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http://dx.doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2018.39.3.211

Prediction Skill of GloSea5 model for Stratospheric Polar Vortex Intensification Events  

Kim, Hera (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Son, Seok-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Song, Kanghyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Kim, Sang-Wook (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Kang, Hyun-Suk (Earth System Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Science)
Hyun, Yu-Kyung (Earth System Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Science)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean earth science society / v.39, no.3, 2018 , pp. 211-227 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study evaluates the prediction skills of stratospheric polar vortex intensification events (VIEs) in Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) model, an operational subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The results show that the prediction limits of VIEs, diagnosed with anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS), are 13.6 days and 18.5 days, respectively. These prediction limits are mainly determined by the eddy error, especially the large-scale eddy phase error from the eddies with the zonal wavenumber 1. This might imply that better prediction skills for VIEs can be obtained by improving the model performance in simulating the phase of planetary scale eddy. The stratospheric prediction skills, on the other hand, tend to not affect the tropospheric prediction skills in the analyzed cases. This result may indicate that stratosphere-troposphere dynamic coupling associated with VIEs might not be well predicted by GloSea5 model. However, it is possible that the coupling process, even if well predicted by the model, cannot be recognized by monotonic analyses, because intrinsic modes in the troposphere often have larger variability compared to the stratospheric impact.
Keywords
polar vortex; stratosphere; prediction skills; GloSea5; subseasonal to seasonal;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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