• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.401-419
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• 2022

A novel hybrid extreme machine learning-multiverse optimizer (ELM-MVO) framework is proposed to predict the liquefaction phenomenon in seismically excited tunnel lining inside the sand lens. The MVO is applied to optimize the input weights and biases of the ELM algorithm to improve its efficiency. The tunnel located inside the liquefied sand lens is also evaluated under various near- and far-field earthquakes. The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method to predict the liquefaction event against the conventional extreme machine learning (ELM) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. The outcomes also indicate that the possibility of liquefaction in sand lenses under far-field seismic excitations is much less than the near-field excitations, even with a small magnitude. Hence, tunnels designed in geographical areas where seismic excitations are more likely to be generated in the near area should be specially prepared. The sand lens around the tunnel also has larger settlements due to liquefaction.

• 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보처리학회 2020년도 추계학술발표대회
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• pp.1004-1007
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• 2020

본 논문에서는 청각 장애인이 가정에서 듣지 못해 발생하는 낭비와 위험을 미리 예방하기 위하여 가정에서 현재 발생하고 있는 소리를 알려주는 시스템을 구현하였다. 무지향성 마이크로 일상 소리 감지 후 음향 데이터에서 Mel-Spectogram 특징 벡터를 추출하여 Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) 모델의 Resnet 알고리즘을 진행한다. 서버에서 소리에 대한 분석을 진행한 후 그 결과를 안드로이드에서 실시간으로 5 초마다 확인하여 사용자에게 알림 서비스를 제공한다. 이를 통해 낭비를 줄이고 위험에 대처할 수 있게 한다. 청각 장애인의 소리에 대한 접근성을 다양한 측면으로 고려해야 한다는 사회적 인식을 확산시키고자 한다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제38권5호
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• pp.671-683
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• 2018

도시유역에 대한 집중호우에 따른 침수피해가 증가하고 있으며, 기존에 수행된 많은 연구에서 입증 되어진 바와 같이 도시 침수는 하수관망의 통수능을 상회함에 따라 발생하는 내수침수에 주로 기인하고 있다. 도시화가 상당히 진행되고 인구가 밀집되어 있는 지역에 대한 침수피해는 심각한 사회 경제적 피해를 야기한다. 이에 따라 도시지역에 대한 홍수 예측을 위한 확정 및 확률론적 연구가 진행되어 왔지만, 충분한 선행시간을 확보하며 단시간에 홍수량에 대한 예측결과를 도출하기에는 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 최적의 실시간 도시 홍수 예측 기법을 제시하기 위하여 도시유출해석 기반 실시간 홍수 예측을 위한 IDNN, TDNN 그리고 NARX 동적신경망을 비교하였다. 강남 지역의 2010, 2011년 실제 호우사상에 대하여 총 홍수량 예측 결과, 입력 지연 인공신경망의 최대 Nash-Sutcliffe 효율 계수는 각각 0.86, 0.53, 시간 지연 인공신경망의 경우 0.92, 0.41, 외생변수를 이용한 비선형 자기 회귀의 경우 0.99, 0.98으로 나타났다. 연구 대상지역에 대한 각 맨홀 누적월류량을 고려한 예측 결과의 오차분석을 통하여 외생변수를 이용한 비선형 자기 회귀 기법을 사용하는 것이 추후 도시 홍수 대응체계 구축에 적합할 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2021

유량예측은 효과적인 홍수관리 및 수자원 계획을 위한 매우 중요한 재난방지 접근법이다. 현재 기후변화로 인한 집중호우가 나날이 증가하고 있어 막대한 기반시설 손실과 재산, 인명 피해가 발생하고 있다. 본 연구는 미국 테네시주 Hickman County의 Vernon에 있는 Piney Resort의 최근 홍수사례분석을 통해 최대 강우 시나리오에서 유량예측에 대한 강우의 기여도를 측정했다. Piney River 유역내 USGS 두개의 관측소(03602500, 03599500)에서 20년(2000-2019) 동안의 일별 하천 유량, 수위 및 강우 데이터를 수집했고, Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)을 사용하였다. 또한, Tensorflow, Keras Machine learning frameworks, Python을 이용하여 14일로 구별된 유량 값을 예측하였다. 또한, 모델이 2021년 8월 21일의 범람 이벤트를 예측할 수 있었는지를 결정하는 데 사용되었다. 전체 데이터(수위, 유량 및 강우량)가 포함된 LSTM 모델은 일부 강우 모델을 제외하고 지속성 모델보다 우수한 성능을 보였으며, 강우자료만 이용하여 유량예측을 하는 것은 충분하지 않음을 나타냈다. 결과는 LSTM 모델은 0.68 및 13.84m³/s의 최적 NSE 및 RMSE 값을 나타냈고, 가장 낮은 예측 오차로 예측 최대유량은 94m³/s로 나타났다. 향후 강우 패턴에 대한 다양한 분석이 이루어진다면 효율적인 홍수 경보 시스템 및 정책을 설계하는 관련 연구에 도움을 줄 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.163-171
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• 2024

본 논문에서는 다목적 구조물인 다중연결 해양부유체를 대상으로 변형 기반 모드 차수축소법을 적용하고 차수축소모델의 구조응답 예측 성능을 향상시키기 위해 유전 알고리즘 기반의 센서 배치 최적화를 수행하였다. 다중연결 해양부유체의 차수축소모델 생성에 필요한 변형 기반 모드 데이터를 얻기 위해 다양한 규칙파랑하중조건에 대한 유체-구조 연성 수치해석을 수행하고 변형 기반 모드의 직교성, 자기상관계수를 이용하여 주요 변형 기반 모드를 선정하였다. 다중연결 해양부유체의 경우 차수축소모델의 구조응답 예측 성능이 계측 및 예측 구조응답 위치에 따라 민감하기 때문에 유전 알고리즘 기반의 최적화를 수행하여 최적의 센서 배치를 도출하였다. 최적화 결과, 모든 센서 배치 조합에 대한 차수축소모델 생성 및 예측 성능 평가 대비 약 8배의 계산 비용을 절감하였으며, 예측 성능 평가 지표인 평균 제곱근 오차가 초기 센서 배치보다 84% 감소하였다. 또한, 다중연결 해양부유체 모형시험 결과를 이용하여 불규칙파랑하중에 대한 최적화된 센서 배치의 차수축소모델의 구조응답 예측 성능을 평가 및 검증하였다.

• 대기
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.37-51
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• 2009

Kinematic characteristics of a heavy rainfall event occurred in Changma front are analyzed using synoptic weather charts, satellite imagery and NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) / NCAR(National Centers for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data. The heavy rainfall is accompanied with mesoscale rain clouds developing over the Southwest region of Korea during the period from 0300 LST to 2100 LST 25 June 2006. The surface cyclone in the Changma front is generated and developed rapidly when it meets following vertical conditions: The maximum value of relative vorticity is appeared at 700 hPa and is extended gradually near the surface. It is thought that the vertical structure of relative vorticity is closely related with the descent of strong wind zone exceeding $10ms^{-1}$. The jet core at 200 hPa is shifted southward and extended downward and the low-level jet stream associated with upper-level jet stream appeared at 850 hPa. Kinematic features of heavy rainfall system at cyclone-generating point are as follows: In the generating stage of cyclone, the relative vorticity below 850 hPa increased and the convergence below 850 hPa and the divergence at 400 hPa are intensified by southward movement of jet core at 200 hPa. The heavy rainfall system seems to locate to the south of the exit region of upper-level jet streak; In the developing stage of cyclone, the relative vorticity below 850 hPa and the convergence near surface are further strengthened and upward vertical velocity between 850 hPa and 200 hPa is increased.

• 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.45-54
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• 2017

A social phenomenon that occurs in a physical space is said to be a complex system. However, space syntax, which is commonly employed by researchers to identify such social phenomena, has various limitations in interpreting their complexity. On the other hand, agent-based modeling considers a variety of factors including the personality of the agent, objective-oriented work flows, estimation according to time flows and better prediction of space use through diverse parameters depending the situation, as well as the characteristics of the space. The agent-based method thus has the potentials to be developed as an alternative to space syntax techniques. In particular, discrete event driven simulation(DEVS), which is part of the agent-based modeling method, embraces the concept of networks just like space syntax, which allows a possible theoretical linkage in the future. This study suggests a procedural model of agent-based DEVS reflecting two different connection methods, i.e. connections between adjacent areas and those of the entire space, and attempts to identify the relationship between the local and regional indices of space syntax. A number of spaces were selected as examples-one for a preliminary experiment and eight modified for the main experiment-and space syntax and DEVS were applied to each of them. The comparative analysis of the results led to the conclusions as follows: 1) Adjacent connections were closely related to local indices, while the whole-space approach to regional indices. Local integration shows both characteristics. 2) Observation of the time flow model indicated a faster convergence with the range of 1 to 3-fold of the total time of one lap, with the error of less than 10%. 3) The heat map analysis showed more obvious characteristics of using the space for the entire space rather than adjacent connections. 4) Space syntax shows higher eligibility than ABM.

• 대기
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.277-288
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• 2016

Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that mainly occur over the sea in polar regions. Owing to their small spatial scale of a diameter less than 1000 km, simulating polar lows is a challenging task. At King Sejong station in West Antartica, polar lows are often observed. Despite the recent significant climatic changes observed over West Antarctica, adequate validation of regional simulations of extreme weather events such as polar lows are rare for this region. To address this gap, simulation results from a recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) covering Antartic Peninsula at a high horizontal resolution of 3 km are validated against near-surface meteorological observations. We selected a case of high wind speed event on 7 January 2013 recorded at Automatic Meteorological Observation Station (AMOS) in King Sejong station, Antarctica. It is revealed by in situ observations, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis fields that the synoptic and mesoscale environment of the strong wind event was due to the passage of a strong mesoscale polar low of center pressure 950 hPa. Verifying model results from 3 km grid resolution simulation against AMOS observation showed that high skill in simulating wind speed and surface pressure with a bias of $-1.1m\;s^{-1}$ and -1.2 hPa, respectively. Our evaluation suggests that the Polar WRF can be used as a useful dynamic downscaling tool for the simulation of Antartic weather systems and the near-surface meteorological instruments installed in King Sejong station can provide invaluable data for polar low studies over West Antartica.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제40권7호
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• pp.615-624
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• 2008

In this paper, the contribution of task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events that have occurred between 1986 and 2006 in Korean nuclear power plants are analysed in order to establish a strategy for reducing the human-related unplanned reactor trips. Classification systems for the task types, error modes, and cognitive functions are developed or adopted from the currently available taxonomies, and the relevant information is extracted from the event reports or judged on the basis of an event description. According to the analyses from this study, the contributions of the task types are as follows: corrective maintenance (25.7%), planned maintenance (22.8%), planned operation (19.8%), periodic preventive maintenance (14.9%), response to a transient (9.9%), and design/manufacturing/installation (6.9%). According to the analysis of the error modes, error modes such as control failure (22.2%), wrong object (18.5%), omission (14.8%), wrong action (11.1 %), and inadequate (8.3%) take up about 75% of the total unplanned trip events. The analysis of the cognitive functions involved in the events indicated that the planning function had the highest contribution (46.7%) to the human actions leading to unplanned reactor trips. This analysis concludes that in order to significantly reduce human-induced or human-related unplanned reactor trips, an aide system (in support of maintenance personnel) for evaluating possible (negative) impacts of planned actions or erroneous actions as well as an appropriate human error prediction technique, should be developed.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.315-330
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• 2017

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.