• 제목/요약/키워드: epidemic disease

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Beyond SARS-CoV-2: Lessons That African Governments Can Apply in Preparation for Possible Future Epidemics

  • Oboh, Mary Aigbiremo;Omoleke, Semeeh Akinwale;Imafidon, Christian Eseigbe;Ajibola, Olumide;Oriero, Eniyou Cheryll;Amambua-Ngwa, Alfred
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제53권5호
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    • pp.307-310
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    • 2020
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has placed unprecedented pressure on healthcare systems, even in advanced economies. While the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa compared to other continents has so far been low, there are concerns about under-reporting, inadequate diagnostic tools, and insufficient treatment facilities. Moreover, proactiveness on the part of African governments has been under scrutiny. For instance, issues have emerged regarding the responsiveness of African countries in closing international borders to limit trans-continental transmission of the virus. Overdependence on imported products and outsourced services could have contributed to African governments' hesitation to shut down international air and seaports. In this era of emerging and re-emerging pathogens, we recommend that African nations should consider self-sufficiency in the health sector as an urgent priority, as this will not be the last outbreak to occur. In addition to the Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement fund (US$600 million) provided by the World Bank for strengthening health systems and disease surveillance, each country should further establish an epidemic emergency fund for epidemic preparedness and response. We also recommend that epidemic surveillance units should create a secure database of previous and ongoing pandemics in terms of aetiology, spread, and treatment, as well as financial management records. Strategic collection and analysis of data should also be a central focus of these units to facilitate studies of disease trends and to estimate the scale of requirements in preparation and response to any future pandemic or epidemic.

전염병 구획 모형에 대한 시스템다이내믹스 접근법: 국내 MERS 전염 SEIR 모형의 해석 및 변환 (System Dynamics Approach to Epidemic Compartment Model: Translating SEIR Model for MERS Transmission in South Korea)

  • 정재운
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2018
  • 수학모형의 한 유형인 구획모형은 전염병의 확산처럼 순차적인 이벤트나 프로세스로 구성된 동적 시스템의 변화를 분석하는 데 폭넓게 활용되어 왔다. 구획모형은 상자와 화살표로 표현되는 구획과 구획 간 관계로 구성된다. 이러한 원리는 stock과 flow로 구성되는 시스템다이내믹스(SD)의 모델링 원리와 비슷하다. 두 모형 모두 미분방정식을 이용하여 구조화된다. 이와 같은 두 모형 간 변환 가능성을 이용하여 국내 MERS 전염의 특징을 분석한 최근 연구의 SEIR 참조모형을 SD 관점에서 해석 변환한다. 변환된 SEIR 모형(Model 2)은 참조모형(Model 1)의 재현 결과와 비교하여 동일한 시뮬레이션 결과를 나타내었다. 본 연구는 전염병 구획모형의 구축에 도식과 미분방정식을 이용한 SD 방법론의 활용에 대한 인사이트를 제공하며, 변환된 SD 모형은 다른 전염병을 위한 참조모형으로 활용 가능하다.

PULSE VACCINATION STRATEGIES IN A INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODEL WITH A NONMONOTONE INCIDENCE RATE AND TWO DELAYS

  • Zhang, Hong;Chen, Lansun
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • 제27권3_4호
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    • pp.779-793
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    • 2009
  • This paper deals with a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and crowded incidence rate. Moreover, the case of vertical and horizontal transmission is considered. By using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, the exact infection-free periodic solution of the SEIRS model is obtained. Further, by employing the comparison arguments, we prove that under the condition that $R_*$ < 1 the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive, and that under the condition that $R^*$ > 1 the disease is uniformly persistent, which means that after some period of time the disease will become endemic.

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1978년도 도열병 대발생의 요인분석 (Interpretation on the Epidemic Outbreak of Rice Blast Disease in Korea, 1978.)

  • 이은웅;박순직
    • 한국작물학회지
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1979
  • In order to investigate the causes of epidemic out break of rice blast disease in 1978, investigations were undertaken in respect of climatic conditions, variety, cultural practice and plant pathology. During 1978, especially in August at heading time, it was higher temperature and humidity, higher frequency and amount of rainfall, lower amount of sunshine and solar radiation than less blast infested years. Nitrogen content in rice plant was higher than previous years. Acreage increase of semi-dwarf varieties brought about a result of proportional increase of new blast races which are able to infect the semi-dwarf varieties. It was concluded that those conditions mentioned above might have caused the result of severe neck blast disease in rice varieties in Korea, 1978.

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MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF AN "SIR" EPIDEMIC MODEL IN A CONTINUOUS REACTOR - DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES

  • El Hajji, Miled;Sayari, Sayed;Zaghdani, Abdelhamid
    • 대한수학회지
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    • 제58권1호
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    • pp.45-67
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, a mathematical dynamical system involving both deterministic (with or without delay) and stochastic "SIR" epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate in a continuous reactor is considered. A profound qualitative analysis is given. It is proved that, for both deterministic models, if ��d > 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if ��d ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Concerning the stochastic model, the Feller's test combined with the canonical probability method were used in order to conclude on the long-time dynamics of the stochastic model. The results improve and extend the results obtained for the deterministic model in its both forms. It is proved that if ��s > 1, the disease is stochastically permanent with full probability. However, if ��s ≤ 1, then the disease dies out with full probability. Finally, some numerical tests are done in order to validate the obtained results.

시설하우스에서 Corynespora cassiicola에 의해 발생하는 오이 갈색무늬병 (A Target Leaf Spot Disease Caused by Corynespora cassiicola on Cucumber Cultivated in Green House)

  • 권미경;양광열;조백호
    • 식물병연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.121-125
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    • 2004
  • 2000년도와 2001년도에 남부지방(구례, 별교, 영암)의 시설 내 오이재배지에서 갈색무늬병에 피해가 심하였다. 잎에서 전형적인 수침상 병반이 생기고 초기에 황색 halo를 지닌 갈색반점이 생긴 후 점차 불규칙하고 큰 병반으로 진전되어 때때로 낙엽을 유발하였다. 감염잎으로부터 분리한 병원균은 분생자경에 연쇄상 혹은 단일 분생포자를 형성하였고 분생포자는 거의 무색에서 올리브 갈색 내지는 갈색을 띠었으며 모양은 7-11개의 위격벽을 지닌 원통형,역곤봉형, 직립형, 만곡형 등이었다. 또한 분리 병원균의 ITS영역의 염기서열은 Corynespora cassciicola와 일치하였다. 형태적, ITS영역 분석을 기초로 분리된 병원균은 C. cassiicola로 동정하였다. 병원균의 생육은 3$0^{\circ}C$ Czapek Solution Agar 배지에서 가장 좋았으며, 발병환경 조사 결과 3$0^{\circ}C$에서 18시간 이상 습전시간이 유지될 때 발병이 높아, 고온과 식물의 긴 습전기간이 발병량의 증가를 가져오는 요인이었다. 또한 국내 품종들을 대상으로 오이갈색무늬병에 대한 감수성과 저항성 품종들을 선발하였다.

확률적 방법에 기반한 질병 확산 모형의 구축 (Development of epidemic model using the stochastic method)

  • 류수락;최보승
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구는 전염병의 확산 과정을 설명하기 위한 질병 확산 모형을 구축 하고자 하였다. 질병의 확산 과정은 결정적인 과정과 확률적인 과정으로 크게 분류할 수 있다. 대부분의 연구가 질병의 확산 과정을 결정적 과정으로 움직인다고 가정을 하고 상미분방정식을 이용하여 모형을 구축하였다. 본 연구에서는 질병 확산 모형인 SIR (Suspectible - Infectious - Recovered) 모형을 기반으로 하여 질병의 확산 예측 모형을 구현하고자 하였다. 최소제곱법을 이용하여 모수를 추정한 후, 상미분방정식을 이용한 결정적 모형 방법과 더불어 Gillespie가 제안한 방법에 기반하여 확률적인 과정을 따르는 모형 적합을 함께 시도하였다. 본 연구에서 소개된 방법들은 질병관리본부의 2001년 1월부터 2002년 3월까지의 국내 말라리아 주별 발병자 수 자료를 이용하여 모형 적합을 시도 하였으며, 그 결과 구현된 모형이 실제 질병의 확산과정을 잘 설명하였다.

온병학(溫病學)의 막원(膜原) 개념과 그 실제적 활용에 대한 고찰 (A Study on the concept of makwon in onbyeonghak(溫病學) and its practical application)

  • 김상현
    • 대한한의학원전학회지
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Doctors' discussions on Makwon's warm-disease are studied in an effort to contemplate a way to use the outcome in practice. Method : Doctors' discussions on Makwon as found in researches and texts are categorized into physical and pathologica, and their symptoms and treatments are analyzed. Result & Conclusion : Many doctors of warm disease explained that, in terms of the physical aspect, Makwon is closely related to stomach. Some doctors also mentioned its relationship with triple engizers, defense and nutrient qi, and spleen. In terms of pathology, most of the doctors considered Makwon to be a hiding place of foul turbidity pathogen, and explained that a treatment has to be applied before the disease pattern worsens. Diverse syndroms of Makwonwere introduced. Their discussions mainly revolved around warm and epidemic or category of dampness-heat diseases. Alternating chills and fever was also mentioned often, and generalized pain, nausea, tongue of thick and slimy fur symptoms are shown. Ouguk's Dalwonneum is used as the basic treatment. The most effective prevention method of the incubation of pathogen are the symptoms that allows the analysis of the mechanism of disease. Therefore, a good utilization method of resolve turbidity with aroma or spices may contribute to the prevention of Makwon-disease in terms of cultural aspect.

조선 시대 활인서 연구 - 연혁 및 상비처방을 중심으로 (A study of the Office for Saving Lives (活人署), a government office in the Joseon, through its history and use of a standing prescription)

  • 박훈평
    • 한국의사학회지
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2020
  • The Office for Saving Lives (活人署) (OSL) was the office in charge of the treatment and relief of the poor in the Joseon Dynasty. This study disputes prior scholarship on the OSL by analyzing the use of a ready-made prescription and by focusing on the personality of the OSL's medical institutions. The work of the three government offices, the Office of Great Mercy (大悲院) (OGM), which was the formal office of OSL, the Office of Benefiting People (惠民署) and the Office of Aiding Life (濟生院), overlapped in the area of relief of the common people. But OGM was different from the other two in that it was not a purely medical office, had no educational function, and did not manage medicine. By analyzing a standing prescription, this article argues: 1) Heojun's influence on the composition of a standing prescription is absolute. 2) Epidemic warm disease (溫疫) was a major social problem in terms of emergency medical care at the time. 3) In the late Joseon Dynasty, the treatment of epidemic warm diseases became more sophisticated than the previous era.