• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.339-348
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to predict the economic size of foods-for-elderly market, which will be valuable information for establishing related policy and backup system. After setting the scope of related industry, detailed information for current market situation was investigated and a systematic forecast for market changes in the future was performed. Economic growth, changes in consumer expenditure and economic status of the elderly, current subscription of medical insurance and saving for pension were reflected. In addition, a survey toward related firms was completed and changes in aged population and incidence of chronic disease in the elderly were taken into account. Results show that the annual growth rate of the market was predicted to be the minimum 4.54% through the maximum 8.32% from 2010 to 2025 and its market size was forecasted to be the minimum 7,073 ten million won through the maximum 10,976 ten million won. It is expected that the market of foods-for-elderly will grow rapidly with development of foods technology and fast increase of aged population. Especially, growth of health functional foods and foods for special dietary uses for elderly will be distinguished. However, it seems that related firms are on the hedge, watching current trend of the related industry. This may results in insufficient supply against the demand. Therefore, policy for foods-for-elderly should be introduced and systematically administered, including R&D support, standardization and authentication for foods-for-elderly, construction of related database system.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.214-223
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to present a new industrial land demand prediction method that can consider external economic factors. The analysis model used ARIMA-X, which can consider exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are composed of macroeconomic variable, Business Survey Index, and Composite Economic Index variables to reflect the economic and industrial structure. And, among the exogenous variables, only variables that precede the supply of industrial land are used for prediction. Variables with precedence in the supply of industrial land were found to be import, private and government consumption expenditure, total capital formation, economic sentiment index, producer's shipment index, machinery for domestic demand and composite leading index. As a result of estimating the ARIMA-X model using these variables, the ARIMA-X(1,1,0) model including only the import was found to be statistically significant. The industrial land demand forecast predicted the industrial land from 2021 to 2030 by reflecting the scenario of change in import. As a result, the future demand for industrial land was predicted to increase by 1.91% annually to 1,030.79 km². As a result of comparing these results with the existing exponential smoothing method, the results of this study were found to be more suitable than the existing models. It is expected to b available as a new industrial land forecasting model.