNN takes the URL as the input, rather than using predetermined features such as URL length. For training and evaluation, we have collected over two million URLs in a massive URL phishing detection (MUPD) dataset. We split MUPD into training, validation and testing datasets. The proposed CNN achieves approximately 96% accuracy on the testing dataset; this accuracy is achieved with URL schemes (such as HTTP and HTTPS) removed from the URL. Our proposed solution achieved better accuracy compared to an existing state-of-the-art URL-only model on a published dataset. Finally, the results of our experiment suggest keeping the CNN up-to-date for better results in practice.

Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.