• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.43 no.11 s.213
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• pp.165-183
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• 2005

Total fertility rate in South Korea is the lowest in the world. A fertility rate below replacement fertility level will result in serious social problems in the long term. Therefore, it is worthwhile to study a general understanding about the low fertility rate phenomenon and to investigate the effectiveness of fertility policies in order to ameliorate the resulting social problems due to the low fertility rate. This research was a descriptive examination into the low fertility rate phenomenon and an investigation of the needs for fertility potties and their effectiveness. The study subjects were consisted of 769 unmarried people aged from 18 to 40 years old. Data were collected from June to August 2004 and were analyzed by frequencies, mean, and standard deviation. The following results were revealed. First, unmarried people in general had positive perspectives about getting marriaged, giving birth, and being a parent. In addition, the primary cause of low fertility rate was economical difficulties for raising a child. Third, unmarried people thought that the low fertility rate phenomenon resoled in both positive and negative changes in a society. Fourth, policies for economical supports for raising children, establishing social atmosphere for gender equality, and trustful public educational systems were the political alternatives that people really wanted for having a child in the future. Effective alternatives for policies and strategies to address the low fertility rate problems are suggested in the discussion section.

• Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2004

The fertility rate of Korea has rapidly decreased to the lowest in the World. The fertility rate below replacement fertility level might result in many social problems. First, this study investigated the cause of low fertility rate. Second, the theories of the relationship between fertility rate and women's employment were reviewed. The previous studies suggested that the fertility rate was not always related to women's employment negatively and there was mediating factors between them. Third, the various factors that mediated the negative relationship between fertility rate and women's employment were described in personal, family and social levels. Finally, this study suggested the policies and strategies to solve the low fertility rate problem in Korea.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.335-352
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• 2024

Purpose - Low fertility rate is a serious problem, and this study analyzes factors affecting total fertility rate using panel data from 16 metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea from 2000 to 2022. Design/methodology/approach - Estimating the SAR model considering the weak cross-sectional dependence that exists in variables related to the regional total fertility rate, and using the DKSE estimation method considering the strong cross-sectional dependence. Findings - Estimation results considering weak and strong cross-sectional dependence were similar, confirming the robustness of the results. Female labor force participation rate has a positive effect on total fertility rate, and employment rate has no effect. However, the interaction term is a negative (-) sign. Crude marriage rate has a positive effect on total fertility rate, and apartment price has a slightly positive effect. Environmental factor has no effect, and policy factor has a negative effect. Research implications or Originality - In order for an increase in the female labor force participation rate to lead to an increase in the total fertility rate, qualitative improvements in female employment must be made. Financial investment policies for childbirth must increase their effectiveness. The problem of low fertility rate requires not only population policy but also social, economic, cultural, environmental, and policy conditions to be considered.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.685-701
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• 2015

The low fertility rate and the unprecedented rapid pace of population aging is a significant factor degrading the national competitiveness and the social security system of Korea. The government has implemented various maternity incentives to alleviate the low birth problem; however, the policy seems in effective to solve the problem of low fertility. This study proposes a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate and investigates the policy effects of fertility transition in Korea to provide a basis for more effective policy development. The use of a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate allows for an effective calculation of the change and the effect in total fertility rate than a birth-order specific fertility rate. We compare the effects of the total fertility rate according to various scenarios that enables us to calculate how the total fertility rate can achieve the current multi-child childbirth support policy of the government and estimate how the total fertility rate can be achieved when focusing on the first or second childbirth support policy. We also summarize the research results on policy development for a practical increase in the childbirth that considers the rapid decrease in women of childbearing age (15-49 years) due to continued low fertility and present the number of childbirths in accordance with the total fertility rate.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.229-263
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• 2019

The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.41-52
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to examine how female labor force participation, family policies, and gender equality are related to fertility rate across countries. Multiple measures has been collected from various data sources(such as OECD, UNDP, and WVS) and the panel data set which includes (mostly) OECD countries range from 1990 to 2019 are analyzed. The major findings are as follows. First, based on OECD countries samples, female labor force participation is positively associated with the fertility rate, which implies that women's labor force participation does not lead to a reduction in fertility rate. Second, the length of paternity leave is positively associated with fertility rate whereas the direction is the opposite for the relationship between the length of maternity leave and fertility rate. This is attributed to the possibility that a longer period of maternity leave incurs the a higher opportunity cost of earning income, which leads to a reduced fertility rate. Third, countries with higher gender inequality index tend to have a higher fertility rate. Similarly, countries with higher gender equality value have a lower fertility rate. When the gender equality value is devideed into three sub-categories, education, politics, and employment, the gender equality value in education is the only sub-category which is negatively associated with the fertility rate. This study confirms that female labor force participation may not be a contributing factor in the lowering of fertility rate but instead can be positively associated with the fertility rate. Also, the results show that family policies or gender equality values can be significantly affect fertility rate.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.677-692
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• 2018

The total fertility rate of Korea was 1.05 in 2017, showing a return to the 1.08 level in the year 2005. 1.05 is a very low fertility level that is far from replacement level fertility or safety zone 1.5. The number may indicate a low fertility trap. It is therefore important to predict fertility than at any other time. In the meantime, we have predicted the age-specific fertility rate and total fertility rate by various statistical methods. When the data trend is disconnected or fluctuating, it applied a nonparametric method applying the smoothness and weight. In addition, the Bayesian method of using the pre-distribution of fertility rates in advanced countries with reference to the three-stage transition phenomenon have been applied. This paper examines which method is reasonable in terms of precision and feasibility by applying estimation, forecasting, and comparing the results of the recent variability of the Korean fertility rate with parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. The results of the analysis showed that the total fertility rate was in the order of KOSTAT's total fertility rate, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric method outcomes. Given the level of TFR 1.05 in 2017, the predicted total fertility rate derived from the parametric and nonparametric models is most reasonable. In addition, if a fertility rate data is highly complete and a quality is good, the parametric model approach is superior to other methods in terms of parameter estimation, calculation efficiency and goodness-of-fit.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.15-23
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• 2020

This study aimed to analyze effects of non-regular employment rate and female employment rate on fertility rate in OECD county. We adopted dynamic panel model after classifying OECD county to high and low fertility rate. The results of analysis showed that the higher non regular employment rate, the lower female employment rate, and the lower economy growth rate decrease fertility rate especially in low fertility rate country. While, only the higher house rental decrease in high fertility country. This results indicate that low fertility country including Korea should improve a labor policy such as strengthening employment security and encouraging female employment to increase fertility rate.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.75-98
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• 2021

This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.67-78
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• 1986

With Economic Development Plan, the Korean National Family Plan Program was introduced in early 1960's. The program, which has been a way for constraining population increase, has obtained excellent results. In other word, it has had an important role in controlling the increase in population. The purpose of this study is to analyze the change of fertility rates since 1970 and the lever of completed fertility of Korean women since 1960. There are Age-specific Fertility Rate(ASFR), Total Fertility Rate(TFR), Gross Reproduction Rate(GRR) and Net Reproduction Rate(NRR) etc. in indices of period fertility. It is also possible to be seen the completed fertility rates by using Parity Progression Ratio. The data necessary for this study were obtained from Population & Housing Census Report from the year of 1960 to 1980 and Vital Statistics from 1980 to 1984, which conducted by Economic Planning Board, Republic of Korea. The summarized results of this study were as follows : 1. Age-specific Fertility Fertility Rate(ASFR) has been continuously decreasing till now. The ASFR for the women aged 25 to 29 was higher than those of any other groups and the ASFR for the women aged 20 to 24 was higher than that of the women aged 30 to 34 since the mid 1970's. 2. There are Total Fertility Rate(TFR), Gross Reproduction Rate(GRR) and Ney Reproduction Rate(NRR) etc. in reproduction rates. First of all, TFR and GRR have been declining except late of 1970's and TFR showed 2.23 per ever-married women, GRR was 1.05 in 1982. Next, the change of NRR could not be found without life table by year and only NRR for the time of census was to be found. In 1980, NRR showed 1.27 per ever-married women and the level was still out of reach at replacement level of population. 3. Specific Fertility Rate by Birth Order(SFRBO) showed to be declined continually since 1972. Especially the SFRBO of the third live birth was decreased from about 22 per 1,000 ever-married women in 1972 to 12 or so in 1982. 4. To know the level of completed fertility, the mean number of completed live births per ever-married women was calculated from 1960 to 1980. The number of completed live births was more than 5 per ever-married women by the year of 1975 but have been declining and resulted in 4.69 in 1980.