• Title/Summary/Keyword: epidemic infectious disease

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PULSE VACCINATION STRATEGIES IN A INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODEL WITH A NONMONOTONE INCIDENCE RATE AND TWO DELAYS

  • Zhang, Hong;Chen, Lansun
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.27 no.3_4
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    • pp.779-793
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    • 2009
  • This paper deals with a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and crowded incidence rate. Moreover, the case of vertical and horizontal transmission is considered. By using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, the exact infection-free periodic solution of the SEIRS model is obtained. Further, by employing the comparison arguments, we prove that under the condition that $R_*$ < 1 the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive, and that under the condition that $R^*$ > 1 the disease is uniformly persistent, which means that after some period of time the disease will become endemic.

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A study of epidemic model using SEIR model (SEIR 모형을 이용한 전염병 모형 예측 연구)

  • Do, Mijin;Kim, Jongtae;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2017
  • The epidemic model is used to model the spread of disease and to control the disease. In this research, we utilize SEIR model which is one of applications the SIR model that incorporates Exposed step to the model. The SEIR model assumes that a people in the susceptible contacted infected moves to the exposed period. After staying in the period, the infectee tends to sequentially proceed to the status of infected, recovered, and removed. This type of infection can be used for research in cases where there is a latency period after infectious disease. In this research, we collected respiratory infectious disease data for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERSCoV). Assuming that the spread of disease follows a stochastic process rather than a deterministic one, we utilized the Poisson process for the variation of infection and applied epidemic model to the stochastic chemical reaction model. Using observed pandemic data, we estimated three parameters in the SIER model; exposed rate, transmission rate, and recovery rate. After estimating the model, we applied the fitted model to the explanation of spread disease. Additionally, we include a process for generating the Exposed trajectory during the model estimation process due to the lack of the information of exact trajectory of Exposed.

A Study on Information System for Safe Transportation of Emergency Patients in the Era of Pandemic Infectious Disease (팬데믹 감염병 시대에 안전이송을 위한 정보시스템 연구)

  • Seungyong Kim;Incheol Hwang;Dongsik Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.839-846
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: To secure the safety of firefighters who are dispatched to emergency activities for patients with suspected infectious diseases during an epidemic, and to identify the current status of suspected infectious disease patients by region based on the information collected at the site, and manage firefighting infectious diseases that can be controlled and supported I want to develop a system. Method: Develop a smartphone app that can classify suspected infectious disease patients to check whether an infectious disease is suspected, and develop a disposable NFC tag for patient identification to prevent infection from suspected infectious disease patients. Develop a management system that collects and analyzes data related to emergency patients with suspected infectious disease input from the field and provides them to relevant business personnel to evaluate whether the transport of emergency patients with suspected infectious disease is improved. Result: As a result of the experiment, it was possible to determine whether an infectious disease was suspected through the algorithm implemented in the smartphone app, and the retransfer rate was significantly reduced by transferring to an appropriate hospital. Conclusion: Through this study, the possibility of improving emergency medical services by applying ICT technology to emergency medical services was confirmed. It is expected that the safety of paramedics will be actively secured.

Documentational Study and Observation from the View of Hyungsang Medicine on Bangpungtongseong-san (방풍통성산(防風通聖散)의 문헌(文獻) 및 형상의학적(形象醫學的) 고찰(考察))

  • Suck, Min-Hee;Kim, Jun-Hong;Lee, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2008
  • The following conclusions were obtained from the studies on Bangpuntongseongsan both from the documents and Hyungsang medicine. Bangpungtongseong-san was created by Yu Wan-so to relieve both interior and exterior of disease from the pathogenic fire, and it cures wind syndrome and dry syndrome. Bangpungtongseong-san is of light herbal combination and it works in the upper part of the body and is mainly applied to skin disease. Perspiration without harming the exterior and purgation without hurting the interior shows that it is not a severe prescription belonging to meditation therapy. It is mostly used for curing the disease of internal heat caused by over drinking and consuming heavy food, and it has special relationship with Yangmyung meridian. It is mentioned in the chapters of spirit, head, face, eye, ear, nose, throat, skin, hair, prescription, wind, dryness, fire, internal damage, epidemic infectious disease, carbuncle and cellulitis, ulceration, and pediatrics of ${\ulcorner}$Donguibogam${\lrcorner}$. It is usually applied to those who belong to Yangmyung type of the six meridian types or wind type, who has excessive heat, people with red complexion, reddened nose, pimples over the face and nose, coarse heel, loss of hair due to wind-heat, and to those who tend to have dandruff. Through examination over the cases treated with Hyungsan medicine, Bangpungtongseong-san was found efficacious in bloodshot eyes, brandy nose, loss of hair, various skin problems, tetanus, acute alcoholism, paralysis of hand and foot, deafness, and tinnitus.

Service Model Standardization of Risk Mitigation on Livestock Pandemic based on Network (네트워크 기반에서 가축 유행병 위기 완화 서비스 모델 표준화)

  • Kim, Dong Il;Chung, Hee Chang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.450-452
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we present a standard model of livestock epidemic service in the field of smart livestock, which is emerging as an important issue in smart agriculture. By using the network to identify the global livestock epidemic disease risk and provide relevant models to service users, it is expected that it will actually provide economic benefits to livestock owners and ultimately help the national livestock industry economy. In order to apply the standard livestock epidemic service standard model and the livestock infectious disease crisis mitigation standard model sharing method that is presented in conjunction with ICT to the standards in the domestic and international agricultural and livestock industries in the future, continuous research will be carried out.

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Service Model Standardization of Risk Mitigation on Livestock Pandemic based on Network (네트워크 기반에서 가축 유행병 위기 완화를 위한 개념 모델 표준화)

  • Kim, Dong Il;Chung, Hee Chang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.12-14
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we present a standard conceptual model of livestock epidemic service in the field of smart livestock, which is emerging as an important issue in smart agriculture. By using the network to identify the global livestock epidemic disease risk and provide relevant models to service users, it is expected that it will actually provide economic benefits to livestock owners and ultimately help the national livestock industry economy. In order to apply the standard livestock epidemic service standard model and the livestock infectious disease crisis mitigation standard model sharing method that is presented in conjunction with ICT to the standards in the domestic and international agricultural and livestock industries in the future, continuous research will be carried out.

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A study on the spread of the foot-and-mouth disease in Korea in 2010/2011 (2010/2011년도 한국 발생 구제역 확산에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Jihyun;Oh, Changhyuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2014
  • Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and fatal viral livestock disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals domestic and wild and the FMD outbreak in Korea in 2010/2011 was a disastrous incident for the country and the economy. Thus, efforts at the national level are put to prevent foot-and-mouth disease and to reduce the damage in the case of outbreak. As one of these efforts, it is useful to study the spread of the disease by using probabilistic model. In fact, after the FMD epidemic in the UK occurred in 2001, many studies have been carried on the spread of the disease using a variety of stochastic models as an effort to prepare future outbreak of FMD. However, for the FMD outbreak in Korea occurred in 2010/2011, there are few study by utilizing probabilistic model. This paper assumes a stochastic spatial-temporal susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model for the 2010/2011 FMD outbreak to understand spread of the disease. Since data on infections of FMD disease during 2010/2011 outbreak of Aniaml and Plant Quarantine Agency and on the livestock farms from the nationwide census in 2011 of Statistics Korea do not have detail informations on address or missing values, we generate detail information on address by randomly allocating farms within corresponding Si/Gun area. The kernel function is estimated using the infection data and by using simulations, the susceptibility and transmission of the spatial-temporal stochastic SIR models are determined.

Properties of a Social Network Topology of Livestock Movements to Slaughterhouse in Korea (도축장 출하차량 이동의 사회연결망 특성 분석)

  • Park, Hyuk;Bae, Sunhak;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.278-285
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    • 2016
  • Epidemiological studies have shown the association between transportation of live animals and the potential transmission of infectious disease between premises. This finding was also observed in the 2014-2015 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Korea. Furthermore, slaughterhouses played a key role in the global spread of the FMD virus during the epidemic. In this context, in-depth knowledge of the structure of direct and indirect contact between slaughterhouses is paramount for understanding the dynamics of FMD transmission. But the social network structure of vehicle movements to slaughterhouses in Korea remains unclear. Hence, the aim of this study was to configure a social network topology of vehicle movements between slaughterhouses for a better understanding of how they are potentially connected, and to explore whether FMD outbreaks can be explained by the network properties constructed in the study. We created five monthly directed networks based on the frequency and chronology of on- and off-slaughterhouse vehicle movements. For the monthly network, a node represented a slaughterhouse, and an edge (or link) denoted vehicle movement between two slaughterhouses. Movement data were retrieved from the national Korean Animal Health Integrated System (KAHIS) database, which tracks the routes of individual vehicle movements using a global positioning system (GPS). Electronic registration of livestock movements has been a mandatory requirement since 2013 to ensure traceability of such movements. For each of the five studied networks, the network structures were characterized by small-world properties, with a short mean distance, a high clustering coefficient, and a short diameter. In addition, a strongly connected component was observed in each of the created networks, and this giant component included 94.4% to 100% of all network nodes. The characteristic hub-and-spoke type of structure was not identified. Such a structural vulnerability in the network suggests that once an infectious disease (such as FMD) is introduced in a random slaughterhouse within the cohesive component, it can spread to every other slaughterhouse in the component. From an epidemiological perspective, for disease management, empirically derived small-world networks could inform decision-makers on the higher potential for a large FMD epidemic within the livestock industry, and could provide insights into the rapid-transmission dynamics of the disease across long distances, despite a standstill of animal movements during the epidemic, given a single incursion of infection in any slaughterhouse in the country.

Traditional Unani Medicine in Flu-like Epidemics and COVID-19 during Pregnancy: A Literary Research

  • Sultana, Arshiya;Khanam, Marhaba;Rahman, Khaleequr;Sumbul, Sumbul
    • CELLMED
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.20.1-20.23
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    • 2021
  • Background: The pandemic COVID-19 caused by a novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 has spread like a forest fire. This disease may have serious consequences for pregnant women. Presently, no specific drugs or vaccines exist to battle this disease and researches are underway. Unani medicine has a unique role in prevention and management during epidemics. Here, we reviewed the overview of COVID-19 infection and pregnancy, concept and practices in Unani medicine for flu-like epidemics in general and pregnancy, and safety of Unani drugs for the prevention and treatment of mild symptomatic cases of COVID-19 during pregnancy. Methodology: Unani classical texts and pharmacopoeia were meticulously explored for concepts and practices for flu-like epidemic diseases. Further, we browsed scientific databases such as PubMed, Scopus and others for an overview, epidemics and Unani medicine, effectiveness and safety of Unani drugs in COVID-19 and pregnancy. Results: Unani medicine includes prevention and management of flu-like epidemic include quarantine and isolation, aromatic herbal drugs fumigation and spraying for environmental disinfection, ilaj bid tadbir for health promotion and use of health-protecting drugs and symptom-specific drugs in general and related to pregnancy. Lahsun, asalussus, behidana, banafsha, zanjabeel, unnab, etc are in use since antiquity for the prevention and treatment of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic pregnant women during infectious and epidemic diseases. Conclusion: Currently, the aforementioned plants are proven for antiviral, antioxidant, immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory activities, probably useful in the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, scientific studies have provided new insight into the mechanism underlying the therapeutic effect of Unani medicines that are safe in pregnancy.

Research on Application of SIR-based Prediction Model According to the Progress of COVID-19 (코로나-19 진행에 따른 SIR 기반 예측모형적용 연구)

  • Hoon Kim;Sang Sup Cho;Dong Woo Chae
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2024
  • Predicting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge due to the complexity of the disease and its evolving nature. This study presents an integrated approach using the classic SIR model for infectious diseases, enhanced by the chemical master equation (CME). We employ a Monte Carlo method (SSA) to solve the model, revealing unique aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. The study, a first of its kind in Korea, adopts a step-by-step and complementary approach to model prediction. It starts by analyzing the epidemic's trajectory at local government levels using both basic and stochastic SIR models. These models capture the impact of public health policies on the epidemic's dynamics. Further, the study extends its scope from a single-infected individual model to a more comprehensive model that accounts for multiple infections using the jump SIR prediction model. The practical application of this approach involves applying these layered and complementary SIR models to forecast the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in small to medium-sized local governments, particularly in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. The results from these models are then compared and analyzed.