• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.310-316
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• 2023

This study aims to predict uncertain future scenarios that may unfold in South Korea in the near future, utilizing the theory of extreme events(X-events). A group of 32 experts, consisting of government emergency planning officers, was selected as the focus group to achieve this objective. Using the Focus Group Interview (FGI) technique, opinions were gathered from this focus group regarding potential X-events that may occur within the advanced science and technology domains over the next 10 years. The analysis of these opinions revealed that government emergency planning officers regarded the "Obsolescence of current technology and systems," particularly in the context of cyber network paralysis as the most plausible X-event within science and technology. They also put forth challenging and intricate opinions, including the emergence of new weapon systems and ethical concerns associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Given that X-events are more likely to emerge in unanticipated areas rather than those that are widely predicted, the results obtained from this study carry significant importance. However, it's important to note that this study is grounded in a limited group of experts, highlighting the necessity for subsequent research involving a more extensive group of experts. This research seeks to stimulate studies on extreme events at a national level and contribute to the preparation for future X-event predictions and strategies for addressing them.

• 대기
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.565-576
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• 2016

The yellow dust events in Korea are often associated with extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that travel across the source regions of yellow dusts. Although such synoptic patterns are well documented, climatic features of ETCs themselves during the yellow dust events are not well understood. The present study reports climatic features of spring-time ETCs, which accompany the yellow dust events in Korea, by tracking individual ETCs with an automated tracking algorithm. By analyzing Lagrangian tracks of ETCs from 1979 to 2014, it is found that, during yellow dust events, ETCs are located around Vladivostok, Russia. They are typically originated from the leeside of Altai-Sayan mountains about three days before the onset of the yellow dust events, and travel either eastward or southeastward in time. While their tracks are not unusual, they grow faster over the source regions of the yellow dusts, possibly lifting desert dusts above the planetary boundary layer, and further develop slowly as they travel eastward.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.175-183
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• 2011

The climate of the $21^{st}$ century is likely to be significantly different from that of the 20th century because of human-induced climate change. An extreme weather event is defined as a climate phenomenon that has not been observed for the past 30 years and that may have occurred by climate change and climate variability. The abnormal climate change can induce natural disasters such as floods, droughts, typhoons, heavy snow, etc. How will the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events be affected by the global warming change in the $21^{st}$ century? This could be a quite interesting matter of concern to the hydrologists who will forecast the extreme weather events for preventing future natural disasters. In this study, we establish the extreme indices and analyze the trend of extreme weather events using extreme indices estimated from the observed data of 66 stations controlled by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in Korea. These analyses showed that spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall have occurred. Under the global climate change, Korea, unlike in the past, is now being affected by extreme weather events such as heavy rain and abnormal temperatures in addition to changes in climate phenomena.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.2403-2407
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• 2015

Background: Very few analytical studies are available on any association between stressful life events (SLE) and colorectal cancer (CRC), at least in Iran. The aim of this case control study was to determine the association between stressful life events (SLE) and colorectal cancer. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in four hospital colonoscopy units in Tabriz city of Iran including 414 participants aged 40-75 years: 207 cases with CRC confirmed by pathology and colonoscopy findings and 207 controls free of neoplastic conditions were selected (from the same hospitals at the same period for the cases and after matching for age and sex). Stressful life events were assessed using a 43-item Holmes and Rahe Life Events Questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios for SLE and risk of CRC. Results: The stressful life event mean score in the case group was 141.3, in contrast to 63.8 in the control group (p<0.011). After adjusting for confounders, death of dear ones increased the risk of CRC (OR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.41-5.13). Other types of stressful life events (family and husband disputes, serious occupational problems, unemployment of > 6 months, and Serious financial problems) were also associated with CRC, but without statistical significance. Conclusions: According to our findings, it seems that SLE may increase the risk of CRC.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.95-100
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• 2003

This paper is for the investigation of the relationship between the geomagnetic disturbances and the relativistic electron events occurring at geosynchronous orbit. We have analyzed the electron fluxes of E > 2 MeV measured by GOES 10 satellite and the hourly Dst index for the period of April, 1999 to December, 2002. With the rigorous definition of the relativistic event, total 34 events were identified during the time period. Our statistical study showed that more than 50% of the total events occurred associated with weak (or sometimes virtually no) magnetic storms. And only ~ 20% of the events took place accompanied by a strong magnetic storm of $Dst_{min}$ < -100 nT. This result suggests that large geomagnetic storms may not be crucial for the occurrence of a relativistic event at geosynchronous orbit. We also found that there is no clear correlation between the maximum electron flux of an event and the associated minimum of Dst. Therefore any study on the physical mechanism (s) accounting for the relativistic events should take it into account that strong magnetic storms may not be necessarily required for the occurrence of a relativistic electron event at geosynchronous orbit.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.91-104
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• 1982

This study on stressful life events and coping methods of medical patients and community people was applied to people who was divided into two groups from July 19 to Aug. 7, 1982, One is hospitalized patients in medical wards of two university hospitals in Seoul. The other is inhibitants in eight Dongs of Seoul. This study compared the number and seversity of stressful life events reported by medical patients and community people within last six months, identified coping methods used by the two groups and explored the relationship between stressful life events and coping methods. Two instruments are used in this study. The first one to measure stressful life events, is Holmes ＆ Rahe(1967)'s S.R.R.S.(Soual Readjustment Rating Scale), which is translated ＆ amended, So that it consists of 51 items. The second one is for evaluating coping method. It consists of 36 items amended through preliminary test after consideration of related literature review and survey on the basis of Bell(1877)’s‘18-item-Questionnaire.’The materials were analyzed by S.P.S.S. (Statistical Package for the Social Science) program. The results of analysis were as follows: 1. There were no significant difference in the number and severity of stressful life events reported by medical patients and community people (p>.05). 2. There were no significant difference in use of coping methods (p>.05). 3. Stressful life events showed a positive correlation with coping methods (r=.363).

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.15-28
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• 1994

The purposes of this study are to define the family life events as a input factor of system model and to understand structural characteristics of the family life events in the modern multilateral society have and orientation of the management system leads a satisfactory life. This study attempted through the relation of cause and effect among the components of management system by Deacon & Firebaugh systems theory. The findings of this study are as follows: 1) As for the influence of family life events on the orientation of home management behavior the influential family life event on overall the orientation of home management behavior was social problem of family members($\beta$= -128). 2)Family life events which have influence on the family life satisfaction were financial problem and trouble with husband members problems demand for housework and everyday affairs. 3) The subdivison of home management behavior which influenced on the overall family life satisfaction were communication and decision originality the use of resources and the flexibility of plan. 4) Results of path analysis revealed that relation of cause and effect out of family life events resources the patterns of home management behavior and family life satisfaction the family life events made the family life satisfaction higher because they had negative effect on the family life satisfaction directly but changed total effect into positive one by family management behavior.

• 근관절건강학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.122-131
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• 2020

Purpose: This study aims to investigate major traumatic events experienced by nurses in regional trauma centers and explore the relationship among their traumatic events experience, perceived stress, and stress coping. Methods: Data were collected from 208 nurses in the trauma emergency room (trauma-bay) and trauma intensive care unit at four regional trauma centers. Results: The mean score of the traumatic events experience was 44.3 out of 76 points. The scores for physical injuries caused by traffic accidents or falls as well as patient care with abnormal behaviors were high. Significantly positive correlations among traumatic events experience, perceived stress, and stress coping were identified. Conclusion: Nurses working in the regional trauma centers experienced many various traumatic events, leading to high levels of stress. This study suggests that it is necessary to establish a regular surveillance system for nurses' traumatic events experience and perceived stress.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.373-379
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• 2017

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.