• Title/Summary/Keyword: exceeding probability

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Probabilistic Strength at Serviceability Limit State for Normal and SBHS Slender Stiffened Plates Under Uniaxial Compression

  • Rahman, Mahmudur;Okui, Yoshiaki;Anwer, Muhammad Atif
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1397-1409
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    • 2018
  • Stiffened plates with high slenderness parameters show large out-of-plane deflections, due to elastic buckling, which may occur before the plates reach their ultimate strength. From a serviceability point of view, restriction of out-of-plane deflections exceeding the fabrication tolerance is of primary importance. Compressive strength at the serviceability limit state (SLS) for slender stiffened plates under uniaxial stress was investigated through nonlinear elasto-plastic finite element analysis, considering both geometric and material nonlinearity. Both normal and high-performance steel were considered in the study. The SLS was defined based on a deflection limit and an elastic buckling strength. Probabilistic distributions of the SLS strengths were obtained through Monte Carlo simulations, in association with the response surface method. On the basis of the obtained statistical distributions, partial safety factors were proposed for SLS. Comparisons with the ultimate strength of different design codes e.g. Japanese Code, AASHTO, and Canadian Code indicate that AASHTO and Canadian Code provide significantly conservative design, while Japanese Code matches well with a 5% non-exceedance probability for compressive strength at SLS.

Seismic Risk Analysis of Track-on-Steel Plate Girder Railway Bridges (무도상 강판형 철도교의 지진 위험도 해석)

  • Park, Joo Nam;Choi, Eun Soo;Kim, Sung Il;Cho, Sung Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2009
  • More than 40% of railway bridges on the conventional lines in Korea consist of track-on-steel plate girder (TOSPG) bridges. This type of bridge is typically designed without considering seismic loadings, as most of them were built before 1970. The seismic performance of this particular type of bridge could be upgraded through various seismic retrofit schemes, and seismic risk assessment could play a key role in decision-making on the level of the seismic retrofit. This study performed a seismic risk assessment of TOSPG bridges in Korea. The seismic damage of several crucial components of TOSPG bridges--fixed bearings, free bearings, and piers--were probabilistically estimated, and their seismic fragility curves were developed. The probability that the components would exceed their predefined limit states was also calculated by combining the fragility curves and the seismic hazard function. The analysis showed that the piers of TOSPG bridges, which are made of plain concrete without rebars, have relatively low risk against seismic loadings in Korea. This is because the mass of the superstructures of TOSPG bridges is relatively small, and hence, the seismic loading being transferred to the piers is minimal. The line-type bearings typically used for TOSPG bridges, however, are exposed to a degree of seismic risk. Among the bearings, the probability of the free-end bearings and the fixed-end bearings exceeding the slight damage state in 50 years was found to be 12.78% and 4.23%, respectively. The gap between these probability values lessened towards more serious damage states. This study could effectively provide an engineering background for decision-making activities on the seismic retrofit of railway bridges.

The Effect of Tax Investigation Probability on Entertainment Expenses in the Construction Industry (건설업의 세무조사 가능성이 접대비 지출에 미치는 영향)

  • Ahn, Mi-Gang;Lee, Su-Ji;Park, Sung-Jae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 2021
  • This study examined whether the probability of a tax investigation by the general construction industry could reduce the entertainment expenses in order to confirm whether a tax investigation can reduce excessive discretionary expenses of firms. Among the general construction industry listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2011 to 2018, 274 firms with sales exceeding 10 billion won in the previous year were targeted at the tax audit selection rate and the tax audit detection rate, which is a proxy for the possibility of a tax investigation. The effect of the ratio of entertainment expenses to sales and the increase rate of entertainment expenses was verified. As a result of the analysis, both the selection rate and the detection rate of the tax investigation have a significant negative effect on the proxy variable of the discretionary expenses measured as the proportion of entertainment expenses and the increase rate of entertainment expenses. The results of this study showed that the tax investigation is a means to curb the excessive expenditure of the firm's discretionary expenses, thus suggesting the direction for the taxation policy and the effectiveness of the tax investigation.

A Study of the Possibility of Building Energy Saving through the Building Data : A Case Study of Macro to Micro Building Energy Analysis (건물데이터를 통한 건물에너지 절감 가능성에 대한 연구 : 도시단위의 거시적 분석부터 미시적 건물에너지 분석사례)

  • Cho, Soo Youn;Leigh, Seung-Bok
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.11
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    • pp.580-591
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    • 2017
  • In accordance with 2015 Paris agreement, each individual country around the world should voluntarily propose not only its (individual) reduction target, but also actively develop and present expansion targets of its scope and concrete reduction goals exceeding the previous ones. Accordingly, it is necessary to prepare a macroscopic, long-range strategy for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which can cover a single building, town, city and eventually even a province. The purpose of this research is to gather and compile government-acquired data from various sources and (in accordance with contents and specificity), combine building data by stages by using multi-variable matrix and then analyze the significance of combined data for each stage. The first order data presents the probability and the cost effectiveness of energy saving on the scale of a city or a province, based only upon general information, size and power consumption of buildings. The second order data can identify a pattern of energy consumption for a building of a specific purpose and which tends to consume a larger amount of energy during one particular season (than others). Finally, the third order data can derive influential factors (base load, humidity) from the energy consumption pattern of a building, and thus propose an informed and practical energy-saving method to be applied in real time.

Fragility functions for eccentrically braced steel frame structures

  • O'Reilly, Gerard J.;Sullivan, Timothy J.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.367-388
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    • 2016
  • Eccentrically braced frames (EBFs) represent an attractive lateral load resisting steel system to be used in areas of high seismicity. In order to assess the likely damage for a given intensity of ground shaking, fragility functions can be used to identify the probability of exceeding a certain damage limit-state, given a certain response of a structure. This paper focuses on developing a set of fragility functions for EBF structures, considering that damage can be directly linked to the interstorey drift demand at each storey. This is done by performing a Monte Carlo Simulation of an analytical expression for the drift capacity of an EBF, where each term of the expression relies on either experimental testing results or mechanics-based reasoning. The analysis provides a set of fragility functions that can be used for three damage limit-states: concrete slab repair, damage requiring heat straightening of the link and damage requiring link replacement. Depending on the level of detail known about the EBF structure, in terms of its link section size, link length and storey number within a structure, the resulting fragility function can be refined and its associated dispersion reduced. This is done by using an analytical expression to estimate the median value of interstorey drift, which can be used in conjunction with an informed assumption of dispersion, or alternatively by using a MATLAB based tool that calculates the median and dispersion for each damage limit-state for a given set of user specified inputs about the EBF. However, a set of general fragility functions is also provided to enable quick assessment of the seismic performance of EBF structures at a regional scale.

Application of the Fluctuating Microbial Counts Using Probability Approaches in Food Industries (식품산업체에서 확률분포 모델을 이용한 불규칙적인 미생물 수 분포 활용)

  • Park, Gyung-Jin;Kim, Sung-Jo;Sim, Woo-Chang;Chun, Seok-Jo;Choi, Weon-Sang;Hong, Chong-Hae
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.237-242
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    • 2003
  • Sequences of industrial microbial counts of foods shows irregular fluctuating patterns as adeinition of fluctuating microbial counts(FMC). Recently, it beame clear that the FMC was considered as having a lognormal distribution as a first order approximation. Application of lognormal distribution to the industrial microbial counts could produce useful information in practice. This study is intended to verift the application method of lognormal idstribution in FMC. The one year's records for microbial counts of frozen dumplings from two companies were obtained, and the statistical analysis was carried out to estimate the frequencies of future events where counts exceeding selected levels and to compare the sanitation level of the two companies. The results showed that this spplication method enable translation of irregular recourds of microbial counts into an useful information such as te actual probalities of outburst of a given level and the quantitative predictions of potential hazards in the processing.

Application of FDS for the Hazard Analysis of Lubricating Oil Fires in the Air Compressor Room of Domestic Nuclear Power Plant (국내 원자력발전소의 공기 압축기실에서 윤활유 화재의 위험성 분석을 위한 FDS의 활용)

  • Han, Ho-Sik;Hwang, Cheol-Hong;Baik, Kyung Lok;Lee, Sangkyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2016
  • The standard procedure of fire modeling was reviewed to minimize the user dependence, based on the NUREG-1934 and 1824 reports. The hazard analysis of lubricating oil fires in the air compressor room of domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) was also performed using a representative fire model, FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator). The area ($A_f$) and location of fire source were considered as major parameters for the realistic fire scenarios. As a result, the maximum probability to exceed the thermal damage criteria of IEEE-383 unqualified electrical cables was predicted as approximately 70% with $A_f=1m^2$. It was also found that for qualified electrical cables, the maximum probabilities of exceeding the criteria were 2% and 90% with $A_f=2$ and $4m^2$, respectively. It was concluded that all electrical cables should be replaced with IEEE-383 qualified cables and the dike to restrict as $A_f{\leq}2m^2$ should be installed at the same time, in order to assure the thermal stability of electrical cables for lubricating oil fires in the air compressor room of domestic NPP.

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation on Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) for Air Quality Prediction (대기질 예측을 위한 기후·대기환경 통합모델링시스템 (ICAMS)의 기온 및 강수량 예측 능력 평가)

  • Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Seung-Yeon;Hong, Sung-Chul;Lee, Jae-Bum;Song, Chang-Keun;Lee, Hyun-Ju;Lee, Suk-Jo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.615-631
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    • 2012
  • This study provides an evaluation for capability of Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS) on future regional scale climate projection. Temperature and precipitation are compared between ground-level observation data and results of regional models (MM5) for the past 30 years over the Korean peninsula. The ICAMS successfully simulates the local-scale spatial/seasonal variation of the temperature and precipitation. The probability distribution of simulated daily mean and minimum temperature agree well with the observed patterns and trends, although mean temperature shows a little cold bias about $1^{\circ}C$ compared to observations. It seems that a systematic cold bias is mostly due to an underestimation of maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, the rainfall in winter and light rainfall are remarkably simulated well, but summer precipitation is underestimated in the heavy rainfall phenomena of exceeding 20 mm/day. The ICAMS shows a tendency to overestimate the number of washout days about 7%. Those results of this study indicate that the performance of ICAMS is reasonable regarding to air quality predication over the Korean peninsula.

Statistical Quality Control of Herbal Drugstuffs Distributed in Seoul Area - Centering around Ash, Acid-insoluble Ash, Loss on Drying and Hazardous Heavy Metals - (서울지역 유통한약재의 통계적 품질관리 - 회분, 산불용성회분, 건조감량, 유해중금속을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dong-Gyu;Kim, Bog-Soon;Han, Chang-Ho;Kim, Eun-Ju;Choi, Byung-Hyun;Park, Seung-Kook
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.274-280
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    • 2009
  • To survey the status of quality control of major ingredients of 'Ssanghwatang (Oriental medicine used for fatigue)', we analyzed 1,024 samples (9 kinds) of medical herbs to determine amounts of ashes, acid-insoluble ashes, loss on drying that are major elements to ensure basic quality of herbal drugstuffs. After ash analysis, Paeoniae Radix (from China) failed to meet the herbal standard criterion. After yielding Z-score(indicating the probability of exceeding its criterion) Zizyphi Fructus, Zingiberis Rhizoma, Paeoniae Radix, Rehmanniae Radix Preparata became objects of intense quality control (=IQC). Analysis on loss on drying shows Cinnamomi Cortex was unsuitable and was put under the IQC. In case of respective heavy metals, Angelicae Gigantis Radix, Cnidii Rhizoma, Cinnamomi Cortex exceeded the maximum permissible range for Cd. The 3 kinds of sub-standards were put to the IQC. Statistic figures showed a significant correlation (t-test, p<0.01) between country-of-origin and sub-quality rates. Compared to domestic one, imported medicinal herbs were less suitable in regard of acid-insoluble ash, loss on drying and Pb/Hg content. Meanwhile, amounts of Acid-insoluble ash showed positive relation with amounts of Pb (r=0.202) and As (r=0.243) among heavy metals leading to an inference that herbs of which root/rhizome is used for medical purposes attribute its high heavy metal content to the fine earth/sand being stuck to its root stalk.

Improved for Error Control Scheme in Wireless ATM (무선 ATM에서의 오류 제어 개선 방안)

  • Lee, Chang-Bum;Kim, Young-Woong;Soh, Surng-Ryurl;Kim, Yung-Kwon
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.4 no.2 s.7
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    • pp.274-280
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    • 2000
  • The fact that error probability is higher in wireless communication environment than the one in a fixed network makes it inappropriate to apply the same DLC (Data Link Control) protocol used in a wireline network to a wireless network. And since the existing DLC protocol for wireless network was optimized for low-rate data service, it is not suitable for a wireless network environment which should support high-speed and multimedia traffic. Therefore it is desperate to have a new DLC protocol for todays wireless mobile communication environment. In this paper, we propose an error control scheme in WATM (Wireless Asynchronous Transfer Mode) environment. which supportsmultiple traffic attributes, high-speed, multimedia data service. In this paper we modified the existing ASR ARQ (Adaptive Selective Repeat Automatic Repeat Request) protocol where cells exceeding maximum allowable delay range are discarded. And adding FEC (Forward Error Correction) for delay-sensitive traffic resulted in smaller increase of transmission delay.

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