• Title/Summary/Keyword: expected net value

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Ecosystem service-based economic valuation of forest restoration in North Korea (북한 산림복원의 생태계 서비스 기반 경제적 가치평가)

  • Lim, Chul-Hee;Choi, Hyun-Ah
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.225-235
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    • 2021
  • To attain the long-term benefits of forest restoration in North Korea, it is important to present the economic value of reforestation. This study as aimed to evaluate the economic value based on cost-benefit analysis from the ecosystem services perspective. The benefits of reforestation were classified into ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, water supply, soil erosion control, and disaster risk reduction, and were converted into economic values to calculate comprehensive benefits. In the forest restoration scenario, an "independent forest restoration scenario (IFS)" and a "cooperation-based forest restoration scenario (CFS)" were composed in consideration of recent afforestation performance and forest policy, and the difference in the quantity of afforestation was derived as a scenario despite the same restoration period. In the IFS, it is estimated that over the next two decades, 800 thousand ha of the forest will be restored at a cost of KRW 3,829 billion, resulting in a benefit of KRW 6.87 trillion. The present benefit net value is KRW 3,39 trillion. In the CFS, it is estimated that the benefits of KRW 18,890 billion will be generated by restoring 2.2 million ha of the forest at a cost of KRW 10,053 billion. The present benefit net value is KRW 8,359 billion. In both scenarios, BCR had an economic feasibility value greater than 1, but there was a big difference in the expected benefits. In conclusion, forest restoration can have higher benefits than cost, and its value could be enhanced through forest cooperation.

Preliminary Evaluation of a Proposed Marine Ranching Project in Korea (우리 나라 바다목장화 사업의 예비적 경제성 평가)

  • 표희동
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 1998
  • An economic appraisal of a proposed marine ranching project is analysed using capital budgeting model such as net present value(NPV) and internal rate of return( IRR) as well as sensitivity analysis and goal seeking model. Of the factors for economic appraisal, direct benefits are to be determined by estimated harvest, prices and costs incurred by catching fishes, and indirect benefits include the additional economic effect of recreational fishing. And judging the worth of these project options depends upon the choice of discount rate of which 8.5% is recommended here. On the basis of estimated production, prices and costs the project is expected to yield NPV=615 million won and IRR=8.8%, which is quite accepted for an economic feasibility, under the first scenario, and NPV= -127 million won and IRR=7.93%, which is rejected, under the second scenario. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by calculating the switching value and sensitivity indicator in respect of the main project parameters. The results suggest that the project NPV and IRR are especially sensitive to fishes(rock fish and other rock fish) prices and fixed costs. Finally goal seeking analysis is carried out in order to reach a desired level of performance like NPV=0 in respect of the amount of hatchery-reared juverniles, the prices and the discount rate.

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A Study on Economic Analysis of Development of On-line Diagnosis Technique for Preventing Electrical Accidents (전기설비사고예방을 위한 온라인진단기술 개발의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Sang;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.63 no.2
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    • pp.313-318
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    • 2014
  • In the last couple of decades industrialization and technological development has not only increase in the scale of electrical facilities and it has become more and more complicated and diversified. Furthermore, fires in the electrical transformers, like those that have knocked out power in the country in the past years, are likely to become more common as utility systems begin to show their age. The importance of preventing electrical accidents can never be overemphasized and for this reason, supply of on-line diagnosis system combining information and communication technology(ICT) for the customer's electrical facilities has been increasing recently. The major advantage of on-line diagnosis system is that the device's potential problems could be detected early before a serious deterioration or breakdown occurs. In this paper, We estimated the benefit from the investment in the right of present value of sales, success rate of commercialization regarding R&D investment for development and commercialization of on-line diagnosis technology targeting customer electrical facilities. As a result, the net value added of 29.7 billion won and the increased profit by roughly 7.52 precent are expected.

Application of Economic Risk Measures for a Comparative Evaluation of Less and More Mature Nuclear Reactor Technologies

  • Andrianov, A.A.;Andrianova, O.N.;Kuptsov, I.S.;Svetlichny, L.I.;Utianskaya, T.V.
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.431-439
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    • 2018
  • Less mature nuclear reactor technologies are characterized by a greater uncertainty due to insufficient detailed design information, operational data, cost information, etc., but the expected performance characteristics of less mature options are usually more attractive in comparison with more mature ones. The greater uncertainty is, the higher economic risks associated with the project realization will be. Within a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies, it is necessary to apply economic risk measures to balance judgments regarding the economic performance of less and more mature options. Assessments of any risk metrics involve calculating different characteristics of probability distributions of associated economic performance indicators and applying the Monte-Carlo method. This paper considers the applicability of statistical risk measures for different economic performance indicators within a trial case study on a comparative evaluation of less and more mature unspecified LWRs. The presented case study demonstrates the main trends associated with the incorporation of economic risk metrics into a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies.

A Baseball Batter Evaluation Model using Genetic Algorithm

  • Lee, Su-Hyun;Jung, Yerin;Moon, Hyung-Woo;Woo, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a new batter evaluation model that reflects the skill of the opponent pitcher in Korean professional baseball. The model consists of evaluation factors such as Run Value, Contribution Score and Ball Consumption considering the pitcher grade. These evaluation factors are calculated as different data. In order to include the evaluation factors having different characteristics into one model, each evaluation factor is weighted and added. The genetic algorithms were used to calculate the weights, and the data were based on the 2016 records of Korea Professional Baseball and the salary data of the players of 2017. As a result of calculation of the weight, the weight of the Run Value was high and the weight of the Contribution Score was very low. This means that when calculating the annual salary, it reflects much of the expected score according to the batting result of the batter. On the other hand, the contribution score indicating the degree to which the batting result contributed to the victory of the team according to the state of the economy is not reflected in the salary or point system.

A Comparative Analysis of Risk-to-Performance of Sale and Lease Back: Based on the cases of ship investment company investment and ship acquisition (매도후임대의 리스크 대비 성과의 비교분석: 선박투자회사 출자 및 선박 인수 사례를 중심으로)

  • Chang, Wook
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - I analyzes risk-to-performance evaluated in the market using data from sale and lease back. Specifically, I analyze from the perspective of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back based on the cases of investment by ship investment companies and acquisition of ships. Design/methodology/approach - I use 49 sale and lease back data from 2017 to 2019 for empirical analysis. Findings - The main results of this paper are as follows. First, after sale and lease back of domestic ships, the average amount of sales by the leased shipping company is 25.1 billion won, the average amount of investment by the purchased financial institution is 14.6 billion won (60%) and the average length of the ship is nine years. In ship finance, sale and lease back is deemed to be appropriately used as a means of restructuring for a large amount of money. Second, the main risk factor for sale and lease back of domestic ships is credit risk and can be measured in VaR in practice. As a result of the empirical analysis, the average credit risk burden ratio is 9%. As a major risk factor, low creditworthiness of restructuring companies is the key. Third, as a result of measuring the profitability of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back of domestic ships at a net current price, it has an average value of 300 million won, but the deviation by case is very large. Fourth, the risk adjusted performance of sale and lease back of domestic ships is 0.54 on average compared to the total risk capital, and 0.52 compared to the stock-risk capital, and as with profitability earlier, the deviation of each case is very large and misaligned. In order to boost the sale and lease back market for large and long-term assets, in order to overcome low profitability as a prerequisite for future participation of commercial purchased financial institutions, it is expected that purchase decisions based on expectations versus risk will be necessary. Research implications or Originality - The results of this paper are expected to broaden the understanding of sale and lease back and foster the ability to assess long-term risk and performance. Based on this, it is believed that rapid restructuring of companies through sale and lease back of large amounts of long-term assets will greatly increase the utility of the domestic financial market.

A Study on the Economic Feasibility Analysis of Cosmetics Beauty Industrialization Center

  • Kim, Ji-In;Park, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2020
  • As the cosmetics beauty industry grows into a key next-generation industry, the establishment of an industrialization center is needed, but failure to verify the adequacy and feasibility of the investment could lead to financial burdens. In this study, the project costs and facilities of an industrial center are reviewed to analyze its economic feasibility based on the cost estimates, revenue estimates, estimated profit or loss calculations, and estimated operating cash flows. The profit estimation criteria were analyzed by applying 90 per cent of expected orders for research projects (24 billion won) and 12 per cent of rental rates for testing equipment (4.5 billion won for construction), and the benefit/cost ratio is higher than 1.02 per cent and the net present value is higher than '0' won, and the internal rate of return is also more than 5.06 per cent for all three analytical methods. Therefore, in order for the construction of a cosmetics beauty industrialization center to be economically feasible, it is necessary to maintain research project orders of more than 90 percent and return on equipment rent of more than 12 percent, and a strategic approach is needed to diversify business profits.

A Study on The Investment of The Secondhand BulkShip Using Real Option Model (실물옵션을 활용한 중고선박 가치평가연구)

  • Lee, Chong-Woo;Jang, Chul-Ho;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2022
  • Shipping companies earn profits through cargo transportation, and therefore, investment decisions to purchase ships are more important than anything else. Nevertheless, the cash flow discount method was mainly used in the economic analysis method, which assumes that all situations are static. This study shows that the real option model is useful in the economic analysis of ship investment. This economic analysis took into account the irreversibility of investment and uncertainty of benefits. In particular, this study used a binary option price determination model among real options. In addition, the simulation was conducted using actual investment data of A shipping company. As a result of the analysis, the investment value of used ships according to the net present value method was analyzed as negative (-), but the investment value in the real option model reflecting the flexibility of decision-making was evaluated as having positive (+) economic feasibility. It was analyzed that economic feasibility is affected by profit volatility and discount rate. Therefore, this study is expected to help shipping companies make more flexible decisions by using the real option model along with the existing net present value method when making ship investment decisions.

Evaluating and predicting net energy value of wheat and wheat bran for broiler chickens

  • Ning, Ran;Cheng, Zichen;Liu, Xingbo;Ban, Zhibin;Guo, Yuming;Nie, Wei
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.1760-1770
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    • 2022
  • Objective: It is crucial to accurately determine the net energy (NE) values of feed ingredients because the NE system is expected to be applied to the formulation of broilers feed. The NE values of 5 wheat and 5 wheat brans were determined in 12-to 14-day old Arbor Acres (AA) broilers with substitution method and indirect calorimetry method. Methods: A total of 12 diets, including 2 reference diets (REF) and 10 test diets (5 wheat diets and 5 wheat bran diets) containing 30% of test ingredients, were randomly fed to 864 male AA birds with 6 replicates of 12 birds per treatment. These birds were used to determine metabolizable energy (ME) (8 birds per replicate) in the chicken house and NE (4 birds per replicate) in the chamber respectively at the same time. After a 4-d dietary and environment adaptation period, growth performance, energy values, energy balance and energy utilization were measured during the following 3 d. Multiple linear regression analyses were further performed to generate prediction equations for NE values based on the chemical components and ME values. The NE prediction equation were also validated on another wheat diet and another wheat bran diet with high correlation (r = 0.98, r = 0.75). Results: The NE values of 5 wheat and 5 wheat bran samples are 9.34, 10.02, 10.27, 11.33, and 10.49 MJ/kg, and 5.37, 5.17, 4.87, 5.06, and 4.88 MJ/kg DM, respectively. The equation with the best fit were NE = 1.968AME-0.411×ADF-14.227 (for wheat) and NE = -0.382×CF-0.362×CP-0.244×ADF+20.870 (for wheat bran). Conclusion: The mean NE values of wheat and wheat bran are 10.29 and 5.07 MJ/kg DM in AA broilers. The NE values of ingredients could be predicted by their chemical composition and energy value with good fitness.

Deep learning-based monitoring for conservation and management of coastal dune vegetation (해안사구 식생의 보전 및 관리를 위한 딥러닝 기반 모니터링)

  • Kim, Dong-woo;Gu, Ja-woon;Hong, Ye-ji;Kim, Se-Min;Son, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a monitoring method using high-resolution images acquired by unmanned aerial vehicles and deep learning algorithms was proposed for the management of the Sinduri coastal sand dunes. Class classification was done using U-net, a semantic division method. The classification target classified 3 types of sand dune vegetation into 4 classes, and the model was trained and tested with a total of 320 training images and 48 test images. Ignored label was applied to improve the performance of the model, and then evaluated by applying two loss functions, CE Loss and BCE Loss. As a result of the evaluation, when CE Loss was applied, the value of mIoU for each class was the highest, but it can be judged that the performance of BCE Loss is better considering the time efficiency consumed in learning. It is meaningful as a pilot application of unmanned aerial vehicles and deep learning as a method to monitor and manage sand dune vegetation. The possibility of using the deep learning image analysis technology to monitor sand dune vegetation has been confirmed, and it is expected that the proposed method can be used not only in sand dune vegetation but also in various fields such as forests and grasslands.