• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.641-648
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 지수 형태의 분포(Exponential Basic, Inverse Exponential, Lindley, Rayleigh) 특성을 갖는 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형의 성능을 비교 분석하였고, 이를 근거로 최적의 신뢰성 모형도 함께 제시하였다. 소프트웨어 고장 현상을 분석하기 위하여 시스템 운영 중 수집된 고장 시간 데이터를 사용하였고, 모수 추정은 최우 추정 법을 적용하여 해결하였다. 다양한 비교 분석(평균제곱오차(MSE) 분석, 평균값 함수의 참값 예측력 분석, 강도 함수의 평가, 임무 시간을 적용한 신뢰도를 평가)을 통하여 Lindley 모형이 가장 우수한 성능을 가진 효율적인 모형임을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통하여 기존 연구사례가 없는 지수 형태의 특성을 갖는 분포의 신뢰도 성능을 새롭게 파악하였고, 이를 통하여 소프트웨어 개발자들이 초기 단계에서 활용할 수 있는 기본적인 설계 데이터를 제시할 수 있었다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권11호
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• pp.548-556
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• 2005

Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.101-113
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• 2002

In this paper we introduce a new score generating (unction for the rank regression in the linear regression model. The score function compares the $\gamma$'th and s\`th power of the tail probabilities of the underlying probability distribution. We show that the rank estimate asymptotically converges to a multivariate normal. further we derive the asymptotic Pitman relative efficiencies and the most efficient values of $\gamma$ and s under the symmetric distribution such as uniform, normal, cauchy and double exponential distributions and the asymmetric distribution such as exponential and lognormal distributions respectively.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.487-493
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• 2015

Time series data sometimes show violation of normal assumptions. For cases where the assumption of normality is untenable, more exible models can be adopted to accommodate heavy tails. The exponential power distribution (EPD) is considered as possible candidate for errors of time series model that may show violation of normal assumption. Besides, the use of exible models for errors like EPD might be able to conduct the robust analysis. In this paper, we especially consider EPD as the exible distribution for errors of autoregressive models. Also, we represent this distribution as scale mixture of uniform and this form enables efficient Bayesian estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.7-14
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• 2002

In power system study, relibility assessment has been an important topic during past several decards because sudden power interruption can bring about enormous economic loss. although the size of a substation is smaller than that of generation system or transmission system, switching actions after fault(s) make reliability assessment of substation rather complex situations such as switching actions easily and permit various probability distributions in describing substation elements. Despite this ability of Monte Carlo simulation, one-parameter exponential distribution is still popular in this reliability assessment. This paper examines the characteristics of several two-parameter probability distributions, and offers new parameter decision rule based on average and variance of the target to be modelled. In case study, this paper shows the profits by using Weibull distribution which is one of two-parameter probabilistic distributions instead of exponential one.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.423-432
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• 1999

Accelerated life testing of product is commonly used to reduced test time and costs. In this papers is considered when the product is a two component system with lifetimes following the bivariate exponential distribution of Sarkar(1987) using inverse power rule model. Also we derived the maximum likelihood estimators of parameters for asymptotic normality. We compare the mean square error of the proposed estimator for the life distribution under use conditions stree through Monte Carlo simulation.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제59권2호
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• pp.154-157
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• 2010

In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rates(TFR) of power distribution system components are extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) and the reliability of power distribution system is evaluated using Mean Failure Rate(MFR) and TFR. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential and Weibull distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Also the reliability of the real power distribution system of Korea is evaluated using the MFR and TFR extracted from real failure data, respectively and the results of each case are compared with each other. As a result, it is proved that the reliability evaluation using the TFR is more realistic than MFR. In addition, it is presented that the application method at power distribution system maintenance and repair using the result of TFR.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.195-202
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• 2015

소프트웨어 고장분석을 위한 비동질적인 포아송과정에서 결함당 고장발생률이 상수이거나, 단조 증가 또는 단조 감소하는 패턴을 가질 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 결함의 기대값을 가정하는 유한고장소프트웨어 NHPP모형과 수리시점에서도 고장이 발생할 상황을 반영하는 무한고장 NHPP모형들을 비교 제시하였다. 소프트웨어 신뢰성분야에서 많이 사용되는 지수파우어분포에 근거한 유한고장과 무한고장 소프트웨어 신뢰성모형에 대한 비교문제를 제시하였다. 그 결과 유한고장모형이 무한고장모형보다 효율적으로 나타났다. 그리고 모수추정법은 최우추정법을 이용하였다. 이 연구를 통하여 소프트웨어 개발자들은 소프트웨어 고장현상을 파악하는데 어느 정도 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.19-49
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• 2023

The present study proposes a theoretical and numerical investigation on the dynamic response behaviour of a functional graded (FG) ceramic-metal tapered rotor shaft system, by the differential quadrature finite elements method (DQFEM) to identify the natural frequencies for modelling and analysis of the structure with suitable validations. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of heat gradients on the natural frequency of rotation of FG shafts via three-dimensional solid elements, as well as a theoretical examination using the Timoshenko beam mode, which took into account the gyroscopic effect and rotational inertia. The functionally graded material's distribution is described by two distribution laws: the power law and the exponential law. To simulate varied thermal conditions, radial temperature distributions are obtained using the nonlinear temperature distribution (NLTD) and exponential temperature distribution (ETD) approaches. This work deals with the results of the effect on the fundamental frequencies of different material's laws gradation and temperature gradients distributions. Attempts are conducted to identify adequate explanations for the behaviours based on material characteristics. The effect of taper angle and material distribution on the dynamic behaviour of the FG conical rotor system is discussed.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권11호
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• pp.476-484
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• 2006

The failure prediction and preventive maintenance for the equipment of nuclear power plant area using reliability-centered maintenance have been grown. On the other hand, the maintenance for power distribution system consists of time-based maintenance mainly. In this paper, the new maintenance algorithms for power distribution system are developed considering reliability indices. First of all, Time-varying failure rates are extracted from data accumulated at KEPCO using exponential distribution function and weibull distribution function. Next, based on the extracted failure rate, reliability for real power distribution system is evaluated for applying the effective maintenance algorithm which is the analytic method deciding the maintenance point of time and searching the feeder affecting the specific customer. Also the algorithm deciding the maintenance priority order are presented based on sensitivity analysis and equipment investment plan are analyzed through the presented algorithm at real power distribution system.