• Title/Summary/Keyword: error estimate

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Model Between Lead and ZPP Concentration of Workers Exposed to Lead (직업적으로 납에 노출된 근로자들의 혈액중 납과 ZPP농도와의 관계)

  • Park, Dong-Wook;Paik, Nam-Won;Choi, Byung-Soon;Kim, Tae-Gyun;Lee, Kwang-Yong;Oh, Se-Min;Ahn, Kyu-Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 1996
  • This study was conducted to establish model between lead and ZPP concentration in blood of workers exposed to lead. Workers employed in secondary smelting manufacturing industry showed $85.1{\mu}g/dl$ of blood lead level, exceeding $60{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Removal defined by Occupational Safety and Health Act of Korea. Average blood lead level of workers in the battery manufacturing industry was $51.3{\mu}g/dl$, locating between $40{\mu}g/dl$ and $60{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Requiring Medical Removal. Blood lead level of in the litharge and radiator manufacturing industry was below $40{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria Requiring Temporary Medical Removal. Blood lead levels of workers by industry were Significantly different(p<0.05). 50(21 %) showed blood lead levels above $60{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Removal and 66(27.7 %) showed blood lead levels between the Criteria for Requiring Medical Removal, $40-60{\mu}g/dl$. Thus, approximately 50 percent of workers indicated blood lead levels above $40{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria Requiring Temporary Medical Removal and should receive medical examination and consultation including biological monitoring. Average ZPP level of workers employed in the secondary smelting industry was $186.2{\mu}g/dl$, exceeding above $150{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Removal. Seventy seven of all workers(32.3 %) showed ZPP level above $100-150{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Requiring Medical Removal. The most appropriate model for predicting ZPP in blood was log-linear regression model. Log linear regression models between lead and ZPP concentrations in blood was Log ZPP(${\mu}g/dl$) = -0.2340 + 1.2270 Log Pb-B(${\mu}g/dl$)(standard error of estimate: 0,089, ${\gamma}^2=0.4456$, n=238, P=0.0001), Blood-in-lead explained 44.56 % of the variance in log(ZPP in blood).

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Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

  • Kim, Sun-Young;Yi, Seon-Ju;Eum, Young Seob;Choi, Hae-Jin;Shin, Hyesop;Ryou, Hyoung Gon;Kim, Ho
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.29
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    • pp.12.1-12.8
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    • 2014
  • Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to $10{\mu}m$ in diameter ($PM_{10}$) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared ($R^2$) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and $66.0{\mu}g/m^3$ (standard deviation=2.40 and $9.51{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively). Cross-validated $R^2$ values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had $R^2$ values of zero. The national model produced a higher cross-validated $R^2$ (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate $PM_{10}$ source characteristics.

A Comparative Study on the Infinite NHPP Software Reliability Model Following Chi-Square Distribution with Lifetime Distribution Dependent on Degrees of Freedom (수명분포가 자유도에 의존한 카이제곱분포를 따르는 무한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Kim, Jae-Wook
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.372-379
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability factor during the software development process is elementary. Case of the infinite failure NHPP for identifying software failure, the occurrence rates per fault (hazard function) have the characteristic point that is constant, increases and decreases. In this paper, we propose a reliability model using the chi - square distribution which depends on the degree of freedom that represents the application efficiency of software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to the maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, a model selection based on the mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of the efficient model, were employed. For the reliability model using the proposed degree of freedom of the chi - square distribution, the failure analysis using the actual failure interval data was applied. Fault data analysis is compared with the intensity function using the degree of freedom of the chi - square distribution. For the insurance about the reliability of a data, the Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the chi-square distribution model depends on the degree of freedom, is also efficient about reliability because have the coefficient of determination is 90% or more, in the ground of the basic model, can used as a applied model. From this paper, the software development designer must be applied life distribution by the applied basic knowledge of the software to confirm failure modes which may be applied.

Effect of errors in pedigree on the accuracy of estimated breeding value for carcass traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle

  • Nwogwugwu, Chiemela Peter;Kim, Yeongkuk;Chung, Yun Ji;Jang, Sung Bong;Roh, Seung Hee;Kim, Sidong;Lee, Jun Heon;Choi, Tae Jeong;Lee, Seung-Hwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.1057-1067
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    • 2020
  • Objective: This study evaluated the effect of pedigree errors (PEs) on the accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) and genetic gain for carcass traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle. Methods: The raw data set was based on the pedigree records of Korean Hanwoo cattle. The animals' information was obtained using Hanwoo registration records from Korean animal improvement association database. The record comprised of 46,704 animals, where the number of the sires used was 1,298 and the dams were 38,366 animals. The traits considered were carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS). Errors were introduced in the pedigree dataset through randomly assigning sires to all progenies. The error rates substituted were 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80%, respectively. A simulation was performed to produce a population of 1,650 animals from the pedigree data. A restricted maximum likelihood based animal model was applied to estimate the EBV, accuracy of the EBV, expected genetic gain, variance components, and heritability (h2) estimates for carcass traits. Correlation of the simulated data under PEs was also estimated using Pearson's method. Results: The results showed that the carcass traits per slaughter year were not consistent. The average CWT, EMA, BFT, and MS were 342.60 kg, 78.76 ㎠, 8.63 mm, and 3.31, respectively. When errors were introduced in the pedigree, the accuracy of EBV, genetic gain and h2 of carcass traits was reduced in this study. In addition, the correlation of the simulation was slightly affected under PEs. Conclusion: This study reveals the effect of PEs on the accuracy of EBV and genetic parameters for carcass traits, which provides valuable information for further study in Korean Hanwoo cattle.

Error factors and uncertainty measurement for determinations of amino acid in beef bone extract (사골농축액 시료 중에 함유된 아미노산 정량분석에 대한 오차 요인 및 측정불확도 추정)

  • Kim, Young-Jun;Kim, Ji-Young;Jung, Min-Yu;Shin, Young-Jae
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2013
  • This study was demonstrated to estimate the measurement uncertainty of 23 multiple-component amino acids from beef bone extract by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The sources of measurement uncertainty (i.e. sample weight, final volume, standard weight, purity, standard solution, calibration curve, recovery and repeatability) in associated with the analysis of amino acids were evaluated. The estimation of uncertainty obtained on the GUM (Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement) and EURACHEM document with mathematical calculation and statistical analysis. The content of total amino acids from beef bone extract was 36.18 g/100 g and the expanded uncertainty by multiplying coverage factor (k, 2.05~2.36) was 3.81 g/100 g at a 95% confidence level. The major contributors to the measurement uncertainty were identified in the order of recovery and repeatability (25.2%), sample pretreatment (24.5%), calibration-curve (24.0%) and weight of the reference material (10.4%). Therefore, more careful experiments are required in these steps to reduce uncertainties of amino acids analysis with a better personal proficiency improvement.

Ranging Performance Evaluation of Relative Frequency Offset Compensation in High Rate UWB (고속 UWB의 상대주파수 차이 보상에 의한 거리추정 성능평가)

  • Nam, Yoon-Suk;Lim, Jae-Geol;Jang, Ik-Hyeon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2009
  • UWB signal with high resolution capability can be used to estimate ranging and positioning in wireless personal area network. The node works on its local clock and the frequency differences of nodes have serious affects on ranging algorithms estimating locations of mobile nodes. The low rate UWB, IEEE802.15.4a, describes asynchronous two way ranging methods such as TWR and SDS-TWR working without any additional network synchronization, but the algorithms can not eliminate the effect of clock frequency differences. Therefore, the mechanisms to characterize the crystal difference is essential in typical UWB PHY implementations. In high rate UWB, characterizing of crystal offset with tracking loop is not required. But, detection of the clock frequency offset between the local clock and remote clock can be performed if there is little noise induced jitter. In this paper, we complete related ranging equations of high rate UWB based on TWR with relative frequency offset, and analyze a residual error in the ideal equations. We also evaluate the performance of the relative frequency offset algorithm by simulation and analyze the ranging errors according to the number of TWR to compensate coarse clock resolution. The results show that the relative frequency offset compensation and many times of TWR enhance the performance to converge to a limited ranging errors even with coarse clock resolutions.

IUE SPECTRA OF SEYEERT 1 GALAXY NGC 7469-BLR CHARACTERISTICS OF NGC 7469 (SEYFERT 1 은하 NGC 7469의 IUE SPECTRA-NGC 7469 BLR의 물리적 특성)

  • Son, Dong-Hoon;Hyung, Siek
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.187-196
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    • 2005
  • From the line ratios of Si III] 1892 to C III] 1909 (Feibelman & Aller 1987), we estimated the BLR electron densities and their changes of Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 7469 using IUE spectra observed from June 11 to July 29, 1996 (Wanders et al. 1997). We separated blended Si III] and C III] lines using the STARLINK/DIPSO and measured their fluxes within the error of $12.4\%\;and\;6.6\%,$ respectively. Electron density fluctuated from $10^{9.69}\;to\;10^{10.93}$ during about two month period, i.e. 17.3 times density variation within 50 days. We also derived time delays from UV emission line variations .elative to the continuum $(at\;1315{\AA}):$ 2 days for C IV, 4 days for C III], 8 days for Si III]. This suggests that their stratified UV line emission regions are at 0.002 pc, 0.004 pc and 0.006 pc, respectively, from the central region. Based on the BLR sizes and their rotation velocities deduced from the line profiles, we estimate the central black hole mass as about $10^6M_{\odot}$

INTEGRATED RAY TRACING MODEL FOR END-TO-END PERFORMANCE VERIFICATION OF AMON-RA INSTRUMENT (AMON-RA 광학계를 활용한 통합적 광선 추적 기법의 지구 반사율 측정 성능 검증)

  • Lee, Jae-Min;Park, Won-Hyun;Ham, Sun-Jeong;Yi, Hyun-Su;Yoon, Jee-Yeon;Kim, Sug-Whan;Choi, Ki-Hyuk;Kim, Zeen-Chul;Lockwood, Mike
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2007
  • The international EARTHSHINE mission is to measure 1% anomaly of the Earth global albedo and total solar irradiance using Amon-Ra instrument around Lagrange point 1. We developed a new ray truing based integrated end-to-end simulation tool that overcomes the shortcomings of the existing end-to-end performance simulation techniques. We then studied the in-orbit radiometric performance of the breadboard Anon-Ra visible channel optical system. The TSI variation and the Earth albedo anomaly, reported elsewhere, were used as the key input variables in the simulation. The output flux at the instrument focal plane confirms that the integrated ray tracing based end-to-end science simulation delivers the correct level of incident power to the Amon-Ra instrument well within the required measurement error budget of better than ${\pm}0.28%$. Using the global angular distribution model (ADM), the incident flux is then used to estimate the Earth global albedo and the TSI variation, confirming the validity of the primary science cases at the L1 halo orbit. These results imply that the integrated end-to-end ray tracing technique, reported here, can serve as an effective and powerful building block of the on-line science analysis tool in support of the international EARTHSHINE mission currently being developed.

Study on the prediction of the stopping probabilities in case of train fire in tunnel by Monte Carlo simulation method (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재열차의 터널 내 정차확률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jong-Yoon;Kim, Hyo-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2018
  • The safety of tunnels is quantified by quantitative risk assessment when planning the disaster prevention facilities of railway tunnels, and it is decided whether they are appropriate. The purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of the train stopping in the tunnels at train fire, which has a significant effect on the results of quantitative risk assessment for tunnel fires. For this purpose, a model was developed to calculate the coasting distance of the train considering the coefficient of train running resistance. The probability of stopping in case of train fire in the tunnel is predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation method with the coasting distance and the emergency braking distance as parameters of the tunnel lengths and slopes, train initial driving speeds. The kinetic equations for predicting the coasting distance were analyzed by reflecting the coefficient train running resistance of KTX II. In the case of KTX II trains, the coasting distance is reduced as the slope increases in a tunnel with an upward slope, but it is possible to continue driving without stopping in a slope downward. The probability of the train stopping in the case of train fire in tunnel decreases as the train speed increases and the slope of the tunnel decreases. If human error is not taken into account, the probability that a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 250 km/h or above will stop in a tunnel due to a fire is 0% when the slope of the tunnel is 0.5% or less, and the probability of stopping increases rapidly as the tunnel slope increases and the tunnel length increases.

Analysis on Characteristics of Sediment Produce by Landslide in a Basin 1. Simulation of Sediment Produce and its Verification (유역 내에서의 산사태에 의한 토사발생특성 분석 1. 토사발생모의 및 검증)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Kee-Wook;Kim, Seong-Joon;Lee, Mi-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.133-145
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzed the characteristics of sediment produce by landslide triggered by rainfall. One-dimensional unsaturated groundwater model and infinite slope stability analysis were used to estimate the behavior of soil moisture and slope stability according to rainfall, respectively. Slope stability analysis was performed considering on soil depth and characteristics of trees. As the results considering on recovery of the failed slopes, much amount of sediment was produced in 1963, 1970, and 2002. As the results of verification of simulation results using Landsat 5 TM images, we can find differences of landslide location between the results from model and satellite images. These differences can be caused by uncertainties of the rough parameters in the model. However, in the case that Obong-dam basin was divided into two subbasin, Wangsan-chun and Doma-chun basin, the results of each subbasin show errors around 20%. And only 4% of error occurred in the case of comparing landslide area on the entire Obong-dam basin. These errors seem insignificant considering on the errors which can be caused from the analyses in this study such as estimation of sediment produce, soil cover classification, and estimation of landslide area.