• 제목/요약/키워드: expected utility

검색결과 345건 처리시간 0.028초

이윤율헤징을 이용한 원유 구매 전략 (Profit Margin Hedging Strategy in Crude Oil Purchasing)

  • 양지혜;김현석
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.499-517
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 원유 구매자가 원유를 구매함에 있어 이윤율헤징 전략이 항상 헤징하거나 모두 현물 구매하는 전략에 비해 최적의 구매전략이 될 수 있는지 기대목표효용 함수를 이용하여 이론적으로 분석하고 시뮬레이션을 실시하였다. 또한 선물가격이 평균회귀할 때 이윤율헤징이 최적의 전략이 된다는 이론적 증명을 바탕으로 원유 선물가격의 평균회귀성에 대한 실증분석을 수행하였다. 기대목표효용함수에 대한 시뮬레이션 결과, 원유를 구매함에 있어 이윤율헤징 전략을 사용할 경우 다른 전략을 사용해 구매하는 경우에 비해 더 높은 기대효용을 가져오는 것으로 나타났다. 원유 선물가격의 평균회귀성에 대한 실증분석 결과 평균회귀성을 가진다는 것은 입증할 수 없었다. 그러나 이론적 분석과 시뮬레이션 결과, 원유 선물시장에서 이윤율 헤징을 통한 구매전략이 원유 구매의 최적 전략이 된다고 판단할 수 있었다.

Decision-Making of Determining the Start Time of Charging / Discharging of Electrical Vehicle Based on Prospect Theory

  • Liu, Lian;Lyu, Xiang;Jiang, Chuanwen;Xie, Da
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.803-811
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    • 2014
  • The moment when Electrical Vehicle (EV) starts charging or discharging is one of the most important parameters in estimating the impact of EV load on the grid. In this paper, a decision-making problem of determining the start time of charging and discharging during allowed period is proposed and studied under the uncertainty of real-time price. Prospect theory is utilized in the decision-making problem of this paper for it describes a kind of decision making behaviors under uncertainty. The case study uses the parameters of Springo SGM7001EV and adopts the historical realtime locational marginal pricing (LMP) data of PJM market for scenario reduction. Prospect values are calculated for every possible start time in the allowed charging or discharging period. By comparing the calculated prospect values, the optimal decisions are obtained accordingly and the results are compared with those based on Expected Utility Theory. Results show that with different initial State-of-Charge ($SoC_0$) and different reference points, the optimal start time of charging can be the one between 12 a.m. to 3 a.m. and optimal discharging starts at 2 p.m. or 3p.m. Moreover, the decision results of Prospect Theory may differ from that of the Expected Utility Theory with the reference points changing.

AHP를 이용한 장애인고용의 효용성평가 연구 (A Study on The Utility Estimation about Employment of The Disabled)

  • 나혜숙
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.225-235
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    • 2008
  • It is expected that the change of industrial structure of Knowledge based economy, and service based economy would affect on economic life of physically-challenged person with no exceptions. There have been some former studies which have been misunderstood the employment of disabled due to the declining employment of the disabled and prejudice to the disabled based on biased perspective and public opinion. This study have analyzed the employment conditions of the ordinary workers and disabled workers out of those prejudices and biased opinions. Wage, economic activity ratio, age, educational background and industry those 5 parameters are brought for analyzing the two comparison group. Each parameter have compared based on the statistical data of ordinary workers and disabled workers for past 7 years. Weight between each parameter have been drawn by collecting the experts' opinion using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process), and utility of employment of two comparison groups have been estimated through progress inclination of each parameter. Through the estimated outcome, present condition and controversial issues and way of improvement of domestic employment of ordinary workers and the disabled is mentioned.

소비자 효용을 고려한 실시간 요금제의 Load Serving Entity 수익 설계 방안 (Evaluation of a Load Serving Entity Revenue in the Real Time Pricing Considering Customer's Utility)

  • 노준우;김문겸;김도한;유태현;박종근
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제60권2호
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    • pp.266-272
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    • 2011
  • Real Time Pricing(RTP) is used not only to stabilize the price volatility in electricity market, but to hedge the price risk for Load Serving Entity(LSE). This paper presents an efficient method to reduce the risk of the price volatility in real-time electricity market. For designing the RTP, load patterns of customer are calculated by applying the demand elasticity and customer's utility is also analyzed to compute the RTP revenue through the risk-attribute of the LSE. In the end, the distribution of the LSE's profits can be evaluated to lead the optimal RTP value, depending on the level of customer's participation. Results from the case study based on PJM data are reported to illustrate the proposed method.

AHP를 이용한 장애인고용의 효용성평가 연구 (A Study on The Utility Estimation about Employment of The Disabled)

  • 박재현
    • 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한안전경영과학회 2008년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.405-419
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    • 2008
  • It is expected that the change of industrial structure of Knowledge based economy, and service based economy would affect on economic life of physically-challenged person with no exceptions. There have been some former studies which have been misunderstood the employment of disabled due to the declining employment of the disabled and prejudice to the disabled based on biased perspective and public opinion. This study have analyzed the employment conditions of the ordinary workers and disabled workers out of those prejudices and biased opinions. Wage, economic activity ratio, age, educational background and industry those 5 parameters are brought for analyzing the two comparison group. Each parameter have compared based on the statistical data of ordinary workers and disabled workers for past 7 years. Weight between each parameter have been drawn by collecting the experts' opinion using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process), and utility of employment of two comparison groups have been estimated through progress inclination of each parameter. Through the estimated outcome, present condition and controversial issues and way of improvement of domestic employment of ordinary workers and the disabled is mentioned.

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시간교환법과 시각화척도 방법을 이용한 폐경 후 에스트로겐 결핍증에 대한 효용 측정 (Measuring Utility for Menopausal Symptoms Based on Time Trade-Off and Visual Analogue Scale Methods)

  • 임승지;강혜영;강영주;이병석;박형무;신동혁
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.113-133
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    • 2007
  • The present study was conducted to measure health-related utility for post-menopausal symptoms among Korean woman. A survey questionnaire was developed to measure utility based on visual analogue scale(VAS) and time trade-off method (TTO). From January 29 to February 3, 2007, a face-to-face interview was conducted with 274 women aged 45 to 60 to ask about their subjective utility for hypothetical health status of mild or severe post-menopausal symptoms. Among the participants, 160 were recruited from outpatient departments of 3 hospitals and 114 from 2 sports centers located in Seoul. For mild symptom, the average utility score of the respondents was $0.63{\pm}0.14$ based on VAS and $0.61{\pm}0.26$ based on ITO. For severe symptoms, the average utility was $0.39{\pm}0.16$(VAS) and $0.44{\pm}0.27$ (TTO). For severe symptom, a higher utility score was observed for TTO than for VAS, which is consistent with earlier studies and thus supports the validity of the utility measurement in this study. Overall, the severity of post-menopausal symptoms of the respondents themselves was not significantly associated with the utility score that the respondents answered for hypothetical health status. Multiple regression analysis results showed that the utility score was significantly higher among respondents with older age, higher education, higher family income, and from hospitals. It is expected that the utility score measured in this study will enhance the understanding of the quality of life of women after menopause and will be used to conduct cost-utility analysis of health care interventions to treat post-menopausal symptoms.

Analysis of the Bicycle-Sharing Economy : Strategic Issues for Sustainable Development of Society

  • Kim, Hwajin;Cho, Yooncheong
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study posits that sustainable mobility of the sharing economy plays a key role to consider environment benefits. The purpose of this study is to investigate the bicycle-sharing economy as an emerging and alternative mode of transportation service and provide managerial and policy implications. The bicycle-sharing economy is still at an early stage of introduction as a transportation mode, while the governmental sector is promoting public bicycle-sharing to encourage bicycle as a substitute for private cars. Research design, data, and methodology - This study analyzed the current status of bicycle sharing programs through a survey that was distributed randomly to users and non-users across the country. Using factor analysis, satisfaction and loyalty for the existing users and intention to use and expected satisfaction for the potential users were examined in relation to utility factors. Results - The results show that economic utility affects satisfaction for user, while storage, mobility, and economic utility affects intention to use for potential users. The findings of this study indicate that in order to promote a bicycle-sharing scheme, it would be better to focus on the scheme's economic advantage to be truly effective. Conclusions - The findings of the study could be applicable to future directions of the sharing economy as a means to achieve the sustainable development of society.

초전도 전력기기의 계통적용을 위한 실시간 시뮬레이션 기법 개발 (PART 1 : 고온초전도 전력 케이블) (Development of a Real-time Simulation Method for the Utility Application of Superconducting power Devices (PART 1 : HIS Power Cable))

  • 김재호;박민원;박대진;강진주;조전욱;심기덕;유인근
    • 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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    • 제19권11호
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    • pp.1055-1060
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    • 2006
  • High temperature superconducting(HTS) power cable is expected to be used for power transmission lines supplying electric power for densely populated cities in the near future. Since HTS power cable is capable of the high current density delivery with low power loss, the cable size can be compact comparing with the conventional cable whose capacity is same. In this paper, the authors propose the real time simulation method which puts a teal HTS wire into the simulated 22.9 kV utility grid system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). For the simulation analysis, test sample of HTS wire was actually manufactured. And the transient phenomenon of the HTS wire was analyzed in the simulated utility power grid. This simulation method is the world first trial in order to obtain much better data for installation of HTS power device into utility network.

A Distributed Decision-Making Mechanism for Wireless P2P Networks

  • Wu, Xu;He, Jingsha;Xu, Fei;Zhang, Xi
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.359-367
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    • 2009
  • Trust-based solutions provide some form of payment to peers to encourage good behavior. The problem with trust management systems is that they require prior knowledge to work. In other words, peers are vulnerable to attack if they do not have knowledge or correct knowledge of other peers in a trust management system. Therefore, considering only trust is inadequate when a decision is made to identify the best set of peers to utilize. In order to solve the problem, we propose a distributed decision-making mechanism for wireless peer-to-peer (P2P) networks based on game theory and relevant trust mechanisms in which we incorporate the element of trust and risk into a single model. The main idea of our mechanism is to use utility function to express the relationship between benefits and costs of peers, and then make the decision based on expected utility as well as risk attitude in a fully distributed fashion. The unique feature of our mechanism is that it not only helps a peer to select its partners, but also mitigates vulnerabilities in trust-based mechanisms. Through analysis and experiments, we believe our approach is useful for peers to make the decision regarding who to interact with. In addition, it is also a good starting point for exploring tradeoffs among risk, trust and utility.

아파트 거주자의 주거 특성에 주거개선 행위와의 관계 연구 -45평 이상 아파트를 대상으로- (Housing Variables of Apartment Residents and Their Improvement Activities)

  • 윤복자
    • 대한가정학회지
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.135-152
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    • 1988
  • The purpose of this study was to survey the improvement activities for the apartment house ; and to examine the relationship between apartment residents and their housing improvement activities in order to present some informations for the further studies and plans of apartment design and housing policy. Library and questionnaire survey methods were used in this research. the sample was taken from 102 housewives living in the apartments over 45 pyong (1602 sq. ft.), in Seoul, Data were analyzed with the SPSS using frequency, percentage, chi-square test, F-test, Duncan's multiple range test, η2, and C2. The results were as follows: 1. It was found that residents had experienced with 3.6 kinds of housing improvement activities. Living rooms, dining rooms, and kitchens in family living areas ; balconies and utility rooms in utility areas were improved for the physical convenience and quality of living. 2. This survey indicated that apartment residents evaluated thier housing condition as high, except storage spaces and outdoor noises. 3. About 80% of respondents were expected to live continuously in the current apartments because they were satisfied with the size of thier residences, However, they wanted to improve the inside of the entire apartment, especially bathrooms. 4. Variables which had a significant relationship in housing improvement activities in the past were the length of residence, the expected length of residence, and the characteristic of residence. 5. The expected length of residence, and the characteristic of residence were found to be effective variable for evaluating the current residence. 6. Finally, the expected length of residence, and the characteristic of residence were significant variables of the housing plan in the future. Housing improvement activities were prevalent recently and expected to be continued in the future. It can be said, therefore, that apartment residents have a long -term plan to live in one place rather than moving out ever two-three years.

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