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The Effect of External Shocks on Food Price in Indonesia: A VECM Analysis

  • Nurvitasari, Ari;Nasrudin, Nasrudin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.7
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology - Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah's exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah's rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term. The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia's food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

Identifying Cryptocurrency Regulation Effects on Bitcoin Price : An Empirical Case in South Korea

  • Shamba, Kudzai;Jeon, Seong-Min
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2018.04a
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    • pp.187-190
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    • 2018
  • The study examines the effects of the regulation on cryptocurrency market, investigating a case in South Korea. As South Korea has one of the largest market share of the cryptocurrency market for the time being, its regulation in South Korea affected the entire markets around the World. This research in progress will use the method of difference-in-differences to assess the effects of regulation to the market. The findings indicate that there is a significant reduction of the Bitcoin price and the price volatility was significantly reduced by about 58% after the regulation of the cryptocurrency market. More so the trading activity indicates a huge decline after regulation was implemented.

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A study on the MVNO Wholesale Price in Competitive Communication Service Market (경쟁적인 통신서비스 시장에서 MVNO 도매대가 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Bae, Khee-Su;Jeon, Heung-Joo
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.217-231
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    • 2012
  • In the past, companies should make enormous facility investment and acquire a right to do business in order to join communication markets, but now they can do business without important facilities, such as communication networks. Such a movement to ease regulations about companies which want to newly join the communication industry is expected not only to change a competition frame of the mobile communication market but also to greatly affect the entire communication industry. Through this study aiming to look into a way to calculate a reasonable wholesale price related to the government's introduction of the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) system, I came up with a following result. I applied the operating profit percentage and the ratio of operating gain to cost to the cost plus model and retail minus model, respectively, to calculate the wholesale price and found that when I calculated with the cost plus model applying the operating profit percentage, I could get the highest wholesale price. On the other hand, I got the lowest wholesale price with the retail minus model by applying the operating profit percentage. Division of expenses and calculation of profit percentage are important factors in calculating the wholesale price and such results are expected to help accurate calculation of the MVNO wholesale price.

A Study on Reversals after Stock Price Shock in the Korean Distribution Industry

  • Jeong-Hwan, LEE;Su-Kyu, PARK;Sam-Ho, SON
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to confirm whether stocks belonging to the distribution industry in Korea have reversals, following large daily stock price changes accompanied by large trading volumes. Research design, data, and methodology: We examined whether there were reversals after the event date when large-scale stock price changes appeared for the entire sample of distribution-related companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from January 2004 to July 2022. In addition, we reviewed whether the reversals differed depending on abnormal trading volume on the event date. Using multiple regression analysis, we tested whether high trading volume had a significant effect on the cumulative rate of return after the event date. Results: Reversals were confirmed after the stock price shock in the Korean distribution industry and the return after the event date varied depending on the size of the trading volume on the event day. In addition, even after considering both company-specific and event-specific factors, the trading volume on the event day was found to have significant explanatory power on the cumulative rate of return after the event date. Conclusions: Reversals identified in this paper can be used as a useful tool for establishing a trading strategy.

Economic Benefits of Implementing National Health Insurance by Measurement of Changes in the Consumer's Surplus (전국민 의료보험 실시에 따른 사회전체 순편익 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Joong;Lee, Hae-Jong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.22 no.3 s.27
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    • pp.398-405
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    • 1989
  • A change in the consumer's surplus was measured in order to evaluate the social benefit to be derived from expanding health insurance to the entire population. The most refined and correct way to measure a project's net benefit to society is to determine a change in the consumer's surplus. Benefits from introducing the health insurance program to the uninsured people can be classified into two elements. The first is the pricing-down effect(E1) which results from applying the insurance price system, which is lower than the actual price, to the uninsured patients. The second effect(E2) is a decrease in actual payment because an insured patient pays only a portion of the total medical bill(copayment). We collected medical price information from the data banks of 93 hospitals, and obtained information of medical utilization by referring to the results of other research and from data published by the Korean Medical Insurance Societies. The total net benefit was estimated as \214 billion, comprising the first effect(E1) of \57 billion and the second effect(E2) of \157 billion. The price elasticity of physician visits is less than that of hospital admissions: however, benefits from the increase in physician visits are greater than those from hospital admissions because there are considerably more of physician visits than hospital admissions. The sensitivity analysis also shows the conclusion that expansion of the health insurance program to the entire population would result in a positive net benefit. Therfore, we conclude that the National Health Insurance Program is socially desirable.

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An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Stock Price, Interest Rate, Price Index and Housing Price using VAR Model (VAR 모형을 이용한 주가, 금리, 물가, 주택가격의 관계에 대한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Gyeong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

An Study Regarding the Effects of "Lowest Price Guarantee Policy" on Consumers' Preference of Stores (최저가격보상제도가 소매점 선호도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Seung-Ho;Kim, Keun-Bae
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.183-201
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    • 2005
  • The lowest price guarantee policy or price-matching guarantee is the pricing policy that promises to compensate more than the price difference if a consumer finds a lower price for the identical model he or she purchased and submits a certain proof. Most of Korean large discount stores emphasize their competitive price level by adopting the lowest price guarantee policy so that the entire Korean distribution industry is deeply influenced by the policy. The article is the study regarding the effects of the lowest price guarantee policy in Korean unique industry environments. The study investigated the effects of the policy on consumers' preferences of stores. By using the conjoint measurement model, it identified the main effects and interaction effects between the policy and other independent variables. The results showed the significant effects of the policy on consumers' preference of stores and identified the interaction effects between the distance from the residence and the policy, and between overall store price level and the policy.

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The Impact of Stock-to-Flow Price Ratio on Housing Starts (재고-신규주택 상대가격이 주택공급에 미치는 영향)

  • Ji, Kyu Hyun;Choi, Sung Ho
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2020
  • This thesis investigates relationship between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in Seoul metropolitan form 2008 year to 2019 year. The paper tests the relationship through two time-series models such as a vector error correction model and Dynamic Panel regression model. The model results show evidence of positive correlation between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in the long run. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, we test the explanatory power of PBR on housing starts. The result of VECM confirms that one unit uprising PBR raises up apartment construction by 7.4%. This result supports that PBR is a major factor in choosing a start of housing construct. Base on the result of empirical model, We also suggest that the market self-regulation function of housing providers is operating in the entire metropolitan area market.

Effects of OPEC Announcements in Different Periods of Oil Price Fluctuation (사건연구 방법론을 이용한 OPEC 생산량 발표의 원유시장 영향 분석)

  • Bae, Jee Young;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.451-472
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    • 2017
  • An OPEC production announcement is a major source of supply disruption that has a significant impact on the international crude oil market. In this study, the effects of OPEC's announcements are analyzed using event study methodology. Considering the oil price volatility and structural changes in the oil price, we divide the entire period into three periods and analyze the impact of OPEC's production quota announcements, including 'cut', 'hike', and 'maintain'. As a result of the analysis, we observe that the degree and direction of abnormal returns differ according to the announcements in each period. In addition, by subdividing oil price surge and plunge period into two sections, we analyze the effect of OPEC's 'maintain' announcements. During the oil price plunge period, the amount of abnormal returns was significant. This study provides policy implications for oil trading strategies and for the impact of OPEC announcements during periods of oil price fluctuation.

In Search of an Efficient Market Mechanism for a Digital Economy: Virtual Field Experiments on Posted-price Markets and Auctions (디지털 경제에서의 효율적 시장 메커니즘에 대한 연구: 가격부착 시장과 경매에 대한 가상 실험)

  • Beomsoo Kim
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.135-158
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    • 2000
  • In recent years, many retail businesses jumped on the Internet auction bandwagon and paid substantially high fees to learn and develop proper business strategies for this new environment. Unlike what most businesses in the real world presume, this research shows that discriminatory-price ascending-bid auctions in a digital economy might be not very beneficial for the sellers on the Internet, if sellers sell the identical digital products through both a typical posted-price market and an auction. Using an extensive technology infrastructure along with suitable incentives and rules for market agents, we found that a discriminatory-price ascending-bid auction, which is the most popular auction mechanism on the Internet, serves consumers better than it does the sellers or producers in the digital economy. That is, the average prices for digital goods in these auctions are substantially lower than the prices in a posted-price market. This shows that it is not so wise for sellers to jump on the bandwagon of Internet auctions, if there is a market place with posted-price mechanisms which sells comparable items, or if a seller does not have special advantages or strategies in this new market institution. Electronic market mechanisms provide powerful means of understanding and measuring consumer characteristics including willingness-to-pay and other demographics for sellers or producers. Many concern that sellers may extract the entire surplus from the market by using customization on the Internet, thus consumers will be worse off in this digital economy. We found that these sellers who can customize their products and prices fail to capture the whole consumers surplus and cannot exercise a monopoly. One major explanation for this phenomenon is that the competition among the sellers prohibits them from charging prices according to customers demand for each product, where switching from one seller to another is not so difficult for the customers, and reselling products among the buyers are prohibited.

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