• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.170-170
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• 2018

In some case studies, the heavy precipitation events and rapid cyclogenesis in the extratropics can be caused by moist and warm tropical air masses. Tropical Moisture Exports (TME) correspond to the meridional transport of moist air masses, primarily born in tropical oceanic areas, to higher latitudes; and are closely related to flood events, especially in the mid-latitudes. The TME for the region of interest is mostly estimated by the back tracking approach using Lagrangian Analysis Tools (LAGRANTO) from ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) data. In this study, we aim to estimate the TME that are related to rainfall in Korea. The major moisture sources of the TME that contribute to heavy rainfall and extreme floods in Korea are identified. The TME is found to have significant connection with extreme events in Korea such as heavy rainfall and extreme flood events. The results show the most of the moisture sources comes from the west Pacific during the warm half of the year and it contributes significantly to the annual TME and is linked to the East Asian monsoon.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.137-149
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• 2015

Flood planning needs to recognize trends for extreme precipitation events. Especially, the r-year return level is a common measure for extreme events. In this paper, we present a nonstationary temporal model for precipitation return levels using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling. For intensity, we model annual maximum daily precipitation measured in Korea with a generalized extreme value (GEV). The temporal dependence among the return levels is incorporated to the model for GEV model parameters and a linear model with autoregressive error terms. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data collected from various stations in Korea from 1973 to 2011.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.505-520
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• 2011

This study is aimed to examine the change on extreme precipitation events in South Korea. The country is divided into six basins, and seven extreme precipitation indices-related to heavy rainfall are analyzed at sixty weather stations. The increasing trend in amount of heavy rainfall is more stable than that in days of heavy rainfall. The increasing trend is the most stable when days of rainfall are more than 50 mm, or rainfall is over the 95th percentile. The precipitation indices-related to heavy rainfall was mostly increasing during analysis period. Especially, basins of the Han river, the upper Nakdong river, and the Eastern coast show significantly increasing trends compared to the other basins. However, the increasing trends of the Geum river and the Seomjin river are not statistically significant. Heavy rainfall events had stably increased in the Han and the Nakdong rivers since the mid-1970s. However, the number of stably increasing regions has decreased since the mid-2000s. It means that the frequency and intensity of the recent heavy rainfall become more irregular.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.39 no.5 s.104
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• pp.711-721
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• 2004

The aim of this study is to clarify whether frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events have changed significantly in Korea during recent years. Using the best available daily data, spatial and temporal aspects of ten climate change indicators are investigated on an annual and seasonal basis for the periods of 1954-1999. A systematic increase in the $90^{th}$ percentile of daily minimum temperatures at most of the analyzed areas has been observed. This increase is accompanied by a similar reduction in the number of frost days and a significant lengthening of the thermal growing season. Although the intra-annual extreme temperature range is based on only two observations, it provides a very robust and significant measure of declining extreme temperature variability. The five precipitation-related indicators show no distinct changing patterns for spatial and temporal distribution except for the regional series of maximum consecutive dry days. Interestingly, the regional series of consecutive dry days have increased significantly while the daily rainfall intensity index and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the $95^{th}$ percentile for 1901-1990 normals have insignificantly increased.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.15-15
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• 2016

In South Korea, annual maximum precipitation often occurs in association with mature typhoons in the western Pacific and from summer monsoon rains. In addition, certain years have no significant typhoon activity. Therefore, the characteristics of frequency distributions differ between extreme typhoons and monsoon events. Those extremes are also influenced from climate conditions in a different way. Application of nonstationary frequency analysis to the AMP data combined with typhoon and monsoon events might not always be reasonable. Therefore, we propose a novel approach of nonstationary frequency analysis to integrate extreme events of AMP induced from two main sources such as typhoons and monsoon in the current study. In this way, we were able to model the nonstationarity of extreme events from tropical storms and monsoon separately.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.497-500
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• 2008

The typhoon is provoking huge damage attacking in Korea periodically every year. Therefore, in this study, the analysis of 24 hourly maximum precipitation change related to typhoon events achieved based on Mann-Whitney U test, T test, Modified T test, Sign test, F test, and Modified F test. At the results, the 24 hourly maximum precipitation was expose that average and standard deviation are increasing recently. Therefore, hydorlogical structures have to be prepared of extreme rainfall events by typhoons.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.23-40
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• 2016

In this study, long-term changes in means and extreme events of precipitation during summer rainy period called Changma (late June~early September) are examined based on rainfall data observed by Chukwooki during Joseon Dynasty (1777~1907) and by modern rain-gauge onward (1908~2015) in Seoul, Korea. Also, characterizations of the relevant changes in synoptic climate fields in East Asia are made by the examination of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis I data. Analyses of 239-year time series of precipitation data demonstrate that the total precipitation as well as their inter-annual variability during the entire Changma period (late June~early September) has increased in the late 20th century and onward. Notably, since the early 1990s the means and extreme events during the summer Changma period (late June~mid-July) and Changma break period (late July~early August) has significantly increased, resulting in less clear demarcations of sub-Changma periods. In this regard, comparisons of synoptic climate fields before and after the early 1990s reveal that in recent decades the subtropical high pressure has expanded in the warmer Pacific as the advection of high-latitude air masses toward East Asia was enhanced due to more active northerly wind vector around the high pressure departure core over Mongolia. Consequently, it is suggested that the enhancement of rising motions due to more active confluence of the two different air masses along the northwestern borders of the Pacific might lead to the increases of the means and extreme events of Changma precipitation in Seoul in recent decades.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.379-394
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• 2008

Recently, extreme precipitation events beyond design capacity of hydraulic system have been occurred and this is the causes of failure of hydraulic structure for flood prevention and of severe flood damage. Therefore it is very important to understand temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events as well as expected changes in extreme precipitation events and distributional characteristics during design period under future climate change. In this paper, climate change scenarios were used to assess the impacts of future climate change on extreme precipitation. Furthermore, analysis of future extreme precipitation characteristics and I-D-F analysis were carried out. This study used SRES B2 greenhouse gas scenario and YONU CGCM to simulate climatic conditions from 2031 to 2050 and statistical downscaling method was applied to establish weather data from each of observation sites operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Then quantile mapping of bias correction methods was carried out by comparing the simulated data with observations for bias correction. In addition Modified Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse(MBLRP) model (Onof and Wheater, 1993; Onof 2000) and adjust method were applied to transform daily precipitation time series data into hourly time series data. Finally, rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency were calculated to draw I-D-F curve. Although there are 66 observation sites in Korea, we consider here the results from only Seoul, Daegu, Jeonju, and Gwangju sites in this paper. From the results we found that the rainfall intensity will be increased and the bigger intensity will be occurred for longer rainfall duration when we compare the climate conditions of 2030s with present conditions.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.83-107
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• 2014

This study presents spatial characteristics of cloud using satellite image in the extreme heavy snowfall of the Yeongdong region. 3 extreme heavy snowfall events in the Yeongdong region during the recent 12 years (2001 ~ 2012) are selected for which the fresh snow cover exceed 50 cm/day. Spatial characteristics (minimum brightness temperature; Tmin, cloud size, center of cloud-cell) of cloud are analyzed by tracking main cloud-cell related with these events. These characteristics are compared with radar precipitation in the Yeongdong region to investigate relationship between cloud and precipitation. The results are summarized as follows, selected extreme heavy snowfall events are associated with the isolated, well-developed, and small-scale convective cloud which is developing over the Yeongdong region or moving from over East Korea Bay to the Yeongdong region. During the period of main precipitation, cloud-cell Tmin is low ($-40{\sim}-50^{\circ}C$) and cloud area is small (17,000 ~ 40,000 $km^2$). Precipitation area (${\geq}$ 0.5 mm/hr) from radar also shows small and isolated shape (4,000 ~ 8,000 $km^2$). The locations of the cloud and precipitation are similar, but in there centers are located closely to the coast of the Yeongdong region. In all events the extreme heavy snowfall occur in the period a developed cloud-cell was moving into the coastal waters of the Yeongdong. However, it was found that developing stage of cloud and precipitation are not well matched each other in one of 3 events. Water vapor image shows that cloud-cell is developed on the northern edge of the dry(dark) region. Therefore, at the result analyzed from cloud and precipitation, selected extreme heavy snowfall events are associated with small-scale secondary cyclone or vortex, not explosive polar low. Detection and tracking small-scale cloud-cell in the real-time forecasting of the Yeongdong extreme heavy snowfall is important.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.391-401
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• 2019

This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0℃ future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0℃ hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0℃ warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0℃ warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5℃ additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃, 0.5℃ additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5℃ can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.