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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

The Effect of Customer Satisfaction on Corporate Credit Ratings (고객만족이 기업의 신용평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, In-soo;Chun, Myung-hoon;Yu, Jung-su
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2012
  • Nowadays, customer satisfaction has been one of company's major objectives, and the index to measure and communicate customer satisfaction has been generally accepted among business practices. The major issues of CSI(customer satisfaction index) are three questions, as follows: (a)what level of customer satisfaction is tolerable, (b)whether customer satisfaction and company performance has positive causality, and (c)what to do to improve customer satisfaction. Among these, the second issue is recently attracting academic research in several perspectives. On this study, the second issue will be addressed. Many researchers including Anderson have regarded customer satisfaction as core competencies, such as brand equity, customer equity. They want to verify following causality "customer satisfaction → market performance(market share, sales growth rate) → financial performance(operating margin, profitability) → corporate value performance(stock price, credit ratings)" based on the process model of marketing performance. On the other hand, Insoo Jeon and Aeju Jeong(2009) verified sequential causality based on the process model by the domestic data. According to the rejection of several hypotheses, they suggested the balance model of marketing performance as an alternative. The objective of this study, based on the existing process model, is to examine the causal relationship between customer satisfaction and corporate value performance. Anderson and Mansi(2009) proved the relationship between ACSI(American Customer Satisfaction Index) and credit ratings using 2,574 samples from 1994 to 2004 on the assumption that credit rating could be an indicator of a corporate value performance. The similar study(Sangwoon Yoon, 2010) was processed in Korean data, but it didn't confirm the relationship between KCSI(Korean CSI) and credit ratings, unlike the results of Anderson and Mansi(2009). The summary of these studies is in the Table 1. Two studies analyzing the relationship between customer satisfaction and credit ratings weren't consistent results. So, in this study we are to test the conflicting results of the relationship between customer satisfaction and credit ratings based on the research model considering Korean credit ratings. To prove the hypothesis, we suggest the research model as follows. Two important features of this model are the inclusion of important variables in the existing Korean credit rating system and government support. To control their influences on credit ratings, we included three important variables of Korean credit rating system and government support, in case of financial institutions including banks. ROA, ER, TA, these three variables are chosen among various kinds of financial indicators since they are the most frequent variables in many previous studies. The results of the research model are relatively favorable : R2, F-value and p-value is .631, 233.15 and .000 respectively. Thus, the explanatory power of the research model as a whole is good and the model is statistically significant. The research model has good explanatory power, the regression coefficients of the KCSI is .096 as positive(+) and t-value and p-value is 2.220 and .0135 respectively. As a results, we can say the hypothesis is supported. Meanwhile, all other explanatory variables including ROA, ER, log(TA), GS_DV are identified as significant and each variables has a positive(+) relationship with CRS. In particular, the t-value of log(TA) is 23.557 and log(TA) as an explanatory variables of the corporate credit ratings shows very high level of statistical significance. Considering interrelationship between financial indicators such as ROA, ER which include total asset in their formula, we can expect multicollinearity problem. But indicators like VIF and tolerance limits that shows whether multicollinearity exists or not, say that there is no statistically significant multicollinearity in all the explanatory variables. KCSI, the main subject of this study, is a statistically significant level even though the standardized regression coefficients and t-value of KCSI is .055 and 2.220 respectively and a relatively low level among explanatory variables. Considering that we chose other explanatory variables based on the level of explanatory power out of many indicators in the previous studies, KCSI is validated as one of the most significant explanatory variables for credit rating score. And this result can provide new insights on the determinants of credit ratings. However, KCSI has relatively lower impact than main financial indicators like log(TA), ER. Therefore, KCSI is one of the determinants of credit ratings, but don't have an exceedingly significant influence. In addition, this study found that customer satisfaction had more meaningful impact on corporations of small asset size than those of big asset size, and on service companies than manufacturers. The findings of this study is consistent with Anderson and Mansi(2009), but different from Sangwoon Yoon(2010). Although research model of this study is a bit different from Anderson and Mansi(2009), we can conclude that customer satisfaction has a significant influence on company's credit ratings either Korea or the United State. In addition, this paper found that customer satisfaction had more meaningful impact on corporations of small asset size than those of big asset size and on service companies than manufacturers. Until now there are a few of researches about the relationship between customer satisfaction and various business performance, some of which were supported, some weren't. The contribution of this study is that credit rating is applied as a corporate value performance in addition to stock price. It is somewhat important, because credit ratings determine the cost of debt. But so far it doesn't get attention of marketing researches. Based on this study, we can say that customer satisfaction is partially related to all indicators of corporate business performances. Practical meanings for customer satisfaction department are that it needs to actively invest in the customer satisfaction, because active investment also contributes to higher credit ratings and other business performances. A suggestion for credit evaluators is that they need to design new credit rating model which reflect qualitative customer satisfaction as well as existing variables like ROA, ER, TA.

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The Effects of Brand Extension of Terrestrial Broadcasting Channels on Parent Brand Evaluation: Focusing on Brand Extended Channel Evaluation, Pre-Brand Extension Parent Brand Evaluation, Perceived Fit, Brand Portfolio Quality Variance, and Perceived Number of Brand Extensions (지상파채널의 브랜드 확장이 모 브랜드 평가에 미치는 영향: 확장된 채널 브랜드 평가, 확장 전 모 브랜드 평가, 적합성, 브랜드 포트폴리오 품질 변량, 브랜드 확장 수에 대한 지각을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Sun-Hee;Baek, Sang-Ki;Chang, Byeng-Hee;Yun, Hae-Jin;Moon, Sung-Chul
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.61
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    • pp.28-51
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    • 2013
  • The present study analyzed the effects of brand extension on the existing parent brand by applying the media brand extension model which previous studies had suggested based on consumer based brand equity model. Based on previous studies, the present study constructed a research model in which pre-brand extension parent brand evaluation, brand portfolio quality variance, perceived number of brand extensions, perceived fit between parent brand and brand extended channel, and brand extended channel evaluation are supposed to affect post-brand extension brand extension evaluation, and tested the media brand extension feedback effects model through structural equation modeling. The analysis results show that pre-brand extension parent brand evaluation, brand portfolio quality variance, perceived fit, and brand extended channel evaluation affect post-brand extension parent brand evaluation while the effect of perceived number of brand extensions is not significant.

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Effect of Urban Planning on Spatial Equity - An Analysis on the Accessibility Change to Urban Cultural Facilities by Income Class Factor in the Daejeon Metropolitan City Using GIS - (도시계획사업이 공간적 형평성에 미치는 효과 - GIS를 이용한 대전광역시 도로건설사업의 소득계층간 접근성 변화 분석 -)

  • Leem, Youn-Taik;Seo, Chang-Woo;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2012
  • As the quality of life grows, the role of cultural facilities in urban areas is becoming more important. However, due to various reasons, the location of these facilities shows the geographical imbalance between urban regions. Even though provision of road network can improve this kind of urban problem, in many countries, the provision of urban infrastructure plays a role which is magnifies the cultural gap between regions and socio-economic classes. The findings of this study are as follows. First of all, the inequality of accessibility to cultural facilities is shown over the period. Cross-sectional data shows that the higher the income of a region, the higher the accessibility index(AI) of the zone to cultural facilities at any time. Next, the provision of road network contributes the improvement of AI of high income region. Finally the provision of new facilities has a tendency that these kind of facilities are located to make AI of high income zone better. It means that the decision making by city government intensifies the geographical inequality. This result would be very useful in the decision making process for determining the number and the location of cultural facilities and other similar urban infrastructure as well. Also it will be helpful for the selection of optimal location which considered not only physical distances but also social equalities.

An Analysis on Expanding Construction Insurance and Estimating Necessary Budget (건설공사보험 확대 당위성 및 예산소요 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Myeongsoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzes necessity of expanding construction insurance and estimates required budget. Construction insurance is obliged by National Contract Law and Local Contract Law to protect projet owners and contractors from any unexpected construction risk such as financial losses in construction process. Currently the contracts of design-build and alternate-bid projects as well as PQ project, which are greater than 20 billion won, require the contractors to provide construction insurances in Korea. Insurance premiums are borne by the public project owner. Those contractors whose contract volume is less than 20 billion won burden all risks of projects at their cost. This causes equity problem. Because small-and-medium contractors are discriminated against large contractors since insurance-obliged projects are performed by large contractors and insurance premiums are borne by the public project owner. On the other hands, in all engineering projects, regardless of volume, insurance premiums are borne by the project owner. Therefore current regulation has to be improved, by expanding to all public projects. The average ratio of unobliged projects is 46%, in recent 3 years, prime cost of insurance companies is estimated 0.2%. Moreover considering risks of each construction type, prime cost of unobliged works is estimated as 0.13%. Hence additional necessary budget is estimated to be 2.09 billion won if total volume of public work is 3.5 trillion won. And 2.39 billion won is derived if total volume of public projects is 4 trillion won.

A Study on Profitability of Power Plant for Landfill Gas (매립가스 자원화를 위한 가스엔진 발전의 수익성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, O-U;Lee, Jeong-Il
    • 한국산학경영학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.147-170
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    • 2006
  • Landfill gas is a mixture of methane and carbon dioxide produced by the bacterial decomposition of organic wastes, and it is considered to produce bad smells and pollute the environment. Economic trials and the developments of landfill gas, as an alternative energy resource, become known at the recent years, Resource development of landfill gas, which is managed by Korea up to now, is for the most part generation using gas engine. Medium BTU and High BTU are considered for the power generation as well. Most income of generation using gas engine is selling charge through a power plant. Expecting to manage the power plant for up to 10 years, the analysis based on revenue and expenditure shows when the unit price is 65.2 Won and the operating rate reaches 90%, it is possible to be into the black in 2012 without considering additional financial expense, It was also analyzed that the profit at a unit price of 85 Won under the anticipated rising unit price by the operating rate of 71% is larger than at the operating rate of 90% under limited unit price of 65.2 Won. It means to manage the power plant at a unit price of 65.2 Won and the operating rate must be higher than 90% for economic logicality. If we assume that the operating rate is 90% and it increases the unit price, the unit price must be higher than 85 Won for the management of a power plant. Analysis of changing a unit price, however, might be expected to have a gradual rise of prices. If there is no price rising and additional income related to CDM(Clean Development Mechanism) and emission trading upon Kyoto protocol, the management of a power plant using gas engine will get financial difficulties because of many operating expenses. However, since landfill gas is considered as a worthy energy resource for the guarantee of sustainable development and for the equity between recent generation and future generation, the development of it must be accomplished by the government's additional supporting and efforts under the interest of all stakeholder who are involved.

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Debt Issuance and Capacity of Korean Retail Firms (유통 상장기업들의 부채변화에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hwan;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The aim of this paper is to investigate the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory (the cost of financing increases with asymmetric information) among Korean retail firms from the perspective of debt capacity. According to the Pecking-order theory, a firm's first preference is to use internal funds for its capital needs, its next preference is the issuance of debt, and its last preference is the issuance of equity; this is due to the information asymmetry problem between existing shareholders and investors. However, prior empirical studies, such as Lemmon and Zender (2010), argue that the entire sample test for the Pecking-order theory could be misleading due to the different levels of debt issuance capability of each of the individual firms; in fact, they confirm that the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory improves after taking into account the differences in debt capacity of the U.S. firms they examined. This paper implements a case study approach among Korean retail firms to examine the relationship between debt capacity and the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - This study uses the sample of public retail firms on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) from the time period of 1990 to 2013. We gather related financial and accounting statements from the financial information firm WISEfn. Credit rating information is provided by the Korea Investor Service. We employ the models of Lemmon and Zender (2010) and Son and Kim (2013) to measure a firm's debt capacity. Their logit models use the rating dummy variable as a dependent variable and incorporate other firm characteristics as independent variables to estimate debt capacity. To test the Pecking-order theory, we adopt variants of the financing deficit model of Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999). In the test of the Pecking-order theory, we consider all of the changes in total debt obligations, current debt obligations, and long-term debt obligations. Results - Our main contribution to the literature is our confirmation of the predicted relationship between debt capacity and the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory among Korean retail firms. The coefficients on financing deficits become greater as a firm's debt capacity improves. This is consistent with the results of Lemmon and Zender (2010). The coefficients on the square of the financing deficits are also negative for the firms in the largest debt capacity group, which is also consistent with the predictions in prior literature. Conclusions - This study takes a case study approach by examining Korean retail firms. We confirm that the Pecking-order theory explains the capital structure of retail firms more appropriately, after taking into account the debt capacity of each firm. This result suggests the importance of debt capacity consideration in the testing of the Pecking-order theory. Our result also implies that there has been a potential underestimation of the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory in existing studies.

Determinants of Fund Investment Flows: Asymmetry between Fund Inflows and Fund Outflows (펀드투자 자금흐름의 결정요인: 유입자금과 유출자금은 대칭적인가?)

  • Shin, Inseok;Cho, Sungbin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.33-69
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    • 2014
  • We investigate determinants of fund investment flows using Korean equity investment funds. Unlike previous studies which analyzed net-flows (inflow minus outflow), we analyze fund investment inflows and outflows separately that should properly reflect investors' fund selection and redemption decision. We find similar effects of past return, fund age on net-flows to existing studies based on US market data. The analysis of determinants of inflows shows that inflows are related to past return, fund age and sales fee as net-flows. In contrast, outflows are found to behave quite differently from inflows. Apparently, asymmetry exists between fund investment inflows and outflows at the Korean fund selection market. Specifically, high past returns increase fund investment inflows while increase, rather than decrease, fund outflows. Moreover, 'convexity' is detected both in inflows and outflows: higher past returns accelerate outflows as well as inflows. Effects of sales fee also differ between inflows and outflows. In the 'affiliated' fund sample, sales fee is negatively related to inflows while positively related to outflows. In the 'unaffiliated' fund sample, sales fee is positively related to inflows, but no significant relationship exists with outflows. Empirical findings of this paper imply that the rational investor's fund selection view cannot provide a consistent explanation of the Korean fund selection market. In particular, the positive and convex relationship between past returns and fund outflows is inconsistent with the rational investor view. The fact that investor's fund investment appears to display 'disposition effect', which has been reported by studies of individual investors' stock investment behaviour suggests that the behavioral finance view should be a part of explanation for the Korean fund selection market. In addition, the strikingly different patterns between the 'affiliated' funds and the 'unaffiliated' funds, imply that brokers' incentive structure is another prevailing factor for fund investment flows.

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Relationship among Brand Value Propositions, Brand Attitude and Brand Attachment considering Consumer Involvement (소비자 관여도를 고려한 브랜드 가치 제공, 브랜드 태도, 브랜드 애착의 관계)

  • Kim, Gyu-Bae;Kim, Byoung-Goo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Many variables are needed for brand loyalty such as brand attitude, brand attachment, brand love and brand commitment. Thus, we should manage these all variables successfully for strong and differentiated brand equity. This study aims to identify the process of how the brand value propositions affect the brand attitude and brand attachment. This study specially conceptualizes that not only utilitarian value and hedonic value influence the brand attitude but also hedonic value influences the brand attachment. This study focuses on the moderating role of consumer involvement such as cognitive involvement and affective involvement in the causal relationships among brand value propositions, brand attitude, and brand attachment. Research design, data, and methodology - The five hypotheses were proposed and tested in this study. Three hypotheses were about the relationship among the brand value propositions(utilitarian value and hedonic value), brand attitude, and brand attachment. The other two hypotheses were about the moderating effect on consumer involvement in the causal relationships among brand value propositions, brand attitude, and brand attachment. Research data were collected from the students of universities located in Daejeon-Si and Chungchungnam-Do. For the purpose of test the hypotheses empirically, the 208 responses were used. We utilized SPSS18.0 for statistical analysis such as reliability test, factor analysis, and regression analysis. Results - The results show that the utilitarian value and hedonic value have influence on the brand attitude positively. The results also show that the hedonic value has influence on the brand attachment positively. We found that there is a moderating effect on the cognitive involvement in the relationship between the utilitarian value and the brand attitude. However, there is no moderating effect on the affective involvement in the relationship between the hedonic value and brand attachment. In Summary, 4 of 5 hypotheses in this study were supported and 1 hypothesis was not supported. We should identify the reason why the hypothesis 5, the moderating effect of the affective involvement in the relationship between the hedonic value and brand attachment, was rejected in this empirical analysis. Conclusions - Both the utilitarian value and the hedonic value that propose a brand are important for brand attitude. Specially, the hedonic value is important for brand attachment. Companies should provide the consumers with both the utilitarian value and the hedonic value in a balanced way for their favorable brand attitude and strong brand attachment. In the retail industry, the balance between the utilitarian value and the hedonic value is important in that there are many product brands and store brands providing consumers with various benefit and values. Also, there are possibilities that the causal relationships among brand value propositions, brand attitude and brand attachment are moderated by consumer involvement such as cognitive involvement and affective involvement. Companies should understand and consider consumer involvement for their efficient and effective brand management decision making.

Estimation of Proper Infrastructure Scale for Transportation Investment (교통 SOC 적정투자규모 산정방안)

  • Chung, Sung Bong;Namkung, Baekkyu;Park, Shin Hyoung;Kim, Dongsun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.1347-1356
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    • 2015
  • Since 1970 transportation investment has been made rapidly, however the doubt on duplication and overinvestment of transportation facility also has been brought up. Thus the necessity for reasonable estimation of investment scale increases. In this paper various researches related to this subject are reviewed and categorized according to their methodologies, namely, the methodology using international comparison, trend of investment policy and endogenous economy development model. Based on these methodologies, AHP is applied to calculate proper investment scale. The result shows that the budget for satisfying the investment scale is estimated about 19.51~24.49 trillion won. This value is 4.28~9.26 trillion won higher than the proper investment budget established in National Fiscal Management Plan. In the future, it is necessary to establish systematic and efficient transportation investment plan by developing transportation policy model which can assess the economic feasibility, social equity and environmental soundness etc. at the same time.