• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.127-137
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• 2019

Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.81-96
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• 2020

Berthlot's reaction spectrophotometric method is generally used for the analysis of dissolved ammonium in seawater, but in recent years, a fluorescence method using an orthophthaldialdehyde-sulfite (OPA) fluorescent reagent is actively used internationally. In this study, we investigated the effects of the detection limit between the analysis methods, the reagent refractive index inherent in the spectrophotometric method, and the use of different calibration curves to understand the cause of the difference in dissolved ammonium concentration (about 0.31 𝜇M) observed in the seawater samples and a nutrient reference material between two institutions (KIOST (spectrophotometric method, one-order linear regression gradient only), Australia CSIRO (fluorescence method, quadratic formula)) conducted onboard the Australian R/V Investigator in 2017. The method detection limit (0.063 𝜇M) and the reagent refractive index background value (0.054 𝜇M) of the spectrophotometric method measured in this study could explain the difference in dissolved ammonium concentration values of the two institutes about 20% and 17%, respectively. However, when the concentration of the calibration curve of the spectrophotometric method was calculated using the same quadratic as the fluorescence method or the slope and intercept of linear regression, the difference in the dissolved ammonium concentration between the two institutions was reduced to less than the detection limit of the spectrophotometric method. Therefore, the difference in the concentration of dissolved ammonium between the two institutions, found in the nutrient reference materials and the seawater field sample during the international onboard nutrient inter-comparison experiment, may be attributed to be the effect of the different calibration curves used in the two methods rather than the effect of the difference in two analytical methods. When comparing the dissolved ammonium data from seawater samples in the future, it is recommended to pay attention to the information on the baseline, number of standard solutions, and calibration curve used in the analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.779-793
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• 2023

Intensive and long-term aquaculture activities in Korea have generated considerable amounts of organic matter, deteriorating the sedimentary environment and ecosystem. The Korean government enacted the Fishery Management Act to preserve and manage the environment of fish farms. Based on this, a fisheries environment assessment has been conducted on fish cage farms since 2014, necessitating the development of a scientific and objective evaluation method suitable for the domestic environment. Therefore, a benthic health index (BHI) was developed using the relationship between benthic polychaete communities and organic matter, a major source of pollution in fish farms. In this study, the development process and calculation method of the BHI have been introduced. The BHI was calculated by classifying 225 species of polychaetes appearing in domestic coastal and aquaculture areas into four groups by linking the concentration gradient of the total organic carbon in the sediment and the distributional characteristics of each species and assigning differential weights to each group. Using BHI, the benthic fauna communities were assigned to one of the four ecological classes (Grade 1: Normal, Grade 2: Slightly polluted, Grade 3: Moderately polluted, and Grade 4: Heavily polluted). The application of the developed index in the field enabled effective evaluation of the Korean environment, being relatively more accurate and less affected by the season compared with the existing evaluation methods like the diversity index or AZTI's Marine Biotic Index developed overseas. In addition, using BHI will be useful in the environmental management of fish farms, as the environment can be graded in quantified figures.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.77-98
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• 1993

The intent of this study is to analyze the characteristics of distribution, patter, and deposits of the exposed debris slope landform by aerial photography interpretation, measure-ment on the topographical maps and field surveys in the southern part Taebaek mountains. It also aims to research the arrangement types of mountain slope and the landform development of debris slopes in this area. In conclusion, main observations can be summed up as follows. 1. The distribution characteristics 1)From the viewpoint of bedrocks, the distribution density of talus is high in case of the bedrock with high density of joints, sheeting structures and hard rocks, but that of the block stream is high in case of intrusive rocks with the talus line. 2)From the viewpoint of bedrocks, the distribution density of talus is high in case of the bedrock with high density of joints, sheeting structures and hard rocks, but that of the block stream is high in case of inrtusive rocks with the talus line. 2) From the viewpoint of distribution altitude, talus is mainly distributed in the 301~500 meters part above the sea level, while the block stream is distributed in the 101~300 meters part. 3) From the viewpoint of slope oriention, the distribution density of talus on the slope facing the south(S, SE, SW) is a little higher than that of talus on the slope facing the north(N, NE, NW). 2. The Pattern Characteristics 1) The tongue-shaped type among the four types is the most in number. 2) The average length of talus slope is 99 meters, especially that of talus composed of hornfels or granodiorite is longer. Foth the former is easy to make free face; the latter is easdy to produce round stones. The average length of block stream slope is 145 meters, the longest of all is one km(granodiorite). 3) The gradient of talus slope is 20~45${^\circ}$, most of them 26-30${^\croc}$; but talus composed of intrusive rocks is gentle. 4) The slope pattern of talus shows concave slope, which means readjustment of constituent debris. Some of the block stream slope patterns show concave slope at the upper slope and the lower slope, but convex slope at the middle slope; others have uneven slope. 3. The deposit characteristics 1) The average length of constituent debris is 48~172 centimeters in diameter, the sorting of debris is not bad without matrix. That of block stream is longer than that of talus; this difference of debris average diameter is funda-mentally caused by joint space of bedrocks. 2) The shape of constituent debris in talus is mainly angular, but that of the debris composed of intrusive rocks is sub-angular. The shape of constituent debris in block stream is mainly sub-roundl. 3) IN case dof talus, debris diameter is generally increasing with downward slope, but some of them are disordered and the debris diameter of the sides are larger than that of the middle part on a landform surface. In block stream, debris diameter variation is perpendicularly disordered, and the debris diameter of the middle part is generally larger than that of the sides on a landform surface. 4)The long axis orientation of debris is a not bad at the lower part of the slope in talus (only 2 of 6 talus). In block stream(2 of 3), one is good in sorting; another is not bad. The researcher thinks that the latter was caused by the collapse of constituent debris. 5) Most debris were weathered and some are secondly weathered in situ, but talus composed of fresh debris is developing. 4. The landform development of debris slopes and the arrangement types of the mountain slope 1) The formation and development period of talus is divided into two periods. The first period is formation period of talus9the last glacial period), the second period is adjustment period(postglacial age). And that of block stream is divided into three periods: the first period is production period of blocks(tertiary, interglacial period), the second formation period of block stream(the last glacial period), and the third adjustment period of block stream(postglacialage). 2) The arrangement types of mountain slope are divided into six types in this research area, which are as follows. Type I; high level convex slope-free face-talus-block stream-alluvial surface Type II: high level convex slope-free face-talus-alluvial surface Type III: free face-talus-block stream-all-uvial surface Type IV: free face-talus-alluval surface Type V: talus-alluval surface Type VI: block stream-alluvial surface Particularly, type IV id\s basic type of all; others are modified ones.