• 제목/요약/키워드: extreme value distribution

검색결과 259건 처리시간 0.031초

Statistical Properties of Geomagnetic Activity Indices and Solar Wind Parameters

  • Kim, Jung-Hee;Chang, Heon-Young
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2014
  • As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth's magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2) When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3) The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4) The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5) The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and $BV^2$ compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and $BV^2$ are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.

L-모멘트 및 LH-모멘트 기법에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도( I ) - L-모멘트법을 중심으로 - (Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by L-Moments and LB-Moments ( I ) - On the method of L-Moments -)

  • 이순혁;박명근;맹승진;정연수;김동주;류경식
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong, Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data used in this study was established by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity, detection of Outliers. L-coefficient of variation, L-skewness and L-kurtosis were calculated by L-moment ratio respectively. Parameters were estimated by the Methods of Moments and L-Moments. Design floods obtained by Methods of Moments and L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions in GEV distribution were compared by the Relative Mean Errors(RME) and Relative Absolute Errors(RAE). The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data was acknowledged by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity and detection of Outliers. 2. GEV distribution used in this study was found to be more suitable one than Pearson type 3 distribution by the goodness of fit test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and L-Moment ratios diagram in the applied watersheds. 3. Parameters for GEV distribution were estimated using Methods of Moments and L-Moments. 4. Design floods were calculated by Methods of Moments and L-Moments in GEV distribution. 5. It was found that design floods derived by the method of L-Moments using Weibull plotting position formula in GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by method of moments using different formulas for plotting positions from the viewpoint of Relative Mean Errors and Relative Absolute Errors.

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GEV 분포와 역사 자료 이용 알고리즘 EMA의 접목 (Incorporation of Historical Data into GEV Distribution with EMA)

  • 성장현;김영오
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.209-213
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    • 2008
  • 재현기간이 수백년 이상인 이상홍수의 초과확률을 추정하기 위해서는 재현기간 이상의 홍수자료를 이용해 내삽(interpolation)을 해야 하지만 현재 우리나라의 체계적(systematic) 관측자료 기간은 이에 훨씬 미치지 못한다. 따라서, 역사 자료(historical data)를 이용해 자료 길이를 확장하는 방법, 홍수자료에 비해 비교적긴 강우자료와 유출 모형에 의한 합성자료를 이용하는 방법 등이 사용되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 역사 자료와 체계적 관측자료를 효율적으로 결합할 수 있는 EMA(Expected Moment Algorithm) 기법을 연구하였다. EMA는 Cohn 등(1997)에 의해 제안된 방법으로 미국의 공식 분포인 LP3(Log-Pearson type 3) 분포를 대상으로 반복 계산을 통해 매개변수를 추정하는 기법으로서 본 연구에서는 LP3 분포 대신에 최근 국내 홍수빈도해석 시 많이 쓰이고 있는 GEV(Generalized Extreme Value) 분포를 대상으로 EMA 절차를 이론적으로 유도하였다.

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단부 횡보강이 없는 세장한 전단벽의 내진성능 (Eartqyake-Resistance of SlenderShear Wall With no Boundary Confinement)

  • 박홍근;강수민;조봉호;홍성걸
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2000년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.375-380
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    • 2000
  • Experimental and numerical studies were done to investigate seismic performance of slender sheat wall with no boundary confinement. 1/3 scale-specimens that model the plastic region of long slender shear walls subjected to combined axial load and bending moment were rested to investigate strength, ductility, capacity of energy dissipation and strain distribution. The experimental results show that the slender walls fail due to early crushing in the compressive boundary, and then have very low ductility. The measured maximum compressive strain is 0.0021, which is much less then 0.004 being commonly used for estimation of ductility. The experimental results indicates that the maximum compressive strain is not a fixed value but is affected by moment gradient along the shear wall height and distance from neutral axis to the extreme compressive fiber.

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단부 횡보강이 없는 세장한 전단벽의 내진성능 (Earthquake-Resistance of Slender Shear Wall with No Boundary Confinement)

  • 박홍근;강수민;조봉호;홍성걸
    • 콘크리트학회논문집
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2000
  • Experimental and numerical studies were done to investigate seismic performance of slender shear walls with no boundary confinement that are principal structural members of high0rise bearing wall buildings. 1/3 scale specimens that model the plastic region of long slender shear walls subjected to combined axial load and bending moment were tested to investigate strength, ductility, capacity of energy dissipation, and strain distribution, The experimental results show that the slender shear walls fail due to early crushing in the compressive boundary, and then have very low ductility. The measured maximum compressive strain is 0.0021, much less than 0.004 being commonly used for estimation of ductility. This result indicates that the maximum compressive strain is not a fixed value but is affected by moment gradient along the shear wall height and distance from the neutral axis to the extreme compressive fiber.

철근보강 폴리마 콘크리트보의 변형특성 (Deformation Characteristics of Reinforced Polymer Concrete Beams)

  • 연규석
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 1988
  • The primary objective of the study was to find the deformation characteristics of reinforced polymer concrete beams. A test program was carried out to compare the behavior in deformation of polyester and MMA concrete beams with cement concrete beams but with varying ratios of tensile reinforcement. From the results the following conclusions can be made. 1.The various strengths of polymer concrete ware very high compared to the strengths for cement concrete. Also, compared to conventional concrete beams, flexural strength of reinforced polymer concrete beams was distinctly higher for the same section and steel ratios. 2.The polymer concrete beams exhibit large deflections accompanied by relatively high strengths as compared to cement concrete beams. 3.The average ultimate strain at the extreme compression fiber of polymer concrete beams was 0.01 1 cm / cm, and this value was about three to four times as large as that of cement concrete beams, 4.The polymer concrete beams developed more cracks which were more wide crack distribution spacing than the cement concrete beams, and the beams failed in a more ductile manner. 5.The reinforcing steel ratio has a significant effect on the beam strength, load-deflection response, stress-strain curve, and crack pattern of polymer concrete beams.

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여러 차수의 확률 가중 모멘트를 이용한 적정 분포함수의 매개변수 추정 (Using Various Order Probability Weighted Moments for the Parameter Estimation of Appropriate Distribution Functions)

  • 이길성;김지영
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.635-639
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    • 2004
  • 댐과 같은 구조물의 설계시 큰 강우량에 내한 분포함수의 적합성을 놀일 필요가 있다. 이에 대해 Wang (1997a and b)은 큰 설계량에 내한 적합성을 놀이기 위해 LH 모멘트와 고차 PWM(higher Probability Weighted Moments)방법을 제안하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 자 지역별로 대표적인 4개 지점의 일 강우량 자료를 사용하여 제안된 고차 PWM 방법의 적용성을 살펴보았다. 그 과정으로 가장 낮은 차수인 일반적인 PWM 방법과 더 높은 차수의 PWM 방법을 이용하여, GEV(Generalized Extreme Value) 분포와 Gumbel 분포에 대한 매개변수를 추정한 후 이 추정치를 확률지에 실측치와 함께 도시하여 결과를 비교하였다. 그리고 PPCC(Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient) 적합도 검정결과를 통해 추정된 매개변수의 적합성을 확인하였다.

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확률강우량을 이용한 AMC 조건에 따른 비점원 오염량의 변화 (Variation of Non-Point Source Pollution according to AMC Condition Using Probable Rainfall)

  • 안승섭
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제42권3호
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    • pp.76-88
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    • 2000
  • AGNPS model is applied in this study to analyze the changes of non-point source pollutant according to AMC condition using probable rainfall. Probable rainfall of H-dam area by Gumber's extreme value distribution is computed through frequency analysis for each return period. 35 coarse grids are subdivided into 134 find grids of finite differential network to analyze peak flow soil loss quantity and nutrients of study area and the modified CN estimation equation shows good result about rainfall events-peak flow relationship. And as the consequence of estimation of soil loss quantity for each rainfall event soil loss quantity shows 120%-170% of actual soil loss quantity Regression analysis for the observed and calculated values of flow T-P AMC has an important effect on nutrients concentration of outflow and it if found that the excessive fertilization under AMC III condition may cause eutrophication by nutrients because the range of increase of outflow concentration appears relatively high.

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신뢰성 확률지의 전산화에 관한 연구 (Ⅵ) (Studies on the Computerization of Reliability Paper (Ⅵ))

  • 정수일
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제22권50호
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 1999
  • This paper summerizes the former 5 papers that studied computer programming for the estimation of the Weibull, Extreme value, Hazard, Normal and Log-normal parameters which have a close relation with the reliability of the various kinds of industrial products. Probability paper is very commonly used in estimating the parameters, however, it is very hard to neglect the errors in plotting the data, and especially in drawing the regression line. The main purpose of this paper is to reduce these errors and to help the engineers to use the parameters in improving the reliability of their prod- ucts. The following parts are included in the computer programming with the em- phases on significant digits and rounding of numerical values : $\bullet$ data input part for various cases $\bullet$ parameter estimation part $\bullet$ printing part for input data $\bullet$ printing part for the results $\bullet$ printing part for the graphic(probability paper). And the running results(monitor displays) of the program for a fictitious example of Weibull distribution is given for the interested ones.

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국내 풍하중의 확률적 특성 분석 (Probabilistic Analysis of Wind Loads)

  • 김상효;배규웅;박홍석
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 1990년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 1990
  • The probabilistic characteristics of wind loads have been analyzed using statistical data on wind speeds, pressure coefficient, exposure coefficient, and gust factor. The wind speed data collected in 25 nationwide weather stations have been modified to be consistent in measuring height, exposure condition as well as averaging time, Having performed Monte Carlo simulation for various heights and site conditions, the statistical models of wind loads were determined, in which Type-I extreme value distribution has been applied. The models also incorporate a reduction factor of 0.85 to account for the reduced probability that the maximum wind speed will occur in a direction most unfavorable to the response of structure.

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