• Title/Summary/Keyword: error estimate

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Automatic Parameter Estimation of Hydrogeologic Field Test around Underground Storage Caverns by using Nonlinear Regression Model (비선형 회귀모형을 이용한 지하저장공동 주변 현장수리지질시험 매개변수의 자동 추정)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Cho, Won-Cheol;Kim, Nam-Won
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.359-369
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    • 2008
  • For the design and effective management of underground storage caverns, preliminary investigation on the hydrogeologic parameters around caverns and analysis on the groundwater flow must be carried out. The data collection is very imporatnat task for the hydrogeologic design so various hydraulic tests have been performed. When analyzing the injection/fall off test data, existing graphical method to estimate the parameters in Theis' equation is widely used. However this method has some sources of error when estimating parameters by means of human faults. Therefore the method of estimating parameters by means of statistical methods such as regression type is evaluated as a useful tool. In this study, nonlinear regression analysis for the Theis' equation is suggested and applied to the estimation of parameters for the real field interference data around underground storage caverns. Damping parameter which reduce the iteration numbers and inhance the convergence is also introduced.

Correlation Between the Point-Load Strength and the Uniaxial Compressive Strength of Korean Granites (국내 화강암의 점하중강도와 일축압축강도간의 상관분석)

  • Woo, Ik
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2014
  • This study presents the results of a regression analysis of the point-load strength ($I_{s(50)}$) and the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of granites in Korea. The regression was carried out for three cases using the least-squares method, reclassifying the granite samples based on their physical properties. The first regression analysis through the origin according to the weathering grade did not give a result with a sufficient degree of confidence, due to the small number of samples. However, the general trend of the correlation between UCS and $I_{s(50)}$according to weathering grade shows that the slope of the linear regression for weathered granite is steeper than that for fresh granite. The second analysis was a simple linear regression for all the granite samples using the least-squares method as well as a linear regression using the bootstrap resampling method in order to increase the confidence level and the accuracy of the regression results. The third regression considered the average strength of granite groups reclassified according to physical properties. These linear regression analyses yielded linear regression equations with slopes of 14 and small standard deviations being similar to values reported in previous studies on Korean granites, but whose intercept values range from 16 to 43 and have a larger standard deviation than those of the present study. In conclusion, it would be advisable to estimate UCS from $I_{s(50)}$, considering the error range derived from the deviation of the regression equations.

Influence of Amount of Pedigree Information and Parental Misidentification of Progeny on Estimates of Genetic Parameters in Jeju Race Horses (제주마 집단의 혈연 정보량과 정보 오류가 유전 모수 추정치에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Nam-Young;Lee, Sung-Soo;Yang, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2014
  • The pedigree information and race records of 1,000 m finishing time of Jeju race horses at KRA were used to study the effect of amount of pedigree information and parental misidentification on the estimates of genetic parameters. The modified data sets were made at the range of 2.5 to 25% parental misidentifications or loss of parental information of individuals with an increment of 2.5 percent. For each incremental level, 20 randomly replicated data sets were obtained and analyzed by single-trait analysis with a DF-REML(AI) algorithm. As the rate of misidentification increased or the amount of pedigree information decreased, the estimates of fraction of additive genetics variance component gradually decreased almost linearly (p<0.05), while the estimated fractions of error variance and permanent environmental variance components gradually increased for the finishing time. Regression coefficients of the percentage amount of both parents' information loss and incorrect pedigree information on additive genetic variances were -0.079 and -0.114, respectively (p<0.01). The estimate of heritability decreased by 0.92% for one percent loss of both parents' information and 1.39% for one percent increase of both parental misidentifications of progeny (p<0.01). For the consideration of probable incorrect and missing parent information of progeny in this early population of Jeju horses, the estimates of additive genetic parameters would be biased downward about ten percent. This results indicate that the amount of pedigree information loss and misidentification of progeny would severely affect estimates of genetic parameters and would reduce genetic gains for selection in Jeju horse population.

Estimating Forest Site Productivity and Productive Areas of Quercus acutissima and Quercus mongolica Using Environmental Variables (환경요인에 의한 상수리나무와 신갈나무의 임지생산력 및 적지 추정)

  • Shin, Man-Yong;Sung, Joo-Han;Chun, Jung-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to estimate forest site productivity and productive areas of Quercus acutissima and Quercus mongolica using environmental factors including climatic variables. Using the data set from digital forest site map and forest climatic map, a total of 42 environmental variables were regressed on site index for developing the best site index equations for Quercus acutissima and Quercus mongolica. Five to six environmental factors by species were selected as independent variables in the best site index equations. For the site index equations, three evaluation statistics (i.e., mean difference, standard deviation of difference, and standard error of difference) were applied to the test data set for the validation of the results, The site index equations fitted well to the test data set with relatively low bias and variation. As a result, it was concluded that the site index equations by species were well capable of estimating site quality. Finally, based on the site index equations, the productive areas by species were estimated by applying GIS technique to the digital forest maps. In addition, the distribution of productive areas by species was illustrated.

Development of Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology for the Maritime Transportation Accident of Merchant Ship (상선 운항 사고의 양적 위기평가기법 개발)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2009
  • This paper describes empirical approach methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of maritime transportation accident (MTA) of a merchant ship. The principal aim of this project is to estimate the risk of MTA that could degrade the ship safety by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to MTA based on the IMO's Formal Safety Assessment techniques and, by assessing the probabilistic risk level of MTA based on the quantitative risk assessment methodology. The probabilistic risk level of MTA to Risk Index (RI) composed with Probability Index (PI) and Severity Index (SI) can be estimated from proposed Maritime Transportation Accident Model (MTAM) based on Bayesian Network with Bayesian theorem Then the applicability of the proposed MTAM can be evaluated using the scenario group with 355 core damaged accident history. As evaluation results, the correction rate of estimated PI, $r_{Acc}$ is shown as 82.8%, the over ranged rate of PI variable sensitivity with $S_p{\gg}1.0$ and $S_p{\ll}1.0$ is shown within 10%, the averaged error of estimated SI, $\bar{d_{SI}}$ is shown as 0.0195 and, the correction rate of estimated RI, $r_{Acc}$(%), is shown as 91.8%. These results clearly shown that the proposed accident model and methodology can be use in the practical maritime transportation field.

Location Estimation System based on Majority Sampling Data (머저리티 샘플링 데이터 기반 위치 추정시스템)

  • Park, Geon-Yeong;Jeon, Min-Ho;Oh, Chang-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.2523-2529
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    • 2014
  • Location estimation service can be provided outdoors using various location estimation system based on GPS. However, location estimation system is based on existing indoor resources as GPS cannot be used because of insufficient visible satellites and weak signals. The fingerprinting technique that uses WLAN signal, in particular, is good to use indoors because it uses RSSI provided by AP to estimate location. However, its accuracy may vary depending on how accurate data the offline stage used where the fingerprinting map is built. The study sampled various data at the stage that builds the fingerprinting map and suggested a location estimation system that enhances its precision by saving the data of high frequency among them to improve this problem. The suggested location estimation system based on majority sampling data estimates location by filtering RSSI data of the highest frequency at the client and server to be saved at a map, building the map and measuring a similar distance. As a result of the test, the location estimation precision stood at minimum 87.5 % and maximum 90.4% with the margin of error at minimum 0.25 to 2.72m.

The Estimation of Friction Velocity in an Open Channel by the Entropy Concept (엔트로피 개념을 활용한 개수로 마찰속도 산정)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Son, Hee Sam;Yun, Gwan Seon;Noh, Hyun Seok;Ko, Hyun Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1533-1540
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    • 2015
  • In order to demonstrate the flow properties of the river bed and the design of hydraulic structures, the estimation of friction velocity is essentially required. However, existing friction velocity equations such as Log method and Power law have trouble to estimate the friction velocity because a boundary condition and various hydraulic properties are changed constantly in near the wall. In the present study, therefore, a new friction velocity equation that can minimize the parameters and reduce an error was suggested. To verify accuracy and reliability for the proposed equation, Clauser method, $\sqrt{gRI}$ method, reynolds stress method by Dr. Song were compared with the proposed method by estimated entropy parameter M for each channel. Consequently, the results show that uniform flow condition as well as non-uniform flow condition with highly accuracy nearly matched in case of accelerating non-uniform condition of $R^2=0.9621$, Decelerating Non Uniform condition of $R^2=0.9274$, Uniform condition of $R^2=0.8865$.

Performance Evaluation of Hash Join Algorithm on Flash Memory SSDs (플래쉬 메모리 SSD 기반 해쉬 조인 알고리즘의 성능 평가)

  • Park, Jang-Woo;Park, Sang-Shin;Lee, Sang-Won;Park, Chan-Ik
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.1031-1040
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    • 2010
  • Hash join is one of the core algorithms in databases management systems. If a hash join cannot complete in one-pass because the available memory is insufficient (i.e., hash table overflow), however, it may incur a few sequential writes and excessive random reads. With harddisk as the tempoary storage for hash joins, the I/O time would be dominated by slow random reads in its probing phase. Meanwhile, flash memory based SSDs (flash SSDs) are becoming popular, and we will witness in the foreseeable future that flash SSDs replace harddisks in enterprise databases. In contrast to harddisk, flash SSD without any mechanical component has fast latency in random reads, and thus it can boost hash join performance. In this paper, we investigate several important and practical issues when flash SSD is used as tempoary storage for hash join. First, we reveal the va patterns of hash join in detail and explain why flash SSD can outperform harddisk by more than an order of magnitude. Second, we present and analyze the impact of cluster size (i.e., va unit in hash join) on performance. Finally, we emperically demonstrate that, while a commerical query optimizer is error-prone in predicting the execution time with harddisk as temporary storage, it can precisely estimate the execution time with flash SSD. In summary, we show that, when used as temporary storage for hash join, flash SSD will provide more reliable cost estimation as well as fast performance.

Development and application of urban flood alert criteria considering damage records and runoff characteristics (피해이력 및 유역특성을 고려한 도시침수 위험기준 설정 및 적용)

  • Cho, Jeawoong;Bae, Changyeon;Kang, Hoseon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2018
  • Recently, localized heavy rainfall has led to increasing flood damage in urban areas such as Gangnam, Seoul ('12), Busan ('13), Ulsan ('16) Incheon and Busan ('17) etc. Urban flooding occurs relatively rapidly compared to flood damage in river basin, and property damage including damage to houses, cars and shopping centers is more serious than facility damage to structures such as levees and small bridges. In Korea, heavy rain warnings are currently announced using the criteria set by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). However, these criteria do not reflect regional characteristics and are not suitable to urban flood. So in this study, estimated the flooding limit rainfall amount based on the damage records for Seoul and Ulsan. And for regions that can not estimate the flooding limit rainfall since there is no damage records, we estimated the flooding limit rainfall using a Neuro-Fuzzy model with runoff characteristics. Based on the estimated flooding limit rainfall, the urban flood warning criteria was set. and applied to the actual flood event. As a result of comparing the estimated flooding limit rainfall with the actual flooding limit rainfall, the error of 1.8~20.4% occurred. And evacuation time was analyzed from a minimum of 28 minutes to a maximum of 70 minutes. Therefore, it can be used as a warning criteria in the urban flood.

Bayesian networks-based probabilistic forecasting of hydrological drought considering drought propagation (가뭄의 전이 현상을 고려한 수문학적 가뭄에 대한 베이지안 네트워크 기반 확률 예측)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.11
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    • pp.769-779
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    • 2017
  • As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.