• 유통과학연구
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.49-57
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• 2014

Purpose - The world now recognizes environmental disruption as a serious issue when regarding growth-oriented strategies; therefore, environmental preservation issues become pertinent. Consequently, green distribution is continuously emphasized. However, studying the prediction and association of distribution and the environment is insufficient. Most existing studies about green distribution are about its necessity, detailed operation methods, and political suggestions; it is necessary to study the distribution service industry and environmental service industry together, for green distribution. Research design, data, and methodology - ARIMA (auto-regressive moving average model) was used to predict the environmental service and distribution service industries, and the Granger Causality Test based on VAR (vector auto regressive) was used to analyze the causal relationship. This study used 48 quarters of time-series data, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 3rd quarter in 2013, about each business type's production index, and used an unchangeable index. The production index about the business type is classified into the current index and the unchangeable index. The unchangeable index divides the current index into deflators to remove fluctuation. Therefore, it is easy to analyze the actual production index. This study used the unchangeable index. Results - The production index of the distribution service industry and the production index of the environmental service industry consider the autocorrelation coefficient and partial autocorrelation coefficient; therefore, ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)4 and ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,1)4 were established as final prediction models, resulting in the gradual improvement in every production index of both types of business. Regarding the distribution service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 114.35, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 123.48. Moreover, regarding the environmental service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 110.95, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 111.67. In a causal relationship analysis, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. Conclusions - This study predicted the distribution service industry and environmental service industry with the ARIMA model, and examined the causal relationship between them through the Granger causality test based on the VAR Model. Prediction reveals the seasonality and gradual increase in the two industries. Moreover, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. This study contributed academically by offering base line data needed in the establishment of a future style of management and policy directions for the two industries through the prediction of the distribution service industry and the environmental service industry, and tested a causal relationship between them, which is insufficient in existing studies. The limitations of this study are that deeper considerations of advanced studies are deficient, and the effect of causality between the two types of industries on the actual industry was not established.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2007년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.101-104
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• 2007

All of noise prediction model have it's own features in the case of modeling conditions, so it is very important to know the features of each model case by case for a proper modeling, especially using at the Environmental Impact Assessment. For prediction of highway traffic noise and abating the noise by barriers, two kinds of prediction model, HW-NOISE, KHTN(Korea Highway Traffic Noise) has been mainly used in Korea. In this study, the features of these models were described at the same conditions. The properties of sound power from a road, diffraction characteristics from a barrier, sound pressure level decaying in each model were investigated. Using the results, it will be anticipated that the proper using of prediction models in the works of highway noise abating.

• 한국환경독성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국환경독성학회 2001년도 추계심포지움 및 학술발표회:환경오염의 생체지표를 이용한 위해성 평가의 최근 기법
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• pp.89-89
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• 2001

• 대기
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.115-124
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• 2020

The Northern Hemisphere extratropical prediction skill of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) is examined for January 2019. The real-time prediction skill, evaluated with mean squared skill score (MSSS) of 30-90°N geopotential height field at 500 hPa (Z500), is ~8 days in the troposphere. The MSSS of Z500 considerably decreases after 3 days mainly due to the increasing eddy errors. The eddy errors are largely explained by the eddy-phased errors with minor contribution of amplitude errors. In particular, planetary-scale eddy errors are considered as a main reason of rapidly increasing errors. It turns out that such errors are associated with the blocking highs over North Pacific (NP) and Euro-Atlantic (EA) regions. The model overestimates the blocking highs over NP and EA regions in time, showing dependence of blocking predictability on blocking initializations. This result suggests that the extratropical prediction skill could be improved by better representing blocking in the model.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.211-227
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 한국기상청의 장기예측시스템 현업모형인 GloSea5의 성층권 극소용돌이 강화사례에 대한 예측성을 진단 및 검증하였다. 진단에 사용된 통계량은 이상상관계수(ACC, Anomaly Correlation Coefficient)와 평균제곱근 예측성(MSSS, Mean Squared Skill Score)으로, 1991-2010년간 발생한 14개 극소용돌이 강화사례에 대한 GloSea5의 예측성한계는 ACC를 기준으로 13.6일, MSSS를 기준으로 18.5일로 나타났다. 모형의 평균제곱오차(MSE, Mean Squared Error)의 각 성분을 정량적으로 비교분석한 결과, 예측성을 저하시키는 가장 큰 요인은 맴돌이(에디)오차로, 그 중 에디의 위상오차가 전체 예측오차의 큰 부분을 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 극소용돌이 현상이 수평적으로 큰 규모를 가지는 만큼 동서파수 1의 에디와 관련한 오차가 더 작은 규모의 에디에 비해 가장 크게 예측오차에 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 분석한 사례들에 대하여 GloSea5의 대류권 순환에 대한 예측성은 성층권 예측성과는 큰 관련이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 단순히 GloSea5 모형이 성층권-대류권 접합과정을 잘 모의하지 못하기 때문에 나타난 결과로 유추할 수 있다. 하지만, 극소용돌이 강화에 의한 영향에 비해 대류권에서 내부변동성의 절대적인 크기가 종종 크게 나타난다는 점을 감안하면, 모형에서 성층권-대류권 접합을 잘 모의하고 있더라도 극소용돌이 강화 자체만의 영향이 뚜렷하게 나타나지 않았을 가능성 또한 간과하면 안 될 것이다.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2018

The number of researches on the mechanical properties of cemented sand and gravel (CSG) materials and the application of the CSG Dam has been increased. In order to explain the technical scheme of strength prediction model about the artificial neural network, we obtained the sample data by orthogonal test using the PVA (Polyvinyl alcohol) fiber, different amount of cementing materials and age, and established the efficient evaluation and prediction system. Combined with the analysis about the importance of influence factors, the prediction accuracy was above 95%. This provides the scientific theory for the further application of CSG, and will also be the foundation to apply the artificial neural network theory further in water conservancy project for the future.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.969-980
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• 2017

Galloping is one of the most serious vibration problems in transmission lines. Power lines can be extensively damaged owing to aerodynamic instabilities caused by ice accretion. In this study, the accident probability induced by galloping phenomenon was analyzed using logistic regression analysis. As former studies have generally concluded, main factors considered were local weather factors and physical factors of power delivery systems. Since the number of transmission towers outnumbers the number of weather observatories, interpolation of weather factors, Kriging to be more specific, has been conducted in prior to forming galloping accident estimation model. Physical factors have been provided by Korea Electric Power Corporation, however because of the large number of explanatory variables, variable selection has been conducted, leaving total 11 variables. Before forming estimation model, with 84 provided galloping cases, 840 non-galloped cases were chosen out of 13 billion cases. Prediction model for accidents by galloping has been formed with logistic regression model and validated with 4-fold validation method, corresponding AUC value of ROC curve has been used to assess the discrimination level of estimation models. As the result, logistic regression analysis effectively discriminated the power lines that experienced galloping accidents from those that did not.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.301-310
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• 2022

Accurate prediction of mixed ground conditions ahead of a tunnel face is of vital importance for safe excavation using tunnel boring machines (TBMs). Previous studies have primarily focused on electrical resistivity surveys from the ground surface for geotechnical investigation. In this study, an FE (finite element) numerical model was developed to simulate electrical resistivity surveys for the prediction of risky mixed ground conditions in front of a tunnel face. The proposed FE model is validated by comparing with the apparent electrical resistivity values obtained from the analytical solution corresponding to a vertical fault on the ground surface (i.e., a simplified model). A series of parametric studies was performed with the FE model to analyze the effect of geological and sensor geometric conditions on the electrical resistivity survey. The parametric study revealed that the interface slope between two different ground formations affects the electrical resistivity measurements during TBM excavation. In addition, a large difference in electrical resistivity between two different ground formations represented the dramatic effect of the mixed ground conditions on the electrical resistivity values. The parametric studies of the electrode array showed that the proper selection of the electrode spacing and the location of the electrode array on the tunnel face of TBM is very important. Thus, it is concluded that the developed FE numerical model can successfully predict the presence of a mixed ground zone, which enables optimal management of potential risks.

• 환경생물
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2008

A mathematical model for the synergistic interaction of physical and chemical environmental agents was suggested for quantitative prediction of irreversibly damaged cells after combined exposures. The model took into account the synergistic interaction of agents and was based on the supposition that additional effective damages responsible for the synergy are irreversible and originated from an interaction of ineffective sublesions. The experimental results regarding the irreversible component of radiation damage of diploid yeast cells simultaneous exposed to heat with ionizing radiation ($^{60}Co$) or UV light (254 nm) are presented. It was shown that the cell ability of the liquid holding recovery decreased with an increase in the temperature, at which the exposure was occurred. A good correspondence between experimental results and model prediction was demonstrated. The importance of the results obtained for the interpretation of the mechanism of synergistic interaction of various environmental factors is discussed.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.653-661
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• 2007

Overseas construction projects tend to be more complex than domestic projects, being exposed to more external risks, such as politics, economy, society, and culture, as well as more internal risks from the project itself. It is crucial to have an early understanding of the project condition, in order to be well prepared in various phases of the project. This study compares a structural equation model and multiple regression analysis, in their capacity to predict cost performance of international construction projects. The structural equation model shows a more accurate prediction of cost performance than does regression analysis, due to its intrinsic capability of considering various cost factors in a systematic way.