• Title/Summary/Keyword: exponential regression

Search Result 213, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

A Study on the Prediction of Surface Settlement Applying Umbrella Arch Method to Tunnelling (Umbrella arch 공법의 적용에 따른 횡방향 지표침하량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 김선홍;문현구
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.259-267
    • /
    • 2002
  • Recently, Umbrella Arch Method(UAM) is commonly used in order to enhance the stability of tunnel itself and stabilize the adjacent surface structure. But quantitative estimation of reinforcement effect is needed because UAM is designed and constructed only on the basis of empirical experience. By using 3-dimensional finite element method, parametric study is performed for elastic modulus of ground and overburden, and reinforcement effect is analyzed quantitatively. From the results, surface settlement decreases about 9%∼27% in soil tunnel, about 4%∼24% in weathered rock tunnel and 4%∼17% in soft rock tunnel when applied with UAM. The prediction equation for final surface settlement is suggested through regression analysis and the equation is expressed as exponential function which has variable Smax, unknown coefficient i and k.

Prediction of Rear-end Crash Potential using Vehicle Trajectory Data (차량 주행궤적을 이용한 후미추돌 가능성 예측 모형)

  • Kim, Tae-Jin;O, Cheol;Gang, Gyeong-Pyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.73-82
    • /
    • 2011
  • Recent advancement in traffic surveillance systems has allowed the researchers to obtain more detailed vehicular movement such as individual vehicle trajectory data. Understanding the characteristics of interactions between leading and following vehicles in the traffic flow stream is a backbone for designing and evaluating more sophisticated traffic and vehicle control strategies. This study proposes a methodology for estimating rear-end crash potential, as a probabilistic measure, in real-time based on the analysis of vehicular movements. The methodology presented in this study consists of three components. The first predicts vehicle position and speed every second using a Kalman filtering technique. The second estimates the probability for the vehicle's trajectory to belong to either 'changing lane' or 'going straight'. A binary logistic regression (BLR) is used to model the lane-changing decision of the subject vehicle. The other component calculates crash probability by employing an exponential decay function that uses time-to-collision (TTC) between the subject vehicle and the front vehicle. The result of this study is expected to be adapted in developing traffic control and information systems, in particular, for crash prevention.

Relationship between Hourly Clearness Index and Diffuse Ratio at Cheongju Area(II) (청주지방(淸州地方)의 시청명지수(時淸明指數)와 산란비(散亂比)와의 관계(關係)(II))

  • Lee, H.J.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.46-50
    • /
    • 1988
  • The estimation of beam radiation intensity on a tilted surface is very important to the design of a solar energy system. In order to get the beam radiation intensity, it is required to calculate the ratio of the diffuse solar radiation to the global radiation ($k_d$). The data measured at Chung-Buk National University. Cheong-ju, (from May 16, 1985 to Nov, 10, 1987) were analysed to define the relationship between hourly clearness index ($k_t$) and diffuse ratio ($t_d$). The results are is follow: 1. The percent of clearness index($k_t$) of less than 0.3 and of more than 0.8 were 2.7% and 3.1% respectively, and between 0.5 and 0.8 was 76.5%. 2. The regression equation between $k_t$ and $k_d$ was an exponential function as: $$k_d=\[{1\hspace{120}:\hspace{10}(k_t<0.1)\\1.28{\times}0.074^{k_t}\hspace{30}:\hspace{10}(0.1{\leq}=k_t<0.9)\\0.12\hspace{98}:\hspace{10}(0.9{\leq}=k_t)$$ There was a little difference between the result. of this study based on the data of 30 months and the results of previous study (ITRA 2(1):42-47, 1986.) based on the data of 8 months. 3. The hourly exponential regression equation between $k_t$ and $k_d$ was $k_d=A{\times}8^{k_t}$ and the values of constant A and coefficient B of the: equations are as the following table; 4. The percent of $k_d$ of less than 0.4 was 72.9% and of more than 0.7 was 6.6%. 5. Total mean value of $k_t$ and $k_d$ wert 0.56 and 0.32, respectively. From 10:00 to 15:00 o'clock the total mean value of $k_t$ was smaller that the hourly man value of $k_t$ and the one or $k_d$ larger.

  • PDF

Application of Time-Series Model to Forecast Track Irregularity Progress (궤도틀림 진전 예측을 위한 시계열 모델 적용)

  • Jeong, Min Chul;Kim, Gun Woo;Kim, Jung Hoon;Kang, Yun Suk;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.331-338
    • /
    • 2012
  • Irregularity data inspected by EM-120, an railway inspection system in Korea includes unavoidable incomplete and erratic information, so it is encountered lots of problem to analyse those data without appropriate pre-data-refining processes. In this research, for the efficient management and maintenance of railway system, characteristics and problems of the detected track irregularity data have been analyzed and efficient processing techniques were developed to solve the problems. The correlation between track irregularity and seasonal changes was conducted based on ARIMA model analysis. Finally, time series analysis was carried out by various forecasting model, such as regression, exponential smoothing and ARIMA model, to determine the appropriate optimal models for forecasting track irregularity progress.

A Study on the Method of Freight Generation Estimation according to Company Size in Seoul Metropolitan Area (수도권의 사업체 규모에 따른 화물발생 예측 방법론 연구)

  • Park Sang-Chul;Choi Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.29 no.5 s.101
    • /
    • pp.431-437
    • /
    • 2005
  • In korea, Freight generation models developed in korea were estimated by spatial unit method which predict freight flow by traffic zone. But it is difficult to predict freight generation using these models, because there are the difference of the totality method of sampling data on freight volume and the variability of the variables by these models on each case study, This study developed new estimation model to predict freight flow which is generated from each company using the characteristics of each company such as the freight outbound & inbound volume, the number of employee, sales, gross area, land area. This model is simpler than the that of spatial unit and can apply to the other region. The subjects of study were companies in metropolitan area and types of model were exponential regression models. The adequate explanatory variable in the models were sales. this study have a uniqueness apply micro research method to estimate freight generation not use spatial unit method but use flow unit method by each company unit.

Analysis on the Physical Properties of Gwangyang Marine Clay (광양지역 해성점토의 물리적 특성 분석)

  • Heo, Yol;Kwan, Seonwok;Gang, Seokberm;Park, Seonghoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
    • /
    • v.11 no.12
    • /
    • pp.63-74
    • /
    • 2010
  • Normally consolidated and slightly overconsolidated soft clay layer is widely distributed in the south coast of Korea. To ensure the efficient and economical construction design of any structure to be built on this soft soil, exhaustive studies related to geotechnical and physical engineering properties are required. In this study, the relationship of the physical properties of southern Gwangyang marine clay in the Korea Peninsula were examined, including natural water content, specific gravity, total unit weight, initial void ratio, liquid limit, plastic limit, and physical properties of activity and soil parameters. For the parameter relationship analysis, the latest relatively reliable data on the large harbor construction work were used, optimum values were deducted with linear regression and non-linear regression between soil parameters, water content or initial void ratio appears to be very large. Moreover, in the linear and involution pattern regression, equal coefficient of determination appeared. The relationship of the different parameters was shown to be excellent in the non-linear regression of involution equation and exponential equation pattern compared with the findings of linear regression analysis.

Analysis on the Relationship of Soil Parameters of Marine Clay (해성점토의 토질정수 상관성 분석)

  • Heo, Yol;Yun, Seokhyun;Jung, Keunchae;Oh, Seungtak
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.37-45
    • /
    • 2008
  • Normally consolidated and slightly overconsolidated soft clay layer is widely distributed in the south coast of Korea. To ensure the efficient and economical construction design of any structure to be built on this soft soil, exhaustive studies are required related to geotechnical engineering properties. In this study, the relationship of the physical properties of southern marine clay in the Korea Peninsula were examined, including natural water content, specific gravity, total unit weight, initial void ratio, liquid limit, plastic limit, and physical properties of activity and soil parameters. For the parameter relationship analysis, the latest relatively reliable data on the large harbor construction work were used, optimum values were deducted with linear regression and non-linear regression between soil parameters, water content or initial void ratio appears to be very large. Moreover, in the linear and involution pattern regression, equal coefficient of determination appeared. The relationship of the different parameters was shown to be excellent in the non-linear regression of involution equation and exponential equation pattern compared with the findings of linear regression analysis.

  • PDF

A Numerical Analysis Study for the Prediction of Convergences and Characteristics of Subsidence behavior in Shallow, Wide Tunnel Excavation (천층 광폭터널의 내공변위 및 침하거동특성 예측을 위한 수치해석적 연구)

  • 문승백;송승곤;양형식;전양수;한공창
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.20-29
    • /
    • 2001
  • Final convergence of tunnel crown due to excavation have been well predicted by regression analysis which is expressed as a function of convergence curve on a time and distance dependent. In this study, the validity of the equations for shallow, wide tunnel was investigated by measurement and numerical analysis. Studied tunnel(Sansoo Tunnel) is located at the boundary of downtown and mountain park. Exponential predictions equation was better coincided with measured data than fractional equation for studied tunnel, although the ground was expected to be elasto-plastic. This is because weathered rock ground is changed elasto-plastic ground into elastic ground by multi-steel grouting and forepoling.

  • PDF

Extraction of Time-varying Failure Rate for Power Distribution System Equipment (배전계통 설비의 시변 고장률 추출)

  • Moon, Jong-Fil;Lee, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jae-Chul;Park, Chang-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.54 no.11
    • /
    • pp.548-556
    • /
    • 2005
  • Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

Assessment of Soil Characteristics on External Corrosion of Water Pipes (토양특성이 상수도관의 외부부식에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Bae, Chul-Ho;Kim, Ju-Hwan;Park, Sang-Young;Kim, Jeong-Hyun;Hong, Seong-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.737-745
    • /
    • 2006
  • The goal of this study is to present an external pit corrosion rate($p_{ecr}$) model with considering both the age of pipe and the soil characteristics. The correlation of nonlinear exponential model among conventional empirical models was a little higher than other empirical models in the prediction of $p_{ecr}$ according to the age of pipe. However, there has been a limit to predict Peer with the model by using only a pipe age since installation as a variable. The soil analysis results from sixty nine samples showed that all of the samples were non corrosive in the assessment of ANSI/AWWA scoring system. The correlation of soil corrosion factors and $p_{ecr}$ was also low. The application result of linear and nonlinear regression models that soil characteristics only showed a low correlation with $p_{ecr}$ Proposed nonlinear regression model in this study, with considering both the age of pipe and the soil characteristics, showed a little higher correlation ($R^2=0.46$) than conventional model.