• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation performance

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters and Annual Trends for Racing Times of Thoroughbred Racehorses (더러브렛 경주마의 주파기록에 대한 유전모수 추정과 연도별 개량량 분석)

  • Oh, Seung-Yoon;Park, Jong-Eun;Lee, Jeong-Ran;Lee, Jin-Woo;Oh, Hee-Seok;Kim, Hee-Bal
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2009
  • The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters and annual trends on the racing performance of Thoroughbred horses by a statistical analysis of the resulting records. We used the racing results of 245,979 observations for 13,458 horses recorded in 19 years of race held at Seoul and Busan racing tracks, provided by Korea Racing Authority. After a careful adjustment of some variables such as racing times, jockey and trainer numbers and the average prize a horse won, we selected significant factors that explain the result of racing records of a horse by stepwise AIC and BIC methods. The estimated heritability and repeatability were 0.322 and 0.332, respectively. The average of annual phenotypic and genetic improvement was -0.166 seconds and -0.161 seconds, respectively. Based on the statistical approach, we established reasonable animal model of well-set variables, which is important in the study on estimating performance of racing horses.

Effects of Ventilation Condition on the Fire Characteristics in Compartment Fires (Part I: Performance Estimation of FDS) (구획화재에서 환기조건의 변화가 화재특성에 미치는 영향(Part I: FDS의 성능평가))

  • Hwang, Cheol-Hong;Park, Chung-Hwa;Ko, Gwon-Hyun;Lock, Andrew
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2010
  • Experimental and numerical studies were conducted to investigate the thermal and chemical characteristics of heptane fires in a full-scale ISO 9705 room. Representative fire conditions were considered for over-ventilated fire (OVF) and under-ventilated fire (UVF). Fuel flow rate and doorway width were changed to create OVF and UVF conditions. Detailed comparisons of temperature and species concentrations between experimental and numerical data were presented in order to validate the predictive performance of FDS (Fire Dynamic Simulator). The OVF and UVF were explicitly characterized with distributions of temperature and product formation measured in the upper layer, as well as combustion efficiency and global equivalence ratio. It was shown that the numerical results provided a quantitatively realistic prediction of the experimental results observed in the OVF conditions. For the UVF, the numerically predicted temperature showed reasonable agreement with the measured temperature. The predicted steady-state volume fractions of $O_2$, $CO_2$, CO and THC also agreed quantitatively with the experimental data. Although there were some limitations to predict accurately the transient behavior in terms of CO production/consumption in the UVF condition, it was concluded that the current FDS was very useful tool to predict the fire characteristics inside the compartment for the OVF and UVF.

Satisfaction Level and Performance Evaluation for CM Service in Korea (국내 건설사업관리 업무만족도 및 성과평가)

  • Kim, Won-Tae;Chang, Chul-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.108-117
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    • 2013
  • The domestic CM business market has continued to grow, but its size is relatively small yet in comparison with the total size of the domestic construction industry. Evaluation of CM projects was conducted through questionnaire surveys. Both clients and CM firms showed positive satisfaction levels. Nevertheless, the clients' satisfaction levels were relatively low in safety management, cost management, and document and information management. Superior areas of CM tasks were time management and recovery scheduling, quality control and technical instruction, and design value engineering. On the other hand, inferior areas of CM tasks were claim analysis and dispute resolution, cost estimation, and life cycle costing. Both entities have agreed with the positive effects of CM involvement in terms of cost saving, time reduction, quality improvement, and safety incidents prevention to at least 0~5% extent.

Frame Synchronization Algorithm based on Differential Correlation for Burst OFDM System (Burst OFDM 시스템을 위한 차동 상관 기반의 프레임 동기 알고리즘)

  • Um Jung-Sun;Do Joo-Hyun;Kim Min-Gu;Choi Hyung-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.30 no.10C
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    • pp.1017-1026
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    • 2005
  • In burst OFDM system, the frame synchronization should be performed first for the acquisition of received frame and the estimation of the correct FFT-window position. The conventional frame synchronization algorithms using design features of the preamble symbol, the repetition pattern of the OFDM symbol by pilot sub-carrier allocation rule and Cyclic Prefix(CP), has difficulty in the detection of precise frame timing because its correlation characteristics would increase and decrease gradually. Also, the algorithm based on the correlation between the reference signal and the received signal has performance degradation due to frequency offset. Therefore, we adopt a differential correlation method that is robust to frequency offset and has the clear peak value at the correct frame timing for frame synchronization. However, performance improvement is essential for differential correlation methods, since it usually shows multiple peak values due to the repetition pattern. In this paper, we propose an enhanced frame synchronization algorithm based on the differential correlation method that shows a clear single peak value by using differential correlation between samples of identical repeating pattern. We also introduce a normalization scheme which normalizes the result of differential correlation with signal power to reduce the frame timing error in the high speed mobile channel environments.

Coherent Multiple Target Angle-Tracking Algorithm (코히어런트 다중 표적 방위 추적 알고리즘)

  • Kim Jin-Seok;Kim Hyun-Sik;Park Myung-Ho;Nam Ki-Gon;Hwang Soo-Bok
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.230-237
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    • 2005
  • The angle-tracking of maneuvering targets is required to the state estimation and classification of targets in underwater acoustic systems. The Problem of angle-tracking multiple closed and crossing targets has been studied by various authors. Sword et al. Proposed a multiple target an91e-tracking algorithm using angular innovations of the targets during a sampling Period are estimated in the least square sense using the most recent estimate of the sensor output covariance matrix. This algorithm has attractive features of simple structure and avoidance of data association problem. Ryu et al. recently Proposed an effective multiple target angle-tracking algorithm which can obtain the angular innovations of the targets from a signal subspace instead of the sensor output covariance matrix. Hwang et al. improved the computational performance of a multiple target angle-tracking algorithm based on the fact that the steering vector and the noise subspace are orthogonal. These algorithms. however. are ineffective when a subset of the incident sources are coherent. In this Paper, we proposed a new multiple target angle-tracking algorithm for coherent and incoherent sources. The proposed algorithm uses the relationship between source steering vectors and the signal eigenvectors which are multiplied noise covariance matrix. The computer simulation results demonstrate the improved Performance of the Proposed algorithm.

Performance Evaluation of Underwater Acoustic Communication in Frequency Selective Shallow Water (주파수 선택적인 천해해역에서 수중음향통신 성능해석)

  • Park, Kyu-Chil;Park, Jihyun;Lee, Seung Wook;Jung, Jin Woo;Shin, Jungchae;Yoon, Jong Rak
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2013
  • An underwater acoustic (UWA) communication in shallow water is strongly affected by the water surface and the seabed acoustical properties. Every reflected signal to receiver experiences a time-variant scattering in sea surface roughness and a grazing-angle-dependent reflection loss in bottom. Consequently, the performance of UWA communication systems is degraded, and high-speed digital communication is disrupted. If there is a dominant signal path such as a direct path, the received signal is modeled statistically as Rice fading but if not, it is modeled as Rayleigh fading. However, it has been known to be very difficult to reproduce the statistical estimation by real experimental evaluation in the sea. To give an insight for this scattering and grazing-angle-dependent bottom reflection loss effect in UWA communication, authors conduct experiments to quantify these effects. The image is transmitted using binary frequency shift keying (BFSK) modulation. The quality of the received image is shown to be affected by water surface scattering and grazing-angle-dependent bottom reflection loss. The analysis is based on the transmitter to receiver range and the receiver depth dependent image quality and bit error rate (BER). The results show that the received image quality is highly dependent on the transmitter-receiver range and receiver depth which characterizes the channel coherence bandwidth.

Estimation and Decomposition of Portfolio Value-at-Risk (포트폴리오위험의 추정과 분할방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Whan
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.139-169
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces the modified VaR which takes into account the asymmetry and fat-tails of financial asset distribution, and then compares its out-of-sample forecast performance with traditional VaR model such as historical simulation model and Riskmetrics. The empirical tests using stock indices of 6 countries showed that the modified VaR has the best forecast accuracy. At the test of independence, Riskmetrics and GARCH model showed best performances, but the independence was not rejected for the modified VaR. The Monte Carlo simulation using skew t distribution again proved the best forecast performance of the modified VaR. One of many advantages of the modified VaR is that it is appropriate for measuring VaR of the portfolio, because it can reflect not only the linear relationship but also the nonlinear relationship between individual assets of the portfolio through coskewness and cokurtosis. The empirical analysis about decomposing VaR of the portfolio of 6 stock indices confirmed that the component VaR is very useful for the re-allocation of component assets to achieve higher Sharpe ratio and the active risk management.

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The Accelerated Life Test of 2.5 Inch Hard Disk In The Environment of PC using (PC 사용 환경의 2.5 인치 하드디스크의 가속 수명 시험)

  • Cho, Euy-Hyun;Park, Jeong-Kyu;Seo, Hui-Don
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2014
  • In order to estimate the life of 2,5 inch HDD which is adopted by PC environment, make the test plan which reflect the failure mode of market, make the test model of accelerated life test which reflect the stress of temperature. after an analysis of the environment of PC using, test procedure was decided that operation was write 50 % and read 50 %, and then access method was sequential 50 % and random 50%. The acceleration life test was executed on condition that temperature was $50^{\circ}C$ and $60^{\circ}C$, performance was 95 % in max performance, test time was 1000 hours. by the test of goodness of fit of anderson-darling of the failure data during test, it was confirmed that the distribution of failure fellow weibull. test for shape and scale was equal, and shape parameter was 0.7177, characteristic life was 429434 hours at normal user condition($30^{\circ}C$) by the analysis of weibull-arrhenius modeling. It made no difference about the statistics when equality test was executed. The activation energy was 0.2775eV. In analyzing between the failure samples of acceleration test and the samples of market return even though there is detail difference about the share of failure mode, the rank of share was almost same. This study suggest the test procedure of acceleration test of 2.5 inch HDD in PC using environment, and help the life estimation at manufacture and user.

Improving Initial Abstraction Method of NRCS-CN for Estimating Effective Rainfall (유효우량 산정을 위한 NRCS-CN 모형의 초기손실량 산정방법 개선)

  • Park, Dong-Hyeok;Ajmal, Muhammad;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.491-500
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    • 2015
  • In order to improve the runoff estimation accuracy of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) model, this study incorporated rainfall and maximum potential retention as contributors for initial abstraction. The modification was proposed based on 658 rank-order data of rainfall and subsequent runoff from 15 watersheds. The NRCS-CN model (M1), one of its inspired modified model (M2), and the proposed model (M3) were analyzed employing different CN approaches. Using tabulated, calculated and least squares fitted CNs ($CN_T$, $CN_C$, $CN_{LSF}$, respectively), the models' performances were evaluated based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). Applications of model M1, M2, and M3, respectively exhibited watershed cumulative mean [RMSE (23.60, 18.12, 16.04), NSE (0.54, 0.73, 0.79), and PBIAS (36.54, 20.25, 12.00)]. Similarly, using CNC (for M1 and M2 model) and $CN_{LSF}$ (for M3 model), the performance of three models respectively were assessed based on watershed cumulative mean [RMSE (17.17, 15.88, 13.82), NSE (0.76, 0.80, 0.85), and PBIAS (3.06, 4.47, 0.11)]. The proposed model (M3) that linked all of the NRCS-CN variants showed more statistically significant agreement between the observed and estimated data.

FH DFT-Spreading OFDM System for the Effective Channel Estimation and PAPR Reduction in Jamming Channel (재밍 채널에서 효과적 채널 추정과 PAPR 저감을 위한 주파수 도약 DFT-Spreading OFDM 시스템)

  • Kim, Jang-Su;Ryu, Heung-Gyoon;Lee, Seung-Jun;Ko, Dong-Kuk
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.796-804
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    • 2010
  • It is important to use the comb type pilot allocation for the continuous channel and efficient processing. And DFT-spreading OFDM is used a lot to solve high PAPR problem of OFDM system. However, PAPR is increased again when comb type pilot is used to estimate channel characteristics. So, in this paper, we employ a new SLM method to DFT-spreading OFDM system to reduce increased high PAPR. And we suggest an effective method to transmit side information without additional bandwidth. Pilot and side information must be preserved from jamming or intentional interferences since those are very important in DFT spread OFDM system using SLM. So, in this paper, we like to analyze and simulate the performance of DFT spread OFDM system based on SLM against jamming signal. To remedy the vulnerable shortcomings of DFT spread OFDM about jamming or intentional interferences, we employ FH(Frequency Hopping) method and analyze system performance under the several jamming conditions such as MTJ(Multi Tone Jamming) and PBJ(Partial Band Jamming).