• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimate the travel time

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Application of Multi-Server Queuing Theory to Estimate Vehicle Travel Times at Freeway Electronic Toll-Collection Systems (고속도로 자동요금징수시스템의 차량 통행시간 산정을 위한 다중서비스 대기행렬이론 연구)

  • Sung, Hyun-Jin;Choi, Jai-Sung;Kim, Sang-Youp
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.22-34
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents the investigation results of a research on how engineers can analyze the economic effect of the ETCS(Electronic Toll Collection System) installed to minimize the vehicle delays on freeway tollgates during toll payments. This research considered this economic effect to occur in the form of vehicle passing time reductions at the ETCS, and the multi-service queuing theory was applied to estimate these values. This research found: 1) When vehicles approaching tollgates show Poisson distribution and the service time of the ETCS shows Exponential distribution, the multi-service queuing theory would be applicable for estimating vehicle passing times at toll-gates, 2) Despite the ETCS placement, exit sections of tollgates give a greater reduction of vehicle passing times than entering sections due to more delays at conventional toll payments, and 3)The ETCS would not guarantee vehicle passing time reductions all the time, because in such a case as many vehicles were queuing at the ETCS, the total delay level for a toll gate would increase greatly. In addition, in order to examine the accuracy of the estimated vehicle passing values, this research compared the values from the multi-service queuing theory with the observed values from a set of field survey values at freeway toll-gates, and found that the two values were in a good agreement with a very low error range of 1-3 seconds per vehicle. Based on this result, the multi-service queuing theory was recommended for practice.

Development of Vehicle Queue Length Estimation Model Using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 활용한 차량대기길이 추정모형 개발)

  • Lee, Yong-Ju;Hwang, Jae-Seong;Kim, Soo-Hee;Lee, Choul-Ki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to construct an artificial intelligence model that learns and estimates the relationship between vehicle queue length and link travel time in urban areas. The vehicle queue length estimation model is modeled by three models. First of all, classify whether vehicle queue is a link overflow and estimate the vehicle queue length in the link overflow and non-overflow situations. Deep learning model is implemented as Tensorflow. All models are based DNN structure, and network structure which shows minimum error after learning and testing is selected by diversifying hidden layer and node number. The accuracy of the vehicle queue link overflow classification model was 98%, and the error of the vehicle queue estimation model in case of non-overflow and overflow situation was less than 15% and less than 5%, respectively. The average error per link was about 12%. Compared with the detecting data-based method, the error was reduced by about 39%.

Comparison of Dynamic Origin Destination Demand Estimation Models in Highway Network (고속도로 네트워크에서 동적기종점수요 추정기법 비교연구)

  • 이승재;조범철;김종형
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2000
  • The traffic management schemes through traffic signal control and information provision could be effective when the link-level data and trip-level data were used simultaneously in analysis Procedures. But, because the trip-level data. such as origin, destination and departure time, can not be obtained through the existing surveillance systems directly. It is needed to estimate it using the link-level data which can be obtained easily. Therefore the objective of this study is to develop the model to estimate O-D demand using only the link flows in highway network as a real time. The methodological approaches in this study are kalman filer, least-square method and normalized least-square method. The kalman filter is developed in the basis of the bayesian update. The normalized least-square method is developed in the basis of the least-square method and the natural constraint equation. These three models were experimented using two kinds of simulated data. The one has two abrupt changing Patterns in traffic flow rates The other is a 24 hours data that has three Peak times in a day Among these models, kalman filer has Produced more accurate and adaptive results than others. Therefore it is seemed that this model could be used in traffic demand management. control, travel time forecasting and dynamic assignment, and so forth.

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Feasibility of Ocean Survey by using Ocean Acoustic Tomography in southwestern part of the East Sea (동해 남서해역에서 해양음향 토모그래피 운용에 의한 해양탐사 가능성)

  • Han, Sang-Kyu;Na, Jung-Yul
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 1994
  • The ray paths and travel times of sound wave in the ocean depend on the physical properties of the propagating media. Ocean Acoustic Tomography(OAT), which is inversely estimate the travel time variations between fixed sources and receivers the physical properties of the corresponding media can he understood. To apply ocean survey technology by using the OAT, the tomographic procedure requires forward problem that variation of the travel times be identified with the variability of the medium. Also, received signals must be satisfied the necessary conditions of ray path stability, identification and resolution in order for OAT to work. The canonical ocean has been determined based on the historical data and its travel time and ray path are used as reference values. The sound speed of canonical ocean in the East Sea is about 1523 m/s at the surface and 1458 m/s at the sound channel axis(400m). Sound speeds in the East Sea are perturbed by warm eddy whose horizontal extension is more than 100 km with deeper than 200 m in depth scale. In this study, an acoustic source and receiver are placed at the depth above the sound channel axis, 350 m, and are separated by 200 km range. Ray paths are identified by the ray theory methed in a range dependent medium whose sound speeds are functions of a range and depth. The eigenray information obtained from interpolation between the rays bracketing the receiver are used to simulate the received signal by convolution of source signal with the eigenray informations. The source signal is taken as a 400 Hz rectangular pulse signal, bandwidth is 16 Hz and pulse length is 64 ms. According to the analysis of the received signal and identified ray path by using numerical model of underwater sound propagation, simulated signals satisfy the necessary conditions of OAT, applied in the East Sea.

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Control of Weld Pool Size in GMA Welding Process Using Neural Networks (신경회로를 이용한 GMA 용접 공정에서의 용융지의 크기 제어)

  • 임태균;조형석;부광석
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 1994
  • This paper presents an on-line quality monitoring and control method to obtain a uniform weld quality in gas metal arc welding (GMAW) processes. The geometrical parameters of the weld pool such as the top bead width and the penetration depth plus half back width are utilized to assess the integrity of the weld quality. Since a good quality weld is characterized by a relatively high depth-to-width ratio in its dimensions, the second geometrical parameter is regulated to a desired one. The monitoring variables are the surface temperatures measured at various points on the top surface of the weldment which are strongly related to the formation of the weld pool The relationship between the measured temperatures and the weld pool size is implemented on the multilayer perceptrons which are powerful for realization of complex mapping characteristics through training by samples. For on-line quality monitoring and control, it is prerequisite to estimate the weld pool sizes in the region of transient states. For this purpose, the time history of the surface temperatures is used as the input to the neural estimator. The control purpose is to obtain a uniform weld quality. In this research, the weld pool size is directly regulated to a desired one. The proposed controller is composed of a neural pool size estimator, a neural feedforward controller and a conventional feedback controller. The pool size estimator predicts the weld pool size under growing. The feedforward controller compensates for the nonlinear characteristics of the welding process. A series of simulation studies shows that the proposed control method improves the overall system response in the presence of changes in torch travel speed during GMA welding and guarantees the uniform weld quality.

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Determination of Optimal Locations for the Variable Message Signs by The Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 VMS의 최적위치 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sooil;Oh, Seung-hoon;Lee, Byeong-saeng
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6D
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    • pp.927-933
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    • 2006
  • The Variable Message Signs (VMS) are useful way to reduce the socio-economic costs due to the traffic congestions and delays by providing the information on traffic condition to drivers. This study provided a methodology to determine the locations of VMS's in terms of the minimization of the delay by applying the genetic algorithm. The optimal number of VMS's was also derived by the economic analysis based on the cost and the benefit. The simulation considered the variation of traffic volume, the frequency and duration of the incident, and the traffic conversion in order to reflect the real situation. I've made a scenario to consider traffic volume and incident, and it can undergo through changing different traffic volume and incident in time and days and seasons. And I've comprised two kinds of result, one is based on empirical studies, the other is based on Genetic Algorithm about optimal allocation VMS. This result of using optimal location VMS, reduce total travel time rather than preceding study based on normal location VMS and we can estimate optimal location VMS each one.

Study of engine oil replacement times estimate method using fuzzy and neural network algorithm (퍼지 및 신경망 알고리즘을 이용한 엔진오일 교환 시기 예측 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Sang-Yep;Hong, You-Sik;Kim, Cheon-Shik
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TE
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2005
  • If we can forecast the replacement time of engine oil, we extend the life-time of our engine and increase the continued ratio. But, the replacement times of engine oil is influenced by the following elements: the distance that cars or vehicles travel, vehicles that run a short range, types of engine oil etc. that run a long distance. In this paper, We forecast engine oil replacement times by using fuzzy neural network algorithm. This algerian uses the data of distance covered, color of engine oil etc. Through a sequence of simulation, the exchange system of intelligence style engine oil decides on the replacement times of engine oil quite accurately. Therefore, We expect vehicles to become more convenient if the above algorithm is a lied to the present types of cars.

Estimation of Willingness-To-Pay for Extensive Implementation of Congestion Pricing (혼잡통행료제도 확대시행에 따른 지불의사액 추정)

  • Kim, Gun-Young;Han, Sang-Yong;Kang, Kyung-Woo;Kim, Tae-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2005
  • Traffic congestion causes enormous social costs as well as loss of travel time and waste of energy. Though the Seoul metropolitan government implemented various forms of transportation policies such as urban road pricing and public transportation reform, traffic volume which across the Seoul metropolitan borders have greatly increased because of housing land development in suburban area. The purpose of this study is to estimate individual's willingness-to-pay(WTP) for extensive implementation of congestion pricing through policy-mix with bus rapid transit(BRT) system. So the field survey interviews carried out. The empirical analysis was done with priority given to the following two topics; derivation of individual WTP and prior evaluation of policy effect from the equity aspect. To estimate individual WTP, we adopted contingent valuation method (CVM). The former is to estimate individual WTP for respondent's maintaining his/her transit pattern when he/she is faced with congestion pricing by using compensating variation(CV) concept. And, the latter aims at evaluating policy effect from the equity aspect by calculating the Proportion of WTP to average income using WTP in income bracket for policy scenarios.

An Estimation of Occupancy Population Using the Expanded Mobile Phone Data (이동통신 자료 전수화를 통한 존재인구 산정 방안)

  • KIM, Kyoung Tae;LEE, Inmook;KWAK, Ho-Chan;MIN, Jae Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.222-233
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    • 2016
  • Recently, mobile phone data was applied in travel demand modeling as a new source of dynamic population movement. This study is also aimed to estimate "occupancy population" during a given period of time within a given spatial region using mobile phone data. An occupancy population was defined as the number of people residing or moving within a given time and space. In case of Seoul Metropolitan area, we divided the area into a number of administrative districts as zones for analysis and estimated the occupancy population of each zone by mobile phone data collected by SK telecom Co., a wireless telecommunication provider in Korea. For the expansion of mobile phone data, a new concept of "communication probability" was introduced and applied in the estimation of occupancy population of each zone by the hour. We compared the estimated number with the daytime population and the daytime population index referred by the Statistics Korea. The results showed that a positive correlation existed between the estimated number and the statistical number by nationwide survey. It was concluded that mobile phone data could be more cost-effective sources than a conventional survey method to estimate the pattern of population movement by the hour or by the day.

Estimating the Impact of DMZ Punchbowl Trail as a National Forest Trail on Local Economy using the Regional Input-Output Model (지역산업연관모델을 이용한 국가숲길의 지역경제 파급효과 분석: DMZ펀치볼둘레길을 중심으로)

  • Sugwang Lee;Jae Dong Yang;Jeonghee Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.113 no.2
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    • pp.170-186
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    • 2024
  • This study was conducted to identify the usage characteristics of the DMZ Punchbowl Trail (DPT) as a national forest trail (NFT) and to estimate its ripple effects on the local economy. The objective of this study is to provide policy implications for sustainable operational management. Out of the 500 questionnaires distributed, 215 respondents provided their complete travel itineraries and expenditures. The respondents, mainly aged 50 and above and residing in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, spend 3.5 hours of travel time to the DPT. Together with their families, the respondents typically spend approximately 4 hours for leisurely activities, primarily appreciation of scenic views and relaxation by visiting the "O-yubatgil." Furthermore, they extend their travels to other parts of Gangwon Province, where the DPT is situated. Within Gangwon Province, Yanggu County is the most visited destination. The respondents reported a notably higher average expenditure per visitor compared with the typical local walking tourists. Estimates show that the DPT generates an annual average of KRW 2.1 billion in direct expenditure (based on an average of 10,000 visitors for over five years), KRW 2.8 billion in production, and KRW 1.3 billion in added value, and it has created 40 jobs in Gangwon Province. The results of this study lies in empirically determining the specific economic scale and ripple effects of DPT as an NFT in the major sector, which occupies a significant portion of the Gangwon Province's local economy. The results will be instrumental in validating NFT policies and informing policy making for sustainable forest utilization.