• Title/Summary/Keyword: error sensitivity analysis

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Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis of LRCS Rainfall-Runoff Model(II) : Application (LRCS 강우-유출 모형의 보정 및 민감도 분석(II) : 적용)

  • O, Gyu-Chang;Lee, Gil-Seong;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.665-674
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    • 1999
  • This paper confirmed the applicability of model to Korean rivers through the calibration and sensitivity analysis of LRCS rainfall runoff model for 18 storm events of Songriweon station in Nakdong river system, and achieved that LS and WLS were better than LAD by model fitting results. Diagonal element of "hat" matrix and affluence measures were used by analysis of parameter estimates, and parameter IL was the most important parameter in model output. By the results of error propagation according to parameter error, parameters IL, TP, F1 were affected by error propagation, and this is measure of sensitivity for the model output. This paper confirmed the relationship of calibration and sensitivity analysis of model through analysis of sensitivity coefficient, diagonal element $h_i$ and $D_i$._i$.

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Sensitivity Analysis of the CBS Ku-Band Antenna due to Manufacturing/Alignment Errors (CBS Ku대역 안테나의 제작/정렬 오차 민감도 해석)

  • 한재흥;윤소현;엄만석;박종흥;이성팔
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.168-177
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    • 2003
  • The performance sensitivity analysis due to manufacturing/alignment errors is performed for the Ku-band offset parabola antenna of the domestic Communications and Broadcasting Satellite. The performance variations due to reflector random surface error, which inevitably happens during reflector manufacturing, are statistically analyzed using RMS error and correlation interval. The impact on the antenna performance of the fred hem's position and angular errors is investigated, and the sensitive directions are identified. When the target tolerances are applied, the performance degradations are found to be within the loss budget or corresponding performance margins.

Analysis of wind farm power prediction sensitivity for wind speed error using LSTM deep learning model (LSTM 딥러닝 신경망 모델을 이용한 풍력발전단지 풍속 오차에 따른 출력 예측 민감도 분석)

  • Minsang Kang;Eunkuk Son;Jinjae Lee;Seungjin Kang
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.10-22
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    • 2024
  • This research is a comprehensive analysis of wind power prediction sensitivity using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning neural network model, accounting for the inherent uncertainties in wind speed estimation. Utilizing a year's worth of operational data from an operational wind farm, the study forecasts the power output of both individual wind turbines and the farm collectively. Predictions were made daily at intervals of 10 minutes and 1 hour over a span of three months. The model's forecast accuracy was evaluated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and correlation coefficients with actual power output data. Moreover, the research investigated how inaccuracies in wind speed inputs affect the power prediction sensitivity of the model. By simulating wind speed errors within a normal distribution range of 1% to 15%, the study analyzed their influence on the accuracy of power predictions. This investigation provided insights into the required wind speed prediction error rate to achieve an 8% power prediction error threshold, meeting the incentive standards for forecasting systems in renewable energy generation.

Error Analysis and Modeling of Airborne LIDAR System (항공라이다시스템의 오차분석 및 모델링)

  • Yoo Byoung-Min;Lee Im-Pyeong;Kim Seong-Joon;Kang In-Ku
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2006
  • Airborne LIDAR systems have been increasingly used for various applications as an effective surveying mean that can be complementary or alternative to the traditional one based on aerial photos. A LIDAR system is a multi-sensor system consisting of GPS, INS, and a laser scanner and hence the errors associated with the LIDAR data can be significantly affected by not only the errors associated with each individual sensor but also the errors involved in combining these sensors. The analysis about these errors have been performed by some researchers but yet insufficient so that the results can be critically contributed to performing accurate calibration of LIDAR data. In this study, we thus analyze these error sources, derive their mathematical models and perform the sensitivity analysis to assess how significantly each error affects the LIDAR data. The results from this sensitivity analysis in particular can be effectively used to determine the main parameters modelling the systematic errors associated with the LIDAR data for their calibration.

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Augmented Displacement Load Method for Nonlinear Semi-analytical Design Sensitivity Analysis (준해석적 비선형 설계민감도를 위한 개선된 변위하중법)

  • Lee, Min-Uk;Yoo, Jung-Hun;Lee, Tae-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.492-497
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    • 2004
  • Three methods for design sensitivity such as numerical differentiation, analytical method and semi-analytical method have been developed for the last three decades. Although analytical design sensitivity analysis is exact, it is hard to implement for practical design problems. Therefore, numerical method such as finite difference method is widely used to simply obtain the design sensitivity in most cases. The numerical differentiation is sufficiently accurate and reliable for most linear problems. However, it turns out that the numerical differentiation is inefficient and inaccurate because its computational cost depends on the number of design variables and large numerical errors can be included especially in nonlinear design sensitivity analysis. Thus semi-analytical method is more suitable for complicated design problems. Moreover semi-analytical method is easy to be performed in design procedure, which can be coupled with an analysis solver such as commercial finite element package. In this paper, implementation procedure for the semi-analytical design sensitivity analysis outside of the commercial finite element package is studied and computational technique is proposed, which evaluates the pseudo-load for design sensitivity analysis easily by using the design variation of corresponding internal nodal forces. Errors in semi-analytical design sensitivity analysis are examined and numerical examples are illustrated to confirm the reduction of numerical error considerably.

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Analysis of the Difference in Pilot Error by Using the Signal Detection Theory (신호탐지론을 활용한 조종사 Error 차이 분석)

  • Kwon, Oh-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2010
  • This study was to analyze the difference in pilot error by using the Signal Detection Theory. The task was to detect the targeted aircraft(signal) which is different shape from many other aircraft(noise). From the two experiments, we differentiated the task difficulty followed by change in noise stimuli. Experiment 1 was to search the signal stimuli(fighter plane) while the noise stimuli(cargo plane) were increasing. The results from the Experiment 1 showed the tendency to decrease the hit rate by increasing the number of noise stimuli. However, the false alarm rate was not increased. The sensitivity(d') showed quite high. In Experiment 2, a disturbance stimulus(helicopter) was added to noise stimuli. The result was generally similar to those of Experiment 1. However, the hit rate was lower than that of Experiment 1.

Design, Fabrication and Micromachining Error Evaluation for a Surface-Micromachined Polysilicon Capacitice Accelerometer (표면미세가공기술을 이용한 수평감지방식의 정전용량형 다결정 실리콘 가속도계의 설계, 제작 및 가공 오차 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Pal;Han, Gi-Ho;Jo, Yeong-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.529-536
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    • 2001
  • We investigate a surface-micromachined capacitive accelerometer with the grid-type electrodes surrounded by a perforated proof-mass frame. An electromechanical analysis of the microaccelerometer has been performed to obtain analytical formulae for natural frequency and output sensitivity response estimation. A set of prototype devices has been designed and fabricated based on a 4-mask surface-micromachining process. The resonant frequency of 5.8$\pm$0.17kHz and the detection sensitivity of 0.28$\pm$0.03mV/g have been measured from the fabricated devices. The parasitic capacitance of the detection circuit with a charge amplifier has been measured as 3.34$\pm$1.16pF. From the uncertainty analysis, we find that the major uncertainty in the natural frequency of the accelerometer comes from the micromachining error in the beam width patterning process. The major source of the sensitivity uncertainty includes uncertainty of the parasitic capacitance, the inter-electrode gap and the resonant frequency, contributing to the overall sensitivity uncertainty in the portions of 75%, 14% and 11%, respectively.

Synthesis of the State-space Digital Filter with Minimum Statistical Cofficient Sensitivity (최소총계적계수 감도를 갖는 상태공간 디지틀 필터의 합성)

  • 문용선;박종안
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.510-520
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    • 1988
  • In this paper, the output error variance due to the differential vcariation of the state-space coefficient [ABCD], which is the coefficient quentization error, is normalized on the variance for cases that infinite wordlength state-space digital filter is realized by the finite one. That is, defining S as the statistical sensitivity and extending controllability gramian, observability gramian, and 2nd order mode analysis method to the state space digital filter, we synthesize the realization structure with the minimum statistical sensitivity and prove the effecency of the minimum statistical sensitivity structure synthesis by the simulation.

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Confidence region of identified parameters and optimal sensor locations based on sensitivity analysis

  • Kurita, Tetsushi;Matsui, Kunihito
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.117-134
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a computational method for a confidence region of identified parameters which are affected by measurement noise and error contained in prescribed parameters. The method is based on sensitivities of the identified parameters with respect to model parameter error and measurement noise along with the law of error propagation. By conducting numerical experiments on simple models, it is confirmed that the confidence region coincides well with the results of numerical experiments. Furthermore, the optimum arrangement of sensor locations is evaluated when uncertainty exists in prescribed parameters, based on the concept that square sum of coefficients of variations of identified results attains minimum. Good agreement of the theoretical results with those of numerical simulation confirmed validity of the theory.

Modeling of PECVD Oxide Film Properties Using Neural Networks (신경회로망을 이용한 PECVD 산화막의 특성 모형화)

  • Lee, Eun-Jin;Kim, Tae-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.831-836
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition (PECVD) $SiO_2$ film properties are modeled using statistical analysis and neural networks. For systemic analysis, Box-Behnken's 3 factor design of experiments (DOE) with response surface method are used. For characterization, deposited film thickness and film stress are considered as film properties and three process input factors including plasma RF power, flow rate of $N_2O$ gas, and flow rate of 5% $SiH_4$ gas contained at $N_2$ gas are considered for modeling. For film thickness characterization, regression based model showed only 0.71% of root mean squared (RMS) error. Also, for film stress model case, both regression model and neural prediction model showed acceptable RMS error. For sensitivity analysis, compare to conventional fixed mid point based analysis, proposed sensitivity analysis for entire range of interest support more process information to optimize process recipes to satisfy specific film characteristic requirements.