• Title/Summary/Keyword: exceeding probability

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Investigation of the SPRT-Based Android Evasive Malware

  • Ho, Jun-Won
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.23-27
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we explore a new type of Android evasive malware based on the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) that does not perform malicious task when it discerns that dynamic analyzer is input generator. More specifically, a new type of Android evasive malware leverages the intuition that dynamic analyzer provides as many inputs within a certain amount of time as possible to Android apps to be tested, while human users generally provide necessary inputs to Android apps to be used. Under this intuition, it harnesses the SPRT to discern whether dynamic analyzer runs in Android system or not in such a way that the number of inputs per time slot exceeding a preset threshold is regarded as evidence that inputs are provided by dynamic analyzer, expediting the SPRT to decide that dynamic analyzer operates in Android system and evasive malware does not carry out malicious task.

Propeller racing of ocean-going ships with multiple screw propellers (다축선의 프로펠러 레이싱 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.222-231
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    • 2007
  • This paper represents a basic statistical examination on the navigability of ocean-going ship from the point of estimating the time lasting period when propeller racing occurred by using the basic probability theory and the statistics. The propeller racing is one of the most important seakeeping qualities in relation to the safety of the main engine and shafting system. The trend of the racing has been mainly investigated in order to estimate allowable maximum propeller diameter, operation of ocean-going ships, etc.. In those studies, the propeller racing generally and mainly means the situation (propeller exposed) in which the relative motion amplitude between ship hull and wave surface would exceed a depth of point in rotary disk propeller. Therefore, it seems that the magnitude of the amplitude and its exceeding frequency of propeller racing have been examined as a principal subject of study as usual. However, the time during which the amplitude exceeds the depth of point, that is, the propeller exposes in the air, must be also one of most important factor affecting the trend of propeller racing. Then, this paper proposes a new practical method for estimating the time lasting of exposed propeller related to propeller racing in rough-confused seas on the basis of the linear strip theory and the statistics. And, numerical examples of estimating the propeller racing probability are given for four wide ship forms. Finally the usefulness of the proposed method for predicting propeller racing based on the time lasting period is discussed.

Estimation of probabilistic hazard for Bingol province, Turkey

  • Balun, Bilal;Nemutlu, Omer Faruk;Benli, Ahmet;Sari, Ali
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2020
  • Due to the fact that Bingöl province is at the intersection of the North Anatolian Fault and the Eastern Anatolian Fault, the seismicity of the region is important. In this study, probabilistic seismic hazard analyzes (PSHA) were conducted to cover the boundaries of Bingöl province. It occurred since 1900, the seismicity of the region was obtained statistically by considering the earthquake records with a magnitude greater than 4 and the Gutenberg-Richter correlation. In the study, magnitude-frequency relationship, seismic hazard and repetition periods were obtained for certain time periods (10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 75 and 100 years). Once a project area determined in this study, which may affect the peak ground acceleration according to various attenuation relationships are calculated and using the Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map, average acceleration value for Bingöl province were determined. As a result of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the project earthquakes with a probability of exceeding 50 years indicate that the magnitude of the project earthquake is 7.4 and that the province is in a risky area in terms of seismicity. The repetition periods of earthquakes of 6.0, 6.5, 7.0 and 7.5 are 42, 105, 266 and 670 years respectively. Within the province of Bingöl; the probability of exceeding 50 years is 2%, 10% and 50%, while the peak ground acceleration values are 1.03 g, 0.58 g and 0.24 g. As a result, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis shows that the seismicity of the region is high and the importance of considering the earthquake effect during construction is emphasized for this region.

The application of reliability analysis for the design of storm sewer (우수관의 설계를 위한 신뢰성해석기법의 적용)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Jaea;Lee, Kyung Je
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.887-893
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the optimum design technology is suggested by using reliability analysis method. Nowadays, urban flood inundation is easily occurred because of local heavy rain. Traditional deterministic design method for storm sewer may underestimate the size of pipe. Therefore, stochastic method for the storm sewer design is necessary to solve this problem. In the present study, reliability model using FORM (First Order Reliability Method) was developed for the storm sewer. Developed model was applied to the real storm sewers of 5 different areas. Probability of exceeding capacity has been calculated and construction costs according to diameter have been compared. Probability of exceeding capacity of storm sewers of 5 areas have been calculated after estimating the return period of rainfall intensity.

Seismic fragility analysis of a new type of reinforced concrete energy dissipation structure

  • Penghui Yang;Xingwen Liang;Ren Xin;Huajing Zhao
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.92 no.3
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2024
  • In order to improve the seismic performance of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structure, high performance fiber reinforced concrete (HPFRC) energy dissipation walls were installed in RC frame to form a new aseismic structure. Two half-scale HPFRC energy dissipation wall-RC frame specimens were designed and constructed. Quasi-static tests were performed to study the failure mechanism, deformation performance, and energy dissipation performance. The test results indicate that HPFRC energy dissipation wall-RC frame structures can achieve the seismic fortification objective of being "repairable after major earthquake". Based on the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method, seismic fragility analysis of the HPFRC energy dissipation wall-RC frame structure was performed by using PERFORM-3D structural analysis software and 44 ground motion records. The results show that the HPFRC material has good tensile strain hardening performance, which can improve the damage resistance and energy dissipation capacity of the structure or components. When the structure collapses, the average spectral acceleration response corresponding to the fundamental period of the structure calculated by 44 ground motion records is greater than the spectral acceleration corresponding to the fundamental period of the structure duringa rare earthquake with a fortification intensity of 8 degree, so the HPFRC energy dissipation wall-RC frame structure has good anti-collapse ability. Under the action of a rare earthquake of magnitude 8, the exceeding probability of collapse of the HPFRC energy dissipation wall-RC frame structureis 0.03%, which meets the requirements forseismic protection of the structure under the action of a large earthquake.

Interference Probability Calculation of Frequency Sharing Between Non-Geostationary-Satellite Orbit Mobile Earth Station and Land Mobile Station (비정지궤도 위성이동지구국과 육상이동간의 주파수 공유에 따른 간섭 확률 계산)

  • 박지웅;최재훈;김희동
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.1807-1816
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    • 1998
  • The interference probability between non-geostationary-statellite orbit mobile station is calculated when the two systems are sharing the frquency band below 1 GHz. The probability density function of a mobile earth station(MES) is calculated based on the established propagation model and then, a probability of exceeding the threshold level is derived. By changing the average transimission per unit time of total MSS(Moblie satellite service) area and the ratio of transmitters for specific area, we obtain the average transmission per unit time for the area under consideration. From this, the exceedance probability for the given pfd threshold level is evaluated. The exceedance probability is increased as the average transmissio per unit time and ratio become larger. Also the effect of filter isolation between channels is accounted for.

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Empirical seismic fragility rapid prediction probability model of regional group reinforced concrete girder bridges

  • Li, Si-Qi;Chen, Yong-Sheng;Liu, Hong-Bo;Du, Ke
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.609-623
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    • 2022
  • To study the empirical seismic fragility of a reinforced concrete girder bridge, based on the theory of numerical analysis and probability modelling, a regression fragility method of a rapid fragility prediction model (Gaussian first-order regression probability model) considering empirical seismic damage is proposed. A total of 1,069 reinforced concrete girder bridges of 22 highways were used to verify the model, and the vulnerability function, plane, surface and curve model of reinforced concrete girder bridges (simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges) considering the number of samples in multiple intensity regions were established. The new empirical seismic damage probability matrix and curve models of observation frequency and damage exceeding probability are developed in multiple intensity regions. A comparative vulnerability analysis between simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges is provided. Depending on the theory of the regional mean seismic damage index matrix model, the empirical seismic damage prediction probability matrix is embedded in the multidimensional mean seismic damage index matrix model, and the regional rapid prediction matrix and curve of reinforced concrete girder bridges, simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges in multiple intensity regions based on mean seismic damage index parameters are developed. The established multidimensional group bridge vulnerability model can be used to quantify and predict the fragility of bridges in multiple intensity regions and the fragility assessment of regional group reinforced concrete girder bridges in the future.

A Critique of Designing Resource Adequacy Markets to Meet Loss of Load Probability Criterion

  • Yoon, Yong T.;Felder, Frank A.
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • v.3A no.1
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2003
  • To ensure resource adequacy in restructured electricity markets, policymakers have adopted installed capacity (ICAP) markets in some regions of the United States. These markets ensure that adequate generation exists to satisfy regional Loss of Load Probability(LOLP) criterion. Since the incentives created through ICAP mechanisms directly impact new generation and transmission investment decisions we examine one important factor that links ICAP markets with LOLP calculations;, determining the amount of ICAP credit assigned to particular generation units. First, we review and critique the literature on electric power systems' market failure resulting from demand exceeding supply. We then summarize the method of computing (the LOLP) as a means of assessing reliability and relate this method to ICAP markets. We find that only the expected value of available generation is used In current ICAP markets while ignoring the second and higher order moments, which tends to mis-state the ICAP value of a specific resource. We then consider a proposal whose purpose is to avoid this ICAP assignment issue by switching from ICAP obligations to options. We find that such a proposal may fail to not provide the benefits claimed and suffers from several practical difficulties. Finally, we conclude with some policy recommendations and areas for future research.

Evaluating the effective spectral seismic amplification factor on a probabilistic basis

  • Makarios, Triantafyllos K.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2012
  • All contemporary seismic Codes have adopted smooth design acceleration response spectra, which have derived by statistical analysis of many elastic response spectra of natural accelerograms. The above smooth design spectra are characterized by two main branches, an horizontal branch that is 2.5 times higher than the peak ground acceleration, and a declining parabolic branch. According to Eurocode EN/1998, the period range of the horizontal, flat branch is extended from 0.1 s, for rock soils, up to 0.8 s for softer ones. However, from many natural recorded accelerograms of important earthquakes, the real spectral amplification factor appears to be much higher than 2.5 and this means that the spectrum leads to an unsafe seismic design of the structures. This point is an issue open to question and it is the object of the present study. In the present paper, the spectral amplification factor of the smooth design acceleration spectra is re-calculated on the grounds of a known "reliability index" for a desired probability of exceedance. As a pilot scheme, the seismic area of Greece is chosen, as it is the most seismically hazardous area in Europe. The accelerograms of the 82 most important earthquakes, which have occurred in Greece during the last 38 years, are used. The soil categories are taken into account according to EN/1998. The results that have been concluded from these data are compared with the results obtained from other strong earthquakes reported in the World literature.

Can Minimum Wage Policy Increase Personal Income? -Evidence from China

  • Fan YANG;Shuang ZHANG;Ya-Hao LI
    • Journal of Wellbeing Management and Applied Psychology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: As an important provision to protect the rights and interests of low-income groups, it is worth studying whether the minimum wage policy can improve the quality of life for people. Research design, data and methodology: Using data from the 2015 and 2017 China General Social Survey (CGSS), this paper employs the logit model to estimate the probability of an individual's annual income being higher than the per capita disposable income of their province. It also utilizes the DID model to analyze the impact of minimum wage increases on individuals' annual incomes. Results: The analysis reveals that an overall increase in the minimum wage raises the probability of an individual's annual income exceeding the per capita disposable income by 3%. Among them, the probability increased by 2.2% for males and by 3.2% for females. Furthermore, the impact of the minimum wage on annual income varies depending on the individual's income level. Notably, the most positive and significant impact is observed for individuals whose income level is close to the minimum wage standard. Conclusions: This provides evidence that the increase in the minimum wage has effectively improved the quality of life for the population.