• Title/Summary/Keyword: error estimate

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A SOC Coefficient Factor Calibration Method to improve accuracy Of The Lithium Battery Equivalence Model (리튬 배터리 등가모델의 정확도 개선을 위한 SOC 계수 보정법)

  • Lee, Dae-Gun;Jung, Won-Jae;Jang, Jong-Eun;Park, Jun-Seok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes a battery model coefficient correction method for improving the accuracy of existing lithium battery equivalent models. BMS(battery management system) has been researched and developed to minimize shortening of battery life by keeping SOC(state of charge) and state of charge of lithium battery used in various industrial fields such as EV. However, the cell balancing operation based on the battery cell voltage can not follow the SOC change due to the internal resistance and the capacitor. Various battery equivalent models have been studied for estimation of battery SOC according to the internal resistance of the battery and capacitors. However, it is difficult to apply the same to all the batteries, and it tis difficult to estimate the battery state in the transient state. The existing battery electrical equivalent model study simulates charging and discharging dynamic characteristics of one kind of battery with error rate of 5~10% and it is not suitable to apply to actual battery having different electric characteristics. Therefore, this paper proposes a battery model coefficient correction algorithm that is suitable for real battery operating environments with different models and capacities, and can simulate dynamic characteristics with an error rate of less than 5%. To verify proposed battery model coefficient calibration method, a lithium battery of 3.7V rated voltage, 280 mAh, 1600 mAh capacity used, and a two stage RC tank model was used as an electrical equivalent model of a lithium battery. The battery charge/discharge test and model verification were performed using four C-rate of 0.25C, 0.5C, 0.75C, and 1C. The proposed battery model coefficient correction algorithm was applied to two battery models, The error rate of the discharge characteristics and the transient state characteristics is 2.13% at the maximum.

Sensitivity Experiment of Surface Reflectance to Error-inducing Variables Based on the GEMS Satellite Observations (GEMS 위성관측에 기반한 지면반사도 산출 시에 오차 유발 변수에 대한 민감도 실험)

  • Shin, Hee-Woo;Yoo, Jung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2018
  • The information of surface reflectance ($R_{sfc}$) is important for the heat balance and the environmental/climate monitoring. The $R_{sfc}$ sensitivity to error-induced variables for the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) retrieval from geostationary-orbit satellite observations at 300-500 nm was investigated, utilizing polar-orbit satellite data of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI), and the radiative transfer model (RTM) experiment. The variables in this study can be cloud, Rayleigh-scattering, aerosol, ozone and surface type. The cloud detection in high-resolution MODIS pixels ($1km{\times}1km$) was compared with that in GEMS-scale pixels ($8km{\times}7km$). The GEMS detection was consistent (~79%) with the MODIS result. However, the detection probability in partially-cloudy (${\leq}40%$) GEMS pixels decreased due to other effects (i.e., aerosol and surface type). The Rayleigh-scattering effect in RGB images was noticeable over ocean, based on the RTM calculation. The reflectance at top of atmosphere ($R_{toa}$) increased with aerosol amounts in case of $R_{sfc}$<0.2, but decreased in $R_{sfc}{\geq}0.2$. The $R_{sfc}$ errors due to the aerosol increased with wavelength in the UV, but were constant or slightly decreased in the visible. The ozone absorption was most sensitive at 328 nm in the UV region (328-354 nm). The $R_{sfc}$ error was +0.1 because of negative total ozone anomaly (-100 DU) under the condition of $R_{sfc}=0.15$. This study can be useful to estimate $R_{sfc}$ uncertainties in the GEMS retrieval.

An Empirical Study of Financial Analyst's Forecasting Activities on the Firm's Operating Performances (기업실적에 대한 재무분석가의 예측활동에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kwak, Jae-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2003
  • This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

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The Effect of Geometric Factors When Measuring Standard Count for Radioactive Iodine Thyroid Uptake Rate (표준계수 측정 시 기하학적 요인이 방사성 요오드 갑상선 섭취율에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Joo Young;Kim, Jung Yul;Oh, Ki Baek;Oh, Shin Hyun;Kim, Jae Sam;Lee, Chang Ho;Park, Hoon-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: It is certain that Radioactive iodine thyroid uptake(RAIU) rate should be measured with the standard counts considering the thyroid gland depth in enlarged thyroid patients for the variation from geometric factors. The purpose of this paper is to consider the effects of geometric factors according to detector to source distance and the effective thyroid depth on RAIU rate with experiment test. Materials and Methods: I-131 370 kBq ($10{\mu}Ci$) point source was measured by Captus-3000 thyroid uptake system (Capintec, NJ, USA) with a change Detector-Source Distance from 20 cm to 30 cm at an interval of 1 cm. And we changed the Neck phantom surface-Source Depth in the phantom with 1 cm, 2 cm, 5 cm using the neck phantom in order to reproduce the effective thyroid depth. Results: Every experimental group follows power curve as inverse square curve ($$R2{\geq_-}0.915$$). The average count rates in the case not using a phantom and the every case applied the effective thyroid depth using a phantom was not identical each other. There was significant fluctuations upon the effective thyroid depths applied the effective thyroid depth above 1 cm in $364.4 keV{\pm}10%$ energy ROI (p<0.01). There was not significant difference between the count rates of 1 cm and 2 cm in $364.4keV{\pm}20%$ and $637.1keV{\pm}6.2%$ (p=0.354, p=0.397). In assumed RAIU rate from regression equation, $364.4keV{\pm}20%$ was lower difference than $364.4keV{\pm}10%$ as 6.42% and 5.09% per 1 cm. Every change of count rate upon depth appears decreased line on Linear Regression, but the case of $284.3keV{\pm}10%$ increased only. And also, The graphs of coefficient of variation upon depth increased as straight line on every experimental group. Conclusion: The result appears that application of $364.4keV{\pm}20%$ energy ROI is more suitable for reducing error from the effective thyroid depth. And also, we can estimate the error of 20 cm should be highly reduced than 30 cm for Inverse Square Law. Therefore, If there is not information of the thyroid depth, it is considered that the error from thyroid depth can reduce through set up energy ROIs for $364.4keV{\pm}20%$, and increase Detector-Source Distances.

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Estimation on the Distribution Function for Coastal Air Temperature Data in Korean Coasts (한반도 연안 기온자료의 분포함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Shin Taek;Cho, Hongyeon;Ko, Dong Hui;Hwang, Jae Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.278-284
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    • 2014
  • Water temperature due to climate change can be estimated using the air temperature because the air and water temperatures are closely related and the water temperatures have been widely used as the indicators of the environmental and ecological changes. It is highly necessary to estimate the frequency distribution of the air and water temperatures, for the climate change derives the change of the coastal water temperatures. In this study, the distribution function of the air temperatures is estimated by using the long-term coastal air temperature data sets in Korea. The candidate distribution function is the bi-modal distribution function used in the previous studies, such as Cho et al.(2003) on tidal elevation data and Jeong et al.(2013) on the coastal water temperature data. The parameters of the function are optimally estimated based on the least square method. It shows that the optimal parameters are highly correlated to the basic statistical informations, such as mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient. The RMS error of the parameter estimation using statistical information ranges is about 5 %. In addition, the bimodal distribution fits good to the overall frequency pattern of the air temperature. However, it can be regarded as the limitations that the distribution shows some mismatch with the rapid decreasing pattern in the high-temperature region and the some small peaks.

Estimation of Forest Biomass for Muju County using Biomass Conversion Table and Remote Sensing Data (산림 바이오매스 변환표와 위성영상을 이용한 무주군의 산림 바이오매스추정)

  • Chung, Sang Young;Yim, Jong Su;Cho, Hyun Kook;Jeong, Jin Hyun;Kim, Sung Ho;Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.4
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    • pp.409-416
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    • 2009
  • Forest biomass estimation is essential for greenhouse gas inventories and terrestrial carbon accounting. Remote sensing allows for estimating forest biomass over a large area. This study was conducted to estimate forest biomass and to produce a forest biomass map for Muju county using forest biomass conversion table developed by field plot data from the 5th National Forest Inventory and Landsat TM-5. Correlation analysis was carried out to select suitable independent variables for developing regression models. It was resulted that the height class, crown closure density, and age class were highly correlated with forest biomass. Six regression models were used with the combination of these three stand variables and verified by validation statistics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias. It was found that a regression model with crown closure density and height class (Model V) was better than others for estimating forest biomass. A biomass conversion table by model V was produced and then used for estimating forest biomass in the study site. The total forest biomass of the Muju county was estimated about 8.8 million ton, or 128.3 ton/ha by the conversion table.

Forecasting Power of Range Volatility According to Different Estimating Period (한국주식시장에서 범위변동성의 기간별 예측력에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.237-255
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    • 2011
  • This empirical study is focused on practical application of Range-Based Volatility which is estimated by opening, high, low, closing price of overall asset. Especially proper forecasting period is what I want to know. There is four useful Range-Based Volatility(RV) such as Parkinson(1980; PK), Garman and Klass(1980; GK) Rogers and Satchell(1991; RS), Yang and Zhang(2008; YZ). So, four RV of KOPSI 200 index during 2000.5.22-2009.9.18 was used for empirical test. The emprirical result as follows. First, the best RV which shows the best forecasting performance is PK volatility among PK, GK, RS, YZ volatility. According to estimating period forcasting performance of RV shows delicate difference. PK has better performance in the period with financial crisis of sub-prime mortgage loan. if not, RS is better. Second, almost result shows better performance on forecasting volatility without sub-prime mortgage loan period. so we can say that forecasting performance is lower when historical volatiltiy is comparatively high. Finally, I find that longer estimating period in AR(1) and MA(1) model can reduce forecasting error. More interesting point is that the result shows rapid decrease form 60 days to 90 days and there is no more after 90 days. So, if we forecast the volatility using Range-Based volaility it is better to estimate with 90 trading period or over 90 days.

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The Comparative Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Exponential and Inverse Exponential Distribution (지수 및 역지수 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 무한고장 신뢰도 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, we were proposed the reliability model with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, were employed. Analysis of failure, using real data set for the sake of proposing the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution property. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the inverse exponential distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Estimation and assessment of natural drought index using principal component analysis (주성분 분석을 활용한 자연가뭄지수 산정 및 평가)

  • Kim, Seon-Ho;Lee, Moon-Hwan;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.565-577
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to propose a method for computing the Natural Drought Index (NDI) that does not consider man-made drought facilities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to estimate the NDI. Three monthly moving cumulative runoff, soil moisture and precipitation were selected as input data of the NDI during 1977~2012. Observed precipitation data was collected from KMA ASOS (Korea Meteorological Association Automatic Synoptic Observation System), while model-driven runoff and soil moisture from Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC Model) were used. Time series analysis, drought characteristic analysis and spatial analysis were used to assess the utilization of NDI and compare with existing SPI, SRI and SSI. The NDI precisely reflected onset and termination of past drought events with mean absolute error of 0.85 in time series analysis. It explained well duration and inter-arrival time with 1.3 and 1.0 respectively in drought characteristic analysis. Also, the NDI reflected regional drought condition well in spatial analysis. The accuracy rank of drought onset, termination, duration and inter-arrival time was calculated by using NDI, SPI, SRI and SSI. The result showed that NDI is more precise than the others. The NDI overcomes the limitation of univariate drought indices and can be useful for drought analysis as representative measure of different types of drought such as meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts.

Estimation of Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of Cracked Specimen Under Mixed-mode Loads (혼합모드 하중을 받는 균열시편의 피로균열진전거동 평가)

  • Han, Jeong Woo;Woo, Eun Taek;Han, Seung Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.7
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    • pp.693-700
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    • 2015
  • To estimate the fatigue crack propagation behavior of compact tension shear (CTS) specimen under mixed-mode loads, crack path prediction theories and Tanaka's equation were applied. The stress intensity factor at a newly created crack tip was calculated using a finite element method via ANSYS, and the crack path and crack increment were then obtained from the crack path prediction theories, Tanaka's equation, and the Paris' equation, which were preprogrammed in Microsoft Excel. A new method called the finite element crack tip updating method (FECTUM) was developed. In this method, the finite element method and Microsoft Excel are used to calculate the stress intensity factors and the crack path, respectively, at the crack tip per each crack increment. The developed FECTUM was applied to simulate the fatigue crack propagation of a single-edge notched bending (SENB) specimen under eccentric three-point bending loads. The results showed that the number of cycles to failure of the specimen obtained experimentally and numerically were in good agreement within an error range of less than 3%.