• Wind and Structures
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.25-42
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• 1998

Improvements to the Gumbel method of extreme value analysis of wind data made over the last two decades are reviewed and illustrated using sample data for Jersey. A new procedure for extending the Gumbel method to include M-th highest annual extremes is shown to be less effective than the standard method, but leads to a method for calibrating peak-over-threshold methods against the standard Gumbel approach. Peak-over-threshold methods that include at least the 3rd highest annual extremes, specifically the modified Jensen and Franck method and the "Method of independent storms" are shown to give the best estimates of extremes from observations.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제10권1_2호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2002

In this paper an important stability property of the extremes under power normalizations is discussed. It is proved that the restricted convergence of the Power normalized extremes on an arbitrary nondegenerate interval implies the weak convergence. Moreover, this implication, in an important practical situation, is obtained when the sample size is considered as a random variable distributed geometrically with mean n.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제18권1_2호
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• pp.247-259
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• 2005

Necessary and sufficient conditions, under which there exists (at least) a sequence of vectors of real numbers for which the distribution function (d.f.) of any vector of extreme order statistics converges to a non-degenerate limit, are derived. The interesting thing is that these conditions solely depend on the univariate marginals. Moreover, the limit splits into the product of the limit univariate marginals if all the bivariate marginals of the trivariate d.f., from which the sample is drawn, is of negative quadrant dependent random variables (r.v.'s). Finally, all these results are stated for the multivariate extremes with arbitrary dimensions.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.59-74
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• 1997

FACES II & III do not capture the high extremes of the dimension and are linear rather than curvilinear measure. FACES IV is the latest revision of FACES series and can capture two extreme dimension of Circumplex Model. The purpose of this study is to examine reliability and validity of reconstructed FACES using by FACES II, III, IV. Factor analysis showed that Cohesion and Adaptability consisted 3 factors (disengaged, connected, emmeshed/rigid, flexble, chaotic) Extremes on each dimension conceptually were opposite and they were uncorrelated with each other. FACES effectively predicted family function. Reliability coefficients of subscales ranged from 61~85 Reconstructed FACES had good internal consistency and construct and criterion related validity.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.205-219
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• 1997

FACES II & III did not capture high extremes of Cohesion and Adaptability dimension, and were linear rather than curvilinear measure. The purpose of this study was to examine reliability and validity of revised FACES using by FACES II,III,IV. Factor analysis showed that Cohesion and Adaptability dimension consisted each 3 factors(disengaged, connected, enmeshed / rigid, flexible, chaotic). Extremes on each dimension conceptually were opposite and they were uncorrelated with each other. Revised FACES effectively predicted family function. Reliability coefficients of subscales ranged form .68~.82. Revised FACES had good internal consistency, and construct and criterion related validity.

• 대한수학회보
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• 제49권3호
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• pp.495-510
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• 2012

Let $X_1$, $X_2$,${\ldots}$, $X_n$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with common distribution function $F$. Convergence rates for the moments of extremes are studied by virtue of second order regularly conditions. A unified treatment is also considered under second order von Mises conditions. Some examples are given to illustrate the results.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.177-177
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• 2023

The impacts of dams on transboundary flow are complex and challenging to project and manage, given the potential moderating influence of a broad range of anthropogenic and natural factors. This study presents a global meta-analysis of 168 studies that examines the effect magnitude of dams on downstream seasonal, annual flow, and hydrological extremes risk on 39 hotspot transboundary river basins. The study also evaluates the impact of 13 factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, dams' design and types, level of transboundary cooperation, and socioeconomic indicators, on the heterogeneity of outcomes. The findings reveal that moderators significantly influence the impact of dams on downstream flow, leading to considerable heterogeneity in outcomes. Transboundary cooperation emerges as the key factor that determines the severity of dams' effect on both dry and wet season's flows at a significance level of 0.01 to 0.05, respectively. Specifically, the presence of water-supply and irrigation dams has a significant (0.01) moderating effect on dry-season flow across basins with high transboundary cooperation. In contrast, for wet-season flow, the basin's vulnerability to climate extremes is associated with a large negative effect size. The various moderators have varying degrees of influence on the heterogeneity of outcomes, with the aridity index, population density, GDP, and risk level of hydro-political tension being the most significant factors for dry-season flow, and the risk level of hydro-political tension and basin vulnerability to climate extremes being the most significant for wet-season flow. The results suggest that transboundary cooperation is crucial for managing the impacts of dams on downstream flow, and that various other factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, and socioeconomic indicators, have significant moderating effects on the outcomes. Thus, context-specific approaches are necessary when predicting and managing the impacts of dams on transboundary flow.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.163-163
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• 2023

Flooding has become an increasing event which is one of the major natural disasters responsible for direct economic damage in South Korea. Driven by climate change, precipitation extremes play significant role on the flood damage and its further increase is expected to exacerbate the socioeconomic impact in the country. However, the empirical evidence associating changes in precipitation extremes to the historical flood damage is limited. Thus, there is a need to assess the causal relationship between changes in precipitation extremes and flood damage, especially in agricultural region like Chungcheong region in South Korea. The spatial and temporal changes of precipitation extremes from 10 synoptic stations based on daily precipitation data were analyzed using the ClimPACT2 tool and Mann-Kendall test. The four precipitation extreme indices consisting of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of very heavy precipitation wet days (R30 mm), maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day), and simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), which represent changes in intensity, frequency, and duration, respectively, and the time series data on flooded area and flood damage from 1985 to 2020 were used to investigate the causal relationship in the ARDL-ECM framework and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The trend results showed that majority of the precipitation indices indicated positive trends, however, CWD showed no significant changes. ARDL-ECM framework showed that there was a long-run relationship among the variables. Further analysis on the empirical results showed that flooded area and Rx1day have significant positive impacts on the flood damage in both short and long-runs while R30 mm only indicated significant positive impact in the short-run, both in the current period, which implies that an increase in flooded area, Rx1day, and R30 mm will cause an increase in the flood damage. The pairwise Granger analysis showed unidirectional causality from the flooded area, R30 mm, Rx1day, and SDII to flood damage. Thus, these precipitation indices could be useful as indicators of pluvial flood damage in Chungcheong region of South Korea.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2014년도 추계 학술발표논문집
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• pp.1-24
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• 2014

2012년 상반기 미국의 옥수수 생산량은 재배면적의 증가 등으로 20% 이상 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 하지만 2012년 봄 미국의 폭염과 가뭄이 발생하였고, 그 현상이 지속될 것으로 예측되면서 많은 경제학자들, 국제곡물수급 관련 전문가들은 미국의 옥수수 생산량이 감소할 것으로 예측했다. 실제로, 2013년 미국 농무부 (USDA)의 작물생산 총 보고서에서 2012년 미국 폭염과 가뭄으로 미국의 2012년 옥수수 생산량은 2011년에 비해 20% 감소했다고 발표했다. 많은 연구에서 곡물 생산량을 예측하지만 기상이변과 함께 작물의 생물학적 반응뿐 아니라 경제모형이 결합된 연구는 많지 않다. 본 연구에서는 기상이변과 작물모형, 경제모형을 결기상합하여 미국의 최대 옥수수 생산지역의 옥수수 생산량을 예측하고 생산량의 변화가 개발도상국의 식량안보에 어떤 영향을 줄 것인가를 예측하였다. 기상이변 시나리오를 재현하기 위해 미국 NOAA의 NCDC에서 미국의 폭염 발생 연도의 정보를 획득하고 해당 연도에 대하여 미국 전역의 기상관측소에서 6월부터 8월까지의 월별 일 기상자료 (최고 및 최저기온, 강수량)를 수집하였으며 기준연도 (1950-2000)에 산술평균 방법으로 폭염/가뭄 정보를 적용했다. 미래 시나리오 (2050)는 CGIAR의 CCAFS에서 $CO_2$ emission scenario에 따라 A1B와 B1, 전지구 모형에 따라 CSIRO-MK 3와 MIROC 3.2를 다운로드하였으며, 해상도는 5 arc-minutes (적도에서 10km)이다. 작물모형 (CERES-Maize)으로부터 출력된 옥수수의 생물리학적 결과는 경제모형의 단위 (FPU)로 다시 정리되어 사회경제, 정책과 농업생산을 예측하기 위해 글로벌 경제모형 (IMPACT2)에 입력되었다. 작물모형에서 기준연도에 비해 미국 폭염과 가뭄에 의한 옥수수 생산량은 29% 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 미래 시나리오 B1의 CSIRO-MK 3과 MIROC 3.2에서는 36% 감소할 것으로 예측되었으며, A1B의 CSIRO-MK 3에서는 38%, MIROC 3.2에서는 58% 감소할 것으로 나타났다. 미국의 기상이변으로 인한 옥수수 생산량의 감소는 전세계 옥수수 시장에 부정적 영향을 끼칠 것으로 예상되면서 세계 옥수수 소비의 감소로 이어질 것으로 예측되었다. 사하라 사막 이남 아프리카 (SSA)의 나라들에서 가장 많은 기아인구가 발생하고 그 외 남아시아와 라틴 아메리카, Caribbean 지역의 나라들에서 기아와 함께 식량 불안이 증가할 것으로 나타났다. 옥수수를 매일 섭취하는 사람들은 옥수수 생산량 감소에서 비롯된 옥수수 소비 감소에 즉각적으로 반응하지 못함으로써 영양불균형에 처하는 등 식량수급의 불안정은 이러한 개발도상국 지역에서 계속 악화될 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국수학사학회지
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.1-20
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• 2021

Logic and intuition are considered as the opposite extremes of teaching geometry, and any teaching method of geometry is to be placed between these extremes. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of logical and intuitive approaches for teaching geometry and to derive didactical implications by taking Euclid's Elements and Clairaut's Elements respectively representing the extremes. To this end, comparing the composition and contents of each book, we analyze which propositions Clairaut chose from Euclid's Elements, how their approaches differ in definitions, proofs, and geometrical constructions, and what unique approaches Clairaut took. The results reveal that Clairaut mainly chose propositions from Euclid's books 1, 3, 6, 11, and 12 to provide the contexts that show why such ideas were needed, rather than the sudden appearance of abstract and formal propositions, and omitted or modified the process of justification according to learners' levels. These propose a variety of intuitive strategies in line with trends of teaching geometry towards emphasis on conceptual understanding and different levels of justification. Specifically, such as the general principle of similarity and the infinite geometric approach shown in Clairaut's Elements, we could confirm that intuition-based geometry does not necessarily aim for tasks with low cognitive demand, but must be taught in a way that learners can understand.